Where Can I Find An In-Depth Account of the Nagorno-Karbakh Negotiations?

[Noitartst]

I'm an American, and have been seeking more information for a while. I have a lot of questions, as the following demonstrates, and would love someone, or some source, to enlighten me on them:

What's up with this St. Petersburg proposal? Does Armenia's embrace of it mean they've found in it a basis to negotiate the timing and sequence of events leading up to the proposed referendum? Is Azerbaijan upset with it because somehow would predetermine the nature of the referendum before talks on that subject begin? Does all this involve Armenia's apparent offer to withdraw from the occupied territories in return for a date for the referendum? Why hasn't Armenia gotten the necessary security guarantees it seeks in return for concessions? In the months preceding, Azerbaijan sought intervention from mediators after Armenia didn't respond satisfactorily to some proposals offered; was St. Petersburg the mediators' response? Why did Armenia turn Azerbaijan's offer down? What was at stake?

Is there an article that can explain all this, and more? I haven't found a good, solid play-by-play of the negotiations, and I want to, because I want to know. What does Azerbaijan's negotiating team really think is possible as a result of the talks? Does it truly think it can achieve a solution short of full independence for Nagorno-Karabakh? If so, why? How? Does the Azerbaijani leadership think war is a legitimate option, or is that just saber-rattling?

When people say Nagorno-Karabakh could just be solved if the US and Russia got together on it, then it would be settled, what do they mean by that? Doesn't they mean picking a side, and and telling the other, "Tough luck"? If they ever did, wouldn't it mean telling that to Azerbaijan, not unlike how the West did it to Serbia over Kosovo? That sort of thing.

I sent the preceding, essentially, in email form to a clutch of foreign policy think tanks, but got nary a bite; I hope here is different.

[Noitartst]

Re: Where Can I Find An In-Depth Account of the Nagorno-Karbakh Negotiations?

I guess I don't know how this forum works, but after two weeks and 67 people who have seen this so far, I would really think in an Armenian political forum somebody would have an idea of what I looking for. I really am seeking more information, but I hope I didn't some off as prejudiced, or something.

[Joseph]

Re: Where Can I Find An In-Depth Account of the Nagorno-Karbakh Negotiations?

I guess I don't know how this forum works, but after two weeks and 67 people who have seen this so far, I would really think in an Armenian political forum somebody would have an idea of what I looking for. I really am seeking more information, but I hope I didn't some off as prejudiced, or something.

Quite honestly, the only information you'll find is either partisan or very superficial. The talks themselves are held behind closed doors and they (Minsk Group) never issue press releases which only further complicates the situation.

Both sides, left to their own devices, merely issue their own theories of the negotiations based on very scant information.

From what I can gather, the latest proposals envision a stage by stage Armenian pullback from regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh proper (including all of Kelbajar and most of Lachin minus a small corridor to Armenia) and a return of all refugees. In return the Azeris would open their border to trade and transport. After a few years or so, the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh would be allowed a referendum to vote on their future. But here is the rub, it has never been determined if they will be able to vote on independence or joining Armenia. It might be that they can only vote on autonomy within Azerbaijan or to join Azerbaijan altogether. Nobody outside of the Minsk Group knows the answer to this.

The impasse is due to the Azeri refusal to let the Armenians vote on independence or attachment to Armenia in a referendum.

[Joseph]

Re: Where Can I Find An In-Depth Account of the Nagorno-Karbakh Negotiations?

Quite honestly, the only information you'll find is either partisan or very superficial. The talks themselves are held behind closed doors and they (Minsk Group) never issue press releases which only further complicates the situation.

Both sides, left to their own devices, merely issue their own theories of the negotiations based on very scant information.

From what I can gather, the latest proposals envision a stage by stage Armenian pullback from regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh proper (including all of Kelbajar and most of Lachin minus a small corridor to Armenia) and a return of all refugees. In return the Azeris would open their border to trade and transport. After a few years or so, the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh would be allowed a referendum to vote on their future. But here is the rub, it has never been determined if they will be able to vote on independence or joining Armenia. It might be that they can only vote on autonomy within Azerbaijan or to join Azerbaijan altogether. Nobody outside of the Minsk Group knows the answer to this.

The impasse is due to the Azeri refusal to let the Armenians vote on independence or attachment to Armenia in a referendum.

Additionally, Armenia rightly requests all issues to be finalized in one tidy package and not stage by stage. Should the Armenians comply with a stage by stage settlement, there is no way to enforce or ensure the Azeris will live up to their end of the agreement. For instance, say the Armenian release the Fizuli region, the Azeris might choose to merely move in troops to the region (which is already in defiance of any subsequent agreement as all of the current frontline regions would have to be demilitarized) and still refuse to open their borders or comply with a referendum etc.

[Joseph]

Re: Where Can I Find An In-Depth Account of the Nagorno-Karbakh Negotiations?

As far as I can tell there is no website or document that clearly spells out the proposed Agreement. That is the long and short of it. The OSCE Minsk Group has been very ineffective and both combatants have upheld the truce for the most part since 1994 because they are biding their time or because they don't feel strong enough yet to attack with any success. Both sides feel that time plays into their hands.