Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

[Haykakan]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Hakob i think Iran entering the CU would be a dream scenario for Armenia and i hope it happens but i think this whole thawing of relations between Iran and the west is designed to take that option away.
Gokor you should remember that like Russia-the western powers also have levers they can use to make the smaller NATO members do as they like. Loans and trade deals can be used or you can just put a puppet up as a leader..the options are many.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Evidence to you? I could care less if you believe me or not, and Im not wasting a second of my life proving anything to u I could care less fool.

You have just repeated (but in a more stupid way, of course) exactly what I said: "An Armenian says it, so it must be true - so no need for the time consuming and difficult task of providing evidence".

[Hakob]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Russia's annexation of Crimea has defacto eliminated Ukraine's eligibility to enter NATO. (territorial disputes). If NATO wants revenge for losing Ukraine they could help either Georgia or Azerbaijan eliminate their territorial disputes and have them join. NATO supporting Georgians directly with intel and logistics against the Russia is way too risky in terms of a starting a large regional war(WW3) and fairly unlikely of succeeding. Assisting Azerbaijan with intel and logistics against Artsakh could be viewed as much less confrontational and more likely to succeed. Maybe the increased in sniping is a signal to Russia and CSTO.
After this episode in Crimea Russia is on its toes in regards to a NATO response in it back yard. In my opinion Russia is much more likely to respond to a war in Artsakh now compared to before the chaos in Ukrainian.

It would be the biggest stupidity by Baku to try anything now. Azerbaijan in not Ukraine. Besides , NATO would be very reluctant to accept any country that has so much problems with ethnic, corruption and democracy issues . Have you noticed how after Kosovo independence NATO cut the influence of religious hardliners there? You'd have to be pretty desperate to get involved with somebody like Azerbaijan that intensely. Does anyone find it strange of Israel's interest at joining CU? I cannot find any explanation yet. But anyway. Soon or later Baku is going to turn to CU for several reasons. Then as Armenia being a permanent member will have good opportinities of dictating some terms beneficial for us.

[gokorik]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

It would be the biggest stupidity by Baku to try anything now.

Agreed.

[Federate]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Some news & thoughts on the Kessab attack.

- The attackers are primarily foreign jihadists that come from a range of places such as Tunisia, Turkey, Chechnya etc. They belong to 3 different groups of Islamist rebels and are led by Jabhat al-Nusra aka Al-Qaeda's Syrian branch. They are vicious fighters and among the most battle-hardened and experienced ones.

- This attack reportedly has been 7 months in the making and has a level of strategy and coordination that is unprecedented in the Syrian war. It relies on attacking multiple fronts, pincer movements, taking high points and reportedly involves thousands of fighters. There is talks that the reason for this unprecedented coordination is that Turkey was involved in the planning of the attack. Syrian Army had troops posted but they were overwhelmed as is the case with most surprise attacks that involve such large scale of fighters.

- Rebels have taken over most of the directly bordering mountainous areas, the border crossing and Kessab town. A few villages and a strategic hill called Hill 45 remain under Syrian Army (SAA) control. The situation is very fluid and sometimes positions are changing by the hour. Hill 45 has changed hands 4 times in 2 days for example.

- For the first time in the conflict, Turkey is directly assisting a battle with artillery and has an almost laissez faire approach on jihadist movement at the border. They come and go from the border as they please and Syria's hands are tied on this because it can't risk fighting a war with Turkey by firing at it. Turkish hospitals at the border and elsewhere are flooded with injured militants who are often transported by Turkish ambulances.

- Heavy casualties on both sides. Minimum 100 killed on both sides with some claims that upwards of 500 rebels killed in the battle so far. Both sides have lost top leaders, one of the dead is President Assad's own cousin who was a leader of a militia in the area.

- No Armenian casualties thanks in part to the rapid evacuation that was assisted by the SAA. Unfortunately, it seems everything these people owned has been looted.

On the topic of whether Armenians staying behind to defend their village would have been wiser, considering the scale of the rebel attack it would have probably not been. Sure, the defences should have been better and maybe the entire village should have dug in. They would have resisted but eventually succumbed to the Turkish backed hordes. In that case, we'd see a slaughter of Armenian men and that would be devastating to a village such as Kessab with only a few thousand residents. I am being realistic and risk averse here. Ultimately they remain villagers against experienced militants who are better armed and trained. I recall a similar event that took place in an Alawite village called Ma'an where there was a surprise attack and instead of fleeing, the men stayed behind to fight against al-Nusra and were ultimately overwhelmed and beheaded. It would be better for Armenians to participate in the Syrian Army offensive with an actual battle plan.

There is noise of sending Armenian fighters from Karabakh to fight in Kessab and I support this on a limited scale. Not only is this defence of a native Armenian village but whoever volunteers could gain some invaluable field experience that would be useful in the next war with Azerbaijan, especially given the fact that Kessab's battle is mountainous warfare.

On the question of whether Turkey is motivated here to destroy an Armenian village, I think it is possible that destroying an Armenian village is a convenient bonus and a secondary mission. I do not doubt the Turkish government is more than pleased to be helping an offensive that gets rid of hostile Armenian villages. However, the overall goal of this offensive is to take over the last border crossing under government control and to pave the way to attack Latakia on the Syrian coast. Essentially, Turkey is supporting a jihadist offensive in order to weaken the Syrian government further and getting rid of jihadists as much as possible from its territory at the same time. The jihadists are motivated by two factors: weakening the Syrian government and destroying non-Sunni minorities which includes Christian Armenians and Alawite Syrians. We are basically unlucky enough to be in the way. Of course none of this diminishes the fact that Armenians of Kessab are once again being driven out of their homes and once again, the instigator for this is the Turkish state which has found another convenient reason to support the deportation of Armenians.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

- This attack reportedly has been 7 months in the making and has a level of strategy and coordination that is unprecedented in the Syrian war. It relies on attacking multiple fronts, pincer movements, taking high points and reportedly involves thousands of fighters. There is talks that the reason for this unprecedented coordination is that Turkey was involved in the planning of the attack. Syrian Army had troops posted but they were overwhelmed as is the case with most surprise attacks that involve such large scale of fighters.

If it happened, it will be impossible for Turkish involvement to be kept a secret for long, given the current divisions within Turkish society and within the Turkish military. Maybe the timing is prompted by the risk that Erdogan will fall soon either electorally or under the weight of all the corruption scandals. It is reported that the AK Parti is going to loose control of Antakya in the regional elections at the end of the month, so maybe the Islamists protected by Erdogan felt that it was a case of attack now or never.

As to whether Turkey has a particular animosity against Kessab, I remember being taken to see the ruins of a chapel at the edge of Kessab, close to the Turkish border. It had been built as a replacement for one that used to stand on the hill that overlooks Kessab on the Turkish side of the border and that was destroyed after 1939. The ruined Kessab chapel was a new ruin as well as being a new building. I was told that in the 1980s a group of Turkish solders, led by the local border commander, had crossed over the border and blown up the chapel. The incident had been hushed up by both governments and the Turkish commander declared to have been temporarily insane at the time (and sent to recuperate in a hospital). There were also stories of locals straying too close to the border being kidnapped and beaten up by Turkish soldiers, and of one old man who had strayed across the border by mistake being beaten to death by the Turks (the border was just a low barbed wire fence not higher than a normal field boundary).

It would be better for Armenians to participate in the Syrian Army offensive with an actual battle plan.

Except that the standard Syrian Army offensive battle plan seems to always involve the slow and complete destruction of the location being attacked. And is the border crossing that important for an attack on Latakia? When I used it, data on yearly numbers using it were on display and it was tiny, under 4000 crossings a year. Unless its very obscurity is the reason for its capture: things could be sent from Turkey easier than via the better known routes. In which case the priority should be the regaining of control of the border crossing, not the recapture of Kessab.

[HermanGerman]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Our "beloved" Turkxxxx friends from the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra have also been involved.
You can hear the guy saying it "Jabhat al Islamiya", "Ansar al-Sham" "Sham al-Islam wa Jabhat al-Nusra". For those of you who stll don't know, Jabhat al-Nusra is 100% Al-Qaeda!

Edit:
This one shows how they simply cross Turkish border. A NATO member state has no control of it's border, c'mon?!

[HermanGerman]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Looks like an Armenian church.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

This one shows how they simply cross Turkish border. A NATO member state has no control of it's border, c'mon?!

3.00 is the most interesting bit - two cars with their windows all painted over. Pity the cameraman didn't follow where they went (into Turkey?)

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Bashar al-Assad, Syria and the Armenian people

Looks like an Armenian church.

That's not the church in the middle of Kessab. You can see it in this one (but the cameraman does not go inside)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gf6YCIgfADU

Here is the border post at what must be almost at the moment of its capture - whoever was there must have just run off, there is no damage or signs of resistance. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FtvnXuUH_k

Fighting at hill 45 (or, rather, hiding behind a ditch, sticking your gun up in the air, and shooting wildly in every direction). I hope these idiots are the best the Islamists have: they don't look particularly "battle-hardened and experienced", Federate. One properly trained well-armed soldier could probably wipe them all out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pYFJqmMtlI

This is the coastline below Kessab, a dark depressing mosquito-ridden hole as I remember it. Immediately to the right is Turkey. You can't go anywhere from there, or land any boats since there is no port or even a jetty.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGTY3DdJaRE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhCeo3bEmm8

And the road back up into Kessab.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yfqFfh1NZU