Regional geopolitics

[lampron]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Who benefits from this type of propaganda ?

ANUSH SEDRAKYAN

AIISA Partner Expert
. Ambition to be a world superpower. Russia’s ambition to be a world superpower is due through two factors: firstly, providing its own cultural, economic globalization presence through economic progress in different regions, and secondly, vertically institutionalized physical presence, for which it’s necessary to prepare a public opinion both inside and outside the country. Russian propaganda considers the preparation of such opinion rather effectively for domestic audience.

Domestic situation reflection inside and outside Russia

Russian society is not aware of financial, economic and military condition both inside and outside Russia. The myth of Russia’s being a super power is being constantly exaggerated, for which there are several factors:

1. Putin’s image, which is presented as a symbol of an empire rising from ruins, as a person, who could provide second breath to the empire, and, of course, extended its borders, conquer the Crimea, and is on the threshold of taking Donbas and Lugansk. We can say, that glorification of the Soviet Union attributes by Russian TVs is within the compulsory time period of state funding for 1st and 2nd Russian TV channels.

2. Historical reality comes to fulfill the role of modern politics, as a result of which the WWII or the Great Patriotic War by Soviet naming and its victory are widely outspoken on news, TV shows, past glory of the Soviet symbolic and institutes are being restored episode by episode. The first of those institutes was the Soviet KGB, i.e. secret security, deprived of public rating.

3. Another attempt of imperialist ambitions outside the country is foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This, of course, pursues one purpose, i.e. defense of Russia’s borders. One of rare places, where it’s maintained, is Armenia-Turkey border. By considering it, it’s sometimes forgotten, that it’s former Soviet Union and NATO border. If the United States is interested in its opening, then Russia’s aspiration is to see it closed forever. Huh? So it's our collective imagination that NATO member Turkey is blockading Armenia?

Putin can’t contaminate nomenclature dictators of sovereign republics with his ambitions, who have been aware of the policy of the Soviet Union for 70 years, and tend not to trust Russia’s promises, especially when they have more or less stabile economy, rather powerful raw material resources, can satisfy global demands, realizing, that without foreign investments they are unable to stand on their feet.

- See more at: http://www.aiisa.am/ourexperts/publi....cGRuCl7v.dpuf

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

As Ara Baliozian has stated many times, after many centuries of slavery 95% of Armenians and most Armenian leaders do not have confidence in themselves

They rely on an external power for survival. Russia as the most immediate neighbor, which has an interest in Armenia from a geopolitical standpoint, which created the 'Armenian district' in 1828 on territory where Armenian were a minority is the most obvious power. Look at history

In 1919 Armenian leaders depended 100% on the French to build a state in Kilikya. The moment the French changed sides , Kilikya was finished

In 1920 Armenia was celebrating the Treaty of Sevres . The moment the "allies" started supporting Kemal, Kars, Ardahan, Igdir, Surmalu, Alexandropol...(and almost yerevan) were lost. Which brave fights do you have in mind?

You're kidding right?
I see those brave fighters and volunteers that decimated Turkish armies in Sarikamish, Nablus Palestine (not have to go into Sardsrapat etc).
Again you guys Do not get the message.
If not for several western countries, how many wars do you think Israel would win? The mighty Israeli army...
So they were wiped out in holocost, let down by Russians in Warsaw etc...
Should they think that they are not United or any bs because they could not stop Germans?
How many Jews would you find that thinks that Israel has no future without US?

Know your strengths, your weaknesses. Get the right power to back you up when you need it. But know that you at the end it comes down on you alone to build your future.

[lampron]

Re: Regional geopolitics

You're kidding right?
I see those brave fighters and volunteers that decimated Turkish armies in Sarikamish, Nablus Palestine (not have to go into Sardsrapat etc).
Again you guys Do not get the message.
If not for several western countries, how many wars do you think Israel would win? The mighty Israeli army...
So they were wiped out in holocost, let down by Russians in Warsaw etc...
Should they think that they are not United or any bs because they could not stop Germans?
How many Jews would you find that thinks that Israel has no future without US?

You confuse Armenians fighting for foreign armies with Armenians fighting for Armenia
Fighting for foreign armies only means Armenians keen to serve foreigners -- slave mentality

Sardarabad, yes, don't forget Sardarabad was Russia empire when the battle took place and it was Armenians serving in the Russian army leading in Sardarabad
Was Sardarabad a victory? The ottoman army continued marching to Baku massacring tens of thousands of Armenians along the way

[Zeytun]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Guys I started some debate here by asking a question , I believe the debate is healthy to the forum. I am not a moderator or anything but there is no need to use unnecessary words like " garbage or agent , etc..." .
As for the subject. Russia helped us not because they loved us but out of interest . In some instance Russia's interest were opposed to those of the Armenians " Operation ring", as well as giving Nakhichevan and Artsakh to the Azerbaijanis , or the role of Russia in the Armenian genocide ex :by leaving behind Armenian commanders and armies to fight alone against the ottomans ,etc...
This is all geopolitics and political interest . Russia now needs Armenia and we need them. At the same time Russia keeps that need alive by controlling Armenia's options economically, politically and militarily ( By that I don't mean that the western option is better than Russia ). Ex: Why the Artsakh issue is not resolved until now even-though we won the war ? What about the role that Russia plays in limiting the Iranian-Armenian relationships ( Iranian gas )?etc...

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

You confuse Armenians fighting for foreign armies with Armenians fighting for Armenia
Fighting for foreign armies only means Armenians keen to serve foreigners -- slave mentality

Sardarabad, yes, don't forget Sardarabad was Russia empire when the battle took place and it was Armenians serving in the Russian army leading in Sardarabad
Was Sardarabad a victory? The ottoman army continued marching to Baku massacring tens of thousands of Armenians along the way

First you ask which brave Armenian fighters were, when I answered, you now question the motives and label them as slaves.
How many slave armies have you seen fighting in solely volunteer battalions?
How many slave armies have you seen that consist of ethnic groups fighting in their territory or tactically relevant theatres in single purpose?
Would you come and fight with me if you knew that I was slave minded?
I think you trhrow statements of which you have no idea. As long as the can fit in your understanding of things.
Last thing, study your history my friend. At the time of Sardarabad there was no Russian empire. And the battle of Baku Armenians slowed down and weakened Turkish armies enough that it became impossible for them to turn south and hit Armenian republic from back and finish it.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Yes Zeytun. Debate is good indeed. and I am glad we are having it. Separating facts from fiction is very important in making decisions. Having a realistic perception of reality is the key to good decision making. I think any reader can find a good deal of information and interesting reading material in this forum. I do get very frustrated at times because I see my people making the same mistakes over and over again while disregarding the lessons we should have learned from history. Our fate is of our own making to some extent but even here, it is human nature to overestimate your own self worth and your strength and abilities. If you are really strong then you can act that way but if you are weak and you act strong then you will pay for it when someone calls your bluff. If you are strong but act weak then your opponent will underestimate you and this gives you an edge. We need to learn to be smart and make better decisions so we can get strong and stop others from manipulating us. I have no illusions about Russia. She acts in her own interests as she should. We need to understand what is in our own interest as well and then figure out how to attain those interests.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Լիբանանի համայնքներից մեկը հիացած է Ադլերից եկած նվագախմբով

ԻԳՈՐ ՄՈՒՐԱԴՅԱՆ, Քաղաքագետ
Մեկնաբանություն - 27 Օգոստոսի 2015,


Սիրիացիներն ու լիբանանցիները Իսլամական պետության հետ պատերազմում

Փորձագետների կարծիքով, եթե Իրանն էական օգնություն չտրամադրի Բաշար Ասադի ռեժիմին, ռազմաճակատը կարող է ճեղքվել, եւ Դամասկոսը կհայտնվի լուրջ սպառնալիքի տակ: Սակայն, ԱՄՆ-ն այնքան է զգուշանում Սաուդյան Արաբիայից ու Իսրայելից, որ վախեցավ Իրանի հետ հարաբերության կարգավորումից: Այս պետությունները բական խանդոտ են վերաբերվում իրանա-ամերիկյան կարգավորմանը:

Այս իրավիճակում Թուրքիան ոչնչի առաջ կանգ չի առնի Դամասկոսի ալավի ռեժիմը չեզոքացնելու համար: ԱՄՆ-ն արդեն ի վիճակի չէ կանգնեցնել թուրքերին, նրանք հաջողության կեսճանապարհին են: Ներկայում ԱՄՆ-ի առաջ միայն մեկ խնդիր է կանգնած՝ ռմբակոծել, բայց ո՞ւմ են ռմբակոծելու:

Դամասկոսում ամեն ինչ կարծես թե կայուն է, չնայած հարյուր հազարավոր փախստականներին, որոնք տեղավորվել են փոքրաթիվ հյուրանոցներում, համայնքային շենքերում, զբոսայգիներում:

Սրճարաններն ու ռեստորաններն աշխատում են, գործում է Դամասկոսի համալսարանը, որտեղ հիմնականում սուննի պրոֆեսուրան աջակցում է կառավարությանը, թեեւ իրավիճակը ներկայում այլ է, քան տոտալիտար կայուն ժամանակաշրջանում: Պրոֆեսորները համարձակ արտահայտվում են տարածաշրջանի թեմաներով, գտնելով, որ գլխավոր մեղավորները սաուդցիներն ու թուրքերն են:

Քաղաքացիները լրջորեն պատրաստվում են քաղաքի պաշտպանությանը, ասելով, թե իսլամիստներին սպասում են գերեզմաններ Դամասկոսի պատերի տակ: Թե ինչ կստացվի՝ կտեսնենք, Սիրիայում իրավիճակը միանշանակ չէ: Սիրիայի սուննիները, որոնք ապրում են խոշոր քաղաքներում, շատ են զգուշանում Իսլամական պետությունից:

Պետք է ասել, որ սիրիական զինված ընդդիմությունը, որը գերազանցապես սուննի է, գործնականում արդեն աջակցում է կառավարությանը եւ հանդես է գալիս ընդդեմ իսլամիստների: Եթե ընդդիմությունը նման դիրքորոշում չունենար, Հալեպը վաղուց ընկած կլիներ:

Սիրիացիներն ունեն նվիրված զինվորական ստորաբաժանումներ, սակայն դրանք ակնհայտորեն քիչ են: Սիրիացիներն այն կարծիքին են, որ պետք է ստեղծեն նոր բանակ, հենվելով Իրանի վրա: Սիրիացիները պատրաստ են օգտվել նաեւ եվրոպացիների օգնությունից, օրինակ՝ Ֆրանսիայի, որը դիտորդի դերում է:

Դամասկոսում սկսել են հետաքրքրվել Գերմանիայի դիրքորոշմամբ, որը կարող էր Սիրիայի վրա հենվելով մեծացնել իր ազդեցությունը Մերձավոր Արեւելքում: Բայց պատրա՞ստ է արդյոք Գերմանիան նման տեխնոլոգիաների:

Լիբանանում առայժմ խուճապ չկա, թեեւ բոլորը հասկանում են, որ Դամասկոսի անկումից հետո գալու է Բեյրութի հերթը: Լիբանանում ներկայում կա առնվազն 2 միլիոն փախստական Սիրիայից, եւ Սաուդյան Արաբիան ամեն ինչ անելու է, որպեսզի նրանք ընդմիշտ մնան այնտեղ, քանի որ նրանք գերազանցապես սուննիներ են: Լիբնանն այդպիսով կդառնա սուննի պետություն: Նշենք, որ Լիբանաի բնակչությունը 3,2 միլիոն է:

Լիբանանն արգելել է փախստականների հետագա ներհոսքը, սակայն եթե Սիրիայի աղետը ավարտվի, փախստականների հոսքը անհնար կլինի զսպել: Քրիստոնյա փախստականները Լիբանանում չեն մնում, մեկնում են Եվրոպա, ԱՄՆ, Կանադա եւ Ավստրալիա:

Բեյրութում հավաքվել են բամաթիվ քաղաքական լրագրողներ, վերլուծաբաններ աշխարհի առաջատար երկրներից, ովքեր ժամանակ առ ժամանակ հավաքվում են իրադարձությունները քննարկելու համար: Առավել ակտիվ են ֆրանսիացի ու բրիտանացի լրագրողներն ու վերլուծաբանները, նրանց հայտնի են դառնում ամենագաղտնի մանրամասները, որոնք տեղի են ունենում Լիբանանում, Սիրիայում ու Իրաքում: Նրանց կարծիքով, Բեյրութի թաղամասերից մեկում՝ Խազմիայում տեղի են ունենում ամերիկացիների ու սիրիական կառավարության ներկայացուցիչների մշտական շփումներ: Դրանց մասնակցում են ոչ միայն կադրային դիվանագետները, այլեւ փորձագետներ, զինվորականներ:

Ներկայում հարց է առաջանում, թե որքանով է արդյունավետ ԱՄՆ քաղաքականությունը Մերձավոր Արեւելքում: Փորձագետների կարծիքով, ԱՄՆ-ն մի դեպքում սխալներ է թույլ տվել, այլ դեպքերում հասել անվիճելի հաջողության: Դա նշանակում է, որ ԱՄՆ վերահսկողությունից դուրս են եկել Սաուդյան Արաբիան ու Թուրքիան, սակայն շատ խնդիրներ են լուծվել Եգիպտոսի ու Իրանի հետ: ԱՄՆ-ն հասել է ողջ տարածաշրջանի վերահսկողությանը եւ թույլ չի տվել Չինաստանի մուտքը տարածաշրջան:

Վերադառնալով Լիբանանին, պետք է ասել, որ այդ երկիրն առայժմ վաստակում է իրավիճակի վրա, նախեւառաջ՝ սննդամթերքի, նավթամթերքի, զենքի, հագուստի միջնորդավորված վաճառքի: Կրոնական յուրաքանչյուր խումբ գերադասում է հարաբերություններ կառուցել արտասահմանյան երկրի հետ:

Քրիստոնեական համայնքներից մեկը հիացած է Ադլերից ժամանած «Արթուրիկի մոտ» ռեստորանային նվագախմբի ժամանումից: Նվագախմբի անդամները, ովքեր Աբխազիայում եղել են գրոհայիններ, անդամագրվել են Սիրիայի ինքնապաշտպանական ջոկատներին: Մի խոսքով, կյանքը շարունակվում է:

Կասկած չկա, որ ամերիկացիներին հաջողվել է համեմատաբար միավորել կառավարության ու ընդդիմության ուժերը, ինչը էական գործոն է դարձել իսլամիստներին դիմակայելու հարցում: Որոշ տեղեկություններով, այդ շփումներին նպաստում են իրանցիները:

ԱՄՆ-ն ու Սիրիան կրկին վերադարձել են բանակցություններին: Սաուդյան Արաբիան սկսել է հայտարարել ինչ որ նոր բան, որ դեմ չէ Սիրիայի ներկայիս ռեժիմին, սակայն ողջ խնդիրը հանգում է Ասադի իշխանությանը: Թեեւ անհասկանալի է, թե ինչ է նշանակում Սիրիայի ներկայիս իշխանությունն առանց Բաշար Ասադի:
Ինչ որ տեղ Մերձավոր Արեւելքում, օգոստոս 2015 թ.

- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/arm/0/com....GnbVLLwS.dpuf

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

As Ara Baliozian has stated many times, after many centuries of slavery 95% of Armenians and most Armenian leaders do not have confidence in themselves

They rely on an external power for survival. Russia as the most immediate neighbor, which has an interest in Armenia from a geopolitical standpoint, which created the 'Armenian district' in 1828 on territory where Armenian were a minority is the most obvious power. Look at history

In 1919 Armenian leaders depended 100% on the French to build a state in Kilikya. The moment the French changed sides , Kilikya was finished

In 1920 Armenia was celebrating the Treaty of Sevres . The moment the "allies" started supporting Kemal, Kars, Ardahan, Igdir, Surmalu, Alexandropol...(and almost yerevan) were lost. Which brave fights do you have in mind?

Ara Baliozian is just another political commentator who falls into trap of his own convictions, not the thruth...
You asked for which brave fighters I was talking about?
It is a fact that since the beginning of 18th century, there has not been any liberation movement around Ottoman turkey without participation of Armenian volunteer battalions or units(which in the case of Bulgarian war, amounted to army), against empire. It goes for Rumanian, Bulgarian, Greek independence wars, Arab revolts and Georgian wars against ottoman empire. Our national hero, Andranik, was bestowed title of general and hero of Bulgarian nation.
Many many known military leaders of Armenian origin fought in other nation's armies against empire. So we have played very significant role in collapse of Ottoman empire. Slave minded?
Even the origins of Russian kossaks is Armenian. It is being thought in russian academies right at this moment. The term Kossak is sinonymus with a free spirited fighter. It has been originated in Armenian communities around Crimea in 9-10th centuries.
It is in the interest of our enemies to forget this facts. But unfortunately we help them ourselfs.
Since the time when Peter the great eyed black sea shores and dreamt of mediterranean ports, he knew that in Armenians he would have a potent ally and fighter force and support, as long as he promised that he would free them from muslim oppression. Armenians were not only giving brave fighters, but material and logistic support to them. Our wide spread communities and networks in ottoman empire and behind, became very essential part of russian intelligence, and helped spread the sparks of national independence movements in balkans and everywhere.
I myself think that if not for Armenians, russians would never pass lower than north caucasus borders and even maybe not even take crimea. They would never defeat persian or ottoman armies because exept us, the whole population of area was muslim and very hostile to russians.
Georgians have never played even significant role as christians.
So you believe that about the "Armenian district" russians knew better than people who have lived there for 3000 years? That district was the result of over a century of struggle and shoulder to shoulder political and military advances by our people with russians. Without our movement, there would not be a russian empire there to deal with those lands.
Do not fall into trap of turko/azeri propaganda that there was no , or very small population of Armenians there(russians minimise our numbers for their own political reasons too). How can there be minuority in any place that retains or forces to accept it's sociopolitical independence under persian or Ottoman controll?
Are we forgetting artsakh/zangezur melik-doms? mush/sasun ishkhans?
Even if there was only one Armenian in whole area, the most important thisng is that we consider this area as our homeland for over 3000 years and will do anything to get them be ours.
And we did.
The real slave mindedness here is the thought that somebody granted us that land-"if not for the Russians"!!!
The fact is that we have been straggling for many centuries to create that "Armenia". Here come the russians, and our strategic goals coinside and we worked together. It is still in effect now.
There is another fact, that Russians have been very weary and carefull about our national feelings for the past 200 years.
Interestingly, the very weak and negative ideas about our strength and national identity comes not from Russians, but europeans. Especially catolics. The treachery of papacy and europe against us goes way back to 4th century.
Yes, what europe did after the end of WW1 amounts to a simple treachery and political fraud.
Do not blame your nation for that. But put the blame and sticks where they supposed to be.

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The west did not mind if Armenia disappeared in 1920.

Not that anyone here is claiming that the West is any better than Russia, but the historical fact of the matter is that the West devised the partition of Turkey that culminated in the Treaty of Sevres. Armenia, with access to the black sea, was recognized by leading world powers and the Turkish government itself. That the treaty did not materialize had to do with the counterrevolution under Ataturk that overthrew the legitimate government of Turkey, rejected the treaty, and fought back against the West. In fact, Turkey secured weapons directly from Russia in its fight against western powers.

The Treaty of Lausanne in 1923 between the west and Turkey did not even mention the word Armenia.

As far as the boundaries between Soviet Armenia and Turkey goes, the boundaries were determined between Moscow and Turkey directly in the Treaties of Moscow and Kars where Russia handed over kars, Ardahan, Surmalu, and Mount Ararat to the Turks. The treaty of Laussane simply re-affirmed this arrangement between the Turks and Russians.

In 1993 a Russian general flew into Yerevan to tell the Turks that if they crossed the border there would be World War 3.

Wow, that's interesting... What was the name of this general? While such a thing did not actually happen, yes the Russian base served as a restraining factor for the Turks. At the same time, however, realize that the Russians hand their hands full themselves in Chechnya, and Turkish involvement in Chechnya, as well as Azerbaijan, was there all along.

[lampron]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Ara Baliozian is just another political commentator who falls into trap of his own convictions, not the thruth...
You asked for which brave fighters I was talking about?
It is a fact that since the beginning of 18th century, there has not been any liberation movement around Ottoman turkey without participation of Armenian volunteer battalions or units(which in the case of Bulgarian war, amounted to army), against empire. It goes for Rumanian, Bulgarian, Greek independence wars, Arab revolts and Georgian wars against ottoman empire. Our national hero, Andranik, was bestowed title of general and hero of Bulgarian nation.
Many many known military leaders of Armenian origin fought in other nation's armies against empire. So we have played very significant role in collapse of Ottoman empire. Slave minded?
Even the origins of Russian kossaks is Armenian. It is being thought in russian academies right at this moment. The term Kossak is sinonymus with a free spirited fighter. It has been originated in Armenian communities around Crimea in 9-10th centuries.
It is in the interest of our enemies to forget this facts. But unfortunately we help them ourselfs.
Since the time when Peter the great eyed black sea shores and dreamt of mediterranean ports, he knew that in Armenians he would have a potent ally and fighter force and support, as long as he promised that he would free them from muslim oppression. Armenians were not only giving brave fighters, but material and logistic support to them. Our wide spread communities and networks in ottoman empire and behind, became very essential part of russian intelligence, and helped spread the sparks of national independence movements in balkans and everywhere.
I myself think that if not for Armenians, russians would never pass lower than north caucasus borders and even maybe not even take crimea. They would never defeat persian or ottoman armies because exept us, the whole population of area was muslim and very hostile to russians.
Georgians have never played even significant role as christians.
So you believe that about the "Armenian district" russians knew better than people who have lived there for 3000 years? That district was the result of over a century of struggle and shoulder to shoulder political and military advances by our people with russians. Without our movement, there would not be a russian empire there to deal with those lands.
Do not fall into trap of turko/azeri propaganda that there was no , or very small population of Armenians there(russians minimise our numbers for their own political reasons too). How can there be minuority in any place that retains or forces to accept it's sociopolitical independence under persian or Ottoman controll?
Are we forgetting artsakh/zangezur melik-doms? mush/sasun ishkhans?
Even if there was only one Armenian in whole area, the most important thisng is that we consider this area as our homeland for over 3000 years and will do anything to get them be ours.
And we did.
The real slave mindedness here is the thought that somebody granted us that land-"if not for the Russians"!!!
The fact is that we have been straggling for many centuries to create that "Armenia". Here come the russians, and our strategic goals coinside and we worked together. It is still in effect now.
There is another fact, that Russians have been very weary and carefull about our national feelings for the past 200 years.
Interestingly, the very weak and negative ideas about our strength and national identity comes not from Russians, but europeans. Especially catolics. The treachery of papacy and europe against us goes way back to 4th century.
Yes, what europe did after the end of WW1 amounts to a simple treachery and political fraud.
Do not blame your nation for that. But put the blame and sticks where they supposed to be.

So why had Armenians allowed themselves to become a minority on the plain of Ararat ? Why did we wait for Russia to have the Armyanskaya oblast in 1828 if we could have done it ourselves?
The Karabakh melkdoms were semi-independent, under Persian authority, accepted.
Without Armenian fighters Russia would not have conquered Crimea and the north Caucasus? This is a new one. Do any historians say this?
But fighting for foreign armies is not something to be proud of