Regional geopolitics

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

It took me a couple of weeks after Vrej1915 started posting to realize he is a spy/agitator. I am glad someone else figured it out finely to.

[Armynia]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The issue is where lies our future based on historical and current geopolitical facts.

Agree!

Due to current historical and geopolitical facts such as liberation of Artsakh, Armenia has the all basis to become an strong nation.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

J

Listen Vrej. Bringing up insidents of som.......hatred for Russia operative.
I wonder why suddenly you in this forum and Igor and his cohorts in other media have suddenly jumped into overdrive in this couple of weeks? Ha?
Are your handlers preparing something against Armenia? Against Russia for sure ya?

My Dear Hakop,
As I have some time this morning, I will try to answer with some details, to your question in an other post.

But at first, You asked me why?

I can’t talk for others, (even if I do suspect very similar reasons) but me personally, I may give you 5 Billion reasons right now. Unfortunately, there are good chances that my reasons will just go higher in next months…

I have posted lately comments of some very renowned russian spokespersons inside our ‘intelligentsia', and their comments, but I guess you did not get the nuances that are significant.
For the latest, the comment of Mr Serguey MINASSIAN.
Seguey MINASSIAN is just as Armenian, as RICHARD Giragossian, who is so famed on this forum. Or if you wish, he is as russian, as Richard GIRAGOSSIAN is american… .

When he talks, all Yerevan hears the voice of Maskwa, just as when someone like Alik ISKANDARYAN, or Hayk KOTANJIAN.

The amazing thing in Sergey’s words was not the justification of russian policy, which he is paid to do, and exists for. The amazing novelty, from the mouth of a Serguey MINASSIAN is the possibility of a russian exit from Armenia, however unlikely it may sound, and of course he tries to...

The fact that people of that caliber do talk of such a possibility, tells a lot, about the mood in Armenia.
Such words were impossible 5 years back, in the mouth of Serguey.

Just amazing.

Because even on a russian payroll, he still is a clever boy, a very well informed, good military expert. He must be among the few, for whom, everything known for us have no secrets.
So, as a good Javakhtzi, hard worker and not stupid, he does understand what things look like…., and willy nilly, truth comes out, however he fights to shout his feelings.
That interview alone, tells all….

Think about that....

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

U

My Dear Hakop,
As I have some time this morning, I will try to answer with some details, to your question in an other post.

But at first, You asked me why?

I can’t talk for others, (even if I do suspect very similar reasons) but me personally, I may give you 5 Billion reasons right now. Unfortunately, there are good chances that my reasons will just go higher in next months…

I have posted lately comments of some very renowned russian spokespersons inside our ‘intelligentsia', and their comments, but I guess you did not get the nuances that are significant.
For the latest, the comment of Mr Serguey MINASSIAN.
Seguey MINASSIAN is just as Armenian, as RICHARD Giragossian, who is so famed on this forum. Or if you wish, he is as russian, as Richard GIRAGOSSIAN is american… .

When he talks, all Yerevan hears the voice of Maskwa, just as when someone like Alik ISKANDARYAN, or Hayk KOTANJIAN.

The amazing thing in Sergey’s words was not the justification of russian policy, which he is paid to do, and exists for. The amazing novelty, from the mouth of a Serguey MINASSIAN is the possibility of a russian exit from Armenia, however unlikely it may sound, and of course he tries to...

The fact that people of that caliber do talk of such a possibility, tells a lot, about the mood in Armenia.
Such words were impossible 5 years back, in the mouth of Serguey.

Just amazing.

Because even on a russian payroll, he still is a clever boy, a very well informed, good military expert. He must be among the few, for whom, everything known for us have no secrets.
So, as a good Javakhtzi, hard worker and not stupid, he does understand what things look like…., and willy nilly, truth comes out, however he fights to shout his feelings.
That interview alone, tells all….

Think about that....

What you are talking about is about today.
The importance and what that means should not be viewed by prejudice.
Can be alarming or even welcome, depending how the real situation will settle.
Bluffs are possible too right?
Actually they may constitute 99% from east and west.
I am expecting the Russians Pool all strings because the situation and danger or pressure from her western "partners".
There is uncertainty of bloodbath at the end in very big scale.
I
NATO isn't guaranteeing even Georgia.
So comes the question, what next?
Should we get panicked (for some, get happy) and make mistakes?
Any reason don't mater, and all matter. But try to keep balance and not play in somebody's game.
The bigger game. In the end that has been played over and over for long time. So there's no reason to think that it will be different now.
You see, you believe that this time is different. Me, not.

[lampron]

Re: Regional geopolitics

It took me a couple of weeks after Vrej1915 started posting to realize he is a spy/agitator. I am glad someone else figured it out finely to.

But he is not the only one

'respectable' and well funded media channels inside Armenia are full of it!

amazing piece of journalistic sensation in http://www.1in.am/

Հայաստանի ամենամեծ սպառնալիքը ոչ Թուրքիան է, ոչ էլ անգամ Ադրբեջանը

Now we know!

1in.am: The issue of Nagorno-Karabagh, there is a shift in this process, especially in the light of the confrontation between the West and Russia. The U.S is a co-chair in the Minsk group. And this confrontation between the West and Russia cannot, it goes without saying that it will have an impact on the peace process of Nagorno-Karabagh. And it is possible that in this situation that there might be a sudden outbreak of war. And this came from the doctrine of Russia regarding the former Soviet Republics we can see these, and also the large scale of sale of offensive weapons to Azerbaijan by Russia, and this makes Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, to make his war rhetoric tougher and tougher every day. So how easy it is for the United States to keep working with the Russia in the Minsk group framework, keep constructive work. And does the United States have any separate tools to work and to promote the peace process especially in the light of these developments when there is so much things that cannot be predicted.

Ambassador: Arman, you are right. Russia’s international aggression across state borders into Ukraine severely strained relations between my country and Russia, and between Russia and most of the international community. But as Secretary Kerry and President Obama have consistently said, where we share the same goals with Moscow, we will work together. I believe the United States and Russia do share the same goal of achieving a peaceful resolution of the Nagorno- Karabagh conflict. And Ambassador Warlick tells me, and I know he told the Armenian government when he was here just a few weeks ago, that he continues to work within the Minsk co-chair process with his co-chairs, including the Russian co-chair, very closely to achieve this goal. Let me say, it is still our assessment that neither side in this conflict is interested in escalating to full-out war or to resume conflict. But I know Ambassador Warlick continues to urge them to restrain their rhetoric, restrain their actions, and reduce tensions. You asked about bilateral engagement on the issue, and I have to be clear that our primary tool, the primary process for helping the parties resolve this conflict is the Minsk process. We at the embassy try to support the Minsk process, we have done that for a number of years, for instance by trying just to bring Azerbaijanis and Armenians together, so that they can learn about each other and maybe break down some of the hostility that exists.

So from this interview we know who the troublemaker is - Russia
And who the peacemaker is - the US

Would Azerbaijan with its billions accumulated thanks to massive US, British etc investment in its oil industry not buy weapons from any other source if Russia didn't sell? Isn't the US selling weapons to Greece and Turkey?

Do any of these morons realize that without the Russian base Turkey might intimidate, even attack?
A quick search on youtube on the Cyprus invasion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYJI4ubiiZY

Will 1in.am and the others even mention it?
Turkish massacres against the Kurds right now are ignored by the US and its media

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The problem with west is it is not monolithic. It tries to be.
And like before, it will pull the game so costly that it cannot finish. At the end it will recede.
What you have between Ankara and Moscow is what matters. That is why I am surprised by some of the announcements you are putting forward as historic facts.
Why fool people? If you think that you know much and are truthfull and not just agitating.

[Hakob]

Re: Regional geopolitics

But he is not the only one

'respectable' and well funded media channels inside Armenia are full of it!

amazing piece of journalistic sensation in http://www.1in.am/

Now we know!



So from this interview we know who the troublemaker is - Russia
And who the peacemaker is - the US

Would Azerbaijan with its billions accumulated thanks to massive US, British etc investment in its oil industry not buy weapons from any other source if Russia didn't sell? Isn't the US selling weapons to Greece and Turkey?

Do any of these morons realize that without the Russian base Turkey might intimidate, even attack?
A quick search on youtube on the Cyprus invasion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYJI4ubiiZY

Will 1in.am and the others even mention it?
Turkish massacres against the Kurds right now are ignored by the US and its media

Lampron jan, this is simple propaganda stuff that has just shifted gear.
The same boogeyman and same "angels"(Devils). It just has changed rhetoric.
The thing is how they believe in what comes out of their mouth?

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

PART 1:

Now, let us be serious about past events, and what is more important, the lessons we must learn, to avoid not only past tragedies, but make sure we will reserve better days for our children, than what we inherited from our grandparents.
Who saved Turkey in the past?
You may tell virtually everybody, each on his turn.
But first, the Turks saved themselves, because they believed in their destiny, no matter how "immoral" their existence and shine is for the indigenous people of Armenian highland, Kilika, Asia Minor or the Balkans.
We must first accept facts, however unpleasant.
From a turkish point of view, they did what was best suiting their interests.

It is historical fact, that virtually all major powers, The British Empire, France, Germany, Russia, …. did save Turkey, since the end of the expansion of the Osmans .

But yet again, the nation that did the most to save turks, in the XX century, are the russians, however unpleasant it may be for some unconditional russophiles, in 1918.
That is a fact.
The lowest point for Turkey was 1918, when that state virtually was at a vanishing point as an entity.
Without Lenin, there would have been a much smaller osmanian/turkish state based around Konya, but Constantnipole would have been a European/Christian dominated, mainly christian city, and certainly Western Armenia would have been populated mostly by the survivors of the Armenian Genocide… .
If you wish to have a good idea how western Europe would have treated the Ottoman Empire, have a look to Austra-Hongrya. Turkey or no matter its name, would have been something like Austria, and the Kurds would have had a secondary state like Hungarya did, with maximal losses.
So no matter what you wish to hear, yes, Russia saved Turkey in 1918-21.
And frankly speaking, that is just understandable from a russian point of view.

It happens that I am not russian, and what is good or bad for Russia is not my problem.
Mine is my state’s interest.

And from my country’s point of view, Russia was an enemy, not much different from the Turks.
That does not mean there is no difference between the 2.

Turkey was, is , and will ever be an Existential enemy, no matter how much we may wish otherwise.
Simply, because they want to own (some will call share, but a fatherland can’t be shared) our land, and we just can’t afford that.

Concerning Russia.
Russia is not our enemy by essence, nor choice.
Most of the time, it acts as our master (provided we accept and be happy with a mudjik status), and from time to time, as an enemy…, and rarely as an ally.
For objective reasons, I already exposed, and see no need to renew, it happens that Russia acts as an ally, only when it is at its lowest point, on the verge of collapse…. and as soon as it feels self confident and on an expansion mode, as a cruel enemy, no matter if we do not call them by their name.
That is a big pity, nevertheless, however unpleasant to virtually every Armenian, cruel fact.
We better accept facts, and act accordingly.

For the last decade or so, feeling itself (in my modest opinion too early) on a reexpension mode, considering us as hopeless russophiles condemned to applaud whatever it does, Russia acts more and more like an enemy.
This will change, as soon as they will feel their doom’s day.
In the mean time, we would have paid as deerly as in the pas similar situation.

So it is now or never, to prevent, if possible the russian treacherey, by a preventive warning. To prevent, we must be taken seriously, and first, we must get rid of that hopeless russophilia.

The message from us must be: "If ever you dare, it will be your last".
Next time they will wake up in Volgograd.
Having no independent state, no MFA, no real national leader at our top, the last hope remains a popular anger, convincing enough for the russian FSB, to perhaps, prevent a treacherous act, that might be their last in Kavkaz, but our last as well.
The bear is so used to our survival capacity, it does not realize that we may really disappear, and by thus, eliminate its last hope of comeback.
Any way, if we do respect ourselves, and believe in our destiny, we must not rely on that grim demonstration, and try to prevent.

Their bad days are already not that far.
Once more they will retreat.
As soon as they will feel they are on the loosing run, historic evidence shows, that they will remember our place, and regardless their policy, our territory may well expand, as in the early 90-s, if we dare...

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

PART 2:

Emperial slave/mujik metality:
This is how I tend to call, to try to charachterise the heritage of centuries of slavery, according to which, An Armenian MUST ABSOLUTELY SERVE an external power.
It is such a natural. It is evident.
Of course, this is in no way a national characteristic.
It is widely common among most enslaved nations, and is essential part of the emperial mechanism, survival.

Plus, given the soviet heritage, we are programmed by the tchekists to react according their partly paranoid mentality.
This is of course not particular to the CCCP.
Same existed and still exist among their archrivals of the CRU.

As we are more concerned by the soviet heritage, I still use this versus, concerning us, but granted that same exist on the other side.

So, to resume, we are programmed to react not as us, that is a nation called Armenia, a people called Armenians, naturally supposed to be pro-themselves, that is pro-Armenian, but as soviet citizens, if not chekists!

If someone dares to criticize Stalin, he is necesserily a CRU agent.
If someone dares to criticise Russia, he is necesserily a CRUshnik, or a western agent. ( again, same goes for the guys on the other side of the barrier)

No one can imagine, that you can be simply pro-yourself, because you are not supposed to exist as a such.
If you still refuse, then you are necesserily a cheater.

Accepting this mentality, is the alfa and the omega of the slave mentality.
And daring to shake it, is the beginning, not necesserily the achievement of independence.

Because to accept the idea that someone/us, can think of its entity as independent from east and West, North and South equally, is supposed such unthinkable, on the basis of "realpolitics, realism".... ,
Otherwise, accepting that one can think his nation worth of self-confidence, to refuse any allegience, to any other party than his own entity is such a foolish idea, that it must necesserily be trick!

From an emperial tchekist/crushnik/kgbshnik/MI5shnik point of view, this may be understandable.
They are paid to think that way, it's the essence of their existence.

But from the people of any nation pretending to exist as a such, accepting that lecture is antinomic of a national existence.

If you do exist as a such, however week or poor, surrounded or strangeled, you must first admitt that you are you, and you alone.
If we are Armenian, and only Armenian, sons and owners of Armenia, we must accept that Armenia starts and ends in Armenia.
The only national interest is that of Armenia.
That identity is strong enough, to have prived, exclusive interests.

And at the moment you do accept that idea, it will be evident, that if your interest is exclusive, by deffinition, you can't be part of no other entity.
And in place off panicking before the "sad" reality of not having any "ally", we will admit that natural phenomenon.

No nation on earth, apart some exceptions, where organic links exist (US/UK), (US/Israel), (UK/NZ), (Turkey/Azerbaijan), has eternal allies, and that is just normal.
The fact that we seem to have none, is sad, but fact.
Let's accept and face it.

The main difference between us, and the enormous majority of other nations is:
That while as most others we do not have eternal allies, we do have one Eternal/existential enemy.

Too bad for us, yet we can not change it.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Part 3:

The fact that Russia did save Turkey a couple of times, is absolutely not antinomic by the fact that these empires, as most big empires did fight each others.
When two empires fight for positions, rarely they do it for the sake of the creation of a third, small entity at the expense of both of them.
If ever such execptions happen, it is only the result of compromise between the two, or much more widely, the result of third, or forth power interference.

Such is for exemple the case of the Balkanian states, that appeared from the result of a Russian/Ottoman wars...
If there wasn't European powers, the Balkan states would have been part Russian Empire or at best Ostrohongrian.

So it is only natural, from the point of view of Imperial Russia, that Armenia as an entity, let alone a nation deserving the right to have national interests never existed.

The persecution of Armenians in Tzarist Russia was certainly not exclusive, as it was widely targetting anything not russian, nevertheless very real and permanent.
It was the emperial policy, and the core of that policy.
And yet again, from a russian perspective, it is just natural.
What is not, is to defend or justify that, while pretending to be Armenian minded.
It is intellectual dishonesty, to describe the russian czarist rule as a blessed one for Armenians, putting all sins of the russians on the sole shoulders of Stalin.
From day 1, the day first parts of Eastern Armenia were incorporated into the russian empire, the same empire did its outmost to dilute the armenian character of the provinces, by including them in mixed administrative units.
It was czarist russia’s natural policy that ended by the confiscation of The Armenian church’s belongings, what was known then as the Armenian National Estate.
It was the same empire’s natural policy to close the Armenian schools.
It was the empire’s policy to collaborate with the Sultan’s regime, to fight the Armenian revolutionary mouvements. Remember Kukunyan’s group? Remember who did capture and exiled Njdeh to Siberia first?
Remember who ignited the Armeno-Tatar war of 1905-07? And on who’s side was the empire tzarist state machine?

The liberation of Western Armenia, or the creation of an Armenian homeland, even under russian rule, was never a russian project.
Never Russia did any gesture, or at least declarative moves for the Western Armenian homeland as a such.
In my knowledge, the only declarative piece of paper was the famous Lenin’s letter for Western Armenia, in fact a death penalty declaration.

Stali Molotov’s 1946-48 Kars-Ardahan-Artvin demands were made in name of SSR of Georgia ….., and on that occasion it was well Truman an his A-Bomb that saved Turkey.

The soviet regime never used, or helped the cause, and thus, in full conformity with the traditional russian policy of wise and polite cooperation with the fellow turkish empire, even laugh officially enemy Nato member.
That is a fact.

An independent, big Armenia was and nor is , however cruel, not a russian policy.
In the contrary, on every occasion, Russia did, and probably will do its best to derail that idea.

And once more , it is only natural from an imperial russian point of view.

So what?
If Russia is against, we should forget everything?
Nor is any other power steadily interested? True.
So what?
It’s lost, and we must accept the end of our history?

We must believe in ourselves first and foremost.
We must accept, that United Armenia project has only permanent enemies in the persons of Turkey, possibly Russia, possibly Kurdistan, and potentially situational backers.

Nevertheless, in name of our, and only our national interest, we must believe in our capacity, to survive.
On the long term, survival means liberation of at least big chunks of Western Armenia.

Turkey is against, Russia is against.
So what?
They are in their Emperial role.
Let us be in our national exclusive role.

Who might have guessed about Shushi in January 1992?
Who did guess the creation of a Kurdish second state in 2010?
Who did guess 2 months back that all Western Armenia & Northern Kurdistan will be in flames today?

Let us believe in ourselves first and foremost, and have dreams.
Provided we accept to pay the price and work, in place of waiting who will back us?

Our land will yet again change hands.
If we are not claiming it, others will.
They may still claim the small parts that we still keep, if we continue this trend.

It’s only up to us, and for us.
Let’s accept that no one will be our ally for this, even alone, we should work and fight.

And as history shows, when you keep your arms in your hand, you will necessarily find allies.
If not for you, at least against the enemy you are fighting.