Regional geopolitics

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/76776

......

In his latest clarification, Kaladze said that his talks with Gazprom are about revising the terms for the transit of Russian gas through Georgia to Armenia. Instead of taking 10 percent of the gas (some 200 million cubic meters) as a transit fee, Tbilisi wants to get paid in cash, Kaladze said on January 11. The deal, if reached, will last for a year, the minister said, which, to his mind, means that the doomsday scenarios “painted by the so-called experts are nothing but delirious and wrong."

.....

Some articles state Russia wants to pay in cash, some articles Georgia wants cash.

All articles supposedly from blue chip news media.

Anybody with the convincing "truth" as to which way round this is !!!!

.

[Artashes]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Some articles state Russia wants to pay in cash, some articles Georgia wants cash.

All articles supposedly from blue chip news media.

Anybody with the convincing "truth" as to which way round this is !!!!

.

Only a guess on my part ... Georgians being Georgians. It's the Georgians that want cash instead of gas.
Why ? Two reasons , (1) they are dumber than a rock , (2) they know Russia has plenty of gas but is tight on cash at the moment so they pressure Russia & curry favor with the hominoids. Smart Georgian (lol).
It's gotta be that way. Russia has so much gas but sanction strapped + Syrian action is not cheap, etc.
Yes Georgia , back up hominoid mooseeman over Christian human , and please completely forget that Russia's going to remember this and has and likely will have various responses to your Assinine ?logic?

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Հինգշաբթի, հունվարի 21, 2016
Ազատություն tv

Կալաձե. «Գազպրոմ»-ը սպառնում է դադարեցնել Վրաստանի տարածքով Հայաստան գազի մատակարարումը

Գեւորգ Ստամբոլցյան
Հրապարակված է՝ 20.01.2016

Վրաստանի հետ բանակցությունների տապալման դեպքում «Գազպրոմ»-ը սպառնում է դադարեցնել «Հյուսիս-Հարավ» մագիստրալային գազատարով Հայաստան իրականացվող մատակարարումները՝ փոխարենը Հայաստան-Իրան խողովակաշարի միջոցով հայկական շուկան ապահովելով իրանական գազով: Երեկ երեկոյան «Ռուսթավի 2» հեռուստաընկերության եթերում նման հայտարարությամբ հանդես եկավ Վրաստանի էներգետիկայի նախարար Կախա Կալաձեն:

«Գազպրոմ»-ը մեզ առաջարկում է անցնել ֆինանսական վճարների մեխանիզմին: Դուք գիտեք, որ այժմ Հայաստան մատակարարվող գազի 10 տոկոսը Վրաստանում է մնում՝ որպես տարանցման վճար: Ռուսական կողմը այժմ մեզ առաջարկում է կոնկրետ գումար տրամադրել, այլ ոչ թե գազ: Մեզ համար դա նորություն էր, և մենք այդ տարբերակին կտրականապես համաձայն չէինք: Մեր անհամաձայնությանն ի պատասխան, սակայն, «Գազպրոմ»-ի ներկայացուցիչները հայտարարեցին, որ Ռուսաստանն իրական հնարավորություն ունի Հայաստանին գազ մատակարարել Իրանի տարածքով»,- հայտարարեց Կալաձեն՝ ռուսական կողմի այս պնդումը որակելով որպես վերջնագիր:

«Մեր նախարարությունը վերլուծեց, թե որքանով է իրատեսական մեզ ներկայացված վերջնագիրը` պարզելով, որ «Գազպրոմ»-ն այսօր Իրանով կարող է Հայաստան մատակարարել մոտ 1 միլիարդ խորանարդ մետր գազ: Որոշակի տեխնիկական աշխատանքներից հետո նրանք կարող են ամբողջությամբ բավարարել հայկական շուկայում առկա պահանջարկը»,- նշում էր Կալաձեն:

Վրաստանի էներգետիկայի նախարար նաև ընդգծում է, որ վրաց մասնագետների գնահատականով՝ տարանցման վրացական ուղուց հրաժարվելու դեպքում մոտ մեկ տարի շարունակ Հայաստանը գազի պակասորդի կբախվի:

Ուշագրավ է, որ Կալաձեի այս հայտարարությունը հնչեց նրա` Վիեննա մեկնելուց հաշվված ժամեր առաջ: Ավստրիայի մայրաքաղաքում Վրաստանի էներգետիկայի նախարարն այսօր հանդիպում է «Գազպրոմ»-ի արտահանումների գծով գլխավոր պատասխանատուի` «Գազպրոմ Էքսպորտ» ընկերության տնօրեն Ելենա Բուրմիստրովայի հետ: Վրացական աղբյուրների պնդմամբ՝ բանակցությունների ընթացքում հիմնական տարաձայնությունները կրկին առնչվելու են Հայաստան մատակարարվող գազի տարանցման վճարներին:

Ռուսական կողմը ցանկանում է տարանցման համար ոչ թե գազով, այլ դրամով վճարել` հաշվի առնելով միջազգային շուկայում գազի գնի անկումը: Բացի այդ, Թբիլիսիում որոշակի մտավախություններ կան, որ Մոսկվայի հետ գրեթե տասնամյա ընդմիջումից հետո կրկին ֆինանսական հարաբերությունների մեջ մտնելը կարող է երկիրը կախվածության մեջ դնել «Գազպրոմ»-ից:

Վրաստանը 2007 թվականին էր վերջնականապես հրաժարվել «Գազպրոմ»-ից գազ գնելու պրակտիկայից` գրեթե ամբողջությամբ անցնելով Ադրբեջանում արդյունահանված վառելիքի սպառմանը: Այսօր ադրբեջանական գազի տեսակարար կշիռը Վրաստանում 80-85 տոկոս է կազմում: Կախա Կալաձեի խոսքով` ռուսական գազի մատակարարումների ծավալն ավելացնելու դեպքում անգամ Ադրբեջանը շարունակելու է մնալ Վրաստանի կապույտ վառելիքի թիվ մեկ մատակարարը և ռազմավարական գործընկերը:

[Mher]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Some within Georgia's political opposition link this prospect to billionaire former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, seen as Georgia's real ruler, who, they allege, still holds shares in the Russian energy giant. The claim could not be immediately verified.

great journalism, essentially giving legitimacy to baseless random accusations.


Hopefully this is true, any improvement in Russian-Georgian relationship, not too mention cooling in Georgian-Azeri relationship is a positive step for us.

[londontsi]

Re: Regional geopolitics

[Joseph]

Re: Regional geopolitics

An American take:

http://www.intellinews.com/comment-azerbaijan-in-the-fog-500446928/?archive=bne

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

US denies building airbase in Kurdish-held Syria

Written by Chris Tomson
22/01/2016


For months, reports have indicated that American engineers have been building an airbase in Syria’s Hasakah province in a region largely controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). However, earlier today, an official of the U.S. Department of State denied that American forces had taken control of any airfield in Syria.



Nevertheless, recent satellite imagery shows that the Rimelan Airbase in northeastern Syria has been greatly expanded over the past months. Since Kurdish militias in Syria do not control an active air force of their own – many analysts have come to the conclusion that only the U.S. Air Force could utilize such an air field. Furthermore, two days ago, a Syrian Democratic Forces (YPG affiliate) spokesman, Taj Kordsh, said that the US had taken control of the Rimelan Airbase.

Meanwhile, military jets from the US-led anti-ISIS coalition have strongly aided Kurdish militias to advance in both Hasakah and along the Europhrates River in eastern Aleppo. However, thus far, due to Turkish animosity towards the YPG and PKK, the US Air Force has been forced to use Iraqi and Gulf airports to launch airstrikes on ISIS militants.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Post-Sanctions, Iran Looms as the Energy Game-Changer in the Caucasus
January 21, 2016,
by Giorgi Lomsadze

The ending of international sanctions against Iran could soon send Iranian gas flowing across and through the South Caucasus, amping up the region’s strategic significance and possibly changing the dynamics of its energy trade.

For Azerbaijan, getting Iran on board with TANAP, the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Export Pipeline, could bolster Baku’s largest energy-export undertaking, the Southern Gas Corridor, a chain of three big pipelines, stretching across more than 3,400 kilometers and seven countries from the Caspian Sea into Europe. TANAP is the largest and costliest section of the Corridor.

Yesterday, on January 20, Iranian Ambassador to Baku Mohsen Pak Aein declared that “Iran may join . . .TANAP, with an aim of exporting its natural gas to the European markets.” He met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev today to talk non-energy projects as well, adding for good measure that “Iran can join all the large-scale projects in the region.”

As a transit country, Georgia would get a share of any Iranian gas flowing through the Southern Gas Corridor. But with more Iranian gas in the region, Tbilisi fears losing that share of gas it receives from another pipeline — run by Russian energy behemoth Gazprom for shipments to Armenia from Russia.

Citing talks with Gazprom, Georgian Energy Minister Kakha Kaladze alleged this week that Russia wants to stop giving Georgia gas as a transit fee (10 percent of the country's annual supplies) and instead to pay cash. If Georgia declines, Russia has threatened to stop supplying gas to Armenia via Georgia altogether, Kaladze said in a January 19 interview on Rustavi2. Instead, he claimed, gas supplies to Armenia will come from Iran.

Iran is Armenia’s fourth-largest trade partner and the only alternative to Russia for natural gas supplies. Armenia and Iran have been swapping gas for electricity. An existing, 1.1-billion-cubic-meter-capacity pipeline owned by the Armenian branch of Gazprom links the two countries and, if upgraded, could supply most or all of the roughly 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas that Armenia needs annually.

Kaladze’s allegation came as the latest explanation for a series of highly controversial negotiations between Georgia and Gazprom over gas supplies. The talks have stoked fears that the pro-Western country could end up again dependent on Russian energy and thereby susceptible to political pressure from Moscow. Contradictory statements by Kaladze have only fed the concerns.

The alleged Gazprom threat has not entirely dispelled them.

Armenia cannot switch from Russian to Iranian gas overnight and such a move would require pricey infrastructure upgrades. It still would not remove Russia from Armenia’s gas market. The country’s entire pipeline infrastructure is owned or operated by Gazprom's local subsidiary.

Moscow also had gone out of its way to ensure Armenian dependency on Gazprom energy and, by extension, Yerevan’s geopolitical loyalty. For that goal, Moscow even insisted on putting on a diameter limit on the Armenia-Iran pipeline. Letting Armenia fully slide away toward supplies from Iran will leave Russia with fewer options for influence-peddling. Moreover, Armenia just recently asked Russia to lower its price for gas.

Either way, the return of Iran has put all sorts of energy and political dynamics in motion in the South Caucasus, though opinions diverge about how far-reaching these changes will prove to be.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Armenia: Stepping Gingerly Around Russia-Turkey Feud
January 21, 2016 ,
by Gayane Abrahamyan


Policymakers in Armenia are wary of the risks of the country getting caught up in deepening Russian-Turkish rancor. But some observers see opportunity for Armenia to advance its interests amid the geopolitical falling out.

Russian-Turkish relations have rapidly deteriorated since Turkish jets downed a Russian Su-24M fighter in late November. The spat has broad ramifications for Armenia: deep feelings of distrust and hostility mark Yerevan’s own relationship with Turkey, which borders Armenia to the west. Meanwhile, Armenia has traditionally seen Russia as the nation’s protector and strategic ally.

Speculation about Armenia potentially becoming drawn into the Russian-Turkish feud often touches on the Russian military base at the Armenian town of Gyumri. The facility sits less than 10 kilometers from the Turkish border.

While former Armenian Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian (1999-2000) doubts that the existing rancor will spark armed conflict between Russia and Turkey, he predicted that “it will have a significant impact on the entire region of the South Caucasus, where Moscow’s and Ankara’s interests cross.”

The rising temperature in Russian-Turkish relations in particular could alter the dynamics of the long-stalemated Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Karabakh could provide Turkey with an opening to exert pressure on Russia, said Harutiunian, who served as defense minister after the signing of a Karabakh ceasefire agreement in 1994.

“Turkey is likely to open another front against Russia by using Azerbaijan to destabilize the situation on the frontline of the Karabakh conflict – the current buildup of tensions, clashes and sabotage attempts demonstrates that it is already happening,” Harutiunian said.

Over the past three years, ceasefire violations have skyrocketed to their highest level since full-scale fighting ended in 1994. Armenia’s Defense Ministry reports that 41 Armenian soldiers died on the frontline in 2015; eight in the weeks immediately following Turkey’s downing of the Russian jet. Armenian defense officials claim that Azerbaijan used heavy tanks in early December 2015 for the first time since the ceasefire; such actions, they say, mean the effective end of the ceasefire agreement.

Harutiunian noted that even before the downing of Russia’s Su-24M, two Turkish military helicopters in early October violated Armenian airspace, over a section of the Armenian-Turkish border guarded by Russian troops. “This was a demonstration of their power to the Russians, although in our territory,” he said. Turkey attributed the incident to bad weather, the Hraparak newspaper reported.

Harutiunian and other observers want Armenia to remain “aloof” from the Russia-Turkey spat so as “not to become an involved party in this confrontation.”

But Russia could pull some political levers that would make it much more difficult than at present for Armenia to stay on the sidelines. For example, there is talk in Russian political circles about Moscow possibly renouncing the 1921 Treaty of Kars and Treaty of Moscow with Turkey. Those agreements gave Turkey eastern territories that were historically considered Armenian and/or populated by ethnic Armenians, including the cities of Kars and Ardahan, as well as Mount Ararat, the national symbol for Armenia.

Though modern-day Russia no longer has sovereignty over Armenia, Moscow’s renunciation of the pacts could send a powerful signal, some believe. “It cannot be ruled out that the Treaties of Kars and Moscow might get annulled and, as a consequence, Turkey might lose [its unchallenged claim to] up to 30 percent of its lands,” commented Stanislav Tarasov, director of the Moscow-based Near East-Caucasus Research Center, a non-governmental organization.

Other controversial chapters of history could be brought to bear on the present-day dispute. The Fair Russia faction submitted to the Russian parliament a draft bill on criminalizing the denial of genocide in the Ottoman Empire’s 1915-1918 massacre and deportation of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians from modern-day Turkey. The bill has not yet been scheduled for a vote.

On social media platforms, such as Facebook, Armenian civil activists and users have expressed frustration about Russians attempting to co-opt such sensitive issues as weapons in their own battle with Turkey. But some Armenian experts see potential benefits for Yerevan.

Russian politicians trumpeting Armenian issues “fits into the logic of realpolitik and we have to take advantage of it,” said Vardan Voskanian, an expert in Eastern Studies at Yerevan State University.

Voskanian believes that Armenia now should push its own demands and set the bar for Russia as high as possible, namely, by recognizing the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan, criminalizing genocide denial, and supplying the Armenian military with latest-generation weapons.

“Today it has become crystal clear who Russia’s strategic partner is in the region,” he elaborated. “The Russians have finally realized that the billions of US dollars’ worth of [Russian] arms sold to Azerbaijan as ‘purely business’ can one day destroy their own aircraft…”

Russia, along with the United States and France, ostensibly oversees the moribund Karabakh peace process. The Kremlin has not expressed any official interest in recognizing the disputed territory as an independent entity. But there is a precedent for such recognition. Following Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia, the Kremlin recognized the independence of two breakaway Georgian entities – South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Political analyst Stepan Grigorian, head of Yerevan’s Analytical Center for Globalization and Regional Cooperation, believes Armenia could use the tensions between Moscow and Ankara to secure Russian recognition of Karabakh’s independence, but cautions that Armenia should not be drawn into any “proxy war” between Turkey and Russia.

“We have to be extremely cautious under the current circumstances and not get involved,” he said. “This is not our fight.”

Editor's note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a freelance reporter and editor in Yerevan.