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Syria Conflict Update: Regime establishes new supply line to Kweres as ISIS positions collapse in eastern Aleppo
February 21, 2016
Levantine Team
Levantine Group's AssetSource security awareness application provides daily updates and analysis on the Syrian conflict. Below is our report for February 20-21.
(Map appears differently in the AssetSource Application)
Main developments:
1/ Pro-regime forces reportedly completed the encirclement of an ISIS pocket between the Kweres airbase and the city of Aleppo: following clashes with ISIS, pro-regime forces seized the thermal plant east of the air base, then took Za'lanah, Fah and several other villages around road 4. This means that any ISIS forces south of these villages would have been surrounded. Following this, pro-regime sources claim the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and allies were able to fully capture the whole remaining ISIS pocket south of Fah, claiming ISIS withdrew from the area before being surrounded. Multiple Russian airstrikes were reported during the offensive.
2/ Meanwhile the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) claim they captured the city of Shaddadi on February 20 after reaching the outskirts of the town, in Syria's northeastern province of Hasakah. Pro-ISIS sources however claim that fighting is still ongoing in the city, and that ISIS sent reinforcements from the Deir Ez-Zor Province. Regardless the SDF reportedly advanced south of the city and pro-Kurdish sources claim the group seized the village of Fardghami and is advancing toward the ISIS-held town of Markadah, thus almost entirely expelling ISIS from the Hasakah Province. Pro-ISIS sources however claim the group launched a counter-offensive in the area.
3/ An airstrike reportedly struck Kurdish forces near the Tishrin east of Hasakah. The People's Protection Units (YPG) reportedly stated that the cluster munitions were used, further stating that the airstrike was not carried out by an aircraft participating in the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, and that they were trying to identify the perpetrator.
(Turkish ?)
4/ Two bombs detonated within a minute of each other in Homs' al-Zahra district, killing over 50 and injuring 170, while four bombs exploded in Damascus' Set Zeynab area, killing over 62 and injuring over 100 more. For more details and assessments see our previous February 21 reports on AssetSource.
Don't get bogged down in the Syrian information war!
Get front-by-front updates, mapping, and analysis here.
Other updates by fronts:
Northern Aleppo Province:
Russian warplanes struck the opposition-held towns of Hayyan, Anadan and Bayanoun, north of Aleppo city.
Eastern Aleppo Province:
Russian warplanes struck the ISIS-held town of al-Bab, east of Aleppo city.
Aleppo City:
Clashes broke out between opposition and Kurdish forces in Ashrafiyye, near the Kurdish-held district of Sheikh Maqsoud. Kurdish forces reportedly called for residents to mobilize in the area, as tensions have flared up there following the laucnhing of an SDF offensive in northern Aleppo last week.
Southern Aleppo Province:
Russian warplanes reportedly struck opposition targets near the regime-held town of Khan Tuman.
Raqqa Province:
According to pro-regime sources clashes continue to be reported east of Ithiriya, along the road leading to the ISIS-held town of al-Tabqah.
Latakia Province:
Clashes reportedly broke out between pro-regime and opposition forces in the village of A'aliyah/Qaruja, in the Latakia mountains. Meanwhile pro-regime sources claim the SAA and allies took the villages of Nahshabba and Ain al-Qantara, east of the recently seized city of Kinsabba.
North of Hama:
Russian warplanes reportedly struck the opposition-held town of Ltamenah.
Damascus Province:
A surface-to-surface missile fired regime forces reportedly impacted the opposition-held town of Darayya west of Damascus. Clashes were also reported within the city as pro-regime forces tried to advance inside Darayya. Finally, Russian warplanes struck the opposition-held town of Irbin.
Southern Syria:
Russian warplanes reportedly struck the opposition-held town of Kafr Nasej.
Context & Anaylsis
The collapse of ISIS's defensive lines in eastern Aleppo follows weeks of regime offensive in the area, along with an ISIS counter-offensive that delayed regime advances. With the taking of Fah and the surrounding area, a new supply line to the formerly besieged Kweres airbase has been established.
With recent pro-regime gains, the pro-regime camp may launch a new operation meant to push ISIS out of northeastern Aleppo. An immediate target of such an operation would be the ISIS-held city of al-Bab, north of Kweres, while Manbij and Jarablus could be the targets of a broader operation meant to reach the Turkish border. Should pro-regime forces indeed decide to push north, SDF forces fighting near the ISIS-held town of Manbij may also decide to launch their own operation to reach the border, as was the case in northern Aleppo when pro-regime forces were advancing northward.
Meanwhile, while at this time conflicting claims are emerging regarding the current situation in Shaddadi and its vicinity, the SDF operation seems largely successful. The SDF however seems to have decided to push further south as means to to capitalize on the weakening of ISIS positions there, likely without fully clearing Shaddadi. This may indeed expose the SDF to an ISIS counter-offensive.
For daily high-resolution updates, mapping, and predictive analysis on the Syrian conflict, download AssetSource today and receive a free trial.
Syria Conflict Update: Regime establishes new supply line to Kweres as ISIS positions collapse in eastern Aleppo
February 21, 2016
Levantine Team
Levantine Group's AssetSource security awareness application provides daily updates and analysis on the Syrian conflict. Below is our report for February 20-21.
(Map appears differently in the AssetSource Application)
Main developments:
1/ Pro-regime forces reportedly completed the encirclement of an ISIS pocket between the Kweres airbase and the city of Aleppo: following clashes with ISIS, pro-regime forces seized the thermal plant east of the air base, then took Za'lanah, Fah and several other villages around road 4. This means that any ISIS forces south of these villages would have been surrounded. Following this, pro-regime sources claim the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and allies were able to fully capture the whole remaining ISIS pocket south of Fah, claiming ISIS withdrew from the area before being surrounded. Multiple Russian airstrikes were reported during the offensive.
2/ Meanwhile the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) claim they captured the city of Shaddadi on February 20 after reaching the outskirts of the town, in Syria's northeastern province of Hasakah. Pro-ISIS sources however claim that fighting is still ongoing in the city, and that ISIS sent reinforcements from the Deir Ez-Zor Province. Regardless the SDF reportedly advanced south of the city and pro-Kurdish sources claim the group seized the village of Fardghami and is advancing toward the ISIS-held town of Markadah, thus almost entirely expelling ISIS from the Hasakah Province. Pro-ISIS sources however claim the group launched a counter-offensive in the area.
3/ An airstrike reportedly struck Kurdish forces near the Tishrin east of Hasakah. The People's Protection Units (YPG) reportedly stated that the cluster munitions were used, further stating that the airstrike was not carried out by an aircraft participating in the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, and that they were trying to identify the perpetrator.
(Turkish ?)4/ Two bombs detonated within a minute of each other in Homs' al-Zahra district, killing over 50 and injuring 170, while four bombs exploded in Damascus' Set Zeynab area, killing over 62 and injuring over 100 more. For more details and assessments see our previous February 21 reports on AssetSource.
Don't get bogged down in the Syrian information war!
Get front-by-front updates, mapping, and analysis here.
Other updates by fronts:
Northern Aleppo Province:
Russian warplanes struck the opposition-held towns of Hayyan, Anadan and Bayanoun, north of Aleppo city.
Eastern Aleppo Province:
Russian warplanes struck the ISIS-held town of al-Bab, east of Aleppo city.
Aleppo City:
Clashes broke out between opposition and Kurdish forces in Ashrafiyye, near the Kurdish-held district of Sheikh Maqsoud. Kurdish forces reportedly called for residents to mobilize in the area, as tensions have flared up there following the laucnhing of an SDF offensive in northern Aleppo last week.
Southern Aleppo Province:
Russian warplanes reportedly struck opposition targets near the regime-held town of Khan Tuman.
Raqqa Province:
According to pro-regime sources clashes continue to be reported east of Ithiriya, along the road leading to the ISIS-held town of al-Tabqah.
Latakia Province:
Clashes reportedly broke out between pro-regime and opposition forces in the village of A'aliyah/Qaruja, in the Latakia mountains. Meanwhile pro-regime sources claim the SAA and allies took the villages of Nahshabba and Ain al-Qantara, east of the recently seized city of Kinsabba.
North of Hama:
Russian warplanes reportedly struck the opposition-held town of Ltamenah.
Damascus Province:
A surface-to-surface missile fired regime forces reportedly impacted the opposition-held town of Darayya west of Damascus. Clashes were also reported within the city as pro-regime forces tried to advance inside Darayya. Finally, Russian warplanes struck the opposition-held town of Irbin.
Southern Syria:
Russian warplanes reportedly struck the opposition-held town of Kafr Nasej.
Context & Anaylsis
The collapse of ISIS's defensive lines in eastern Aleppo follows weeks of regime offensive in the area, along with an ISIS counter-offensive that delayed regime advances. With the taking of Fah and the surrounding area, a new supply line to the formerly besieged Kweres airbase has been established.
With recent pro-regime gains, the pro-regime camp may launch a new operation meant to push ISIS out of northeastern Aleppo. An immediate target of such an operation would be the ISIS-held city of al-Bab, north of Kweres, while Manbij and Jarablus could be the targets of a broader operation meant to reach the Turkish border. Should pro-regime forces indeed decide to push north, SDF forces fighting near the ISIS-held town of Manbij may also decide to launch their own operation to reach the border, as was the case in northern Aleppo when pro-regime forces were advancing northward.
Meanwhile, while at this time conflicting claims are emerging regarding the current situation in Shaddadi and its vicinity, the SDF operation seems largely successful. The SDF however seems to have decided to push further south as means to to capitalize on the weakening of ISIS positions there, likely without fully clearing Shaddadi. This may indeed expose the SDF to an ISIS counter-offensive.
For daily high-resolution updates, mapping, and predictive analysis on the Syrian conflict, download AssetSource today and receive a free trial.
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