Regional geopolitics

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

The yearly memorial of the recognition of the Armenian genocide is our perpetual claim to the truth.
Please do not get "real politic" scam confused with the TRUTH.

For the West, Greece is their boundary of comprehension. Anything beyond that is alien or exotic.
On a positive note, for a small nation surrounded by a sea of backwards people, we are surviving and unfortunately not thriving as the last frontier of civility .
We have a country, a homogeneous society, geopolitics are working to our advantage lately. We will take it one year at a time for the next millennia.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

TURKEY IS SCREWED. AND IT'S ALL US FAULT

[ Part 2.2: "Attached Text" ]

By Arras

February 25, 2016 "Information Clearing House" - "The Saker" - Amid
rising tensions between Turkey and Russia over the situation in Syria,
one important fact got lost. It's not Russia that caused the current
Turkish problems. It was the USA.

The most fundamental problem modern Turkey is facing is the Kurdish
question. It's a chronic problem, which threatens the integrity of
Turkey and the Turkish elite perceives it as the largest security
treat the country is facing. Turkish policies in Syria are determined
by the Kurdish issue more than anything else. The change from the
so called policy of zero problems with neighbors, which Erdogan and
his government used to promote, came as a surprise to many and is
directly related to the Kurdish issue and the events in Iraq after
the disastrous US invasion.

Kurds Kurdistan

Here, a little historical excursion is needed. When the modern
Turkish state was created on the ashes of the Ottoman empire
following defeat in WWI, it was seeking a new identity on which it
could successfully establish itself. The new young Turkish elite
chose the model of nationalism, at that time a progressive concept
so popular in contemporary Europe.

Turkey, just like some of its European counterparts, was however faced
with the imperial heritage of diverse ethnic groups living on its
newly established territory. There were large and ancient communities
of Greeks, Armenians, Kurds and many other people living in Anatolia
and the European part of Turkey. Ethnic Turks themselves were relative
newcomers to these parts of the world, having arrived only in the
11th century. Greeks and other ethnic groups, on the other hand,
can trace their presence in what is now Turkey well into the Bronze
Age and beyond (3300-1200 BC).

The Turks managed to solve the Greek question after the Graeco-Turkish
war of 1919-1922 and the large exchange of population which followed
it. Most Greeks left Turkey and Turkey received an influx of ethnic
Turks from Greece in return. The Armenian question got solved already
during WWI in what many call the Armenian genocide. Term which
Turkey fiercely opposes. It was a forceful deportation of Armenians
into the Syrian desert. It is estimated that about 1.5 million of
them died. Turkey acknowledges the fact of the deportation, but
claims that loss of life was an unintended consequence rather than
a deliberate act.

One ethnic question which Turkey however did not manage to solve is the
Kurdish question. The Kurds are an ancient community of Iranian people
who accepted Islam. They were skilled soldiers and played an important
role in Islamic armies, including the Seljuk and the Ottoman. Indeed,
the most famous historical Kurdish figure is Saladin (name under which
he is known in the West), a Muslim general who reconquered Jerusalem
during the Crusades and a sultan of Egypt and Syria.

The Turks tried to solve the Kurdish issue by straightforward
assimilation. They announced that from now on, Kurds are simply
=E2~@~^Eastern Turks" and banned the Kurdish language. The Kurds
resisted and the Turks answered with repression, forced relocation,
discrimination and heavy handed military crackdown. Kurds in Turkey
are since then in de facto constant rebellion and a, sometimes less
sometimes more intense, war with the Turkish government, which claimed
thousands of lives on both sides.

Despite having an advantage in numbers and equipment, Turkey seems
to be slowly losing this war. It is estimated that Kurds make up to
about 20% of the Turkish population and Kurdish families have about
double the birthrate of Turkish ones. In a few decades, this will
eventually lead to a situation when there will be more Kurdish than
Turkish men of military age in Turkey.

To make matters worse for Turkey, Kurds do not live only in Turkey.

Thanks to the post colonial legacy and arbitrariness of borders,
which France and Britain drew in the sands, plains and hills of
the Middle East, similarly sized Kurdish communities live in the
neighboring countries of Syria, Iraq and Iran. Together they inhabit
one large, almost continuous area called Kurdistan. Fortunately for
the Turks, the Kurds in these countries until recently faced similar
persecution as in Turkey. All these countries perceive their Kurds as
a threat to their territorial integrity. The most well know episode
of this repression came when Saddam Hussein used poison gas on Kurds
in Northern Iraq. That was by no means an exclusive example, but one
which at the time suited Western interests in the Middle East and thus
received widespread publicity in Western media. After decades of silent
complicity. Which brings us back to the cause of the recent change
in Turkish policies and the rising tension on Turkish-Syrian border.

When the USA decided to invade Iraq in 2003, Turkey correctly concluded
that the operation is pure hazard with an unpredictable outcome. In a
hope of minimizing the negative impact on Turkey itself, they decided
to keep strict neutrality and to not intervene, and went so far as
to refuse to allow their US and British NATO allies to use Turkish
territory and bases for an attack.

The US attack on Iraq and the occupation led to an all out civil
war inside the country and eventually broke Iraq into de facto Shia,
Sunni and Kurdish parts. All of a sudden Turkey was faced not just
with Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey, but, for the first time. also
with (de facto) an independent Kurdish state right on its borders
which could provide a safe haven (regroup and supply) area for Kurds
from inside Turkey. That was a disaster. The Turks tried to deal with
the situation with limited military incursions into Iraqi Kurdistan,
attempts to buy Kurdish leaders and reliance on the ability of their
US partners to keep the Kurds in check and prevent damage. Something
the Americans turned out not to be very capable at. Perhaps even
not willing.

The lesson Erdogan and the Turkish leadership sees to have learned
from the events in Iraq was likely that abstaining from conflicts in
the region will not shield Turkey from negative consequences and,
if Turkey can not prevent these conflicts, it's better that Turkey
participates in them and thus is at last able to protect its interests
by influencing the outcome.

When the USA and their NATO allies decided to change regimes in
Northern Africa and engaged in yet another imperial adventure in Libya,
following initial reluctance, Turkey agreed to join. And when the USA
then decided to start a war in Syria, Turkey jumped on the wagon,
probably on the promise of a quick victory and the instalment of a
new government of the Muslim Brotherhood, friendly to Turkey and its
ruling party. Ankara might have even expected such a government to
be a Turkish client. That certainly was the expectation of Riyadh,
another unfortunate victim of US Middle Eastern policies.

As is the rule with similar US foreign policies, they seldom work as
advertised. When Assad proved to be resilient, Ankara and Riyadh were
expecting Washington to do what it did in Libya and intervene under
the pretext of a no fly zone and an alleged protection of civilians,
a pretext well tested already in Yugoslavia. No man however steps
into the same river twice, wisdom already ancient Greeks understood.

After the disaster in Libya, opposition to intervention, led
prominently by Russia and China, proved to be stronger, and support
inside the USA and their British and French allies weaker than might
have been anticipated. A no fly zone did not materialize. Of note is,
that Turks and Saudis were its most outspoken proponents and they
insist on establishing a no fly zone in Syria (euphemism for a US led
intervention) till today. Meanwhile, Obama's administration walked
away, quietly thankful to the Russians for the face saving pretext
in form of the chemical weapons deal.

Regime change in Syria thus had to be accomplished solely through
proxies in the form of a colorful collection of various more or less
disgusting Sunny Islamic groups, both local and foreign. Turkey and
Saudi Arabia engaged in an enthusiastic support of these groups;
openly supporting those under the moderate name, and less openly
others, while publicly pretending to fight them as radicals and
terrorists. In reality. the only group Turkey ever really fought in
Syria were Kurds. Which is ironically probably the only significant
opposition group in Syria which really deserves name moderate.

Despite the catastrophic heterogeneity of these opposition groups,
which are willing to fight each other as much as they are willing
to fight Syrian government, it seemed that the government will be
eventually worn down in a war of attrition.

But then came the unexpected Russian intervention and, against
all assurances from Washington about the Russians having another
Afghanistan, it managed to turn the tables and forced the rebels
to what is increasingly looking like an all-out retreat. This is
a disaster of epic proportions for Turkey. Instead of a friendly
regime of the Muslim Brotherhood type in Damascus, which Ankara would
be able to control, they are faced with the creation of a second
Kurdish independent state on their borders. That's what has sent
the Turkish leadership into panic mode and that's why the Turks are
seemingly irrationally rising tensions on the border with Syria. In
my opinion, the downing of the Russian plane, the shelling of Kurds
and the concentration of military forces on the border, accompanied
with aggressive rhetoric, are not so much meant to threaten Russia or
Assad, they are first of all desperate attempts to force Washington
to lead an invasion in Syria at last. Which is probably something
Washington itself made Ankara and Riyadh expect in the first place.

Now Washington is being seen dragging their feet and backing out.

Neither Turkey, nor Saudi Arabia are likely to invade alone.

To conclude, the US policies of destabilizing countries and whole
regions to suit their geopolitical and economic interests in the last
decade or two proved to be often as damaging to US allies as they
are to US opponents. If not more. Another case in point of course
is the European migration crisis. What effect is that going to have
on relations between the USA and their allies on one side, and US
opponents on the other, remains to be seen. But it is reasonable to
expect that dissatisfaction with US leadership will be on the rise.

[Eddo211]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkey deserves all it gets......what would happen if NATO drops them out of the club and no chance of joining the EU ever? I say Turkey will become more dangerous.

[Artashes]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkey deserves all it gets......what would happen if NATO drops them out of the club and no chance of joining the EU ever? I say Turkey will become more dangerous.

Completely agree on "turc deserves all they get" , plus a lot more.
If NATO/eu dump the hominoid, then they have no where to turn. They can't play east against west because they burnt both bridges.
I say they become more stompable. If us/euro ever want to stop the hominoid, they can now count on Russia for assistance.
Who do they (hominoid) have to turn to? Sood or rag head fanatics?
That's all the conniving bigots have left themselves.
Smart monkee.

[Azad]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Turkey deserves all it gets......what would happen if NATO drops them out of the club

No, we do not want that. That will mess up our preferential connection with Russia. We want them to stay in NATO and be treated like crap.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Regional geopolitics

No, we do not want that. That will mess up our preferential connection with Russia. We want them to stay in NATO and be treated like crap.

No, they should be kicked out. It would make our job in promoting Armenians in the USA, France, and other parts of the diaspora easier.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Important government supply route to Aleppo remains cutoff by ISIS
By Leith Fadel -
28/02/2016

Rumors swirled around Syria on Saturday that the Syrian government’s only supply route to the Aleppo Governorate was recaptured by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and their allies after they secured the integral village of Hammam in northeast Hama.

As it turns out; this was not the case, as the so-called “Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham” (ISIS) enjoys full control over the Al-‘Azeeb Checkpoint that is located along the Sheikh Hilal-Ithriyah Road. Despite the news about the government supply route still being cutoff, the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” – in close coordination with Hezbollah, the Republican Guard, and the National Defense Forces (NDF) – were able to capture a number of points along the Sheikh Hilal-Ithriyah Road, leaving only the Al-‘Azeeb Checkpoint under ISIS control.

The Syrian Armed Forces are expected seize this last checkpoint in the coming hours, which will finally secure this important government supply route. However, the Syrian Armed Forces will have to build a larger buffer-zone around this important supply route to the Aleppo Governorate, as it has been cutoff by ISIS at least 2 times in the last 5 months.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...utoff-by-isis/ | Al-Masdar News

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Natalie McGarry: Turkey experience was 'terrifying'
27 February 2016
BBC

Ms McGarry, who was visiting Turkey as part of a delegation, said she was "very pleased" to have landed at Heathrow airport

A Scottish MP who was detained by security forces in Turkey has described the experience as "terrifying".
Natalie McGarry, who represents Glasgow East, was briefly held by authorities near a security checkpoint in the south-east of the country on Thursday.

Her lawyer later confirmed security forces became "alarmed" because she had her mobile phone out at a checkpoint.
He said she was "recording the sound of bombs" from Turkish forces falling on a Kurdish area of Sur in Diyarbakir.
The area is a flashpoint in the conflict between the Turkish government and the country's Kurdish population.


'Forcibly removed'

Writing in a series of tweets on Saturday, she said: "I was forcibly removed from the street by a man who pushed me repeatedly and would've hit me but for intervention of younger colleagues.

"I was denied access to an interpreter and taken into a shack behind the demarcation line which was filled with guns."
She said she was "relieved" after an interpreter was allowed in after 45 minutes.

'Absolute admiration'
She continued: "My absolute admiration to fellow delegates who stayed to support me & were increasingly worried by the shouting & swearing.
"Thank you also to the British Embassy who acted so swiftly to help secure my release. And everyone locally who was contacted & put pressure.
"Thanks also to the Kurdish population of Sur who came to welcome me out and hugged me when I cried. And they brought me chai and thanks."
Ms McGarry added: "I freely admit to crying when I was released. It was a terrifying experience albeit it only lasted a couple of hours.
"I cannot imagine if life was a constant struggle of fear like that everyday which is why Turkey's Nato partners need to demand it stop."
Ms McGarry sits as an independent MP. She withdrew from the SNP whip at Westminster in November after the Women for Independence group called in police over allegations that campaign funds appeared to have gone missing. She has denied any wrongdoing.

Earlier this year, the MP was involved in a high-profile Twitter spat with Harry Potter author JK Rowling. after resigning the SNP whip in the wake of an ongoing police investigation into missing donations from Women for Independence, the pro-Scottish independence group she founded. She denies any wrongdoing

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Iran, Azerbaijan moving towards strategic ties: Rouhani

News | 28.02.2016 | 00:02




PressTV - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says Iran and Azerbaijan are taking steps to bolster strategic relations in all fields.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran welcomes the expansion and reinforcement of cooperation with the Azerbaijan Republic in all sectors,” Rouhani said in a telephone conversation with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev on Saturday.

He added that the immediate implementation of the agreements reached between the two countries during the recent visit of the Azeri president to Tehran can help deepen bilateral and regional cooperation.

Rouhani expressed hope that the agreements would also prepare the ground for joint cooperation of Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia, particularly in the fields of transit, energy and trade.

On February 23, Iran and Azerbaijan signed 11 agreements and memoranda of understanding to improve and speed up cooperation in different fields.

The deals were signed by senior officials of Iran and Azerbaijan in the presence of the Iranian and Azeri presidents in Tehran.

Under the agreements, Tehran and Baku will strengthen cooperation in various sectors, including customs, animal husbandry, railway transportation, electricity, health and medical sciences, as well as oil and gas.

New chapter in Tehran-Baku relations: Aliyev

Aliyev said the implementation of the agreements between the two neighbors would open a new chapter in Tehran-Baku relations.

He added that the construction of a railway connecting Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan in line with the development of the key North-South transport corridor should be finalized as soon as possible.

Iran and Azerbaijan have been working on North-South transport corridor, which is expected to connect Northern Europe to Southeast Asia through their territories.

According to preliminary estimates, the overall capacity of the rail link will be 1.4 million passengers and 5-7 million metric tons of cargo a year.

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

back print



Syrian forces regain control of strategic road in Aleppo

News | 29.02.2016 | 16:10




PressTV - Syrian government forces have managed to retake control of a strategic road in northern Syria in a new major advancement that paves the way for purging the northern city of Aleppo of the Takfiri Daesh terrorists.

The Syrian forces liberated Khanasir-Ithriya road in the southeast of Aleppo Province from Daesh on Monday, and are currently defusing the explosive devices planted by the terrorist group.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the advance, adding that government forces engaged in battles with Daesh terrorists in the area.

The Syrian forces had been relying on the route to reach Aleppo because terrorists control the main highway to the city further west.

Syrian troops regained control of the village and the hill of Tal al-Hamam south of the town of Khanasir earlier on Monday. Khanasir, which lies 50 kilometers (30 miles) southeast of the city of Aleppo, had been liberated from terrorists on Friday.

Syria has been grappling with foreign-backed militancy since March 2011. According to a recent report by the Syrian Center for Policy Research, the conflict has claimed the lives of over 470,000 people, injured 1.9 million others, and displaced nearly half of the country’s pre-war population of about 23 million within or beyond its borders.