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Regional geopolitics

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  • #2431
    Re: Regional geopolitics

    Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
    Hold your popcorn.
    As long as major touristic sites, like Aya Sophia or Topkapi, Antalya are not seriously targeted, all this is controlled damage...

    ex uncontrolled damage is what happened to Tunisia or Egypt, or even Paris attacks...
    Syrian Kurds in 'Serious Danger' from Fallout of Ankara Bomb Attack
    14.03.2016


    The Turkish government may seek to use the terrorist attack in Ankara on Sunday to bolster its influence over the Geneva peace negotiations on Syria, Wladimir van Wilgenburg told Sputnik.

    It will be hard for the Turkish government to respond to the bomb attack that took place in Ankara on Sunday by stepping up its attacks on the Kurds in southeast Turkey because the level of conflict is already high, expert in Kurdish affairs Wladimir van Wilgenburg told Radio Sputnik.


    ​"I think the operations will continue and the clashes will continue between the PKK and the Turkish armed forces, but they might try to use it to put more pressure on America not to work with the Kurds in Syria," van Wilgenburg said.

    The Turkish armed forces are reportedly setting up what they call security zones close to the border with Syria, but Ankara is unlikely to take any further action unless it has the support of the international community, he said.

    "I've seen so far that Ankara is building a wall on the Turkish border because they want to stop Kurds crossing the border from Syria into Turkey, but I don't think this will push them for a safe zone because Turkey will not do anything if they don't have support from the US or NATO."

    Syrian government's head of delegation, Bashar al-Jaafari (L) and U.N. mediator for Syria Staffan de Mistura (R) attend a new round of negotiations between the Syrian government and U.N., at the European headquarters of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland March 14, 2016

    The Turkish government is likely to use the bombing in Ankara on Sunday to try and undermine the Kurds in Syria, but Turkey already has significant influence over the Geneva peace negotiations between the Syrian government and opposition groups, van Wilgenburg explained.
    "They will probably try to use it even more to delegitimize the Kurds in Syria and maybe try to link it to the Kurds in Syria but I think in general they already have a very high influence over the Geneva talks because most of the Syrian opposition is hosted in Turkey."



    Turkey Suspects 2 Ankara Attack Perpetrators of Being PKK Members

    It is not certain who is responsible for the attack on Sunday, but it could result in more violence from Turkish security forces and terrorist groups including Daesh, which has a presence in Turkey and has carried out bombings there in the past, he said.
    "We don't know yet who did the attack but if the conflict in the southeast of Turkey continues and Turkey keeps fighting with the PKK and they don't go back to the negotiation table, of course there's going to be more violence in Turkey in general."

    "It looks very serious because this is one of the few times that civilians have been bombed in the capital, and the bombing took place in an area where a lot of civilians commute. The first attack in Ankara targeted a military target, and this one seems to be targeting civilians."

    Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20...#ixzz42xCpZLbP

    Comment

    • #2432
      Re: Regional geopolitics



      Erdoğan became the subject of works by famous Brazilian caricature artist
      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

      Comment

      • #2433
        Re: Regional geopolitics

        Comment

        • #2434
          Re: Regional geopolitics

          Le départ des forces russes de Syrie change la donne pour Assad
          Le Figaro
          Par Georges Malbrunot
          15/03/2016

          Conformément à l'ordre donné quelques heures plus tôt par Vladimir Poutine, un premier groupe de bombardiers Su-34 et d'avions de transport Tupolev-154, avec à bord des techniciens et du matériel militaire, a décollé mardi matin de la base aérienne de Hmeimim, près de Lattaquié en Syrie, pour un retour en Russie. «Le repositionnement russe a commencé», constate l'opposant Haytham Manna, qui a ses entrées à Moscou.
          Au même moment ou presque, à une centaine de kilomètres de la grande ville côtière, les rebelles du Front al-Nosra, la branche locale d'al-Qaida, dispersaient une manifestation à Maarat al-Noman, cinq ans, jour pour jour, après le lancement de la révolte pacifique contre le pouvoir de Bachar el-Assad, qui s'est muée en une guerre civile aux multiples fronts. Pendant ce temps, à Genève, l'opposition se félicitait de ce retrait russe tout en restant circonspecte. Staffan de Mistura, l'émissaire de l'ONU en charge des pourparlers entre opposants et régime, évoquait, quant à lui, «un développement significatif», en espérant un «impact positif sur l'avancement des négociations» en vue d'une transition politique à Damas.
          Divergences sur la trêve

          Cet optimisme mesuré se nourrit d'un constat: sur le terrain, même si les insurgés accueillent la nouvelle avec parfois euphorie, les opérations militaires russes ne vont pas cesser. Engagée depuis plusieurs semaines, la bataille pour la reconquête du site archéologique de Palmyre entre les mains de Daech au contraire s'intensifie. L'aviation russe a encore transféré des hélicoptères de combat sur un aéroport voisin à l'est de Homs. De la même manière, les raids russes devraient continuer autour d'Alep, dans le Nord, et à l'est, en direction de Raqqa, la «capitale» de Daech en Syrie. Moscou, qui depuis le début de la trêve, le 27 février, a ralenti ses frappes contre les groupes modérés du Nord-Ouest, devrait maintenant concentrer ses attaques contre des positions djhadistes, plus à l'est du territoire. Il est encore trop tôt pour parler de «victoire contre les terroristes», a fait remarquer le porte-parole du Kremlin.

          Même si Dmitri Peskov nie l'existence de «divergences» entre Moscou et Damas, ce retrait surprise intervient bel et bien sur fond de frictions répétées entre Vladimir Poutine et son allié Bachar el-Assad. «Les Russes veulent que les Syriens les consultent avant de prendre des initiatives», résume un expert qui a ses entrées à Damas. Moscou a peu goûté que le jour de l'annonce de la trêve le 22 février, le régime syrien annonce des élections législatives pour le 13 avril. Les Russes considèrent que ces élections font partie des négociations sur la transition qui en a déjà fixé la date, dans un délai de 18 mois.
          «Poutine veut plus de flexibilité d'Assad dans le processus de transition mais Assad résiste à la volonté russe de vouloir maîtriser tous les éléments du jeu politique et militaire en Syrie»
          Un diplomate au Levant
          Selon nos informations, le ministre des Affaires étrangères syrien, Walid Mouallem, a également irrité Moscou en affirmant, vendredi dernier, que le sort d'Assad était «une ligne rouge». Un véritable défi lancé à son allié russe pour lequel «tout est négociable». Enfin, Bachar el-Assad n'était pas favorable à ce que la trêve commence dès fin février, préférant, au contraire, que son armée avance encore au nord d'Alep. «Pour les Syriens, ajoute l'expert, Moscou n'a pas encore atteint son objectif de fermer la frontière avec la Turquie» par où transitent, depuis des années, armes, argent et rebelles. Selon lui, «le courant serait mal passé entre Assad et Poutine», ces dernières semaines.
          Cliquez ici pour agrandir l'infographie
          Les Russes ont pris soin, toutefois, de prévenir leur allié syrien, «trois jours avant» l'annonce choc de Poutine. De discrètes discussions sur «la suite des opérations» ont eu lieu entre des hauts gradés syriens et le ministre russe de la Défense, Sergueï Choïgou. De la même manière, le vice-ministre russe des Affaires étrangères, Mikhail Bogdanov, a effectué fin février une visite surprise à Téhéran, pour aborder ce retrait avec le second allié du régime syrien.
          Soutien russe conditionné

          Entre Moscou et Damas, un mini bras de fer paraît engagé. «Poutine veut plus de flexibilité d'Assad dans le processus de transition, décrypte un diplomate au Levant, mais Assad résiste à la volonté russe de vouloir maîtriser tous les éléments du jeu politique et militaire en Syrie.»
          Plus de cinq mois de bombardements russes ont permis un retournement de la situation en faveur de l'armée syrienne. Le fief du pouvoir, à Lattaquié, est sécurisé. L'armée et les Iraniens se sont rapprochés d'Idleb, bastion d'al-Nosra, un peu plus au nord. Autour d'Alep, l'étau s'est desserré, et les loyalistes ont gagné des positions à l'est en direction de Raqqa. Quant au sud, grâce à ses bonnes relations avec le roi Abdallah, Poutine a réussi à neutraliser la Jordanie, base arrière des rebelles, permettant ainsi à l'armée et au Hezbollah de reprendre des positions. Mais sans une couverture aérienne russe aussi intense, toutes ces avancées pourront-elles être préservées par Damas?
          D'ores et déjà, les djihadistes d'al-Nosra ont prévu de lancer dans 48 heures une offensive contre l'armée régulière. «Les Russes n'ont pas intérêt à torpiller ce qu'ils ont conquis tout simplement parce que Poutine n'est pas content d'Assad, assure le diplomate. L'opposition ne doit pas rêver. Mais le régime recevra un soutien désormais conditionné aux avancées que les Russes exigeront. Nous sommes à un moment charnière.»

          Comment

          • #2435
            Re: Regional geopolitics

            Putin to Assad, Tehran: You want to carry on fighting? Count me out
            DEBKA
            March 14, 2016

            A deep rift with Tehran over the continuation of the Syrian war and an irreconcilable spat with Syrian ruler Bashar Assad over his future prompted Russian President Vladimir’s shock order Monday, March 14, for the “main part” of Russian military forces to quit Syria the next morning. This is reported by DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources.
            The final limits of the military withdrawal, five months after the Moscow embarked on its intervention, were not defined. But the Kremlin did say that Moscow would retain a military presence at the naval port of Tartous and the Hmeymim airbase outside Latakia. This left the bulk of Russian military aerial and naval presence in situ; Putin is unlikely to give up this strong foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean.

            The Russian president did not fix a timeline for the military withdrawal – only its start. Neither did he promise to discontinue all military operations in Syria.
            He did say only that “The task put before the defense ministry and Russian armed forces has on the whole been fulfilled” and he spoke of a “fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism.”

            A sign of where Moscow as heading now was disclosed by his order to the Russian foreign Minister to “Intensify our participation in a peaceful solution of the Syrian conflict”
            This was a reference to the UN-brokered talks resuming in Geneva Tuesday, March 15, between the warring sides of the Syrian conflict.
            DEBKAfile’s intelligence circles noted that, after Putin’s bolt from the blue, Russian warships in the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas remain ready to interfere in the fighting from a distance, if the Assad regime’s situation deteriorates. They saw an omen of Moscow’s impending military exit in last month’s massive delivery to the Syrian army of advanced T-90 tanks and heavy self-propelled artillery.

            Western sources viewed the shipments as further Russian investment in high-stakes Syrian military victories in the battles for Aleppo in the north and Deraa in the south.
            But this assumption was negated by the Kremlin announcement Monday. The tanks and artillery were, in fact, provided to enable Syria and its Iranian ally to carry on fighting without Russian support.

            The rift between Moscow and Tehran over the Syrian war came to a head on Feb. 19 during Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Hossein Dehghan’s visit to Moscow. The Iranian minister presented his government’s demand for Russia to back away from its deal with the US for a Syrian ceasefire.

            Tehran wants the war to continue without pause. After walking hand in hand with Moscow in the Syrian arena for a time, the Iranians were aghast to find Putin turning aside and entering into collaboration with the Obama administration for an end to hostilities and a political solution to the conflict.

            As for Assad, he has no intention of playing along with Putin’s plans for him to step down and hand over rule in Damascus in stages. Assad does not mean to quit at any time.
            The Russian president may have acted now because he was simply fed up with the interminable bickering with his two allies, which was going nowhere except for the continuation of the calamitous five-year war. He therefore presented them with a tough fait accompli. If you want to carry on fighting, fine; but count the Russian army out of it.

            Comment

            • #2436
              Re: Regional geopolitics

              Reading the Kurds intention to form their own state within Syria under the guise of federalization.
              The Kurds were never fighting for Syria, but rather to grab land to form their own country.
              The Kurds have been taking advantage of the chaotic tearing apart of Syria for their benifit.
              The Kurds have been attempting to --- CLEANSE --- all the lands they desire of all non Kurds.
              The Kurd flights for no one but the Kurd.
              The Kurd is and has been an active participant of the heartless tearing apart of Syria.
              The Kurd hasn't changed and ain't gonna.
              The Kurd is nothing more than a heartless , thieving, murdering, terrorist slim ball.
              Thet are Kurds.

              Comment

              • #2437
                Re: Regional geopolitics

                Syria conflict: Kurds to declare federal system
                bbc


                Kurdish parties say they are planning to declare a new federal system in areas they control in northern Syria.

                The Kurds already operate "autonomous administrations" in three enclaves bordering Turkey - Afrin and Kobane in Aleppo province and Jazira in Hassakeh.
                The federal system would also include predominantly Arab and Turkmen areas captured from so-called Islamic State.
                The idea was dismissed by Syrian government negotiators at peace talks in Geneva and by Turkey's government.
                Both stressed the need to preserve Syria's national unity and territorial integrity.
                'Unilateral decision'
                Kurds made up between 7% and 10% of Syria's population of 24.5 million before the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began five years ago.
                Map showing territorial control in the Syrian conflict (23 February 2016)
                Although they were denied basic rights and suffered decades of political suppression by the Arab-led state, most Kurds avoided taking sides when a wave of protests swept the country.
                When government forces withdrew from Kurdish areas to concentrate on fighting predominantly Arab rebels elsewhere in mid-2012, Kurdish militias swiftly took control, led by the Popular Protection Units (YPG) of the Democratic Union Party (PYD).
                In January 2014, the PYD and other Kurdish parties created autonomous administrations based in the enclaves, or "cantons", of Afrin, Kobane and Jazira.
                They stressed at the time that they were not seeking independence from Syria, but "local democratic administration" within a federal framework.
                Syrian Kurdish representatives attend a conference in Rmeilan on 16 March 2016Image copyrightReuters
                Image caption
                Kurdish officials said the federal system would represent all ethnic groups
                In September 2014, the jihadist group Islamic State (IS) launched an assault on Kobane, prompting tens of thousands of people to flee to Turkey. With the help of US air power, the YPG regained control of the town after a four-month battle.
                Since then, the YPG has inflicted a series of defeats on IS and established control over 26,000 sq km (10,000 sq miles) of Syria, according to one estimate, including a 400km (250-mile) stretch of territory along the Turkish border.
                The plan to create a federal system to administer the three cantons and the territory captured from IS was circulated ahead of a meeting of about 200 Kurdish representatives in the town of Rmeilan on Wednesday.
                Kurdish official Idris Nassan told the Reuters news agency that a federal arrangement would widen "the framework of self-administration that the Kurds and others have formed" and would represent all ethnic groups.
                YPG fighters carry their weapons on a pick-up truck in Qamishli, Syria (11 March 2016)Image copyrightReuters
                Image caption
                The Kurds have emerged as a key ally of the US-led coalition battle against IS
                An official declaration was expected on Wednesday but was postponed for "logistical reasons" and because of concerns expressed by local Arab and Assyrian communities, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
                When asked about the Kurdish plan, the Syrian government's chief negotiator at the peace talks in Geneva said he would not comment on "unilateral statements coming from here and there".
                But he warned: "Betting on creating any kind of divisions among the Syrians will be a total failure."
                Turkey, which backs Syria's opposition and sees the PYD as an extension of the rebel Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), also rejected the idea.
                "Syria's national unity and territorial integrity is fundamental for us. Outside of this, unilateral decisions cannot have validity," a foreign ministry official told Reuters.

                Comment

                • #2438
                  Re: Regional geopolitics

                  Looks like none of the countries of the region are willing to get the kurds a homeland. US and Russia care less of their useless existence.
                  Seems like turks will be using them for target practice. If they had two inches of brain they will move their war into turkey.

                  Comment

                  • #2439
                    Re: Regional geopolitics

                    Originally posted by Vrej1915 View Post
                    Putin to Assad, Tehran: You want to carry on fighting? Count me out
                    DEBKA
                    March 14, 2016
                    Russia´s success
                    https://www.rt.com/shows/crosstalk/335751-military-assets-syria-russia
                    Vladimir Putin's announcement that he had ordered the withdrawal of military assets from Syria was as surprising as when he informed the world of Russia’s intention to intervene months ago


                    .
                    Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                    Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                    Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                    Comment

                    • #2440
                      Re: Regional geopolitics

                      Breaking: Russian Air Force hammers ISIS in Palmyra

                      By Leith Fadel - 16/03/2016

                      https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...-isis-palmyra/ | Al-Masdar News

                      Minutes ago in the Palmyra (Tadmur) countryside, the Russian Air Force launched a powerful series of airstrikes over the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham’s (ISIS) positions, hitting several targets near the strategic town of Al-Sukhanah in the eastern countryside of the Homs Governorate. In addition to striking Al-Sakhanah, the Russian Air Force has provided air cover to the advancing soldiers from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the vicinity of Palmyra. The town of Al-Sakanah is surrounded by several important oil fields that have provided ISIS with a substantial amount of revenue from their oil sales. According to an Al-Masdar correspondent in Damascus, the Russian Air Force is continuing their aerial campaign to weaken ISIS around Syria and they have not let up, despite reducing their force inside Syria.

                      .
                      Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                      Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                      Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                      Comment

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