Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

ԱՄՆ դժգոհ է Թուրքիայի՝ չինական ՀՕՊ համակարգերի ընտրությունից
Սեպտեմբեր 30, 2013 by Գևորգ Պետրոսյան

Միացյալ Նահանգներն իր դժգոհությունն է հայտնել Թուրքիայի կողմից չինական հակաօդային պաշտպանության համակարգեր գնելու որոշման վերաբերյալ։

Համապատասխան հայտարարությունն արել է ԱՄՆ-ի պետքարտուղարության մամուլի խոսնակը, տեղեկացնում է «Ռոյթերս» գործակալությունը։


«Մենք մեր լրջագույն մտահոգությունն ենք հայտնում ամերիկյան պատժամիջոցների ենթարկվող չինական ընկերության և թուրքական կառավարության միջև պայմանագիր կնքելու կապակցությամբ։ Այդ համակարգերը չեն կարողանա համատեղվել ՆԱՏՕ-ի ՀՕՊ համակարգին»,-նշել է պետդեպարտամենտի ներկայացուցիչը։

Հիշեցնենք, որ սեպտեմբերի 26-ին Թուրքիայի ռազմարդյունաբերական հանձնաժողովի նիստի ժամանակ մեծ հեռավորության ՀՕՊ համակարգի մրցույթի արդյունքներով որոշում էր կայացվել ձեռք բերել Չինաստանը ներկայացնող China Precision Machinery Export-Import Corp. (CPMIEC) ընկերության HQ-9 (FD-2000) զենիթահրթիռային կայանները։

Չինական տարբերակի ընտրությունը բացատրվել էր տեղում համատեղ արտադրություն հիմնելու հնարավորությամբ և մատչելի արժեքով։ Պայմանագիրը գնահատվում է 3-4 մլրդ ամերիկյան դոլար։

Մրցույթին մասնակցում էին նաև ամերիկյան «Փեթրիոթ» (Patriot PAC3), ռուսական Ս-300 կամ Ս-400, ֆրանս-իտալական Սամպ Տ (Samp T) ՀՕՊ համակարգերը։

[Haykakan]

Re: Regional geopolitics

People's Daily , China
Sept 29 2013

Armenian president visits Chinese embassy

(Xinhua) 08:33, September 29, 2013


YEREVAN, Sept. 28 -- Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan visited the
Chinese embassy here Saturday to express congratulation for the
upcoming 64th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of
China.

The president congratulated the Chinese people and Chinese President
Xi Jinping in particular on the Oct. 1 occasion and expressed his
satisfaction with Armenian-Chinese political and economic relations.

He stressed China's importance to Armenian foreign policy both in the
region and worldwide, and took the opportunity to invite Xi to his
country.

Chinese ambassador Tian Changchun said China was proud of its
relationship with Armenia, which he described as China's most reliable
partner in the region.

Armenia and China forged diplomatic relations on April 6, 1992.
ï¼?Editorï¼?YaoChunã?Liang Junï¼?

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90883/8413185.html

[Artsakh]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Wow, what a positive assessment of the situation in Azerbaijan by the all-noble "Associated Press." Here's a true example of how easily the "free media" can turn a blind eye and paint with colorful colors the situation of countries that bend their a$$es over backwards to the West. Reading this, one would think it's coming from Azeri State media. Even these foolish AP writers, while minimizing the brutal suppression going on in Azerbaijan, don't attempt to hide the reason behind such praise for Aliev, that being how important Azerbaijan is to the west. In other words, if you suit the wests interests and bend over backwards to them, they will not criticize you and turn a blind eye to brutal suppression of your people.

Some quotes I found particularly notable:

Oil-rich Azerbaijan is booming and the wealth is trickling down to its poorest people.

his government has magnanimously eased tight restrictions on the opposition and allowed it to freely convene for rallies in the center of the capital

he has firmly allied the Shia Muslim nation with the West, helping secure its energy and security interests and offset Russia's influence in the strategic Caspian region.

Under Aliyev, the nation of 9 million has basked in oil riches that have more than tripled its gross domestic product and transformed the once-gritty capital, Baku, into a shining modern city.

Ali Ahmadov, the executive secretary of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan party, said the president doesn't need to campaign because his frequent trips across the country have brought him close to the people.

Aliyev's glamorous wife Mehriban, who is a lawmaker and heads a charity, has helped his popularity. "She has drawn the sympathy of many, including some of those who are in opposition,"

The son has presented himself as a guarantor of stability, an image that appeals to many in Azerbaijan, where painful memories are still fresh of the turmoil that accompanied the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.

The government, however, loosened the reins ahead of the ballot, withdrawing its long-held ban on rallies in the center of the capital.

While leaving little breathing space for his domestic foes, Aliyev has expanded energy and security ties with the West, becoming an indispensable regional partner for the United States and the European Union.

In the future, Azerbaijan would be a necessary conduit for any prospective pipelines under the Caspian to carry energy resources from Central Asian nations to Western markets.

Azerbaijan has further strengthened its relations with the West by contributing troops to the U.S.-led missions in Afghanistan and Iraq and serving as a key supply route for U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

As windfall oil revenues have filtered down to Azerbaijan's poorest, the opposition has found it hard to assail the government's economic policies

Gyulnara Samedova, a 47-year-old housewife who watched the debates, said nobody in her family was impressed by any of the challengers.

"All we heard were mutual accusations and insults, nothing like a program for the country's development," she said. "We will vote for stability."

Azerbaijan's president set for easy re-election

BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) � Oil-rich Azerbaijan is booming and the wealth is trickling down to its poorest people. It all means that its president doesn't even need to clamp down too hard to ensure he extends a decades-long dynastic rule in elections this week.

Ilham Aliyev appears to be so certain of his popularity that his government has magnanimously eased tight restrictions on the opposition and allowed it to freely convene for rallies in the center of the capital � only to see the events draw tepid crowds of a few thousand. Aliyev hasn't even really bothered to campaign for Wednesday's election, confident that the cult of personality that has sprung up around him is sincere.

Aliyev looks and sounds like a Western statesman � sporting immaculately tailored suits and speaking fluent English � but he has in the past shown little tolerance for dissent and extended his rule through elections criticized by Western observers. At the same time, he has firmly allied the Shia Muslim nation with the West, helping secure its energy and security interests and offset Russia's influence in the strategic Caspian region.

That strategy has translated into fabulous wealth.

Under Aliyev, the nation of 9 million has basked in oil riches that have more than tripled its gross domestic product and transformed the once-gritty capital, Baku, into a shining modern city. The State Oil Fund that accumulates oil revenues held $34 billion as of the start of the year.



..View gallery."
FILE - In this Monday, July 13, 2009 file photo, Azerbaijan �
FILE - In this Monday, July 13, 2009 file photo, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and his wife Mehr �

With his political foes weakened by years of relentless government pressure and bitter infighting, Aliyev is all but certain to roll over the main opposition challenger and eight fringe candidates on Wednesday.

Ali Ahmadov, the executive secretary of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan party, said the president doesn't need to campaign because his frequent trips across the country have brought him close to the people. "There is no need for the head of state to engage in propaganda during the election campaign," Ahmadov said.

Aliyev's glamorous wife Mehriban, who is a lawmaker and heads a charity, has helped his popularity. "She has drawn the sympathy of many, including some of those who are in opposition," said Elkhan Shahinoglu, an independent political analyst.

Aliyev inherited the presidency from his father, Geidar Aliyev, who had ruled Azerbaijan first as the Communist Party boss and then as a post-Soviet president for the greater part of three decades. The son has presented himself as a guarantor of stability, an image that appeals to many in Azerbaijan, where painful memories are still fresh of the turmoil that accompanied the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.

Soon after the elder Aliyev lost his job in a shakeup of the Communist elite launched by Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, Azerbaijan plunged into an armed conflict with neighboring Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The six-year war left ethnic Armenian forces in control of Nagorno-Karabakh and neighboring areas in Azerbaijan and turned 1 million Azerbaijanis into refugees.



..View gallery."
FILE - In this Saturday, April 2, 2011 file photo protesters �
FILE - In this Saturday, April 2, 2011 file photo protesters wave national flags as they rally in Ba �

Amid public anger over military defeats, Azerbaijan's first president, Ayaz Mutalibov, stepped down and fled the country in 1992. His successor, Abulfaz Elchibey, was ousted the following year in a rebellion that paved way for Geidar Aliyev's triumphant return to power.

Aliyev senior fully dominated the political scene, and just a few months before his death secured his son's victory in an October 2003 presidential election that drew Western observer criticism over massive violations and triggered violent clashes between protesters and police.

Initially dismissed by foes as a pale shadow of his powerful father, Ilham Aliyev quickly consolidated his power and stifled dissent. He was re-elected by a landslide in a 2008 vote boycotted by major opposition parties and again criticized by Western observers. He then rammed through a constitutional referendum that scrapped presidential term limits.

International rights groups have accused him of pressuring and harassing government critics. Human Rights Watch said in a report last month that the clampdown on freedom of expression and assembly had intensified in the months preceding the vote. The government, however, loosened the reins ahead of the ballot, withdrawing its long-held ban on rallies in the center of the capital.

While leaving little breathing space for his domestic foes, Aliyev has expanded energy and security ties with the West, becoming an indispensable regional partner for the United States and the European Union.



..View gallery."
FILE - In this Saturday, May 26, 2012 file photo, the �
FILE - In this Saturday, May 26, 2012 file photo, the Baku Crystal Hall is lit by lights prior to th �

BP, ExxonMobil and other Western oil giants have invested billions of dollars to tap Azerbaijan's oil riches. An oil pipeline backed by the U.S. and the European Union to pump Azerbaijani crude via Georgia to Turkey, bypassing Russia, went into operation in 2005, a pivotal element in a Western strategy to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy resources.

In the future, Azerbaijan would be a necessary conduit for any prospective pipelines under the Caspian to carry energy resources from Central Asian nations to Western markets.

Azerbaijan has further strengthened its relations with the West by contributing troops to the U.S.-led missions in Afghanistan and Iraq and serving as a key supply route for U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Azerbaijan's ties with neighboring Iran, which has a sizable ethnic Azeri community, have grown strained in recent years as Tehran has become vexed by Azerbaijan's growing security cooperation with the United States and Israel. Last year, the Azerbaijani security agency arrested dozens of people allegedly hired by Iran to carry out terrorist attacks against the U.S. and Israeli embassies as well as Western-linked groups and companies.

While Aliyev's foes have compared him to autocratic rulers ousted by the Arab Spring uprisings and warned that he could face a similar fate, experts see few parallels between the former Soviet Union and the developments in the Middle East.



..View gallery."
FILE - In this Saturday, April 2, 2011 file photo, �
FILE - In this Saturday, April 2, 2011 file photo, Azerbaijani police officers in riot gear detain a �

"These are different societies at different levels of development," said Irina Zvyagelskaya, a leading expert with Moscow's Institute of Oriental Studies. "What happened in the Arab world can't serve as a model for the ex-Soviet lands."

The opposition's hopes of challenging Aliyev suffered a humiliating setback when election officials refused to register its original candidate on the grounds that he had dual Russian and Azerbaijani citizenship, something explicitly banned by the constitution.

As windfall oil revenues have filtered down to Azerbaijan's poorest, the opposition has found it hard to assail the government's economic policies, and the main opposition candidate, historian Jamil Hasanli, focused on government corruption and social inequality.

Gyulnara Samedova, a 47-year-old housewife who watched the debates, said nobody in her family was impressed by any of the challengers.

"All we heard were mutual accusations and insults, nothing like a program for the country's development," she said. "We will vote for stability."

__

Associated Press writer Vladimir Isachenkov reported from Moscow.

[hagopn]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Once again, turn it 180 °.....
Haykakan, if till now, after reading all the elements of this tread, not saying the rest, you did not distinguish Turkey from the "West", then my dear, your clock is gripped by the coldness of the past war.....
Unfortunately for us, Turks and Russians do cooperate, or try to, and systematically, the first "good gesture" of Russia is at our expense..., and for that, yes, please do have some "historic memory"..... (once again: reason of Russian behavior being blind and unfounded, sometimes criminally corrupted russophilia propagated among our people)


Gamavor Gurutyune ANPUJELI e....

Agreed on the blind and unfounded Russophilia, which in turn is counterbalanced and often overshadowed by the blind and stupid reliance on "the west" and its so-called "working (suicidal) value system."

Russophobia is what I categorize as the nonsense spewed out by remnants of HHSh such as Ashot Bleyan and his utterly ridiculous Turkic apologetic.

[hagopn]

Re: Regional geopolitics

My dear, your points about "there is a reason why we group turky with the west. Turkey has the biggest army in the west(excluding USA), it is part of all western structures(nato, eu,..), it has tremendous influence in that region" demonstrates nothing;

Indeed, during all Cold War,Turkey was at best a third class member of the West, first being the US, second France & UK (A bomb holders, ex Empires with substantial influence overseas..), third including West Germany, Italy, Spain....
It was a small and obeying dog, who's interest were cared about, even at the expense of other "Western'' partners, of less value, like Greece & Cyprus.
But as you state, things have greatly changed since.
Nowday's Turkey is an ambitious and would be autonomous, if not independent player, threatening the state of interests of the "West", mainly in the ME & the Balkans.. it is incomparably more powerful, than the previous technological & economical insect it was in the 60-s... reason why, it is a major headake for the same "West" , primarily for the EU (i.e; Franco-Germany), but as well for the US.
Isn't it the US who revived the Kurdish nightmare out of the Blue??

Interesting point(s). Indeed, it has been the case that since 1994, according to Greek intelligence sources as reported by Armenian military strategists and so on, that the Turkish military paradigm has changed from a possible intra-territorial theatre to an extra-territorial theatre, which implies that Turkish military leaders are confident in having the upper hand in any regional preemptive strike option. The situation is certainly different when viewed from these facts.

The Kurdish Card as a US control switch has been used as an argument within radial islamist factions in Turkey for the most part, and perhaps they are correct. That's a hard one to gauge. The activation of the PKK was a Soviet led project, and the US "sponsorship" is most likely a spillover from Iraqi ambitions (and now Syrian ambitions).

On a more tangible and practical field, concerning our fate:
Isn't it the US (+ "EU") who managed to stop the russian plan of returning Artsakh to Baku in 2008-2009, under Medvedev run?

I seriously doubt that. Consult Rand McNally's atlas and look at the political map of Armenia and Azerbaijan. That's a US publication. Guess what? Artsakh doesn't exist! Russians are as wary of Pan-Turkism, and more so, than ever before. You contradict yourself.

I would like to see real documentation, and not some leftover HHSh "news source." The Russians use such scare tactics as leverage against any Armenian attempts at independence. I grant you and second your opinion that Russian "alliance" is among the least consistent and trustworthy political phenomena out there, but Russians are still the (however slightly) lesser of the many geopolitical evils.

So things are not withe and Black.
And "West" definitely does not coincide to Turkey, and vice versa...

True, more so as time passes and as Turkey aligns itself with the ever growing islamic economic powers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran (yes, Iran), Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and so on. They are quietly forming their own "economic union" at an alarmingly fast pace. Who's allowing for this? I seriously doubt it would be Russians, who would stand to lose immensely in the event Turkish hegemonic ambitions were realized.

Yet again, the validity of "Russia standing against Turkey" is very questionable, for our actual period.

Not questionable at all, hence all the military cooperation rhetoric with the Central Asia turkics. Russians are as paranoid as ever about that.

For the last decade, Russia & Turkey are more like dishonest partners, trying to play friends .... and ready to do good gestures (Russia selling our vital interests as a first step), than enemies...

Hey, they're both imperialists. Dishonesty and posturing is part of the package. Why are we expecting anything else? Yet, to expect actual Russia-Turkey alliances is absurd.

If Armenia is important to Russia, let the Russians say and demonstrate it, first by not betraying our vital interests, every now and then...., at first occasion, since impunity is garanteed, thanks to "our Russophilia"...
The more ungrounded, blind Russophilia will prevail in Armenia, or among Armenians, the more Russia will treat us as the least valuable of its Mujiks. (i.e: No matter what they allow themselves to do, how bad they beat or sell us, it doesn't change anything, we will still 'love' them....)

Let me put it again on record that I agree with you on the dangers that Russophilia or any other "philia" pose. Pardon my forwardness, but you seem to be exhibiting Euro-philia and Amero-philia, you know, "those who saved Arstakh from being given to Azeribaijan by the Ugly Russkie".

Just let me remind the last Russians bastard behaviors, only from the period after the Genocide:
- Kemal /Lenin bargain, which costed us put aside our Statehood, Kars/Ardahan/Surmalu (a province never been under Turkish yoke before 1920)
- Dismembering of already Soviet Armenia from Nakhitchevan, Northern Artsakh and NKAO, plus Javakhk and Treghk for Georgia..
- Stalin demanding Kars/Ardahan/Surmalu not for Soviet Armenia, but for Soviet Georgia after WWII.
- Operation Koltzo in 1991.
- Occupation of Shahumian & Martakert in June 1992.
- Medvedev plan in 2008.....
- Selling of the S-300, largely undermining our offensive capabilities, at least on Baku, the only target valuable for their regime...
- The newest huge arm deals, of offensive weaponery....

It is not the West who arms Baku, it is Moskva first.....

I can add to that list of yours the Russian imperial "assistance" starting with the Russo-Ottoman war (1878) where Russians merely sent in a tentative force, managed to agitate the muslim population against Armenians, only to subsequently pull out and burn their weapons caches, something they did more than once, causing the deaths of untold numbers of Armenian peasantry and townsfolk. Let's face it, they are imperialists whose "interests" consist of gains for their prominent movers and shakers. Baku buying arms from Moscow as well as London, Paris, Brussels, Washington, Tel Aviv, etc? Hey, "it's business."

So, when do we get to have dibs on such business and make some territorial gains?

All this does not mean, that the "West" is a perfect ally.

understatement.

But at least, it might be as useful, as the perfectly untrusted Russia... who acts as anything, but a "Strategic partner"....

"Useful." I like that word. Then we agree totally!

[hagopn]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Wow, what a positive assessment of the situation in Azerbaijan by the all-noble "Associated Press."

LOL. It reads like a tourist brochure!

[hagopn]

Re: Regional geopolitics

WARNING: ICG is a Brussels based propaganda 'think tank", normally speaking for the USA "unoficial point of view". As a matter of fact, this firm is very well infiltrated by Turks, sponsored oficially and under the table by Baku, .... even one of the girls at the reception is a turk..., so all reports concerning Turkey, or Azarbaijan must be considered as sponsored by turks, and fully biased.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/F...n-of-risks.pdf

I agree and second that. ICG is a lobbyist for Turkish and Azeri interests and nothing more.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Bushehr builder Kiriyenko is live wire in Obama-Khamenei backdoor dialogue. Putin gives impetus
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
October 13, 2013,


Sergei Kiriyenko, director of the Russian Atomic Agency Rosatom and the builder of Iran’s first nuclear reactor at Bushehr, is one of the live wires behind the secret deal on Iran’s nuclear program worked out between the White House in Washington, the Kremlin in Moscow and the Tehran office of Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is revealed by DEBKAfile’s sources in Washington, Moscow and Tehran.
Kiryenko, one of Putin’s most trusted adviser on nuclear affairs, divided his time in July and August between Tehran, Moscow and the southern Iranian town of Bushehr. There, he set up a team of Farsi-speaking Russian nuclear scientists for start-ups of joint Russian-Iranian nuclear projects.
Those scientists are most likely the only foreigners personally familiar with all the key players of Iran’s nuclear program, including those known to Russian intelligence to be engaged in weapons work.
According to our sources, President Putin drafted this team into the project for drawing up, under Kiriyenko’s guidance, the text of a nuclear accord for Tehran and Washington to sign.
This text was to be modeled on the US-Russian accord for the elimination of Syria’s chemical weapons that Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov concluded in Geneva on Sept. 14.
Then, too, a Russian team was employed through the month of August to collate all the US, Russian and Syrian position papers on the subject, translate them into diplomatic language and compile accords, most of whose sections remain classified up to the present, except for those applying to implementation in the field.
That team was headed by Russian deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov, holder of the Syrian portfolio in the Russian foreign ministry, in Putin’s Kremlin bureau and in Russian intelligence.
A tight veil of secrecy has been drawn by Washington, Moscow, Damascus and Tehran over the two Russian teams for Syria and Iran and their mode of operation.
However, DEBKAfile’s sources can reveal how the mechanism has worked for producing a document of understanding between Washington and Tehran:
The general framework of the document was drafted by Presidents Barack Obama and Putin and passed to Kiriyenko and his team. They broke it down into segments or topics and analyzed them one by one against the current state of Iran’s nuclear program. The paper was then put before the Iranian experts and developed, section by section, into an agreed Russian-Iranian text.
Sergei Kiriyenko then went into action on the two tasks assigned him by Putin:
1. To bring the Russian-Iranian draft in line with the US-Russian accord.
2. If the Iranian experts balked at the draft, Kiriyenko was to turn to higher authority in Tehran - President Hassan Rouhani or Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran-AEOI to clear up points of disagreement.
If they too withheld approval of the draft, Kiriyenko put their objections before President Putin. He was to get together with Obama and return to the drawing board to compile a revised accord..
A senior Israeli defense official on a visit to Washington was asked last week what answer Ayatollah Khamenei would receive if he asked Salehi: “Can we develop a nuclear weapon whenever we want?” The answer would be “Yes,” said the Israeli official.
After the two presidents saw eye to eye, the text was referred to Secretary Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov, to be couched in formal language as accords. Buts of those documents will be put on the negotiating table as agreed proposals when the Six Powers and Iran meet in Geneva on Oct. 15.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Exclusive: Obama forewarns Netanyahu that sanctions against Iran will soon be partially lifted
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November(??) 13, 2013,



President Barack Obama has notified Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that his administration will soon start the partial and gradual easing of economic sanctions against Iran, DEBKAfile reports exclusively from its Washington and Jerusalem sources. The reduction would apply to “non-significant” yet “substantial” sanctions, the message said.
Israel is the only American ally to receive prior warning of this decision - and the only one to be briefed in detail of the understandings Washington has reached with Tehran, including Iran’s concessions on its nuclear program. Neither European, nor Persian Gulf leaders led by Saudi Arabia have been let in on the scale of reciprocal concessions approved by Obama and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
These concessions will start coming to light when they are put on the table of the nuclear negotiations beginning in Geneva on Oct. 15 between Iran and the P5+1 group (five Security Council permanent members and Germany).
Meanwhile, high-ranking British, French and other European emissaries arrived in Jerusalem Thursday night. They said they were coming to discuss the latest developments on the Iranian question, but their real purpose was to discover the content of Obama’s message to the Israeli prime minister.
A high-placed American source told DEBKAfile early Thursday: “The American-Iranian cake is already in the oven and half done.
In its latest issue, out last Friday, DEBKA Weekly divulged in detail the content of the understandings reached between Washington and Tehran, how they were handled and the live wires acting as liaison in the secret exchanges. Exclusive articles also discussed the strategic, political and military ramifications of the deals struck between Washington and Tehran.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Regional geopolitics

Syrian tanks lay siege to key rebel-held town athwart Damascus-Golan highway
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 8, 2013,


Two Syrian armored brigades set out from Damascus Monday night, Oct. 7, to link up with forces already fighting in southern Syria to reach Quneitra opposite the Israeli Golan border. DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report long convoys of around 200 tanks, APCs, armored vehicles and self-propelled artillery are heading for an assembly-point south of the Daraa in the south.
Large Syrian forces tightened their siege through Tuesday night, Oct. 8, on the rebel-held town of Khan Arnabeh which is the key to controlling the main highway from the capital, Damascus Syrian Golan.The town is expected to fall within a short time. Its capture also provides the key to the central crossroads around the Golan town of Quneitra and will enable the Syria army to return to its former positions along the disengagement zone dividing the enclave between Syria and Israel, which is patrolled by UN peacekeepers.
The Syrian army is saturating Khan Arnabeh with concentrated fire from tanks, aircraft and self-propelled artillery. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that rebel resistance is light – and not only on the Golan. Western military sources report that the rebels are fighting half-heartedly in other battle sectors across Syria with little spirit to do more than hold their ground.
During the day, as the battles came closer to the Israeli border, the IDF ordered the crews working on the Golan security fence to leave the area for their own safety.
DEBKAfile reported Monday nigh that the Syrian air force bombarded rebel-held border villages to soften them up ahead of the offensive.
The size and movements of the advancing Syrian forces indicate that the regime in Damascus has determined to root out the rebel presence in all parts of Syrian border with Israel - from the Hermon Mts. in the north, down to the Syrian-Israel-Jordanian border junction opposite the southern Israeli Golan.
The main body is presently on the move in the area between the Yarmuk River which marks the Syrian Jordanian border and Quneitra.
The Syrian rebel forces clinging to small locations along the Israeli border are small and not expected to last long under a sizeable Syria military assault, one of whose objectives is undoubtedly to sever the links between rebel positions on the Golan and the IDF.
The only outward sign of those links is the regular transfer of injured rebels to Israeli hospitals for medical treatment - an estimated 200 have so far been treated.
Until now, the Syrian high command held back from a military operation in this region for fear of drawing forth an Israeli or Jordanian counter-attack. However, after consenting to the disabling of its chemical weapons, the Assad regime feels confident that neither Israel nor Jordan will dare fight back.
Syrian leaders gained an even greater sense of immunity from the rare words they head from US Secretary of State John Kerry Monday, commending them for allowing UN experts to dismantle the chemical production equipment and stocks, even though it suddenly turned out Sunday, Oct. 6 that the international OPCW experts had relegated the work to the Syrian army.
Jordan has responded to the heavy Syrian military movements in close proximity to its territory by putting on a state of preparedness the two army divisions, Nos. 60 and 40, which stand guard on its border with Syria.