Regional geopolitics

[Vrej1915]

Թուրքիան պատրաստվում է վատթարագույնին. Թրամփի «արբիտրաժն» ու Սեւրը

• • ՆԱԻՐԱ ՀԱՅՐՈՒՄՅԱՆ, Մեկնաբան
  • Մեկնաբանություն - 07 Դեկտեմբերի 2017

• 

Այսօր Թուրքիայի նախագահը 65 տարվա մեջ առաջին անգամ այցելեց Հունաստան: Այցից մի քանի ժամ առաջ հունական Skai հեռուստաընկերությանը տված հարցազրույցում Էրդողանը հայտարարել է, որ Լոզանի խաղաղության պայմանագիրը վերանայման կարիք ունի:



«Մենք կարող ենք քննարկել ամեն ինչ՝ ալֆայից օմեգա: Հնարավոր է, Հունաստանը որոշ հարցերից, կոնկրետ կանխատեսումներից նյարդայնանա, սակայն կարող ենք նստել եւ քննարկել», - ասել է Էրդողանը: Նա ընգծել է, որ քննարկումը վերաբերելու է ոչ թե Հունաստանին, այլ ողջ տարածաշրջանին: Լոզանի պայմանագրով որոշվել են Թուրքիայի սահմանները Հունաստանի, Իրաքի եւ Սիրիայի հետ:



Հունաստանի կառավարության պաշտոնական ներկայացուցիչ Դիմիտրիս Ցանակոպուլոսը հայտարարել է, որ Էրդողանի հարցազրույցը «լուրջ մտահոգություններ ու հարցեր» է առաջացնում: Այցը, սակայն, չի չեղարկվել, եւ Հունաստանը հավանաբար ցանկանում է լսել Էրդողանին:



Էրդողանն ըստ երեւույթին Հունաստանին ու մյուսներին առաջարկում է վերանայել Լոզանի պայմանագիրը՝ հնարավոր է անգամ Աթենքին լրացուցիչ «արտոնություններ» առաջարկելով: Էրդողանը վախենում է եւ բազմիցս նշել է, որ Լոզանի պայմանագիրը վերանայվելու է առանց Թուրքիայի՝ օրինակ հօգուտ Սեւրի պայմանագրի կամ Վիլսոնի արբիտրաժի, որով Թուրքիայի տարածքն անհամեմատ փոքր է ներկայիս տարածքից: Բացի այդ, Թուրքիայի վերահսկողությունից դուրս Լոզանի պայմանագրի չեղարկումը կարող է ինքնըստինքյան հանգեցնել Քրդստանի ստեղծմանը. Իրաքյան Քրդստանում արդեն անց է կացվել հանրաքվե:



Թուրքիան ԱՄՆ-ին բացահայտ մեղադրում է տարածաշրջանում սահմանները վերանայելու մտադրության մեջ: ԱՄՆ-ն ու նախագահ Թրամփը նման մտադրություն ունե՞ն: Ըստ երեւույթին, ունեն: Թրամփը երեկ Երուսաղեմը ճանաչել է Իսրայելի մայրաքաղաք: Ավելի վաղ ԱՄՆ-ն հայտարարում էր, որ մտադիր է հասնել իսրայելա-պաղեստինյան հակամարտության կարգավորմանը:



Էրդողանն ավելի վաղ հայտարարել էր, որ Թուրքիան Երուսաղեմն Իսրայելի մայրաքաղաք ճանաչելու դեպքում պատրաստ է խզել դիվանագիտական հարաբերություններն Իսրայելի հետ: Նա պատրաստակամություն է հայտնել հարցը քննարկել Ռուսաստանի նախագահ Վլադիմիր Պուտինի հետ: Լոզանի պայմանագրի հնարավոր վերանայումից առաջ Էրդողանը կփչացնի՞ Իսրայելի հետ հարաբերությունները: Առավել եւս, որ Իսրայելն ինքնին Լոզանի պայմանագրի «խախտում է»:



Հունաստանը կհամաձայնվի՞ վերանայել Լոզանի պայմանգիրը եւ թույլ չտալ ԱՄՆ-ին Մերձավոր Արեւելքում իրագործել «Թրամփի արբիտրաժը»: Մոսկվան համաձա՞յն է Թուրքիայի հետ նոր անջատ «Կարսի» պայմանագիր ստորագրել, որով կորոշվեն Թուրքիայի եւ Հայաստանի սահմանները: Ինչպե՞ս է Հայաստանը վերաբերվում այդպիսի պայմանագրերին:



Երեւանն ուշադիր հետեւում է Երուսաղեմում իրավիճակի զարգացումներին, հայտարարել է Հայաստանի արտաքին գործերի նախարար Էդվարդ Նալբանդյանը: «Երուսաղեմի կարգավիճակի հարցը միջազգային օրակարգի կարևորագույն խնդիրներից է և կարող է լուծում ստանալ բանակցությունների միջոցով՝ իսրայելա-պաղեստինյան հակամարտության կողմերի համար ընդունելի կարգավորման համատեքստում։ Դա կարող է ճանապարհ հարթել տևական անվտանգության և խաղաղության հաստատման համար», - ասել է Նալբանդյանը՝ հիշեցնելով, որ Երուսաղեմում առկա է բազմադարյա հայկական ներկայություն, հարուստ հայկական պատմա-մշակութային ժառանգություն։



Հայաստանը դեռ վերաբերմունք չի հայտնել Լոզանի եւ Կարսի պայմանագրերին: Անխուսափելիորեն մոտենում է պահը, երբ պաշտոնական Երեւանը ստիպված է լինելու արտահայտել իր դիրքորոշումը:

[Vrej1915]

Iran sanctions case witness Reza Zarrab says cellmate made death threats

• 8 December 2017
• BBC
• http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42279244

Image copyrightAFP Image captionReza Zarrab is testifying in a high-profile US Iran sanctions trial
A Turkish-Iranian gold trader testifying in a US trial of a Turkish banker says he has had death threats from another inmate for co-operating.

Reza Zarrab is a witness in the trial of Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who is accused of violating US sanctions against Iran.

Mr Zarrab told the court on Thursday that he was transferred from a Brooklyn prison to FBI custody, for protection.

In a separate development, Mr Zarrab, 34, was accused of sexual assaulting his 62-year-old cellmate last year.

Robert Anello, attorney for Mr Zarrab, said the assault allegations were "outrageous and false from a source that is not remotely credible".

On his last day of testimony at the trial, the trader said another inmate revealed to him that he had "received instructions to kill because I was co-operating".

Mr Zarrab did not identify the person or say when the threat was made. His account has not been confirmed by the US Bureau of Prisons.

He pleaded guilty in October to working with Mr Atilla in an attempt to help Iran evade US economic sanctions. Turkish denials

Earlier in his testimony, he told the court that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had approved his and the defendant's sanctions-breaking deals.

He implicated Mr Erdogan in an international money laundering scheme that he and the banker ran between 2010 and 2015, which allegedly allowed Iran access to global markets despite US sanctions.

He said that he was told in 2012 by the then economy minister that Mr Erdogan, who was prime minister at the time, had instructed Turkish banks to participate in the multi-million dollar scheme.

Mr Erdogan has denied that Turkey breached US sanctions, but the case has strained relations between Ankara and Washington. Turkish prosecutors have ordered the seizure of Mr Zarrab's assets.

Mr Zarrab was arrested by US officials in 2016, accused of engaging in hundreds of millions of dollars worth of transactions on behalf of the Iranian government, money laundering and bank fraud.

He later agreed to co-operate with the prosecutors in a case against Mr Atilla.

The sexual assault allegation against Mr Zarrab comes some months after the alleged incident. Faouzi Jaber, a former cellmate, alleges Mr Zarrab assaulted him some time between November 2016 and March 2017.

Asked why the allegation came so long after the alleged incident, Mr Jaber's attorney Alexei Schacht said he was only recently hired to be his lawyer and had "filed it as soon as possible".

The Federal Bureau of Prisons found the allegations to be "unsubstantiated", AFP reported.

[Vrej1915]

Netanyahu: Palestinians must face reality over Jerusalem

• BBC

Israel's prime minister has said Palestinians must "get to grips with" the reality that Jerusalem is Israel's capital in order to move towards peace.

Benjamin Netanyahu said Jerusalem had been the capital of Israel for 3,000 years and had "never been the capital of any other people".

He spoke amid ongoing protests in the Muslim and Arab world at a US decision recognising Jerusalem as the capital.

Violence flared near the US embassy in Lebanon and elsewhere on Sunday.

In Jerusalem itself, a Palestinian was arrested after stabbing and seriously wounding an Israeli security guard at the central bus station. Netanyahu: Paris is the capital of France, Jerusalem is the capital of Israel

Speaking in Paris after talks with French President Emmanuel Macron, Mr Netanyahu said efforts to deny the "millennial connection of the Jewish people to Jerusalem" were "absurd".

"You can read it in a very fine book - it's called the Bible," he said. "You can read it after the Bible. You can hear it in the history of Jewish communities throughout our diaspora... Where else is the capital of Israel, but in Jerusalem?

"The sooner the Palestinians come to grips with this reality, the sooner we will move towards peace."

Meanwhile a spokesman for the US Vice-President, Mike Pence, strongly criticised the Palestinian Authority, saying it was "unfortunate" that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was declining to meet Mr Pence on his forthcoming trip to the region.

In Egypt, the country's top Muslim and Christian clerics have also cancelled scheduled talks with Mr Pence in protest at the US move. Raft of protests

There has been widespread condemnation of President Donald Trump's decision - announced on Wednesday - to reverse decades of US neutrality on the status of Jerusalem which cuts to the heart of the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

The city is home to key religious sites sacred to Judaism, Islam and Christianity, especially in East Jerusalem.

Israel has always regarded Jerusalem as its capital, while the Palestinians claim East Jerusalem - occupied by Israel in the 1967 war - as the capital of a future Palestinian state.

Sunday has seen a further raft of protests at the US move:

• In Beirut, riot police used teargas and water cannon to stop hundreds of protesters from reaching the US embassy
• Further protests took place in Cairo and Rabat, the Moroccan capital
• In the Palestinian territories themselves protests continued while Israel said it had blown up a tunnel from Gaza, which it says was being dug to enable militant attacks
• Thousands of people demonstrated outside the US embassy in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, some waving banners reading "Palestine is in our hearts"
• A burning object was thrown at a synagogue in the Swedish city of Gothenburg late on Saturday in what police said was a failed arson attempt

Vicious row between two leaders

In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told a large rally in Istanbul he would not abandon Jerusalem to a state that "kills children".

Mr Netanyahu said the Turkish leader had "attacked Israel".

"I'm not used to receiving lectures about morality from a leader who bombs Kurdish villages in his native Turkey, who jails journalists, helps Iran go around international sanctions and who helps terrorists, including in Gaza, kill innocent people," he added.

Mr Erdoğan has described Jerusalem as a "red line" issue for Muslims and warned Turkey could end up severing diplomatic ties with Israel over the issue.

Turkey and Israel only restored diplomatic relations last year, six years after Turkey cut ties in protest at the killing of nine pro-Palestinian Turkish activists in clashes with Israeli commandos on board a ship trying to break Israel's naval blockade of Gaza.

[Azad]

Proxy Baiting all over the Middle East. Each baiting their game for war. Iran is playing their card properly staying out of it.

"Russia's Putin visits Syria airbase and orders start of pullout"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42307365

[Azad]

Amazing how this guy keeps insulting the US and gets away with it. Now they are placing bounty on American gov. officials.

"Turkey Places Bounty on Two Former U.S. Government Officials"

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/turkey-places-bounty-two-former-u-s-government-officials/

[Vrej1915]

Turkey to conduct joint operation with Russia against Kurdish forces

By News Desk
-
12/12/2017

Ankara will coordinate its operation in northern Syria’s Afrin region with Russia in advance if it decides to conduct it, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told NTV television channel on Tuesday.

“Threats for Turkey are coming from Afrin. We may enter this region without a warning,” Cavusoglu said.

“If we carry out the operation there, we will agree on all its aspects with our allies, including Russia,” he added

According to Cavusoglu, if the threats for Turkey are posed from the Syrian Army, Ankara’s goal will be to fight against Bashar Al-Assad’s government.

“Now they are not posing any threats to us,” he said, adding that the major threat comes from the Kurds of the Democratic Union Party and the People’s Protection Units.

On November 28, Turkey’s National Security Council said setting up observation posts in Afrin following the example of the de-escalation zone in Idlib would help to achieve peace and stability in northern Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier said Afrin is a crucial region for Ankara as it poses threat to Turkey’s national security. Erdogan’s spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, stressed that Turkey was ready to carry out an operation against the Kurds from the People’s Protection Units in Afrin.

Ankara believes that both the People’s Protection Units and the Democratic Union Party are the Syrian branches of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is fiercely fighting against Turkey’s authorities and is labeled as a terrorist organization.

More:

http://tass.com/world/980445

[Azad]

The Jerusalem Post:
"TURKEY'S ERDOGAN EXPECTED TO SPIT FIRE AT OIC MEETING ON JERUSALEM

Some 22 heads of state or government are expected to attend, including those from Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sudan, Somalia and Azerbaijan, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah II. In addition, some 25 foreign ministers, including from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Kazakhstan, are expected to attend. Saudi Arabia will be represented by its Islamic affairs minister.

In addition to Egypt and Jordan with which Israel has peace agreements, it also has strong ties with a few countries in the OIC, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan."

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Turkeys-Erdogan-expected-to-spit-fire-at-OIC-meeting-on-Jerusalem-517867

[Vrej1915]

Անակնկալ փոփոխություն «Թուրքական հոսք» նախագծում. գազատարը Եվրոպա դուրս կգա ոչ թե Հունաստանով, այլ Բուլղարիայով. լրատվամիջոցներ

14.12.17



«Թուրքական հոսք» գազամուղի կառուցման նախագծում անակնկալ փոփոխություններ են տեղի ունեցել, գրում է թուրքական Habertürk կայքը:

Ի սկզբանե նախատեսվում էր, որ գազամուղը թուրքական Թրակիայի տարածքից դուրս գալով Հունաստանի տարածքով կհասնի Եվրոպա: Սակայն այժմ հայտնի է դարձել, որ, փոխելով իր ուղղությունը, «Թուրքական հոսք»-ը Թուրքիայի տարածքից կմտնի ոչ թե Հունաստան, այլ Բուլղարիա: Նման փոփոխության պատճառների մասին լրատվամիջոցներն առայժմ լռում են:

Նախատեսվում է, որ Բուլղարիայից գազամուղը դուրս կգա դեպի Ռումինիա, Հունգարիա և կհասնի մինչև Ավստրիա:

Հղում անելով իր աղբյուրներին՝ թուրքական կայքը նշում է, որ թեմայի շուրջ արդեն բանակցություններ են սկսվել բուլղարական կողմի հետ:

Հիշեցնենք, որ Ռուսաստանը և Թուրքիան 2016 թվականի հոկտեմբերի 10-ին ստորագրել են «Թուրքական հոսք» նախագծի վերաբերյալ միջկառավարական համաձայնագիր: Նախագիծը նախատեսում է գազատարի երկու ճյուղ կառուցել Սև ծովի հատակով՝ շրջանցելով Ուկրաինան: Առաջին ճյուղը նախատեսված է թուրքական շուկա գազ հասցնելու համար, իսկ երկրորդը՝ Եվրոպա:

[Vrej1915]

Caspian Pact Paves Way for Turkmen Gas Exports to Europe – Eventually

December 13, 2017
, by David O'Byrne
An Azerbaijani drilling island on the Caspian Sea. After nearly 30 years of negotiating the Caspian Sea's borders, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan have agreed to delineate their maritime borders — creating the opportunity for Turkmenistan to export its natural gas reserves to Europe.

(Photo by Dan Nevill/CC BY-ND 2.0)
After close to 30 years of haggling over the legal status of the Caspian Sea, the five littoral states appear to have finally settled their differences and agreed on delineating their maritime borders. If finalized, the deal could pave the way for the export of Turkmenistan’s vast natural gas reserves to Europe.

Details of the agreement have not been released and some elements may only be finalized when the final text is signed next year by the heads of the five states: Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan.

“We have found solutions to all the remaining open, key issues related to the preparation of the draft Convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after a meeting with his Caspian counterparts in Moscow on December 5. “The text of the document is, in fact, ready.”

A compromise by Turkmenistan over how its maritime border with Azerbaijan is determined appears to be the breakthrough that made finalization of the pact possible.

Under the compromise, Ashgabat reportedly would drop its claim to part of Azerbaijan's Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil field, and would also likely lead to talks over other disputed assets like Kapaz/Sardar, an oil and gas field located midway between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and claimed by both. “In the coming months the two countries will also start discussing joint oil and gas projects and perhaps some form of production sharing agreement regarding the Kapaz/Sardar field,” said Efgan Nifti, director of the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center.

The agreement also appears to remove the ability of Russia or Iran to block the development of a pipeline to transit Turkmen gas across the Caspian to Azerbaijan and possibly on to Europe.

Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Khalaf Khalafov said the deal that has been reached stipulates that pipeline projects only need to be approved by the countries whose waters the pipeline would traverse.

“At least on the legal level, no one can now object if Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan decide to build a pipeline,” Nifti said.

It's not clear what might have led Russia, which has for years strenuously opposed the construction of a pipeline across the Caspian, to make this concession. Russian officials have not publicly addressed the issue. Alexander Knyazev, a pro-Kremlin analyst, told the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Russia could resort to old-fashioned saber-rattling techniques to disrupt the construction of any pipeline that Moscow opposed.

“The issue [of a pipeline] isn't eliminated, but if the project is realized, conflict could take place, most likely, in less civilized forms,” Knyazev said. “And in that case, the Russian Caspian Flotilla, which de facto dominates the sea, does not require the agreement of other countries.”

Proposals for a pipeline to carry Turkmen gas to Europe are nothing new. Such plans first surfaced in the late 1990s, when the European Union starting seeking to open a "Southern Gas Corridor" (SGC) as a means of lessening European dependence on Russian gas.

Backed by a consortium of Bechtel, Shell and GE plans for a "Trans Caspian Pipeline" (TCP) progressed as far as Turkey signing a deal in 1999 for state gas importer Botas to take 16 billion cubic meters per year of Turkmen gas. But those plans were shelved after the discovery of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field led Baku to develop its own reserves instead.

Interest in Turkmen gas surfaced again in 2009, during negotiations over the Nabucco pipeline project, which was backed by the EU under its SGC ambitions. Ultimately, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan never came to an agreement.

Eventually Nabucco, too, was shelved and Baku opted to develop its own pipeline routes: the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) across Turkey, and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) through Greece and across the Adriatic to Italy.

Under current arrangements, TANAP will carry 16 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field, of which 6 billion cubic meters will go to Turkey and the remaining 10 billion to Italy via TAP. That leaves some spare capacity in the pipelines: 15 bcm/year for TANAP and 10 bcm/yr for TAP. Both pipelines could, under their current legal frameworks, accept Turkmen gas.

Any moves to develop a pipeline to feed Turkmen gas into TANAP and on to Europe would be sure to receive the full support of the EU.

However much has changed since the various trans Caspian proposals were first mooted.

"Declining gas demand across Europe, new interconnector construction in the Balkans and rising liquid natural gas capacity have reduced prices and increased competition. The landscape is very different from that when TCP was first envisaged,” said William Powell, editor in chief of Natural Gas World.

In short, Turkmen gas would face strong competition for customers in what is currently a declining market dominated by Russia's Gazprom.

In addition, because TAP is being developed under EU rules that require the pipeline to be open to any suppliers, Gazprom could fill any extra capacity, thus leaving Turkmen gas with no route to European markets.
Even if European gas markets eventually recover, Turkmen gas would still be more likely to be sold, in fact, in Azerbaijan. "Azerbaijan has committed so much gas for exports that it can't keep pace with domestic demand,” said John Roberts, an independent consultant specializing in Caspian energy issues.

“And with the next big investment in Azeri upstream not likely for another eight to 10 years, the only source available is Turkmen,” Roberts said.

[Vrej1915]

Azerbaijan Threatened With Expulsion from Council of Europe

December 12, 2017 , by Bradley Jardine



Ilgar Mammadov, an Azerbaijani opposition figure and political prisoners, in 2012. The Council of Europe has launched unprecedented legal proceedings against Baku over Mammadov's case. (photo: CoE)

The Council of Europe has launched unprecedented legal action against Azerbaijan over an imprisoned opposition politician, raising the possibility of the country being kicked out of the 47-nation council.

On December 5, the CoE Committee of Ministers announced that it was opening infringement proceedings “due to the authorities’ continuing refusal to ensure the unconditional release of opposition politician Ilgar Mammadov following a judgment from the European Court of Human Rights.”

In May 2014, the ECHR concluded that Mammadov, a leader of the opposition group REAL, had been falsely imprisoned. The court found that Mammadov’s arrest and pre-trial detention were initiated to silence him for criticizing the government.

Since then, the CoE has adopted repeated resolutions stressing the flaws in the criminal proceedings and calling for Mammadov’s immediate and unconditional release. However, in the three years since the judgment was made, Mammadov has remained in prison.

“Over three years since the court’s judgment became final, the applicant remains in detention on the basis of the flawed criminal proceedings,” the CoE said in a statement. It noted that this is the council's first-ever use of the infringement proceeding, and that Azerbaijan's refusal to release Mammadov after the ruling is unprecedented.

Azerbaijan was quick to respond.

Novruz Mammadov (no relation to Ilgar), presidential assistant on foreign affairs, said the CoE’s decision is an example of “European Islamophobia.” And he suggested that Azerbaijan may leave the CoE rather than being kicked out.

“Azerbaijan can take every step within its own interests whenever it needs that,” Novruz Mammadov said. “No one in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe or in Europe wants Azerbaijan to leave the Council of Europe. The issue cannot be put in the form of Azerbaijan’s removal from the organization.”

He also argued that the body was “sacrific[ing] justice for smaller geopolitical interests,” which he implied were connected to Armenia.

Ilgar Mammadov, from prison, released a statement through his lawyer saying that he would withdraw his case from the EHCR if he were released unconditionally.