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How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

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  • How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

    1/ Both Countries are part of a larger ethnic group/states:
    Syria is Part of group of 22 Arab States.
    Azerbaijan is part of 6 Turkic States.

    2/ Both declare "Pan" ideology, aspire the role of leader, if not at least vice leader:
    Syria is a champion of Pan-Arabic mouvement, as aspires to catch traditional locomotive Egypt.
    Azerbaijan is a champion of Panturkism, and since the days of Musavat, aspires to be turker than the turks...

    3/ Both countries are governed by ethnic minorities, who do their best to hide their specific ethnicity by championing more than the majority the national 'cause', while in fact, doing their best to hold on power, forgetting about the loudly stated ambitions:
    - Syria is governed by the Alawite sect, a branch of Shiite rite of Islam. (In the ME, where ethnicities are melt potted, religion is the 'ethnicity'...)
    - Azerbaijan is governed by a family of Kurdish extraction. (Kurdish being a negative stereotype in turkic standards, they do use 'Nakhitchevani' as denomination, but one must understand Kurdish in that word, in Azerbaijani context, since most muslims of that old armenian province were bringed in by Shah Abbas of Iran efter expelling Armenians in XVIII-XIX cent, and the Kurdish origin of the very Aliyev family is not a secret).

    4/ Both countries have a dictatorial system, based on Cult of personality of the 'wise father', replaced by the "ill-shiny", mediocre and authority lacking son at his death.
    -Bashar replaced Hafez the wise, in place of a well prepared and authoritarian brother, eliminated by 'fake' car accident, by a neighbor not so well intentioned. Thus he is obliged to rely heavily on his entourage, an was unable to reform, terrorized by the spectre of change..
    - Ilham was a notorious boy-lover, gambler, so ill famed, that virtually no family accepted to give a girl, even if he was the son of the so famous Heidar. The old pal had to compromise, and accept the alliance of the Pashayev family of Baku (the biggest mafia type Corleone) since soviet old days. As the bed habits of Ilham are very well known, since his young years, he has no moral authority on his entourage, in a very 'macho' azari society, and as a matter of fact, is obliged to deal between the interests of his kurdish (aka-nakhitchevanski) clan, and the hegemonic mafia of the Baku Pashayev's.... The fact that his wife is the real dictator, sleeps with any gigolo, or even a strong Belarussian like Lukashenka, is only shaking the authority of Ilham, and is publicized intentionally by the lady.

    5/ Both regimes, being 'intruders', are forced to rely on other fellow minorities, to crush the majority:
    - Bashar relies on the Kurds, Maronites, other christian minorities, the Cherkez and the Druzes.
    - Ilham relies essentially on the 'Eraz' that is mainly Sunni turks of Armenia, hiding behind their sunni rite behind the 'Eraz' symbol in a mainly shia country, Lezkins, Talysh, etc....

    6/ The ethnic minorities have a good day and 'carte Blanche', in sharing the common wealth , of course after the 'dominant minority', by helping plunder the national wealth, with one condition: let their specific minority rights well smashed. This being used as proof of 'loyalty' of the leader, before the majority.
    - In Syria, Alawites have all the golden shares in every profitable sector, and the remaining minorities are mainly the middle class, but their minority groups have no right to exist as such.... Kurds are smashed as a group from time to time, Christians do not exist, Druzes....
    - In Azerbaijan, while Lezkinshs and Talys are all well higher class than Turks, their very minority rights are smashed...

    7/ Both countries have smaller arch-rivals, declared as national enemy, and both have lost the wars against that same 'common' enemy. All the official speeches are directed towards that 'super' enemy, while in fact, the regimes have happy time keeping the status quos...
    - Israel for Syria.
    - Armenia for Azerbaijan.

    8/ Both countries spent huge chunks of national wealth in arms, but surprisingly end always outgunned by the enemy.

    9/ Both armies are organised as mainly a police force, to keep control on any revolt of the majority.... (see the 'famous' marauder, etc... wheeled armor, useless against Artsakh, but very useful in police operations.)

    10/ Both are middle class oil/gas producers, and aspire to be energetic hubs.
    - Syria wants to export Irak's and Saudia's oil via Banias, Tartus...
    - Azerbaijan aspires the same regarding Kazakh and Turkmen oil and gas...

    11/ Both countries have no free press what so ever.

    12/ Both regimes literally plunder the energy revenues.

    13/ Both ruling clans have monopolistic sectors in hand.....


    etc, etc.....

  • #2
    Re: How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

    14/ Both regimes are 'nationalist' and very irritated by 'islamists'....

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

      Jerusalem Post: Hidden US-Israeli Military Agenda - "Break Syria into Pieces"



      Hidden US-Israeli Military Agenda: "Break Syria into Pieces"

      by Prof. Michel Chossudovsky
      Global Research, June 16, 2012
      A timely article in the Jerusalem Post last month brings to the forefront the unspoken objective of US foreign policy, namely the breaking up of Syria as a sovereign nation state along ethnic and religious lines. The article also confirms the role of Israel in the process of political destabilization of Syria . The JP article is titled: "Veteran Kurdish politician calls on Israel to support the break-up of Syria ' (by Jonathan Spyer) (The Jerusalem Post (May 16, 2012)
      Sherkoh Abbas, President of the US based Kurdistan National Assembly of Syria (KNA) has "called on Israel to support the break-up of Syria into a series of federal structures based on the country’s various ethnicities." (Ibid)
      The objective of the US sponsored armed insurgency is --with the help of Israel -- to "Break Syria into Pieces".

      The "balkanisation of the Syrian Arab Republic " is to be carried out by fostering sectarian divisions, which will eventually lead to a "civil war" modelled on the former Yugoslavia .
      One possible "break-up scenario" pertaining to Syria, which constitutes a secular multi-ethnic society, would be the formation of separate and "independent" Sunni, Alawite-Shiite, Kurdish and Druze political entities. “We need to break Syria into pieces,” Abbas said. (Quoted in JP, op. cit., emphasis added).
      "The Syrian Kurdish dissident argued that a federal Syria , separated into four or five regions on an ethnic basis, would also serve as a natural “buffer” for Israel against both Sunni and Shi’ite Islamist forces." (Ibid.).
      Ironically, while Islamist forces are said to constitute the main threat to the xxxish State, Tel Aviv is providing covert support to the Islamist Free Syrian Army (FSA).

      Map 1

      Meeting behind Closed Doors at the US State Department
      A top level State Department meeting was held in May with members of the Syrian Kurdish opposition. In attendance were representatives of the Kurdish National Council (KNC), Robert Stephen Ford, the outgoing US ambassador to Syria (who has played a key role in channelling support to the rebels) as well as Frederic C. Hof, a former business partner of Richard Armitage, who currently serves as the administration’s "special coordinator on Syria ". (Ibid). The delegation also met with Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman.

      Frederic C. Hof, Robert Stephen Ford and Jeffrey Feltman are the State Department's key Syria policy-makers, with close links to the Syrian Free Army (SFA) and the Syrian National Council (SNC).


      Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman


      Frederic C. Hof, The Administration's "special coordinator on Syria "


      Robert S. Ford, outgoing US Ambassador to Syria

      The public statements of KNA leader Sherkoh Abbas in the wake of this meeting suggest that the political fracturing of the Syrian Arab Republic along ethnic and religious lines as well as the creation of an "independent Kurdistan " were discussed. "State Department Deputy Spokesman Mark Toner described [the meeting's] purpose as part of 'ongoing efforts... to help the Syrian [Kurdish] opposition build a more cohesive opposition to Assad.'” (Ibid).
      The KNA leader called upon Washington to support the creation of a separate Kurdish State consisting of "an autonomous region in Syria ; joining the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq – which borders the Kurdish region in Syria ; or perhaps an even larger Kurdish state" [Greater Kurdistan].

      "The Kurdish people, in all parts of Kurdistan , seek the right to form an independent Kurdish state. We can only achieve this cherished goal with the help of the western democracies, and first and foremost the U.S. ” said Sherkoh Abbas. (Syria: An Alternative, Choice, Ekurd.net, May 22, 2012)
      It is worth noting, in this regard, that the creation of a "Greater Kurdistan" has been envisaged for several years by the Pentagon as part of a broader "Plan for Redrawing the Middle East".(See map 2 below)

      This option, which appears unlikely in the near future, would go against the interests of Turkey , a staunch ally of both the US and Israel . Another scenario, which is contemplated by Ankara would consist in the annexation to Turkey of Syrian Kurdistan. (See map above).
      "Greater Kurdistan" would include portions of Iran , Syria , Iraq and Turkey as conveyed in Coronel Ralph Peters (ret) celebrated map of "The New Middle East" (see below). (For Further details see Mahdi Nazemroaya's November 2006 Global Research article).

      Colonel Peters taught at the US Military Academy.



      Plans for Redrawing the Middle East: The Project for a “New Middle East”
      - by Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya - 2006-11-18
      Towards the balkanization (division) and finlandization (pacification) of the Middle East



      Map 2. The New Middle East

      The following map was prepared by Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters. It was published in the Armed Forces Journal in June 2006,
      Peters is a retired colonel of the U.S. National War Academy. (Map Copyright Lieutenant-Colonel Ralph Peters 2006).

      Although the map does not officially reflect Pentagon doctrine, it has been used in a training program at NATO's Defense College for senior military officers.
      This map, as well as other similar maps, has most probably been used at the National War Academy as well as in military planning circles.

      Global Research is a media group of writers, journalists and activists and based in Montreal, Canada, and a registered non profit organization.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

        Interview with Seth Smith
        By Bilal Y. Saab – The Syrian conflict took a turn to the worse after Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom fighter jet on June 22. Here is what we know so far:

        * Turkey has confirmed that the jet did cross into Syrian airspace.

        * Syria has confirmed that it did shoot down the jet.

        * The pilot and electronic warfare operator have not been recovered yet.

        * The jet in question was an RF-4, a reconnaissance variant of the F-4 Phantom II.

        * Turkey invoked Article IV of the NATO charter, which calls for consultation by NATO members when one is attacked or threatened. For those interested in the NATO Secretary General’s statement, here it is.




        Numerous questions still loom over this incident, the answers to which could shed light on the potential for international intervention in Syria. For more on this story, I sat down with Seth Smith, Herbert Scoville Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Mr. Smith served six years in the U.S. Navy as a Persian-Farsi Crypto-linguist and airborne reconnaissance mission supervisor. He was considered a SME on the orders of battle of the Gulf State militaries and on the Iranian military capabilities and tactics.

        1- Why was a Turkish fighter jet flying so close to – and possibly in – Syrian territory in the first place?

        The answer to this question may lie in the type of aircraft that was shot down. According to a recent news report, the jet in question was an “R” variant of the F-4 Phantom. The “R” in the nomenclature stands for reconnaissance. Though it can be armed with bombs for targeting static ground forces/facilities and is a capable air-to-air combat fighter, the more common role for the Phantom is anti-aircraft missile suppression; an essential component of establishing air superiority and/or no-fly zones. An RF-4 would be equipped with specific electronic warfare capability for the identification of radar and missile sites in Syria that would need to be destroyed in the event of an air campaign.

        Initial thinking was that the Turkish jet was shot down by a SAM; however new reporting indicates that it was anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) fire that brought the jet down. If true, this information would refute Turkish claims that the jet was shot down in international airspace and would support Syrian claims that it was flying very low within Syrian territory, as AAAs are short-range air defense weapons. This would also indicate that the jet’s mission was focused more on testing and identifying Syrian air defense capabilities and not testing Turkish radar systems, as Turkey’s foreign minister recently stated.


        2- Why did Syria shoot it down? Could it have avoided doing so?

        Breaches of territorial airspace are not a rare occurrence for any nation. Unidentified aircraft are regularly spotted on radar systems and countries usually follow a prescribed protocol to identify those aircraft and their intensions. Attacking such aircraft is generally the last option on an air defense protocol. With this in mind, there are two possibilities as to why Syria fired on the Turkish jet:

        Syria’s air defenses are on high-alert in light of the current unrest and threat of international intervention. As such, their rules of engagement are shoot-first, ask questions or apologize later.
        A Syrian air defense operator spotted an unidentified aircraft and fired on it without authorization.

        Either case is likely; however, in times of heightened tension or conflict, air defense postures can be recalibrated to decrease the options available to site commanders short of attack. Considering the current turmoil in Syria and the rhetoric of the international community, it is likely that the Syrian air defense posture is at high-alert. This would give lower-level commanders the authorization to fire on suspect aircraft without direct orders from a higher command. Takeaway, Syria’s armed forces have itchy trigger fingers (as if their brutality against their own people wasn’t proof enough).

        So what does this incident mean in the context of potential intervention? The answer to that is still unclear. One thing is certain, the argument of international security experts that Syria is not Libya has been confirmed. No NATO aircraft were lost to enemy fire during the Libya operation. Even if it was a “lucky” shot, the incident demonstrates the capability of Syrian air defense systems. This will make an international community, already reluctant to get involved militarily in Syria, even more hesitant to do so – unanimous condemnation of Syria from NATO notwithstanding.

        3- Do you think this incident will deter Turkey from sending more jets into Syrian airspace?

        This incident will most likely dissuade Turkey from embarking on similarly risky missions, at least in the near future. Turkey has a much larger air force than Syria’s (twice as large) but in terms of modernity of technology the two countries are roughly evenly matched. The reluctance of Turkey’s NATO allies to get involved in Syria is another factor that could keep Ankara from pushing back too hard against Syrian action or risking further escalation by testing Syrian air defense capabilities in the near-term.

        4- Does this change anything in the broader discussion about potential military intervention in Syria?

        This incident has reminded us once again that Syria is not Libya. The United States was able to lead from behind in Libya because other NATO countries had sufficient capability to establish a no-fly zone with little risk to their aircrafts and pilots. And even in the Libyan case, leading from behind still necessitated the United States providing the lion’s share of ISR, targeting, and armaments capability in that campaign. Leading from behind in Syria does not look like an option. Even the often overly simplified “no-fly zone” would probably involve launching cruise missiles from Navy ships in the Mediterranean in conjunction with a large and sustained air assault.

        5- What is the bottom line of this incident? What have we really learned?

        Any international military intervention will require a sizeable force and a much more prominent role by the United States. Also, the risk of loss of life to all those involved will be much greater. Expect casualties. The stated goal in Libya was humanitarian assistance, not regime change (although one led to the other of course). How do you say “fool me once” in Russian? or in Mandarin? Barring the use of chemical weapons by Assad against the rebels, Russia and China probbaly won’t be offering any “Yes” votes regarding intervention in Syria. For the right price, however, the Russians can be convinced to cooperate and agree on covert (not overt) actions in Syria. But their laundry list of demands is ridiculous.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

          Sunday Times. Ռուս զինվորականները Սիրիայի պաշտպանության ուժերին օգնել են խփել թուրքական օդանավը
          Օդանավը կործանելու որոշումը պետք է նախազգուշացում դառնար ՆԱՏՕ-ի համար...


          Հուլիս 02, 2012 | 10:15
          Ռուս մասնագետներըւ կարեւոր դեր են խաղացել սիրիական պաշտպանության ուժերի կողմից թուրքական օդանավի ոչնչացման գործում: Այդ մասին գրում է Gazeta.ru-ն` վկայակոչելով Sunday Times-ի հրապարակումը:

          Ըստ մերձարեւելյան դիվանագիտական աղբյուրների` օդանավը կործանելու որոշումը պետք է նախազգուշացում դառնար ՆԱՏՕ-ի համար, որպեսզի Դաշինքը հեռու մնա Սիրիայի իրադարձություններից:

          «Իրավիճակն ակնհայտ ռուսական մատնահետք ունի: Սիրիան Լիբիա չէ, եւ ցանկացած փորձ թանկ կնստի հարձակվողի վրա»,- իրավիճակի ռուսական մտածողությունը մեկնաբանող դիվանագետին է մեջբերում Sunday Times-ը:

          «Մենք չենք զամանա, եթե պարզվի, որ ռուս մասնագետները կանգնած են եղել դա անող սիրիացի սպաների կողքին»,-Իսրայելի ռազմաօդային ուժերի աղբյուրին է մեջբերում Sunday Times-ը:

          Հիշեցնենք, որ ըստ Ռուսաստանի ԱԳՆ ղեկավար Սերգեյ Լավրովի հայտարարության` Ռուսաստանն ունի տվյալներ թուրքական օդանավը կործանելու վերաբերյալ: «Մենք պատրաստ ենք դրանք ներկայացնել», - նրան մեջբերում է «ՌԻԱ Նովոստին»:

          Թուրքիայի հետախուզական RF-4E օդանավն անհետացել էր տեղորոշիչ կայանների էկրաններից հունիսի 22-ին: Դամասկոսը հայտարարել էր, որ ոչնչացրել է այն իր տարածքային ջրերում, քանի որ օդանավը ներխուժել էր Սիրիայի օդային տարածք:

          Թուրքիան պնդում է, որ RF-4E-ն իբր խփվել է միջազգային օդային տարածքում:

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

            Georgia, Azerbaijan Indirectly Aiding Syria: Report
            March 24, 2013 - 2:43pm, by Joshua Kucera The Bug Pit Azerbaijan Georgia Russia Syria
            The roles played by regional powers Russia and Turkey in Syria's civil war are well documented, the former on the side of the government of Bashar al-Assad, and the latter on the side of the opposition. But according to a new report by a human rights group, Georgia and Azerbaijan also play bit parts in helping the Syrian government.

            The report by the Human Rights First, Enablers of the Syrian Conflict (pdf), attempts to shine light on the international actors fueling the bloodshed in that country. It focuses solely on aid given to the government of Syria, not to the rebels. "Although both sides of the conflict are responsible for atrocities, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is responsible for the vast majority," the report says.

            Private companies in Georgia and Lebanon have supplied Syria with diesel fuel, the report notes:

            [S]mall vessels carrying diesel from Georgia have also
            sailed into Syria.The United States provides foreign assistance to both Lebanon and Georgia. This assistance, and close bilateral relations, affords the United States an opportunity to exercise diplomatic and political action to have the Lebanese and Georgian governments investigate these reports and stop actors within those countries from
            fueling the crisis in Syria.

            For its part, Azerbaijan allows Russia to use its airspace for shipments of weapons and cash:

            Some lethal provisions to Syria by air initially involved transit through Turkey; however, after Turkey took steps to inspect suspected arms flights to Syria, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have all attempted to instead use Iraq as an arms corridor, with Russian transfers also traveling through Azerbaijan and Iran....

            Russia has attempted to send military equipment and other items to Syria through a more indirect aviation route, traveling from Moscow through Azerbaijan, Iran, and Iraq to Damascus. Flight documents show that Russia attempted to arrange four separate flights in November and December 2012, each sending a repaired Mi-25 attack helicopter to Syria. ...

            Russia has used the same aviation route across Azerbaijan, Iran, and Iraq to send newly minted bank notes to the regime ...According to flight records obtained by ProPublica, Russia is also transporting bank notes into Syria through flights from Moscow to Damascus, traveling indirectly through Azerbaijan, Iran, and Iraq. Flight manifests show eight separate flights between the two cities each transported 30 tons of bank notes between July and September 2012.

            It's interesting that Azerbaijan here is allowing itself to be used by Russia for a purpose that its big brother, Turkey, has forbidden. One wonders if this has been brought up by the Turkish government in its talks with Azerbaijan. But this is certainly a case where Azerbaijan doesn't have the wherewithal to stand up to Russia, even if they wanted to.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: How to avoid SYRIA's today to AZERBAIJAN: similarities/differences?

              24 March 2013
              BBC
              Kerry presses Iraq on Iran weapons flights to Syria


              US Secretary of State John Kerry has told Iraq's PM that allowing Iranian planes to use Iraqi air space to carry weapons to Syria was "problematic".

              Mr Kerry, on an unannounced trip to Iraq, held talks with Prime Minister Nouri Maliki in a bid to boost co-operation over the Syria conflict.

              He said Iranian arms were sustaining Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

              The US has accused Iraq of turning a blind eye to the flights, which Iran claims transport only humanitarian aid.

              It is 10 years since the US-led invasion of Iraq that toppled former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

              The trip is Mr Kerry's first to Iraq since taking office earlier this year, and the first by an American secretary of state since 2009.

              "I made very clear to the prime minister that the overflights from Iran are in fact helping to sustain President Assad and his regime," Mr Kerry told reporters.

              "I made it very clear that for those of us who are engaged in an effort to see President Assad step down... anything that supports President Assad is problematic."

              An unnamed US official earlier told the AP news agency that Iranian planes were flying over Iraq into Syria almost every day.

              The official said Iraq had promised to inspect the flights, but only two planes had been checked since last year.

              The state department said Mr Kerry would also discuss democratic reforms in Iraq.

              He was expected to suggest that Iraq's government reconsider a recent decision to delay provincial elections in Anbar and Nineveh provinces.

              And he was also expected speak by phone to Massoud Barzani, president of the oil-rich autonomous region of Kurdistan, to stress the importance of maintaining Iraq's unity.

              Comment

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