Eurasian Customs Union

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

THE BIRTH OF EURASIASKEPTICISM

Russia in Global Affairs, Russia
March 21 2014

21 march 2014
Evgeny Vinokurov

Are There Reasons for Panic?

Evgeny Vinokurov, Ph.D (Economics), is Director of the Center for
Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank.

Resume: Skepticism is normal in any project development and it will
naturally continue to accompany the Eurasian integration project.

Regular monitoring of public opinion will help uncover sore points. To
curb skepticism, systemic preventive measures are needed, such as
an earnest and well-balanced dialogue with the public and business
community.

Skepticism is increasing in the post-Soviet space about the Eurasian
Union (EAU). Similar to doubts surrounding the European Union, the
public, government officials, and business and expert communities are
growing less enthusiastic about the success of the Eurasian project.

As euphoria over the launch of the Customs Union and the Common
Economic Space dies down, attitudes towards the Eurasian project
are becoming progressively sober and public support for the emerging
Eurasian Economic Union is shrinking.

People have criticized attempts to reintegrate post-Soviet space ever
since the break-up of the Soviet Union some twenty-three years ago.

Critics have expressed doubts over the objectives and methods of the
unification processes, both from inside (in the three core countries
of the integration project - Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus) and out.

However, the current skepticism is markedly different: it is swelling
as an organic part of the project, which now encompasses the Customs
Union, the Single Economic Space, and the Eurasian Economic Union
(EAU), and both its supporters and opponents recognize it as a fait
accompli.

Skepticism towards the Customs Union is still in the nascent
state. A sociological survey (the Eurasian Development Bank's (EDB)
Integration Barometer) found that an average of 68% of people living
in EAU member-states supported that organization in 2013 (down two
points from 2012). Compared to the 50% support for the European Union
registered by a Eurobarometer pan-European survey, this means that
Eurasian integration still has some credibility and durability. Yet
the critical perception of the Customs Union, the Single Economic
Space, and the EAU (the latter is still in the process of formation)
is likely to increase in the next several years. And we all have to
reconcile ourselves to that fact.

THE EVOLVEMENT OF EURASIASKEPTICISM

This article uses data provided by the Integration Barometer project,
which is based on research conducted by the Eurasian Development Bank
on a regular basis. The surveys pose a series of diverse questions,
ranging from the commodities people prefer in post-Soviet countries to
investment partners in educational/socio-cultural institutions. Thus,
the surveys mirror annual shifts in the moods of people living in the
CIS. These indicators help to identify which spheres of integration
are doing well and which are showing signs for concern.

One of the central points of study is public opinion about the
feasibility of accession to the Customs Union and the Single Economic
Space, and the overall perception of those associations. In the polls,
the wording of questions differs depending on whether a country is
a member of a particular association or not. Consequently, people
from member-states were asked about their attitudes towards the
Customs Union and the Single Economic Space, while respondents from
non-affiliated countries were asked about the possibility of accession
to those organizations.

The public's approval of the Customs Union and the Single Economic
Space is relatively high (see Diagram 1): in 2013, support in
Kazakhstan stood at 73% (down 7% from 80% in 2012). The drop in support
was due to an increase in the number of local residents who expressed
indifference to Kazakhstan's participation in both associations (15%
in 2013 compared to 10% in 2012). Six percent responded negatively
about joining either organization.

In 2013, support in Russia for participation in both associations
dipped to 67% from 72% in the previous year. In addition, Russia
showed the biggest growth of indifferent attitudes, which rose to 24%
from 17% in 2012. The percentage of Russians treating these processes
negatively remained at 5%.

In Belarus, support increased for membership in the Customs Union
(to 65% from 60%) and grew closer to the level of support in
Russia. This change occurred amid an economic rebound and financial
aid from Russia. The percentage of Belarusians indifferent to the
Customs Union dropped to 23% from 28%, but, like in Russia, support
still remains relatively high. The percentage of those who responded
negatively towards integration fell to 3% from 6%

Diagram 1. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia formed a Customs Union
and abolished customs duties between the three countries. The three
countries also formed a Single Economic Space, which, in essence,
is a common market. What is your attitude towards that decision?

Source: Integration Barometer

Other questions revealed a more critical approach, especially
in the categories of commodity preferences, science, technology,
and education.

Compared to 2012, goods produced in CIS countries were in less demand
among Russians (12%) and Belarusians (8%) in 2013. "Other countries,"
i.e., countries outside of the Eurasian Union and the CIS, were named
as the most preferable sources of foreign investment. Investment
by post-Soviet neighbors (which actually means Russia) was not a
priority. One possible explanation for this is that Russian investment
is not associated in the public mind with technological progress or
industrial modernization (although the actual situation is much more
nuanced. See the data on Russia's diversified direct investment in
the CIS provided by the EDB's another annual report on the Monitoring
of Mutual Investments).

A question about priority partners in science and technology has
revealed a similar picture. Respondents from all CIS countries
mentioned Japan, the U.S., and Germany as priority partners. One of
the reasons may be the perception of Russia as a country that has
lost many of its leading positions in science and technology over
the past two decades.

Negative long-term trends are characteristic of educational exchanges.

Although many recognized educational centers in Moscow, St.

Petersburg, Kiev, Minsk, Almaty, Yekaterinburg, and Omsk could compete
successfully with Western universities in the 1990s in the cost to
quality grounds, current polls suggest that those institutions have
lost that advantage. Also, grassroots chauvinism, which is another
factor unrelated to the quality of education, still impacts Russia. Of
course, one should reckon with persistent trends in education that
relate to the two post-Soviet decades, not to the short history of
the Customs Union.

Diagram 2. To which of the countries below would you like to go to
study or for other educational purposes (or to send your children
for study)?

Source: Integration Barometer.

>From this point on, in diagrams depicting the categories "Former
Soviet republics," "EU countries," and "Other countries," the
indicators account for the percentage of respondents who named at
least one country in an appropriate category. For instance, in this
diagram, 52% of Tajiks mentioned at least one former Soviet republic;
18% at least one EU country; and 51% at least one "other" country
(see data for Tajikistan in 2013).

Preferences indicating the most attractive countries for cooperation
in science and technology are especially important because they
directly relate to long-term strategic competitiveness. Therefore,
it should be alarming that the CIS population shows little interest
in neighboring states in these areas.

Equally worrying in terms of the Eurasian integration project is
the relatively high level of "autonomous approach" to development
with some post-Soviet countries, which is manifest in the lack of
respondents' interest in any country on the list (see Diagram 3). The
term "autonomous approach" implies that people concentrate on their
home countries' internal problems and resources. They show a relative
lack of interest in interacting with the world in a wide range of
areas, including trade, investment, and culture. The general tendency
is: the wealthier a country, the more inclined its citizens are to
develop on their own. Kazakhstan, which is open to the outside world,
is an exception to that rule.

Diagram 3. The level of public interest in autonomous development in
countries taking part in the project (the mean value of the total
percentages of 'No such countries' and 'Undecided' in answers to
questions asked in each country)

Source: Integration Barometer

Overall, people living in Customs Union countries and their neighbors
are fairly optimistic. For instance, three-thirds or more respondents
in the three core nations believe that the integration project will
either develop further or maintain current achievements, but the
project will definitely not collapse.

Diagram 4. Do you think there will be a rapprochement or estrangement
among CIS countries in the next five years?

THE EXPERIENCE OF EUROSKEPTICISM

>From the beginning skepticism has accompanied the discussions of
post-Soviet integration. While Eurasiaskepticism is no more than a
year old, concerns about the EU have been around for a long time.

Thus, it makes sense to compare the two phenomena on the basis of
sociological data.

Eurobarometer polling conducted in EU countries reveals a lower
percentage of those who approve of integration. People living in
incumbent EU member-states gave a relatively positive assessment of the
gains in their respective countries from involvement in the European
common market, yet the share of positive answers does not exceed 50%
(see Diagram 5). It is noteworthy that the level of approval was much
higher in the first half of the 2000s, while support dropped later
during a financial crisis in the eurozone. The number of negative
assessments now approaches the amount of positive assessments in
Britain, Hungary, Italy, Austria, Greece, and Cyprus, and sometimes
the results are even higher. Thus, the public no longer assesses all
of the blame to national governments for short-sighted fiscal policies
and bloated non-production assets, but blames Brussels instead.

Overall, the perception of economic integration within the post-Soviet
space is more positive than within the EU. However, we should bear
in mind that since the questions of the two "barometers" differ, the
responses can neither be directly compared nor provide an accurate
analysis. Importantly, Europeans were asked about what they had already
gained from the EU. Naturally, during the economic crisis Europeans
were not inclined towards favorably assessing the impact of integration
on their lives. Simultaneously, respondents from post-Soviet countries
were asked about their general attitudes towards the establishment
of the Customs Union. Since it has not had a significant influence
on their lives so far, their judgments were based on more general
perceptions ("It is a good and appropriate thing to be together and
be friends.")

Diagram 5. Overall, has your country gained or lost from membership
in the EU (the Common Market)?

Source: Eurobarometer. This question was asked in EU countries in
May 2011, and in candidate countries in November 2012.

A similar conclusion can be drawn by comparing the results of
polling in countries that are not members in associations. Macedonia
and Montenegro were the only two of the six candidate countries in
November 2012 where more than 50% of respondents spoke favorably of
participating in the European common market. In the case of Turkey,
the figure accounts for decades of unsuccessful attempts to join a
united Europe. The Serbian response was mostly negative in the wake
of the EU's support for the forces that had broken up the former
Yugoslavia. Icelanders reacted to the 'hard landing' of 2008. As for
post-Soviet space, the only negative assessments came in Azerbaijan,
where 53% of respondents indicated that they would not like to
join the Customs Union, while only 37% supported such a move. This
is a consequence of the Karabakh syndrome. In other CIS countries
the percentage of those who support economic integration was much
larger and reached three-thirds of the population in some cases (72%
in Kyrgyzstan, 75% in Tajikistan, and 77% in Uzbekistan).

http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/The-Birth-of-Eurasiaskepticism-16498

[Hakob]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Interesting Interview. The first part
Talk about real slavery. They scare countries with russian, Iranian, or other bogeymen and hurd populations into real slavery
http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/ep...ax-keiser-121/

[Federate]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Egypt mulls free trade zone with Russia's customs union


MOSCOW: Egypt has resumed talks about the creation of a free trade zone with the customs union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, Egyptian and Russian officials said on Wednesday.

Russia is increasing efforts to strengthen relations with large importers of its products as the United States and European Union threaten steeper sanctions over Moscow's intervention in the crisis in Ukraine.

In the biggest East-West confrontation since the Cold War, the U.S. and EU have imposed visa bans and asset freezes on some of President Vladimir Putin's closest political and business allies after Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimea.

"There were talks about this (creation of the free trade zone with Egypt) before 2011.. Now we have agreed to resume these negotiations and to discuss sectors of cooperation," Russian Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fydorov said.

"The final decision will be made after the (presidential) election campaign in Egypt, official documents will be appearing after it," he told reporters in Moscow after the meeting of the Russian-Egyptian commission for trade development.

Egypt has yet to announce the official date of presidential elections that army chief Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is expected to win.

Egyptian industry and investment minister Mounir Fakhry Abdel Nour said that the agreement on free trade with the customs union could contribute to expanding cooperation between two countries.

He said the officials have also discussed a number of joint projects, including supplies of Russian liquefied natural gas and other commodities.

Russian state nuclear firm Rosatom is considering taking part in the construction of a nuclear power plant in Egypt, according to officials.

They have also agreed to revive Russia's participation in modernisation of assets dating back to the Soviet era, Fyodorov said. He mentioned an aluminium plant, a hydro power plant and projects related to the light metro in Cairo and grain storage. He did not specify what form Russia's involvement could take.

Egypt is already the largest importer of Russian wheat, buying one fifth of the country's exports of this commodity so far in 2013/14. It bought 2.6 million tonnes of Russian wheat between July 1 and the end of February.

"You (Russia) have expressed your wish to expand exports, primarily of wheat... and we want to develop exports of vegetables and fruit. It would help widen our cooperation," Abdel Nour told the meeting.

Officials did not provide any other details on how Russian wheat exports could be increased.

It is unlikely that the countries will reach a major long-term wheat supply deal - a possibility the market has repeatedly speculated on, although there might be other ways of a deeper cooperation, a trader said.

" Egypt has often talked about these long term wheat deals before but no one believes anything practical will come out of it as it doesn't make sense, why would you lock yourself into a deal with certain prices and what if market prices go down after that, you are stuck paying the higher price?" the trader said.

"What is more realistic is that they discuss together whether or not the Russian government can perhaps encourage Russian firms to participate more directly in GASC (Egyptian state wheat buyer) tenders to increase the amount of Russian offers."

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Business/Middle-East/2014/Mar-26/251339-egypt-mulls-free-trade-zone-with-russias-customs-union.ashx#ixzz2x4szLHi1

[Eddo211]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Really nice post above Hakob. Densly packed, that unfortunately is a more insightful depiction of this sad reality than if one described a pleasant walk in the park that we've all took from time to time.
And yes, to the masses who can only point to the walk in the park, Haykakan is right ... Be careful what you wish for ...
They are showing you the ice cream --- but they are giving you the POISENING Hakob spoke of above.

Yes, X2 on Hakob and Haykakan last posts.

[Artashes]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Really nice post above Hakob. Densly packed, that unfortunately is a more insightful depiction of this sad reality than if one described a pleasant walk in the park that we've all took from time to time.
And yes, to the masses who can only point to the walk in the park, Haykakan is right ... Be careful what you wish for ...
They are showing you the ice cream --- but they are giving you the POISENING Hakob spoke of above.

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

"In soviet union we resented the power and privileges of Communist party and the moral servitude it forced on us. But it is also true that anything that allows a person to take monetary advantage of another was outlawed. We wanted capitalism, Freedom, Democracy. But it appears that in this society one can take not only monetary, but also moral advantage over another according to the law. As long as it is done "democratically". Basically with a class."

This is why i like the saying -Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it.

[Hakob]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Big money needs population, without them they wont survive......everyone stop buying petrol for your car for two days and don't go to work for two days. I bet you it will be like the SHTF dripping and the fan is broken.

And when you go to gas station after couple of days the gas is 15 cents higher. You loose your two days pay, energy guys make their losses plus some extra with government protection with some bullxxxx story.
Any day they wake up they can decide to spread some bs about somebody farting near any pipeline or refinery around the world and raise the price to just below the level over which population cannot take the stick any deeper in rear end, and keep it there. You know, public's ability to endure more grows with time. They know more about people than people themselfs.
When the world was bypolar, western capitalizm had to endure democracy in it's sence, a large middle class and be sensitive to public opinion in order to limit the spread of discontent and communism. Now everything is in the hands of big money(modern feudals). Who needs a prosperous, free and truly democratic population? All you have to be is a slave to consummerism. The rest will be decided and set for you. You don't have to know too much. Just what the establishment wants you to know.
For the past 3-4 months all the news was about euromaidan. You were bombarded every minute with one sided interpretation of unfolding events with non stop injection of democracy-dempcracy-democracy. But then, things started to unfold not like the propaganda machine was hoping would happen. Suddenly, lot of people were not supporting euromaidan (which was made synonimus with democracy). Actions of euromaidan people did not look very democratic. Then people were killed and it appeared that forces behind euromaidan(democracy) were behind the killings. Just a vague few words and news passed this facts, instead american reporters laying wraths over there and shedding crocodile tears that those died for democracy-democracy-democracy. No word in western media of who were behind the killings.
Then Khrimean russians who consist the majority there, did something exactly democratical. They passed a referendum decided about joining Russia.
Million BS reasons were tried of why it is not legal or democratic. Did not stick too well. Shadows of Kosovo came up larger and larger. Where it started becoming harder to prove why is this time diffrent than Kosovo, where west, one sidedly without approval of UN bombed and destroyed serbians and passed the albanian referendum. Howcome this time russians did the same without single drop of blod and according to wests textbook and it was not democratic? everywhere discussions started that were not in wests favor. Even some western commentators started to question their own logic.
Then comes something trivial, though tragic. One of many things that happens around the world. A plane is lost. And now you open the CNN world news and 24/7 its about the plane. Few minutes every cylce is said about US puting sanctions on russia and ukrain resisting. But nothing more about this world shaking hystorical event.
Instead we are airplain search F--cked (our brains) for every minute. Nothing about Syria (it is not going to the wests liking. Besides, more news brings more questions of howcome and why are US and Europe supporting those seemingly medieval head chopping terrorists?).
Now, I believe that society today in general is not capable of holding a true multifaced informative position about anything. And that is the basis of propaganda.
While your debt along with some important costs are making a zombie from you and killing your family life or whats really important for a human being, you have to worry about gey rights, marijuana legalization and lost plane and "spreading democracy to places" without knowing much what really is happening around you or in the world.
Gas prices? LOL
In soviet union we resented the power and privileges of Communist party and the moral servitude it forced on us. But it is also true that anything that allows a person to take monetary advantage of another was outlawed. We wanted capitalism, Freedom, Democracy. But it appears that in this society one can take not only monetary, but also moral advantage over another according to the law. As long as it is done "democratically". Basically with a class.
We did not know that those party boses would have thousands of more ways of robbing and plundering once in capitalist society. One thing left is for them to learn to do that smoothly and with class. Learn how to hide behind thousand skins, sold politicians and controlled media.

[Eddo211]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Big money needs population, without them they wont survive......everyone stop buying petrol for your car for two days and don't go to work for two days. I bet you it will be like the SHTF dripping and the fan is broken.

[Artashes]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

I agree with you except .......


An issue so socially and political important for the nation it should not be that hard for the President/Prime Minister to have been involved,
order an investigation, statement etc etc.

The fact that they are dozing off on the subject they either involved ( share of the pie) or doing a return favour to their commercial mates.

When diesel & home heating fuel (virtually the same) went up in price to exceed premium gas, the Alaskan general population did compel the Alaska legislators to conduct a congressional investigation due to the sensible uproar of fraud.
After many months, the legislators threw their hands up and said ... It seems as if " big money" has a legitimate reason to raise the price of a low refined product to more than a high refined product.

------ which walnut shell is the pea under?? --------
Big money conned the intire legislative body.
By adding complexity + referring to data -- only -- big money had that could not be readily contested, they fooled who? The legislators? The outside consulting firm?
All those entities, especially the legislators do not have clean hands. On the contrary, many if not most have a conflict of interest.
Take note --- the amount of gasoline sold and the price were not reduced. The cost of diesel & and heating fuel rose dramatically.
That was the goal.
This puzzle has been cracked by myself and others who are highly educated and in the know. However big money ownes the refineries and all data generated from operation, so the honest cannot "legitimately contest because data ownership is in hands of the frauds.
That is why the refinery up here was shut down in last few months. To realign and reinforce the fraudulent premise with contrived facts.
If the Alaska legislature , one of the wealthiest, and USA can have this fraud run past them,
Well what chance does Armenia have.
The only way I can see to beat this jerk act is for the ordinary to unite. Unfortunately, divide and conquer is in full force.
Disrupting unity is part and parcel with dividing and confusing.
The population ---- actually ---- possesses the power, not the " sophisticate " (lol) few.
This is the big secret hidden from the majority.
Artashes

[Hakob]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Can anybody tell me how much average household expenses are in Armenia during winter months in dollar amount? And if possible, how many cubic meters or feet is it? Or how much per cubic whatever unit they are charged on their bills?