Eurasian Customs Union

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

I think Georgia would more easily fit into the European union then Turkey but the Eurasian union can possibly hold more benefits in the longrun. Sure it would be of great value to Armenia if Georgia joins the Eurasian union but Georgia must do what is right for the Georgians.

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

I think Georgia would more easily fit into the European union then Turkey but the Eurasian union can possibly hold more benefits in the longrun. Sure it would be of great value to Armenia if Georgia joins the Eurasian union but Georgia must do what is right for the Georgians.

As secular and "modern" as Western Europe has become, after having experienced first had the Arab and Turk experience, I believe they have realized what we have known for the past 1300 years. So ya I think in those terms they would be more inclined to take a Christian country than Turkey. Furthermore, Georgia is a mere insect, that would be easily controlled, yielding near zero power, so they wouldn't have to worry about its influence (something that Turkey gives them, especially Germany, a lot of concern). But having said that, I just don't see them willing to take on yet another poor country that needs a lot of help to catch up. I think they have had it for the near future with struggling countries in the South/East needing to be bailed out and built up by the North/West.

Unfortunately, it seems the best case scenario right now is Georgia waiting and seeing how the Eurasian Union experiment plays out, and if they see its actually successful, then they take that path. Unfortunately that does not do us any good now or in the near future in terms of having a land access to the Union.

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

I suspect there will be more news coming soon revolving around the Eurasian union. I think there is something to be said about the fact that Armenia was one of the first to leave the soviet union and now is one of the first to get into the Eurasian union. The nature of the world power shifts is dynamic and despite the huge new energy sources which became available to the USA it is still in decline as a world power while we are seeing resurgence of Russia and the rise of Asian powers. The Eurasian union can be a extremely successful union because it can take advantage of this powershift. It is critical for Armenia to remain close to Russia because the only other power that has a interest in the caucuses is Iran but between Iran and Russia it is a nobrainer as to which power Armenia prefers. The EU and the USA simply do not care about the caucuses even the middle east is becoming more of a headache for the USA then it is worth especially now that it has gained some energy independence. While Armenia has no energy reserves to speak of it can take advantage of being a Eurasian Union member in many other ways. What is interesting is that Russia is becoming a world power without even really trying. Due to the inconsistent nature of USA foreign policies and their destructive nature the countries all over the world are looking to Russia as a reliable powerful partner because Russian foreign policy is rather consistent. You can see this shift by observing the growing number of state visits to Moscow from leaders of countries world wide particularly from the middle east region. Many people in the diaspora and Armenia see Europe as what they want to be a part of but the fact is Europe and USA are in decline and the future is bright in the east with countries like China, India, and a whole host of other Asian nations poised to rise and become the power center of the world. Soon people will be flocking to Asia and forgetting about Europe and USA and it will happen sooner then most people think. Thanks to strategic planing by Putin and his people Russia will be fueling these new eastern powers and that is why Russia does not care too much about what Europe says or does. The Eurasian union can be a powerful economic force bridging east and west and this is a situation Armenia has been in before and knows how to take advantage of it. There is much propaganda infused into societies by western forces who are less then excited about the new direction world events are taking so they try to slow things down to delay the inevitable but this delay would be costly to a country like Armenia because we have far fewer resources to recover from mistakes then larger more powerful countries thus it is important to make the right decision.

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

PLUSES OF THE CU FOR ARMENIA ARE NOT ONLY THE GAS PRICES

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Dec 9 2013

9 December 2013 - 8:29pm

By Vestnik Kavkaza

Last weekend, Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbayev talked on the
phone about the preparation of the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian
Economic Council scheduled for the end of December in Moscow. It is
unknown if the issue of Armenia's joining the Eurasian integration
associations was discussed. However, before the Russian president
expressed the opinion that "the Armenian experts , specialists,
economists considered all the benefits and advantages, all possible
preferences from such close collaboration work within these
cooperation, integration associations and made their choice ."

However, in Yerevan not everyone thinks so. Recently, Paruir
Hayrikyan , leader of "National Self-Determination" party , which
organized a rally in the capital of Armenia , expressed the view
that joining the CU, Armenia will face the threat of destruction
, and called the decision to join the Customs Union a "political
mistake." Secretary of the Board of "Heritage" party Stepan Safarian
during the socio-political discussion "Challenges of Armenia's foreign
policy after Vilnius" said that Armenia was in the "customs tunnel at
the other end of which there is no visible light." "We know that on
December 24 some sort of agreement will be signed, and in February
2014 the process of Armenia's accession to the Customs Union will
begin. And I want to publish this roadmap", Safarian said.

Meanwhile, Moscow does not see any specific threats to Armenia after
its accession to the CU. "Concerns in Armenia as well as in other
countries will be associated with the fact that with joining the
Customs Union the prices on certain goods, the import duties on which
will be raised, will increase", Andrey Areshev, expert of the Center
for the Study of Central Asia and Caucasus at the Institute of Oriental
Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said. "Duties within the
Customs Union on certain product groups, for example, certain cars,
household appliances, etc. will be higher than those, that now exist
in Armenia. Yes, indeed, probably, these fears have a place to be,
but when we talk about integration in the Customs Union we need, in
my opinion, to have a comprehensive view of the problem, to consider
advantages and disadvantages together and see what outweighs what".

In the case of Armenia, on the one hand we have this and on the other
side of the scale we have not only gas prices. "For example, a freer
movement and duty-free import of Armenian products, agricultural
products at the markets of the Customs Union, which is 80%. I recall
that once the Yerevan Brandy Factory was privatized by the French
largely because of the promises that Armenian brandy will appear
at Western European markets. And where is this market now? It is
practically not more than in 10 years. At the same time in Russia
nowadays, in Moscow, I can say from my own experience, nice,
interesting shops with Armenian goods are opening, where they can
be bought at moderate prices. This, too, is one of the directions,
of the projections of the Customs Union, with regard to certain
consumers and certain areas of the Armenian economy, which are in
demand in Russia and other countries of the Customs Union and for
which the market of the Customs Union is traditional", Areshev said.

According to him, "the main types of Armenian export products to Europe
are raw materials, raw copper-molybdene, gold-ferrous raw materials,
etc. The problem is that during twenty years of our independent
development the common chains of highly technological production
that existed in the Soviet Union, and I would like to remind you
that Armenia was one of the "technological" republics of the Soviet
Union as well as, incidentally, Ukraine, have fairly seriously been
damaged. And now they have to be rebuilt. And the Customs Union, in
my opinion, should create conditions for this process. Europe will
not do that, it does not need it".

http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/economy/48491.html

[Haykakan]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

WILL KARABAKH "JOIN" RUSSIA'S CUSTOMS UNION?

EurasiaNet.org
dec 10 2013

December 10, 2013 - 7:28am, by Giorgi Lomsadze

Armenia has made its choice between the two EUs -- the European Union
and the Eurasian Union-- but will it bring its de-facto addendum,
the breakaway territory of Nagorno Karabakh along with it into the
Russia-plus trade space? Some analysts believe that Karabakh will
indirectly end up enjoying the benefits of the Kremlin's economic
promised land.

Bent on taking the territory back, Azerbaijan poses a stumbling block
for the predominantly ethnic Armenian territory to reach out to the
outside world; meaning that Armenia is essentially the only friend
and trade partner Karabakh has.

In turn, since Russia is the main economic partner for semi-boycotted
Armenia, Karabakh by default is expected to gain access to the economic
zone coalesced around Moscow, some Armenians believe.

"Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh form one economic space," Alexander
Iskanderian, director of the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute, told
Russia's Gazeta.ru. "Armenian money works in Stepanakert, the banking
system and laws are closely integrated."

Officially, of course, it will not be a union of Russia, Belarus
Kazakhstan, Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. Not even Armenia has
recognized Karabakh as an independent state.

Nor, with all members of the union, Russia included, wary of angering
Azerbaijan, the formation of the Eurasian Union is not going to change
the diplomatic status quo for Karabakh.

But, as often happens in the Caucasus, it's what happens apart from
what's written that counts. Some observers expect that Karabakh's
produce, be it mulberry brandy or construction materials, could be
sold customs-free within the union as products of Armenia.

"Nobody is going to put customs checkpoints between Karabakh and
Armenia," said Viktor Yadukha, a Russian commentator. "Karabakh
will de-facto join the customs union," he told Azerbaijan's Vesti.az
news site.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67852

[Hakob]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Here is a very good article as to why European uion is useles in solving Armenia's security and economic problems.



Why the EU Can’t Play Hardball in Foreign Policy
by: JAN TECHAU
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2013



In a memorable scene from Brian De Palma’s 1987 gangster movie The Untouchables, Chicago police officer Jim Malone, played by Sean Connery, makes fun of an Italian mafia goon who tries to threaten him with a stiletto knife. Malone points his shotgun at the mafioso and remarks drily: “Isn’t that just like a wop? Brings a knife to a gun fight.”

Take out the racial slur of “wop,” a derogatory term for an Italian immigrant in the United States, and you have a pretty good description of the EU’s policy in its Eastern neighborhood. Involuntarily, the EU has entered into a geopolitical contest with Russia for which it is ill-equipped. It was a courageous decision to accept the fight instead of dodging it, but now doubts prevail over whether the EU can continue to compete in this contest over the long term.

Where do these doubts come from? Why can’t the EU play foreign policy hardball, just like any other big power?

First of all, the EU was not originally built to deal with political crises outside its borders, but to mediate in conflicts and avoid hegemony inside its borders. That is why, to this day, foreign policy often feels like an alien element in the EU setup, uncomfortably tacked on to the rest of the machine. That is also why the EU’s foreign policy rarely amounts to more than what it does at home: small-scale process instead of global strategy.

The very essence of the EU is to avoid the kinds of standoffs that often mark international crisis management. Its political culture is the opposite of controlled escalation: it is about controlled deescalation. The EU is structurally incapable of playing hardball, which makes its unusually brave stand against Russian intrusion in Ukraine so much more admirable—but perhaps also doomed to fail.

Second, blackmail is not really in the EU’s arsenal. True, the EU can be quite tough about the conditions that need to be met by countries seeking political agreements with the EU or admission into the single market. And soft coercion is not beyond the EU whenever it has the leverage to apply it. But essentially, the EU’s foreign dealings are based on voluntary agreements and good faith. The EU can make offers, and if countries reject them, then that’s regrettable, but so be it. What the EU can’t do is make an offer and then threaten to punish those that are unwilling to accept it.

In the end, of course, that’s a very sympathetic character trait of the EU. But it also means that the EU has one less tool in its arsenal than some other players who prefer to play the game based not on goodwill but on sheer force.

What is more, Europeans simply do not have the military power to back up their diplomatic efforts. In a situation of political hardball, that’s precisely what could come in handy. It is often forgotten that military power today is not primarily about the capacity to invade and conquer. Its primary purpose is the ability to issue security guarantees to partners and allies, so they can make policy choices free from the risk of being politically blackmailed by other, less well-intentioned players. That is what the United States still provides for Europe, but it is something that Europe, in turn, is unable to provide for others.

Another reason for the EU’s lack of hardball capability is that it is either unable or unwilling to invest large amounts of money in the regions where it has interests. That doesn’t mean just a few hundred million euros of aid spread over a decade, but real money, spent to create results.

The EU did not make such an investment after the Arab Spring, when merely opening up access to EU markets for locally produced goods could have stabilized the region’s moribund economies. Nor did the EU invest in its Eastern neighborhood, where large sums of money could perhaps have swayed political leaders more toward the West.

Of course, it would not be entirely ladylike to conduct business this way, but it is a harsh world out there. Other players find such behavior less objectionable.

That leads to the final factor in the EU’s hardball haplessness: the EU can’t easily discard its values and simply embrace cold-blooded realpolitik. More so than most nation-states, which have a wider array of sources for identity building, the EU really needs its values to maintain a basic level of unity.

Every liberal, open society needs the poetry of values to retain a healthy narrative of self. The EU, built on shakier, more artificial foundations, needs it twice as much. If the EU gives up too much of its values-based self, it may easily suffer irreparable damage. No wonder that it is often easier for the EU to stay on the sidelines than to get knee-deep in the geopolitical struggles in its wider neighborhood.

In sum, there are structural constraints that make the EU such an inept geopolitical player. And yet it would be deeply desirable if Europe could overcome some of these factors. Member states are too small to make a difference alone. Occasionally, when it really counts, Europe will need to stick together and play foreign policy hardball. Because in the long run, that’s not only better for the EU’s interests. It is better for its values, too.

[londontsi]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Ukraine leader 'wants to sign' deal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25345468

Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovych intends to sign a deal on closer EU ties after all,
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has told reporters.

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Ukraine, Russia to sign trade roadmap, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov says

Kiev, Ukraine (CNN) -- Ukraine and Russia plan to approve a road map to improved trade relations on Tuesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said Sunday in a late-night interview on Ukraine's national broadcaster, Inter TV.

The announcement comes just hours after a European Union officer said the EU had halted work on a trade agreement with Ukraine, after Kiev failed to show "clear commitment" to signing the deal.

Stefan Fule, European commissioner for enlargement and European neighborhood policy, said earlier Sunday on Twitter that the words and deeds of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his government on the proposed pact were "further & further apart. Their arguments have no grounds in reality."

Fule said he had told Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Arbuzov in Brussels, Belgium, last week that further discussion on the agreement was conditional on a clear commitment by Kiev to sign the deal, but he had received no response.
Photos: Ukraine protests Photos: Ukraine protests

"Work on hold, had no answer," he tweeted.
What in the World? Ukraine protests
Diplomat: Ukraine may sign EU pact
Russia says EU is bullying Ukraine

Last month, Kiev spurned the agreement in favor of closer economic ties with Moscow, and the prime minister's Sunday night interview revealed new details about that relationship.

Azarov said that in addition to the trade relations deal, he hoped an agreement could be reached Tuesday on gas commerce, which would hopefully provide a solution for Ukraine's unprofitable gas transportation system.

"We hope to renew negotiations about the three-party consortium, which would include Europe as well, to provide transparent conditions for gas transit and gas transportation system management," Azarov said.

However, Azarov rejected claims that Ukraine is leaning toward joining Russia and other former Soviet republics in the Customs Union.

"These are speculations. None of the papers we have prepared are in any way related to the Customs Union," he said.

Ukraine's recent diplomatic activity has sparked mass protests. Thousands of people have poured onto the streets of the capital, angered by the government's U-turn away from integration with Europe.

Setting up tents and barricades, they have stood their ground in Kiev's Independence Square, or Maidan, paralyzing the center of the capital.

On Sunday the protesters were addressed by U.S. Sen. John McCain, who has been critical of Ukrainian authorities' use of force against demonstrators.

"People of Ukraine, this is your moment. This is about you, no one else. This is about the future you want for your country. This is about the future you deserve," he said to loud cheers and chants of "Thank you."

"A future in Europe, a future of peace, with all of your neighbors. The free world is with you, America is with you, I am with you."

The senator visited Independence Square on Saturday, where he snapped pictures with his cell phone as he met with opposition leaders. He was accompanied on stage Sunday by Sen. Christopher Murphy, D-Connecticut.

"Ukraine will make Europe better and Europe will make Ukraine better," McCain said.

A pro-government rally was also being held Sunday.

The anti-government demonstrations are the biggest since the Orange Revolution overturned the results of the eastern European country's 2004 presidential election.

East vs. West

The EU had kept its offer on the table, and the bloc's top diplomat, Catherine Ashton, on Thursday said Yanukovych had assured her Kiev intended to sign the deal after she met with him.

A day earlier, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov told a government meeting Ukraine was still open to signing the European integration deal, if the European Union would agree to provide financial assistance to Ukraine of around 20 billion euros ($27.5 billion).

On Sunday however, an EU diplomat told CNN there was "lack of clear commitment and timetable."
Ukraine Protesters Young and Old
Ukraine's tug-of-war
Russia says EU is bullying Ukraine

"We have had no reply (on timetable) from the Ukrainian authorities and so there is no basis to continue work," the diplomat added.

Ukraine is split between pro-European regions in the west of the country and a more Russia-oriented east.

Protesters say an EU agreement would open borders to trade and set the stage for modernization and inclusion. They accuse Yanukovych of preparing to take the country into a Moscow-led customs union.

Moscow has leverage that may have affected Yanukovych's decision last month to backpedal on the EU talks because Russia supplies Ukraine with natural gas.

The EU is also pressuring Yanukovych to free his chief political opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko, who has languished in jail for two years after being convicted of abuse of power in 2011. The EU and other critics decried the verdict as a sham.

The Orange Revolution that swept Yanukovych from office in 2004 also brought the pro-Western Tymoshenko to power.

At the rallies in Independence Square, protesters have carried her picture.

Investigation

Kiev's handling of the protests has been met with stern responses from Western governments.

In an overnight crackdown last week, police tore down barricades the protesters had set up. Before that, violence had broken out at a previous demonstration.

Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating some top government officials over the beating of students at anti-government protests two weeks ago.

The subjects of the criminal investigation include Ukrainian Deputy Secretary for National Security Vladimir Sivkovich, Kiev Police Chief Valery Koryak and Kiev Mayor Oleksandr Popov. A fourth person also is under investigation.

The case will be put before a judge on Monday, who could order house arrest for those being investigated, said Valery Vilkova, spokeswoman for the general prosecutor.

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/15/world/europe/ukraine-protests/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

No, Russia Isn’t About to “Lose” Armenia
By Daniel Larison • August 6, 2013, 11:13 AM



Walter Russell Mead wonders if Armenia will alter its security relationship with Russia:

This festering tension has important geopolitical implications not just for Armenia and Russia but also for Iran. Tehran has been making overtures toward Yerevan recently, offering to expand economic and security ties. But if Armenia chooses to turn instead toward the EU and the West, and away from Iran and Russia, Iran might find itself more isolated than it already is.

This isn’t going to happen, but it’s still worth considering why it won’t. First, the Armenian government has no desire to rupture its relationship with Moscow, and Armenia needs Russia as a patron far more than Russia needs Armenia. Supposing that the Armenian government wanted to end its post-Cold War security relationship with Russia, how would it “turn” to the West? One of many reasons that Armenia remained in Russia’s orbit for the last two decades is that the U.S. mostly ignored Armenia and aligned itself with Armenia’s Turkish and Azeri neighbors after the Karabakh war. Russia and Iran have maintained good relations with Armenia for decades, and have prevented the country from being economically isolated, so what incentive would Armenia have to downgrade those relationships and seek closer ties with states that pay much more attention to Turkey and Azerbaijan?

Even if Armenia successfully joins the EU, which will presumably be a very long process in any case, it certainly isn’t going to become part of NATO. Armenia wouldn’t be able to join the alliance while the dispute over Karabakh remains unresolved, and there’s no evidence that Armenians in or out of government want to do this. Joshua Kucera summed things up last year in a report on Armenia’s relations with NATO and Russia:

It’s just understood that Armenia’s ties with Russia are so strong [bold mine-DL] that a few U.S./NATO cooperation programs here and there aren’t going to make any difference.

As angry as the Armenian public may be at the moment, most Armenians want to maintain good relations with Russia, a majority favors joining Russia’s customs union, and as of 2011 75% of Armenians approved of the performance of Russia’s leadership. This is not a country that Russia is likely to “lose” anytime in the near future.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/no-russia-isnt-about-to-lose-armenia/

[Mher]

Re: Eurasian Customs Union

Armenia's Customs Union accession: Russia's gains & losses

December 11, 2013 - 15:59 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - A Russian political analyst believes that Moscow will have to spend over $1 billion to cover expenses for Armenia’s accession to the Customs Union, Rosbalt reported.

“In political terms, however, the deal will come as beneficial to Russia. As to economy, it will still be on the losing side over reduction in gas price, cancellation of export duties, Iran-Armenia railway construction expenditures,” the head of the CIS strategic development center at RAS Institute of Europe Alexander Gusev said.

According to other sources, Russia’s expenditures over Armenia’s accession to the CU are expected to top $1 billion. However, Moscow will get a 100% share in joint venture ArmRosGazprom (up from current 80%), which means Russia will gain control over the entire gas distributing network and other strategic sectors in Armenia.

Even before the actual accession to the CU, Armenia got serious privileges for Russian export items: natural gas, oil products and diamonds.

According to EDB Centre for Integration Studies, for Armenia, the economic effect from Russia's export duty cancellation will amount to $140 million, with a 4,5% GDP growth predicted, Rosbalt said.

"Russia would probably be willing to offer more privileges in exchange for Armenia's accession to the CU, with the country as a medium for expanding Moscow’s presence in Caspian region and Near East and strengthening its position in South Caucasus. The simplest way to do that would be through increasing the Karabakh settlement efforts.

And it is no coincidence that the U.S. stressed the importance of the OSCE support for the Nagorno Karabakh Republic, Armenia and Ukraine right after the last two countries refused to sign the EU integration deal.

Thus, the center of gravity in Russia and West's struggle for the regional presence was shifted onto the unrecognized republic, with its increasing political weight enabling to influence Azerbaijan and Turkey, at the very least.

Meanwhile, the strengthening military cooperation between Armenia and Russia in CSTO framework is already changing the military balance in the region, stirring concerns in Azerbaijan, Turkey and the West. In December 2013, Armenia will be getting Russian weaponry at domestic prices, with all the negative consequences for Azerbaijan's national and regional security," Irina Jorbenadze said in a piece of opinion published at Rosbalt.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/173804/