Energy in Azerbaijan

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

" 'I think something really big is brewing in oil'

In the late fall of 2014, Pal correctly predicted that oil (CL=F) would fall to $40 a barrel. He now thinks the price could fall to $30."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/raoul-pal-i-think-something-really-big-is-brewing-in-oil-195744686.html

Aliyev's reaction

http://www.gettyimages.com/event/ex-azerbaijan-leader-geidar-aliev-dies-at-the-age-of-80-2806785?esource=SEO_GIS_CDN_Redirect#azerbaijani-president-ilham-aliev-and-his-wife-mekhriban-react-during-picture-id2812568

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

" Moody's says Kazakhstan more resilient than Azerbaijan in adjustment to lower oil prices

- Azerbaijan is more vulnerable to low oil price, given that its economy is more than three and a half times smaller and half as wealthy

- Geopolitics are more of a risk in Azerbaijan due to its ongoing conflict with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Kazakhstan-more-resilient-than-Azerbaijan-in-adjustment-to-lower--PR_363785

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Vrej, I read through that entire article on Razm, some of it went over my head to be honest but from what I understand it is essentially detailing the lack of oil reserves. Anything else significant that I missed?

It mentions something about oil being in Artsakh but i didn't fully understand that part either.

- The most interesting part is the estimation of the real cost of extracted oil. I have never seen such this estimations yet. Till now I was given cost of extractions higher than what we have here, and frankly speaking I am surprised manpower (positive effect of devaluation of the manat) was such a leverage.

- No talk of oil in Artsakh. It's just that they happen to name the would be oil fields off shore by imaginary names> So they can name one karapakh, the other Nakhitchevan, they may also name Yerevan...

- Ineteresting too the sharing of revenues between BP/state..

[Shant03]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Vrej, I read through that entire article on Razm, some of it went over my head to be honest but from what I understand it is essentially detailing the lack of oil reserves. Anything else significant that I missed?

It mentions something about oil being in Artsakh but i didn't fully understand that part either.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

http://razm.info/98350

oil factor for asarbaitchan in 2016
the best comprehensive analysis posted yet

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Oil collapses after OPEC report shows jump in Saudi output

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-collapses-after-opec-report-shows-jump-in-saudi-output-465958

Investing.com - Oil prices reversed overnight gains during North American morning hours on Tuesday, falling to a fresh four-month low after a report showed Saudi Arabia raised output back above 10 million barrels a day in February, underlining concerns over a global supply glut.

The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude April contract sank to a session low of $47.66 a barrel, a level not seen since November 30. It was last at $47.80 by 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT), down 60 cents, or around 1.2%.

Elsewhere, Brent oil for May delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London dipped 50 cents to $50.85 a barrel. The global benchmark touched a session low of $50.61 earlier, its cheapest since November 30.

In its monthly oil market outlook released earlier, OPEC said its members pumped 31.95 million barrels per day in January, down 139,500 barrels per day from January.

However, Saudi Arabia boosted production by 263,300 barrels a day to 10.011 million a day, reversing about a third of the cuts it made the previous month.

January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the next six months.

Kuwait is scheduled to host a ministerial meeting on March 26 comprising both OPEC and non-OPEC members to review compliance with the output agreement and to discuss whether cuts would be extended beyond June.

Investors now looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products.

Industry group the American Petroleum Institute is due to release its weekly report at 4:30PM ET (20:30GMT) later on Tuesday. Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday, amid forecasts for an oil-stock rise of 3.2 million barrels.

Last week's numbers showed U.S. output helped boost crude inventories to record highs, feeding concerns about a global glut.

Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for April shed 0.2 cents, or around 0.2%, to $1.492 a gallon, while April heating oil slipped 0.9 cents to $1.491 a gallon.

Natural gas futures for April delivery declined 1.6 cents to $3.027 per million British thermal units.

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

"Azerbaijan risks gas pipeline loans by quitting transparency monitor

Baku reacts to suspension for failing to address civil rights concerns
Azerbaijan has withdrawn from an international transparency watchdog in a move that jeopardises billions of dollars of loans for a gas pipeline to Europe.
The withdrawal throws into doubt current and future financing for Azerbaijan’s contribution to the $46bn Southern Gas Corridor pipeline to connect its Caspian Sea gasfields to European markets."

https://www.ft.com/content/4fad74e8-056c-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

I believe their oil fund has $33bn left if they are honest with their numbers.

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

U.S. crude hitting $42 by the end of April, and said it could dip below $40

https://cdn.rt.com/files/2017.02/original/58ac692ac46188827f8b459f.jpg

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Many market analysts are mentioning $42

"Oil is heading to $42 after speculators throw in the towel

Kilduff, a longtime bear and skeptic of OPEC's deal to curb production, said oil's more than 5 percent plunge to roughly three-month lows on Wednesday was the final nail in the coffin for speculators. The high trading volume indicates they are selling out of their bullish positions, he said.

Kilduff sees U.S. crude hitting $42 by the end of April, and said it could dip below $40."

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/09/oil-is-heading-to-42-as-speculators-throw-in-towel-says-john-kilduff.html

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Oil prices dive 5 percent as U.S. crude inventories balloon

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN16F05I

Oil prices plunged 5 percent to their lowest levels this year on Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories surged much more than expected to a record high, stoking concerns a global glut could persist even as OPEC tries to prop up prices with output curbs.

Crude stockpiles in the world's top energy consumer have been rising all year, and soared last week by 8.2 million barrels, more than quadruple the forecasts, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. [EIA/S]

The big daily price slide could signal a steep downward move if speculators are beginning to unwind long positions in crude oil, which were close to a record, traders and analysts said. [CFTC/]

Technical analysts said more selling could be triggered if prices break below support levels after being in a tight trading range this year.......

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