Energy in Azerbaijan

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Could stabilize at a low $50 but I think it will fall further. More Iranian oil is coming online and they want to sell export as much as they can to build up cash reserves and help their economy. Also, they want to prepare for the worst assuming the Western sanctions are reinstated.

Indeed, and North American frackers can stay in business at $60 a barrel and flood the markets then. Looks like we're seeing a $40-60 a barrel year in 2016.

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Considers Possible Free Float For National Currency

Azerbaijan is considering moving to a floating exchange rate for its national currency, the manat.

The chairman of the oil-rich former Soviet republic's central bank, Elman Rustamov, said at a parliamentary session on October 13 that Azerbaijani officials are currently discussing the possibility with international experts.

"The manat's rate is being determined by the global price of oil, as well as budgetary and currency policies of partner nations," Rustamov said.

He added the central bank's foreign reserves stand at $7 billion, which is less than half the amount they were last year.

Kazakhstan, another former Soviet republic that relies on oil exports for revenue, introduced a floating exchange rate for its currency, the tenge, on August 20.

Since then, the tenge has lost some 30 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar, sending ripples through Central Asia, a region already struggling with low global energy prices and economic slowdowns in China and Russia.

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/azerbaijan-free-floating-national-currency-manat/27303911.html

This country is falling apart faster than anyone expected. The war drums will soon start beating real hard

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan's National Security Minister Fired Without Explanation

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has dismissed his powerful security minister in an unexpected move against an official who was widely seen as an Aliyev loyalist.

Aliyev announced the dismissal of National Security Minister Eldar Mahmudov in a decree that was published on his website.

He did not provide any explanation for the decision.

The 59-year-old Mahmudov had served at the post since 2004.

Opposition politicians complained that Aliyev’s failure to explain the reason for Mahmudov’s firing showed that there is no transparency in the country’s political decision-making process.

Critics have long accused Aliyev of authoritarianism, corruption, and rights abuses.

Aliyev also dismissed his previous national security minister, Namig Abbassov, in July 2004 without providing any reason.

http://www.rferl.org/content/azerbaijan-security-minister-fired-without-explanation/27311878.html

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

SOFAZ expects deficit-ridden budget in 2015

http://www.azernews.az/business/89074.html

Azerbaijan's state oil fund SOFAZ expects its budget for 2015 to be deficit-ridden due to the long decline in world oil prices.
SOFAZ told Trend last week that while drawing up the fund's budget for 2015, the basic parameters of the state budget were taken as a basis and the expected oil price was set at $90 per barrel.

"Taking into account an oil price of $50 per barrel, SOFAZ’s total income, including the proceeds from the sale of oil and gas are predicted at 7.4 billion manats [$7.05 billion] until late 2015, which is 28 percent less than SOFAZ’s income approved for this year," SOFAZ said.
The fund's budget expenditure, including project financing and operation expenses, will amount to 9.6 billion manats ($9.15 billion), which is 19 percent less than the approved budget expenditures.

“Thus, given an oil price of $50 per barrel, excluding the currency exchange rate differences included in the investment portfolio of SOFAZ, the fund's budget deficit by late 2015 is forecasted at 2.2 billion manats [$2.1 billion],” said the fund.

In accordance with SOFAZ's budget for 2015, its revenues are estimated at 10.25 billion manats ($9.77 billion), with expenditures t 11.81 billion manats ($11.25 billion). In the structure of expenses of the fund, transfers to the state budget of the country were provided in the amount of 10.39 billion manats ($9.9 billion).
The decrease in oil prices in the world market began in September 2014. Experts predict that the price of oil will remain at current levels for the next two years.
The International Monetary Fund expects world oil prices to amount to $52 per barrel in late 2015 and $63 per barrel in 2016. At the same time, according to the IMF, the break-even price of oil for Azerbaijan in 2016 will be $60 per barrel, while in 2015, this figure will amount to $75, and in 2014, it exceeded $90 per barrel.
At the same time, the World Bank lowered its 2015 forecast for crude oil prices from $57 per barrel to $52 per barrel. The revised forecast reflects a further slowing in global economic performance, high current oil inventories, and expectations that Iranian oil exports will rise after the lifting of international sanctions.
This is all while the World Bank has lowered forecasts for oil prices for 2016 from $61 to $51 per barrel.

Israfil Mammadov, the Deputy CEO of SOFAZ, believes that lower oil prices along with the SOFAZ’s declining revenues have some positive impact on the fund’s investment portfolio.

“We invest in many oil importing countries in emerging economies which benefit from oil prices,” he earlier told local media, adding that in this case, the decrease in oil prices has a positive impact on SOFAZ’s portfolio.

SOFAZ, an entity that accumulates and manages Azerbaijan's oil and gas revenues, was established in 1999 with an asset worth $271 million.

The main goals of the fund include the accumulation of revenues, the investment of assets abroad to minimize negative impacts on the economy, the prevention of 'Dutch disease', ensuring savings for future generations, and maintaining the current social and economic standards in the country.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani Oil Fund’s Revenue was Declined by 2.5 times

Budget revenues of the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) reached 5 543.4 mln. manats ($ 5,279 billion US), while budget expenditures constituted 6 397.1 mln. manats ($ 6,093 billion US) in the first 9 months of 2015. Reminded here that Budget revenues of the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) for the period of January-September, 2014 was 10 131.9 mln. manats ($ 12,989 billion US), while budget expenditures constituted 8 041.2 mln. manats ($10,309 billion US). Those figures show also that SOFAZ’s revenue was declined by 2.5 times.
Revenue of 5 492.2 mln. manats was received from the implementation of oil and gas agreements, including 5 479.5 mln. manats from the sale of profit oil and gas, 2.2 mln. manats as acreage fees, 2.1 mln. manats as bonus payments and 8.4 mln. manats as transit payments.

The revenues from managing assets of the Fund for January-September 2015 amounted to 51.2 mln. manats.

The Fund’s extra-budgetary revenues related to the revaluation of foreign exchange totalled 7 828.3 mln. manats.
As per 2015 budget of the Fund, 5 650.0 mln. manats were transferred to the state budget. The expenditures in the amount of 130.4 mln. manats were directed to financing the improvement of socio-economic conditions of refugees and internally displaced persons. 67.8 mln. manats were used for financing the reconstruction of the Samur-Absheron irrigation system, 22.6 mln. manats were directed to financing Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway construction and 16.8 mln. manats were directed to financing “The state program on the education of Azerbaijan youth abroad in the years 2007-2015”. 489.3 mln. manats were directed to financing the “Southern Gas Corridor” project. Fund’s administrative and operational expenses for the reporting period were 20.2 mln. manats.

The assets of SOFAZ as of October 1, 2015 have dropped by 6.38% compared to the beginning of 2015 ($ 37,104 billion US.) and stood at $ 34,738 billion US.
For comparison, the assets of SOFAZ was $ 37,305 billion US as of October 1, 2014. That confirms that SOFAZ’s activities was dropped by 8.1 % during last year.

http://cesd.az/new/?p=9683

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan: 15 arrested over national security ministry case

World Bulletin / News Desk
15 people have been put in pretrial detention Wednesday in connection with the case of the Azerbaijani Ministry of National Security. Several others have been restricted from leaving the country.
The detainees are being held in the Justice Ministry's Penitentiary Service and the Baku detention facility.
Various high-level officials of the national security ministry are among those detained.
Later on, Head of Baku Telephone Communications Production Association (BTCPA) Beytulla Huseynov was brought to investigation and arrested after the court verdict. He is said to be a close relative of former Minister of National Security Eldar Mahmudov.

The MNS is undergoing staff reforms due to the latest incidents. The ministry’s several high-ranking officials have been dismissed or given a new position.

The investigation is still ongoing.

Earlier this month, Minister of National Security Eldar Mahmudov was sacked under the order of President Ilham Aliyev.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/caucasus/165794/azerbaijan-15-arrested-over-national-security-ministry-case

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Is this the work of the Armenian lobby? How about the anti-Azerbaijani forces conspiring against Aliyev in Europe? Maybe Nagorno-Karabakh war in 1988 and the IDPs have something to do with this? Or maybe Aliyev is now finally hitting that paranoia level we've been waiting for.

[Shant03]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Highly doubt Armenians have anything to do with this, things like this are common in Dictatorship types of government. Look at North Korea.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Highly doubt Armenians have anything to do with this, things like this are common in Dictatorship types of government. Look at North Korea.

I was being sarcastic as that is usually the rhetoric that comes out of Aliyev's mouth.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Carries Out Pre-Vote Roundup of Senior Security, Communications Officials

With its November 1 parliament vote just days away, Azerbaijan today continued a string of detentions of senior government officials from the national security ministry and communications ministry that has left observers struggling to explain.

On October 29, Vidadi Zeynolav, the chief of staff of the communications ministry, a high-profile body handling such nationally sensitive projects as Azerbaijan's first satellite launch, was detained for unclear reasons.

Azerbaijani news, however, reported that Zeynolav is "connected" to 59-year-old former National Security Minister Eldar Mahmudov, who was sacked earlier this month after 11 years in office.

To date, 22 arrests of officials related to government-run security or communications bodies have been reported.The first seven cases occurred after Mahmudov’s dismissal on October 17. An additional 15 followed on October 28.

Prosecutors say that the individuals were abusing their official powers or damaging "the rights and legitimate interests" of individuals or organizations, yet details of the cases remain under wraps. The hit list includes the deputy directors of Azerbaijan's counter-terrorism center and transnational organized crime center.

Apparently related to these arrests is also the dismissal and detention of Baku Telecommunications Production Association Director Beytulla Huseynov, a relative of ex-Minister Mahmudov. Huseynov’s brother, Hayrulla Huseynov, has been removed from a regional government post.

The government-friendly APA news agency noted yesterday that "[t]he investigation is still ongoing," but what precisely is being investigated or why remains unclear.

Ten years ago, ahead of Azerbaijan’s 2005 parliamentary elections, another roundup of senior government officials also occurred, but, that time, in connection with what prosecutors claimed was a coup-conspiracy. Critics dismissed the claim as a coverup for political motivations.

Local speculation about the true causes of this latest sweep-out does not seem to touch on a coup, but, in the absence of detailed government explanations, appears to be running wild — everything from racketeering to fraudulent currency schemes, according to an overview by Echo.az.

Whatever the cause of the detentions, the daily noted, the lack of a presidential decree appointing a successor for Mahmudov suggests that “certain urgent motives” prompted the decision to remove him. Mahmudov was seen as a loyal supporter of President Ilham Aliyev and served since 2004, after his predecessor was fired by Aliyev.

Nonetheless, the government has sought to reverse any sense that something is amiss. In an October 21 statement on its website, the national security ministry chastised media for spreading “false, slanderous information” about its employees, and underlined that it fulfills President Aliyev’s orders “without delay and conscientiously.”

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/75786

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22 taken out from the inside out.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

AZERBAIJANI OIL INCOME DECLINED BY 22.0 % IN OCTOBER

State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) 1.779 million tons of oil in October against 2.175 million tons in September, 1.211 million tons in August, 1.448 million in July, 2.264 million tons in June (the best index for 2015), 1.69 million tons of oil in May and 2.121 million tons in January. In October the oil was not exported via Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline versus September’s export at the level of 169,775 tons (this year’s peak), 84,913 tons in August, 167,711 tons in July.
Azerbaijani oil export declined by 18.2% in October against September 2015.

http://cesd.az/new/?p=9690