Energy in Azerbaijan

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

....
.. I betcha there is no valve on the sea floor.

I wonder if its the same story with the rest of the platforms.

It appears they are also spraying adjacent platforms.

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[Artashes]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Poor design, poor construction, and poor operating procedure. Nothing professional nor even close.
Everything I've seen so far regarding response is completly non professional. A sad joke. The response literally has no merit.

At the bottom of the sea where the hole that was drilled into the sea floor is, there should be a large valve that is pressure sensitive. If the raw hydrocarbon fluid exceeds a predetermined rate of flow, this valve should automatically close. This valve is by American standards only one of several valves and ways the flow can be stopped for any reason, including emergencys. It is that valve that was improperly installed that caused the gulf spill in the Louisiana catastrophe.
Those valves are extremely expensive and even more expensive to install.
The fire you see is from fuel comming straight out of the ground unimpeded except for pipe diameter.
They have --- NO --- control of that flow of fuel.
They're fkd.
PS.. I betcha there is no valve on the sea floor.

I wonder if its the same story with the rest of the platforms.

It appears they are also spraying adjacent platforms.

.

A very good question.
England/USA have set high standards for their own back yard. However if one tracks their conduct in such places as Africa, south America, or baboonistan etc, one will find the standards are geared toward spending less money in order to maximize profit (holy profit) at the expense of such things as safety and invironment concerns.
To save 5 million or more on 30 rigs means big bonuses for the -- TOP dogs --.
The above figures are simply to make a point. Most likely these baboon fields needed several billion $$$ more to meet England /USA standards.
The only thing mentioned as a "cause" is rough seas (mother nature), not one word of fault by anyone else other than mother nature. Cute.
There is more Texas two stepping going on in the Caspian then a dance hall in Houston right now.

[Joseph]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

http://asbarez.com/143832/banks-oil-manats-bluster/

BY GAREN YEGPAIRIAN

It seems to me I may have just realized why, over the past year and a half or so, Azerbaijan’s bellicosity and acting on that impulse have risen, costing dozens of Armenians and Azeris their lives. The reason for the increase in BOMBs (see the first letters of the title of this piece) and bullets emanating from the Azeri side must lie in the economy. So many aspects of it are shaky that one has to wonder if a crash is not imminent.

As is usually the case when it comes to economics, nothing is certain, much is subject to perceptions, many considerations are intertwined, one factor can push the economy in a positive direction while triggering another that pushes it in a negative direction, and matters are usually tough to fully comprehend.

The most recent news is the devaluation by close to 50% Azerbaijan’s currency, the Manat, on December 21. Coupled with an earlier devaluation (February 2015), the Manat now stands at half its value against the dollar relative to a year ago. On some levels, people in Azerbaijan, lost half their wealth in less than twelve months. This is because oil is usually bought and sold in dollars, much of international trade is in dollars, and Azerbaijan imports a lot of stuff.

How could this happen to an “oil rich” country like Azerbaijan, where the hydrocarbon industry accounts for some 40% of the economy? Oil prices have plummeted in the last year and a half, which means that the cushion provided by the brought in through the sale of that commodity is not as large as it once was. Couple this with the corruption rampant in Azerbaijan which enriches (at the expense of the country and its people) the president, his clan, and various others, and you have a recipe for serious economic trouble.

Interestingly, this drop in oil prices, which some have argued was engineered by the U.S. to hurt Russia, also, inevitably, hurt Azerbaijan. And, this “hurt” isn’t limited to the impact of lower oil income. Russia is one of Azerbaijan’s largest trading partners and home to (some estimates say) three million Azeris. The impact on Russia means less business and less money for Azerbaijan (trade is down by 24%). It means lower levels of remittances from Azeris living and working in Russia. It means some Azeris returning home, unemployed, creating even more of a burden.

In trying to buy time, the Central Bank of Azerbaijan has been using its foreign currency reserves to prop up the value of the Manat. This is done by using those reserves to buy Manats which props up its value. One estimate in July 2015 gave the bank another six to eight months of these reserves (at about $9 billion). That seems to make sense in light of the latest devaluation. But, The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s recent rate increase might also have served as a trigger, since the higher rate will tend to make the dollar stronger, meaning even more devaluation for the Manat.

Another source of comfort was Azerbaijan’s oil money reserve, which stood at some $37 billion. But $13 billion of that was used up in 2014. Undoubtedly, even more was consumed during 2015.

The crash of 2008 did not impact Azerbaijan as fast or as much as other places because its banking industry is a relatively small part of the economy, it is poorly integrated into the world banking structure, and the years 2012-14 were record years for oil income. This suggests to me that weaknesses in the economy were masked, intentionally and/or unintentionally. But now, it looks like Azerbaijan may be about to pay the price of its profligacy.

Let’s look at a few other numbers. Azerbaijan’s GDP (gross domestic product, probably the most commonly used measure of economies) registered astronomical growth in 2005-2006-2007 (26.4%, 34.5%, and 25%, respectively), at least in part due to oil pipelines that became functional then. Thereafter, growth slowed, even with the bump in oil money in the early part of the current decade. 2015’s growth is expected to be 2% and 2016, just 1%

Azerbaijan’s banks’ loan portfolios (how much money they have lent out) has declined by 21%.

Foreign trade overall and real estate investment are both down 29%.

With the lifting of the embargoes on Iran, Azerbaijan will face even more competition because Iranian oil costs less.

Starting at $1.6 billion in 2010, Azerbaijan’s military budget increased to – (in billions) $3.1 in 2011 and 2012, $3.7 in 2013, $4.8 in 2014, $5.0 in 2015 – but in 2016, it decreased to $1.8 billion. What does that suggest?

Large companies have recorded losses and the insurance market has declined.

What does all this mean, especially for Armenians?

Since the Aliyev regime is not stupid, (brutal –yes, corrupt – yes, autocratic – yes, but not stupid) it no doubt perceived the coming troubles 18 months ago. So, Aliyev has been getting ever “louder” in his anti-Armenian pronouncements. Heeding the advice implicit in Samuel Johnson’s observation that “Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel”, Aliyev and his cronies quiet obviously decided to escalate tensions along the Artzakh/Republic of Armenia border, BOMBs, soo they could later play on people’s patriotic sentiments.

The massive purchases of weaponry (remember the huge military budgets) provided a basis for bragging. Then, that hardware had to be used. Of course this meant killing Armenians, which, of course, meant retaliation and dead Azeris. This suited Aliyev & gang perfectly, since Azeri corpses meant families, and at least some portion of Azeri society, angry at Armenians and distracted from their day to day problems and the corruption of the elites in Baku.

Now that the anticipated economic problems have struck, with stores closing or unwilling to sell products for fear of LOSING money (because of the currency devaluation), banks in a tight spot, foreign exchange being limited and people ending up stuck with Manats they don’t want, and overall dissatisfaction among citizens being sharpened by the pain in their wallets, the Aliyev regime can play on the anti-Armenian, bellicose sentiments it has been creating.

Otherwise, opposition forces, which are already chiming in with their critiques could become a very serious problem for Baku’s crooks. One cleverly phrased commentary is, “Azerbaijan has moved to a floating exchange rate but someone forgot to teach it how to swim,” from Natiq Cafarli, an economist and member of the opposition Republican Alternative.

It is very unfortunate that in this season of merriment, we have to witness what might be the onset of an even bloodier period. As has already been observed, there is no longer a ceasefire along the Armenian/Azeri line of contact. Rather, it might best be described as a very low-level war.

It’s time to brace ourselves, some very unpleasant days may be looming. Let’s all, worldwide, push our governments, even the Azeri and Turk loving fools in the State Department, to act now to prevent Azerbaijan from escalating the level of bloodshed.

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

lol almost all the data in that article is frighteningly wrong.
I don't understand how people write articles about topics they don't understand and cite data, without fearing looking dumb. It's not like one or two things. It's like a solid 70% of numbers stated in that article are completely wrong.

[Eddo211]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Alot of people do not look at the links and believe what they want to hear.

Armenians......who are they?

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

BAKU, Dec. 30 (Xinhua) -- Azerbaijan will probably close its diplomatic missions in a number of countries, local media reported Wednesday, citing spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

Spokesman Hikmat Hajiyev said "this issue is being seriously considered by the government in order to minimize effects caused by the situation in the global energy market," according to news agency TREND.

The economy of Azerbaijan has been hit hard by falling oil prices, as the energy-rich ex-Soviet republic mostly relies on oil exports for revenue.

Last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed an order to recall Azerbaijani diplomats from several countries.

On Dec. 21, Azerbaijan abandoned its currency peg and moved to a floating rate. The manat's plummet spurred jitters, with major retailers halting business in the country and anxious consumers fearing for their future.

The central bank said it abandoned the currency peg because "falling oil prices and the continuing devaluation of partner countries' currencies has begun to negatively affect the Azerbaijani economy."

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-12/31/c_134965892.htm

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Azerbaijan's "Caviar Diplomacy" is coming to a crashing halt.

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

BAKU, Dec. 30 (Xinhua) -- Azerbaijan will probably close its diplomatic missions in a number of countries, local media reported Wednesday, citing spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

Spokesman Hikmat Hajiyev said "this issue is being seriously considered by the government in order to minimize effects caused by the situation in the global energy market," according to news agency TREND.

The economy of Azerbaijan has been hit hard by falling oil prices, as the energy-rich ex-Soviet republic mostly relies on oil exports for revenue.

Last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed an order to recall Azerbaijani diplomats from several countries.

On Dec. 21, Azerbaijan abandoned its currency peg and moved to a floating rate. The manat's plummet spurred jitters, with major retailers halting business in the country and anxious consumers fearing for their future.

The central bank said it abandoned the currency peg because "falling oil prices and the continuing devaluation of partner countries' currencies has begun to negatively affect the Azerbaijani economy."

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-12/31/c_134965892.htm

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Azerbaijan's "Caviar Diplomacy" is coming to a crashing halt.

A little refresher

and a lesson in modesty

From Feb 2010

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[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

A little refresher

and a lesson in modesty

From Feb 2010

.

Not sure what you're talking about. Aliyev junior is an educated guy, he is going to have to use his brains now to save his country from collapse and the warring factions from ousting him.

[Artsakh]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

A piece from an MSN article:

Ahead of the new year, the price of oil traded well below last year's rates, thanks in part to Saudi Arabia's oversaturation of the market, which sent prices plummeting in 2015. But if you thought that downward trend for barrels of black gold can't possibly be sustained over the next 12 months, think again.


Oil has become a destructive and potent weapon in the complex geopolitics of the Middle East, and one being wielded without mercy by Saudi Arabia against its regional rival, Iran. The oil-producing superpower has intentionally flooded the market to ensure that Iran, which is ramping up its own oil production ahead of economic sanctions being lifted, benefits as little as possible. Combined with a slowdown in Chinese demand for oil and the end of a U.S. export ban of the valuable commodity, another torrid year for oil is likely looming, energy analysts and experts said.

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan continues to battle Guneshli rig fire

http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/society/2476446.html

Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 3

Trend:

The ministry of emergency situations of Azerbaijan continues measures to eliminate the consequences of the accident at the deepwater platform No. 10 of the country’s offshore Guneshli oil field, the ministry’s website said Jan. 3.

A fire broke out on the offshore platform Dec. 4, as a strong storm damaged an underwater high-pressure gas pipeline. As many as 33 people were rescued in an ensuing large-scale operation. The bodies of eight killed were retrieved, while 22 oil workers are still listed as missing.

Two Azerbaijani firefighting vessels still battle the fire, while the search for the missing oil workers continue, according to the ministry of emergency situations of Azerbaijan.