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  • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

    Georgia: Azerbaijan Wins Gas Deal Over Russia, Iran

    Gone is the fear of betrayal, and bilateral love, once again, is in the air. Georgia, the strategic crossroads for energy alternatives to Russia, finally announced on March 4 its pick for a supplier of extra gas, and the choice is longtime partner, Azerbaijan. The decision appears to knock both Iran and Russia’s state-run Gazprom out of the running, but still leaves the door open to collaboration between all four countries in other energy spheres.

    “We’re glad that the talks ended with success and that we’ve made it to a decision that will deepen our strategic partnership [with Azerbaijan] even more, about which not a single doubt ever existed,” a contented Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili declared at a meeting in Tbilisi with Rovnag Abdualayev, president of the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic (SOCAR).

    Abdullayev, in turn, underlined that SOCAR “will continue its support for Georgia’s government;” in particular, by shelling out “various forms of investment” into the country.

    The total amount of this “investment” — conceivably, a deal sweetener — is not known, but Georgia did manage to squeeze Azerbaijan’s commercial gas prices down a notch, from $318 to approximately $278-$283 per 1,000 cubic meters. It will receive an additional 500 million cubic meters of gas per year, an amount which Energy Minister Kakha Kaladze now claims “satisfies the market” demand.

    That established, Tbilisi appears ready to call it a day with its gassy flirtation with the Russian energy-giant Gazprom. Gone is any talk about the advantages of “diversification” away from Azerbaijan, the source of most of Georgia's gas.

    While the talks with Gazprom aren’t yet finished, Kaladze told reporters on March 4, the Georgian government’s “final proposal” to Gazprom is that the two sides leave things as they are — a 10-percent annual cut for Georgia out of Russia’s gas shipments to neighboring Armenia. No date has been announced for the next Gazprom rendez-vous.

    But nor will Tbilisi be linking up with Iran on gas. While Iranian gas purchases are “theoretically” possible, Kaladze stated, “today the necessity [for that] does not exist.”

    So far, no sign of hard feelings. The spurred Gazprom and National Iranian Gas Export Company have not commented. Armenia, which enjoyed a brief run of celebrity as a possible energy-transit country for gas-shipments to Georgia from Iran, also has not made any remark.

    Domestic critics of the Georgian government, though, don’t entirely buy it that Gazprom is now off the table. The various lines used by the government to justify its earlier talks with Gazprom made one opposition MP believe that Kaladze was just “throwing ash” in the public’s eyes. Another anti-Gazprom protest has been scheduled for March 6 in Tbilisi.

    But some players are already on to the next big thing. Iranian Energy Minister Hamid Chitchian, for one, is looking forward to an electricity exchange between Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia, with Iran exporting power in winter, and importing in summer. “This way we could all decrease construction costs for . . . new power plants,” the state-run Iranian news agency Fars quoted him as saying.

    What goes for Azerbaijan, also goes for foe Armenia. Last December, Georgia, Russia and Iran penned a deal with Yerevan about a similar power-trade.

    So, don’t expect this energy drama to end anytime soon.

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    • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

      The official rate of Manat has dropped to 1.61 vs $1


      Azeri central bank has burned $372mln of its reserves in February, reserves have dropped to $4B!

      Comment


      • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

        Azerbaijan bumps up rates to support currency (again)

        Azerbaijan’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 7 per cent on Friday, the second rise in under a month aimed at propping up the currency, the manat.


        The central bank said in a statement that it was raising rates from 5 per cent to “ensure sustainable macroeconomic stability” as well as emboldening more Azeris to put deposits in the manat, the beleaguered national currency, writes Max Seddon. The upper limit of Azerbaijan’s interest rate corridor rose to 17 per cent, while the lower limit remained at 2 per cent. At 7 per cent, the benchmark rate is now at its highest point since 2008.

        Azerbaijan last raised rates on February 15 for the first time in nearly five years in an attempt to slow the continued weakening of the manat, the worst-performing currency in the world last year. Last December, Baku abandoned its dollar peg, sending the manat’s value plummeting by almost a third in one day. The dollar hasn’t backed down against the manat since, as you can see from the chart below.

        The fall in the oil price has hammered Azerbaijan, which relies on energy for three-quarters of its government revenues. Last month, Standard & Poor’s cut its rating to junk after the central bank’s reserves diminished by about two-thirds in 18 months. The government has also imposed capital controls and discussed a possible assistance package from the IMF.



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        Basically, this fools are still trying to rescue the Manat. A poster above just posted a $372mln dollar drop in their reserves from the CBA, but that's also just the CBA. It seems that SOFAZ is also now in the fight to stop the bleeding.

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        • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

          "Oil Prices Should Fall, Possibly Hard


          Oil prices should fall, possibly hard, in coming weeks. That is because fundamentals do not support the present price.

          Prices should fall to around $30 once the empty nature of an OPEC-plus-Russia production freeze is understood. A return to the grim reality of over-supply and the weakness of the world economy could push prices well into the $20s."

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          • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

            Central Bank Depleted by Azeri Crisis as Oil Brings No Boost

            As authorities tried to to cope with the fallout from collapsing oil prices, the central bank and the state oil fund have stepped in to provide lenders with dollars at auctions. While the central bank has sold no foreign currency this month after extending $367.5 million in February, the wealth fund, known as Sofaz, has already more than doubled its sales to $368 million in March.
            “The state oil fund will bear the brunt if the government chooses to defend the manat,” said Aliyev at the Center for Economic Initiatives. “The central bank may also allow a soft devaluation of the manat to hold on to reserves.”
            Foreign-currency auctions by the oil fund have allowed the central bank to avoid interventions this month, Namiq Aliyev, a spokesman for the regulator, said in an e-mailed response to questions. Sofaz offered $200 million on Friday, receiving bids from 25 banks for $68.4 million.
            The wealth fund, which receives most of the government’s oil-linked revenue and uses transfers to finance the budget, had $33.6 billion in assets as of Jan. 1 after a 9.5 percent slide in 2015. Oxford Economics Ltd. estimated that central bank reserves provided barely three months of import cover at the end of January. The holdings declined another 8.5 percent to $4 billion in February.
            The threat of a fiscal or balance-of-payments crisis in Azerbaijan is increasing, according to Patrick Dennis, an analyst at Oxford Economics in London.
            “Clearly the situation has continued to deteriorate,” he said. “The main triggers for further concern are a renewed fall in the oil price or prolongation of the current price weakness.”

            Comment


            • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan



              What an indignity for the Sultan.

              Once his power was oil ..... now its tomatoes ....

              Not even Serj Sarkissyan would pose in front of tomatoes.
              He would leave it to his agriculture minister.
              Last edited by londontsi; 03-14-2016, 02:39 AM.
              Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
              Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
              Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

              Comment


              • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                Originally posted by londontsi View Post


                What an indignity for the Sultan.

                Once his power was oil ..... now its tomatoes ....

                Not even Serj Sarkissyan would pose in front of tomatoes.
                He would leave it to his agriculture minister.
                There is an other reason.
                Turkey used to export thousands of tons of tomatoes to Russia. Most of all during winter, products from under celophan, intensive agriculture.
                Since the russian sanctions, those producers were at first in dire situation.
                They immediately shifted for a "transit via Azerbaijan", and rebranding as made in azerbaijan.
                Of course Baku is not known to have that potential to feed alone Russian market, russians do perfectly know... Putin must have made an allusion.
                This photo is made specially to prove the contrary....

                By the way, the boxes are labelled in "universal" turkish : gozal tabiat, that is beautiful nature.... and are by deffinition full of chemichals from Sumgait chemical industry phosfats... since intensive agriculture, under cover...
                Last edited by Vrej1915; 03-14-2016, 09:02 AM.

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                • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                  Azeri 2015 balance of payments deficit at $11.3 bln - cenbank

                  MOSCOW, March 30 (Reuters) - Azerbaijan's central bank said on Wednesday that it saw a $11.3 billion deficit in the country's balance of payment last year, against a $4.2 billion surplus in 2014, as country faced with lower prices of oil, its chief exporting commodity.

                  While the oil and gas sector still saw a surplus in its balance of payments, the amount halved to $10.1 billion in 2015 from a year earlier, the bank said on its web site.

                  A crash in oil prices has sent the economy of the third-biggest ex-Soviet oil producer into a crisis and forced the central bank to a series of measures to keep the manat currency from sliding too fast and the banking sector somewhat functioning.

                  The central bank had assumed an average 2015 oil price of $98 per barrel, while crude averaged only half of that last year, or $48 per barrel, the bank said.

                  The bank also said that foreign trade volume of Azerbaijan, where energy accounts for 75 percent of state revenues fell by a third to $25.4 billion, and trade surplus was down to $5.8 billion, from $18.9 billion seen a year earlier. (Reporting by Nailia Bagirova; Writing in Moscow by Lidia Kelly; editing by Vladimir Soldatkin)

                  http://af.reuters.com/article/energy.../idAFL5N172145

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                  OUCH! More of the same in 2016...

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                  • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                    Azeri oil fund SOFAZ sells $1 mln on FX market on Friday



                    The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) said it had sold $1 million on the foreign exchange market on Friday to support the national manat currency.

                    The fund said it offered $100 million and $1 million was bought by one commercial bank.

                    SOFAZ launched currency interventions in January in a bid to prop up the weakening manat. Intervention volumes declined since then. It has sold $482.25 million in March.

                    A crash in oil prices has sent the economy into a crisis and forced the central bank to a series of measures to keep the manat currency from sliding too fast and the banking sector somewhat functioning. (Reporting by Nailia Bagirova; Writing by Margarita Antidze; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

                    .
                    Politics is not about the pursuit of morality nor what's right or wrong
                    Its about self interest at personal and national level often at odds with the above.
                    Great politicians pursue the National interest and small politicians personal interests

                    Comment


                    • Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

                      Comment

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