Energy in Azerbaijan

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

"Outlook Report, that they expect Light crude oil to hover around $34.04 in 2016 and go to $40.09 in 2017."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article54708.html

The dictator needs it to be around $70+ to survive. My prediction it will stay low for a long time.

"The problem is that China's got too many companies producing things like coal and steel, and the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) doing this have racked up debt that's now eating up their profits. The government is trying to shift the whole economy from its dependence on manufacturing, and it has already said that millions of people in some of these industries are going to be laid off in the next few years."

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-unloads-overcapacity-on-the-world-2016-4

[Haykakan]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

"Outlook Report, that they expect Light crude oil to hover around $34.04 in 2016 and go to $40.09 in 2017."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article54708.html

The dictator needs it to be around $70+ to survive. My prediction it will stay low for a long time.

"The problem is that China's got too many companies producing things like coal and steel, and the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) doing this have racked up debt that's now eating up their profits. The government is trying to shift the whole economy from its dependence on manufacturing, and it has already said that millions of people in some of these industries are going to be laid off in the next few years."

http://www.businessinsider.com/china...e-world-2016-4

With the world economies continuing to languish and new supplies of oil continuously being discovered, the oil prices are unlikely to go up too much unless the cartels cooperate and reduce production. Even in that scenario, thanks to fracing the price can only go up so much.

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

With the world economies continuing to languish and new supplies of oil continuously being discovered, the oil prices are unlikely to go up too much unless the cartels cooperate and reduce production. Even in that scenario, thanks to fracing the price can only go up so much.

You are correct! Oil fracking is the back up to keep prices under $50.
Once it hits $50 the fracking boys will go back at it full force.
Also, there are plenty of countries relying on their oil curse.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSR4N178000

---

SOFAZ is now subsidizing the manat. Good news that they're using their reserves. That's 25 less drones they can buy.

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

EIA reveals forecasts for Azerbaijani oil production

By Aygun Badalova - Trend:

Azerbaijan's oil production will amount to 0.81 million barrels per day in 2016 and 0.8 million barrels per day in 2017, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) forecasts published in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

In its previous STEO EIA forecasted Azerbaijan's oil production at 0.87 million barrels per day in 2016 and 0.86 million barrels per day in 2017.

EIA expects the country's oil production at 0.8 million barrels per day in Q1 and Q2 of 2016, 0.81 million barrels per day in Q3, and 0.84 million barrels per day in Q4 of 2016.

The lowest level of Azerbaijan's oil production in 2017 will be observed in the fourth quarter - at 0.78 million barrels per day, according to the EIA's forecasts.

In Q1 of 2017, EIA forecasts the country's oil production at 0.83 million barrels per day, in Q2 - at 0.81 million barrels per day, in Q3 - at 0.79 million barrels per day.

The main oil output in Azerbaijan comes from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field. This offshore block produces Azeri Light oil with 0.15 percent sulfur and 35 degrees API.

The contract for the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli development, with proven reserve of nearly 1 billion tons of oil, was signed in 1994.

Azerbaijan produced 41.69 million tons of oil and gas condensate in 2015, or 0.8 percent less than in 2014, according to the State Statistics Committee. This is while 41.9 million tons of oil and gas condensate were produced in Azerbaijan in 2014, compared to 43.1 million tons in 2013.

Azerbaijan's proved oil reserves amounted to 7 billion barrels at the end of 2014, according to BP's Statistical Review.

http://en.trend.az/business/energy/2504533.html

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

SOCAR lowered year-on-year oil production by 7.5% for Jan-Feb 2016

Baku, Fineko/abc.az. The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) has announced that its oil production for Jan-Feb 2016 decreased by 7.5% compared with Jan-Feb 2015.

According to the Company, by 1 March 2016 it produced 1.25 million tons of oil against 1.35 million tons for Jan-Feb 2015. In January the index reached only 647,000 tons and in February 605,000 tons.

Over the past two months of 2016 Azerbaijan produced 6.857 million tons of oil against 6.96 million tons a year earlier.

In 2015 SOCAR produced 8.159 million tons of oil against 8.3 million tons in 2014.

As a whole, country’s production for 2015 totaled 41.58 million tons against 42.067 million tons in 2014.

SOCAR oil production peak in 2014 was registered in March (741,500 tons) and in 2013 (716,200 tons).

http://abc.az/eng/news/95049.html

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Brent hits 2016 high on report Saudis, Russia agree to freeze


Brent reached a 2016 high above $44 a barrel on Tuesday on a report Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to follow through with a production freeze regardless of whether Iran participates in the plan to tackle a supply glut.

Crude prices rose earlier in the session on hopes for the upcoming meeting, and by a weak U.S. dollar and further signs of strong demand in China.

Members of OPEC and outside producers such as Russia are meeting in Doha, Qatar on Sunday to discuss freezing output. The dollar fell to its lowest in nearly eight months against a basket of currencies, supporting commodities.

The Saudis and Russians have reached consensus to hold production steady, Bloomberg reported, citing Interfax. The Russian Oil Ministry declined to comment.

Brent crude futures were up $1.61, or 3.8 percent, at $44.44 a barrel by 11:17 a.m. ET (1517 GMT), after rising to the highest level since Dec. 4.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up $1.34, or 3.3 percent, to $41.70 a barrel, having hit a three-week high.


On the charts, Brent broke through resistance at the 200-day moving average, which stood at $43.53. A move above this, plus the narrowing Brent contango, could lead to further gains.

Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix, said earlier on Friday if the 200-day moving average is broken, he "would expect to see more speculative flows coming into crude oil."

Senior Iraqi oil official Falah Alamri said he was confident the Doha meeting would result in a deal to freeze output, which would signal that prices have bottomed out. Brent hit a 12-year low close to $27 in January.
"The weak dollar is one important reason," said Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank. "Also, the fact that we are above $40 and at multi-month highs is also contributing to the price increase as it is prompting some speculative buying."

Also supporting prices was rising vehicle sales in China — a further sign of strong gasoline demand in the No. 2 consumer —and a plan by thousands of oil and gas workers in Kuwait to go on strike from Sunday.

"If it is not clear if the strike will last long and will have any meaningful impact on exports or domestic production (including refineries), it does illustrate further the amount of pain that (Gulf) oil producers are also facing at current price levels," said Olivier Jakob, analyst at Petromatrix.

Oil prices have collapsed from above $100 in mid-2014 due to oversupply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision in November 2014 to abandon its traditional role of cutting output deepened the decline.


In a sign that oversupply may be easing, the structure of the Brent crude market has strengthened and the discount at which the first-month contract is trading to the second — known as contango — has narrowed significantly.

This is partly in response to oilfield maintenance in the North Sea in June that will reduce supply of the crudes underpinning the Brent benchmark.

Crude gained a boost last week after a surprise decline in U.S. inventories from a record high. But this week's U.S. supply reports are expected to show an increase in stocks of 2.8 million barrels.

Industry group the American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its report on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. EDT, while the government's figures are due out on Wednesday.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/11/oil-prices-dip-but-hold-above-40-ahead-of-producer-meeting.html

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Iran exports already up by 600,000 barrels a day from 1.1 mill/day to 1.7 mill/day. Projected to increase 2,300,000 bpd more to reach 4.0 mill/day by next march. Kim Jong Aliyev better be planning his exit strategy



Iran’s daily oil exports surge by 600,000 barrels in three months as OPEC meeting looms

Posted on April 11, 2016 | By Collin Eaton

HOUSTON – Iran is selling three times more oil to India even as its rival oil-producing nations try to work out a deal to cap their collective crude production.

The Islamic Republic’s oil exports have surged by 600,000 barrels a day since December, the month before the United States and five other western powers lifted strict economic sanctions against Iran.

And so far, India has embraced the country’s return to the market by increasing Iranian imports more than any other country, while Europe’s refiners have been much slower to increase purchases of Iran’s oil, according to Genscape, which tracks oil tanker movement.

“They’ve outperformed what the market expected,” and it’s largely thanks to India, said Amir Bornaee, an analyst at Genscape in the Netherlands, in an interview on Monday. All told, Iran’s exports climbed by 140,000 barrels a day last month, reaching 1.7 million barrels a day, according to Genscape.

Some oil-market analysts believed Iran would fall short of its promise to raise its crude exports from 1.1 million barrels a day exports to 2 million in the first few months after the sanctions were lifted.

But, earlier this month, India reportedly agreed to buy a monthly haul of 400,000 barrels a day from Iran starting in April, which would easily bring Iran’s overseas sales above its short-term target. Reuters reported the deal earlier this month, citing unnamed sources.

Iran’s exports to India have climbed from 190,000 barrels a day in January to 540,000 barrels a day in March, overtaking Nigeria as the third-largest oil exporter to India, Genscape says.

So far, most of Iran’s export hike to India has displaced Iraq’s and Nigeria’s sales to refineries along India’s eastern coastline. Iran’s fight for market share hasn’t greatly increased Middle Eastern exports to the rest of the world, as crude output among other OPEC nations has slipped somewhat.

“Global supply hasn’t been extremely affected,” Bornaee said. “It’s displacing other countries.”

But Iran’s recent deal with India and its rising crude exports cast some doubt on the effort by Saudi Arabia, Russia and other large crude exporters to stem the decline in oil prices by agreeing to freeze production levels. Several members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters are meeting in Qatar on April 17 to discuss a freeze.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia said it won’t cap its oil production unless it is joined by all other major oil producers, including Iran. It’s unclear whether or not Saudi Arabia is merely posturing to bring Iran to the negotiating table, but experts say there are several reasons to take the Kingdom at its word.

“Right now, Saudi Arabia’s biggest political and economic objective is to slow down Iran’s emergence as a major economic player,” even if it means lower oil prices, said Praveen Kumar, executive director of the UH Global Energy Management Institute at the University of Houston, in an April 1 interview.

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/04/11/irans-daily-oil-exports-surge-by-600000-barrels-as-opec-meeting-looms/

Iran and Oil: You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-and...yet-1460305449

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

AZERBAIJAN’S ECONOMY CONTRACTS BY 3.2PC IN JAN-FEB

BAKU: Azerbaijan's economy contracted by 3.2 percent year-on-year in January-February compared with growth of 4.2 percent in the same period last year, the State Statistics Committee said on Friday.

"The decline in gross domestic product in January-February was caused by a decline in output and services in the oil and gas industry, construction sector and transport," the committee said in a statement.

The oil sector declined by 1.3 percent while the non-oil sector declined by 5.5 percent.

Economic growth slowed to 1.1 percent last year from 2.8 percent in 2014, well below official forecasts, because of low oil prices and the devaluation of the national manat currency.

The country forecasts 1.8 percent growth in 2016.

http://www.brecorder.com/world/global-business-a-economy/285778-azerbaijans-economy-contracts-by-32pc-in-jan-feb.html

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

IMF: Azerbaijan’s economy now expected to contract 3% against the 2.5% growth projected in October

http://arka.am/en/news/economy/imf_downgrades_2016_economic_growth_outlook_for_armenia_to_1_9/