Energy in Azerbaijan

[Zeytun]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

macroeconomic figures in Azerbaijan in Q1
GDP change: -4.1% Inflation: 14.5%


http://cesd.az/new/wp-content/upload...arter_2016.pdf

Nice Numbers, So unemployment would start to hit hard in the next couple of months, specially after this summer, and Inflation is high, boom They have stagflation. The gap between expectation and reality is getting bigger in azerbaijan.

"Rising expectations are the principal driving force for social development. However, the faster and higher aspirations rise, the greater the gap between expectations and reality. That gap promotes a sense of frustration, depravation and aggression leading to social unrest and violence."

" In economics, stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It raises a dilemma for economic policy, since actions designed to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment, and vice versa."

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

"Get Ready For A Texas-Sized Oil Spill On The Market

WASHINGTON, D.C. — As U.S. oil prices near $45 per barrel, some producers could start bringing wells online, with more than 1 million barrels a day in Texas alone ready to be tapped.

Shale companies have held off on completing thousands of wells, choosing to save money and wait for oil prices to rebound. Drilling accounts for 40% of a new well’s cost, while completion accounts for 60%, according to Suzanne Minter, manager of oil and gas consulting at Platts Analytics, in prepared remarks to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Tuesday.

Producers also have been improving efficiency and slashing costs, which means that they can pump oil profitably at lower prices. The breakeven price is now about $45-$55 per barrel, depending on the play, Minter said, adding that she wouldn’t be surprised if some producers start to pump at $40 a barrel.

On Tuesday, U.S. crude futures rose 3.3% to settle at $44.04 a barrel, and Brent climbed 2.8% to $45.74.

If producers in Texas alone decided to complete all their 2,500 drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells at once, they could add 1.25 million barrels of oil per day to the world market, Minter estimated."

http://www.investors.com/news/get-ready-for-a-texas-sized-oil-spill-on-the-market/

[Haykakan]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

"Get Ready For A Texas-Sized Oil Spill On The Market

WASHINGTON, D.C. — As U.S. oil prices near $45 per barrel, some producers could start bringing wells online, with more than 1 million barrels a day in Texas alone ready to be tapped.

Shale companies have held off on completing thousands of wells, choosing to save money and wait for oil prices to rebound. Drilling accounts for 40% of a new well’s cost, while completion accounts for 60%, according to Suzanne Minter, manager of oil and gas consulting at Platts Analytics, in prepared remarks to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Tuesday.

Producers also have been improving efficiency and slashing costs, which means that they can pump oil profitably at lower prices. The breakeven price is now about $45-$55 per barrel, depending on the play, Minter said, adding that she wouldn’t be surprised if some producers start to pump at $40 a barrel.

On Tuesday, U.S. crude futures rose 3.3% to settle at $44.04 a barrel, and Brent climbed 2.8% to $45.74.

If producers in Texas alone decided to complete all their 2,500 drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells at once, they could add 1.25 million barrels of oil per day to the world market, Minter estimated."

http://www.investors.com/news/get-re...on-the-market/

This means that if prices rise they will not rise by much.

[Azad]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

This means that if prices rise they will not rise by much.

Exactly! They (US oil and fracking) should keep the price in balance (keeping fingers crossed).

[Haykakan]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

This is the real reason why Azeris attack now. While demand for oil might or might not go up, it seems certain supply will increase for a long time given new discoveries and technological progress. This will render azerbadjan unimportant economically. I think Turkey and Israel will be the only countries interested in further working with this country. Looking into the future I suspect some big rearrangements of borders is in order in the region. I think the rearrangement of borders started a while back with Kosovo, Iraq,..it continues today and will keep continuing for the foreseeable future. I think our region will look radically different in 10 to 20 years compared to when the transitions started.

[Mher]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Nice Numbers, So unemployment would start to hit hard in the next couple of months, specially after this summer, and Inflation is high, boom They have stagflation. The gap between expectation and reality is getting bigger in azerbaijan.

"Rising expectations are the principal driving force for social development. However, the faster and higher aspirations rise, the greater the gap between expectations and reality. That gap promotes a sense of frustration, depravation and aggression leading to social unrest and violence."

" In economics, stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation, is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It raises a dilemma for economic policy, since actions designed to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment, and vice versa."

Very very strong point. Even if Azerbaijan has 30 billion in reserve like it claims to have, this is why it can't simply buy its way out of low oil prices.

This is the real reason why Azeris attack now. While demand for oil might or might not go up, it seems certain supply will increase for a long time given new discoveries and technological progress. This will render azerbadjan unimportant economically. I think Turkey and Israel will be the only countries interested in further working with this country. Looking into the future I suspect some big rearrangements of borders is in order in the region. I think the rearrangement of borders started a while back with Kosovo, Iraq,..it continues today and will keep continuing for the foreseeable future. I think our region will look radically different in 10 to 20 years compared to when the transitions started.

The other major aspect to consider here is that just in the past five years their production has declined by 20%. From 1,030,000 barrels per day five years ago to 830,000 barrels per day today. Every year it goes down four or five percent. And profitability of each barrel decreases the further you advance into a oil well's life because of increased cost of production. So in five years, even if prices somehow rebound back to hundred dollars a barrel, it wouldn't matter. their revenue would still be a fraction of what it was before.

[HyeSocialist]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Negative outlook!

https://m.moodys.com/research/Moodys-confirms-Azerbaijans-government-bond-rating-at-Ba1-assigns-negative--PR_346544

[Joseph]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

Experts say Armenia should pay more attention to Azerbaijani oil industry

15:04, 5 May, 2016

YEREVAN, MAY 5, ARMENPRESS. YSU lecturer, political scientist Aram
Terzyan says oil price decrease is directly connected to the
Azerbaijani aggressive behavior towards Armenia.

“The entire Azerbaijani economy is based on the oil and gas reserves.
Oil income has biggest shares in the Azerbaijani GDP. And when the oil
prices drop, Azerbaijan tries to divert public attention from its
internal problems by provocative actions against Armenia,” Terzyan
said.

“50 percent of the Azerbaijani GDP is comprised of oil and gas
industry, second is the service sector, followed by construction. Both
service and construction are strategically important for Azerbaijan,
because they create jobs, but essentially their being is connected
with oil and gas incomes. When incomes fall short, cuts happen in
those sectors. And now we see mass cuts in the construction sector”,
says Armen Manvelyan, senior researcher of the Institute of Oriental
Studies.

He said Azerbaijan is the kind of country where the acting political
system depends not as much on the population, but on the oil and gas
industry, as the main source of income.

“If oil prices remain low, it will mean Azerbaijan resuming its
aggressive actions. I think this should make Armenia be even more
attentive towards the Azerbaijani oil industry. This will directly
impact not only Aliyev’s regime, but also investments. Investment’s
won’t happen if people understand that the industry is endangered,” he
added.

[londontsi]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

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US pollster: Azerbaijani president’s popularity over 96%

http://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/society/2529518.html

Baku, Azerbaijan, May 5

Trend:

The popularity of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been boosted in the wake of renewed tension in the Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh and other territories occupied by Armenia. In an opinion survey conducted by respected American polling firm Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates, more than 96% of respondents said they "trust in the President of Azerbaijan," rating the job done by him as either excellent or good.

An equal amount of respondents said "the country's leadership protects Azerbaijan against Armenian aggressors" and judged the effectiveness of the Azerbaijani military response as either excellent or good.

"Azerbaijanis strongly support their President in the fight for the return of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding provinces," said George Birnbaum, Executive Director of Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates. "It remains a highly emotive issue that many observers and the media in the West fail to understand," he added. "Azerbaijanis want political and economic stability, they want to be kept safe from terror, but most importantly, they want their territory back."

Birnbaum noted that the level of patriotism among the Azerbaijani people has increased dramatically in the wake of renewed fighting in the region. "When asked what is the most important issue facing the country versus the most important issue facing their families, the number one response by an enormous margin for both was Nagorno-Karabakh," Birnbaum said.

However, interestingly, despite numerous resolutions calling for the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops, including from the United Nations, EU Parliament, OSCE and most recently the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, the majority of Azerbaijanis believe that the international community supports Armenia on this issue.

"Clearly, international law is on the side of Azerbaijan," Birnbaum said. "But given that no progress has been made by the mediators of the OSCE Minsk Group consisting of the U.S., Russia and France over more than two decades, Azerbaijanis seemingly have lost faith in the will of the international community to solve this crisis."

The long-simmering hostilities that escalated a month ago may have contributed to a pessimistic outlook by Azerbaijanis, with 70% saying that a full-scale war with Armenia will erupt within the next five years. A whopping 97% would be "willing to use all options, including using the military, in order to protect the country against Armenian occupation." Only a quarter of respondents believe there will be a genuine peace.

The survey was conducted among 1,200 voting-age citizens between April 23-29, 2016 in Azerbaijan and has a margin of error +/- 2.8%.

Arthur J. Finkelstein has previously conducted pre-election and exit polls for presidential and parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan.

[Vrej1915]

Re: Energy in Azerbaijan

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US pollster: Azerbaijani president’s popularity over 96%

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slight error there, it was in fact 196,96%...