Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

[Armenian]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Keep the Armenian-Turkish border 'closed' at all costs.

[Vako]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Please try to explain your point by giving examples or facts to convince us.
Just saying 'open' or 'close' will not help us understand the reasoning behind it. example: opening will help boost the economy
or
closing will help Armenian get better control of negotiations and political stance. etc.

Please don't forget to submit your vote above.

[garrgarr]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

"Opening the borders is conditioned by acceptance of the Genocide"

in my point of view, I believe that there are more conditions and issues to be solved between Armenia and Turkey along with the acceptance of the Genocide.

I remain undecided, however this option does not satisfy me as much as an option with closed borders would have.

[Armenian]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Keep the Armenian-Turkish border 'closed' at all costs.

And keep it closed under all circumstances and situations.

[Vako]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Armenian, please try to give a reason of your selection. How will it benefit Armenia, Armenians, what good will come out of it, etc.

thank you!

[Armenian]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Armenian, please try to give a reason of your selection. How will it benefit Armenia, Armenians, what good will come out of it, etc.

thank you!

You go first. Tell me, why do you think we need to open the borders?

[Vako]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Almost all of the replies below have the reasoning for opening or closing the border. It's a simple request and it's up to your descretion to 'educate' us about your point of view.
Note that there are no correct or incorrect answers, all opinions are welcomed.

[Armenian]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Almost all of the replies below have the reasoning for opening or closing the border. It's a simple request and it's up to your descretion to 'educate' us about your point of view.
Note that there are no correct or incorrect answers, all opinions are welcomed.

For beginners, let's start with this...

REPORT: NO BIG GAINS TO ARMENIA IF TURKEY LIFTS BLOCKADE

By Haroutiun Khachatrian: 8/09/05

A controversial report by an Armenian research and consulting group claims that reopening the Armenian-Turkish border would have a much smaller impact on Armenia’s economy than commonly believed.

The report was presented July 13 by the Armenian-European Political Legal Advice Center (AEPLAC), a prominent think tank sponsored by the European Union. It contended that Armenia would see its economy expand by only $20-23 million annually, or just 0.67 percent of its current Gross Domestic Product, if Turkey decided to lift its 12-year blockade of the Armenian border. Over the next five years, Armenia’s GDP would see an additional 2.7 percent increase over the country’s level in 2004.

The gain, the report maintained, would be almost exclusively the result of lower cargo transportation costs associated with the reopening of the Kars-Gyumri railroad that connects the two countries. Currently, Armenian goods can only reach trade partners via Georgia, which charges relatively high cargo tariffs. Transportation costs account for some 25-30 percent of Armenia’s trade costs, according to the report.

The report’s findings caught many Armenian academics and journalists by surprise. A widely cited 2000 World Bank study predicted that Armenia would see a 30-percent increase in GDP if both Turkey and Azerbaijan lifted their economic embargos. Since then, the Armenian economy has experienced impressive growth. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Many observers and economists believed that lifting the blockade would boost those numbers still higher.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in an act of solidarity with Azerbaijan. At the time, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces were battling for control of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The blockade cause substantial economic hardship in Armenia for much of the 1990s. In early 2004, Turkey reportedly considered re-opening the border, but eventually decided against it. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkish goods -- worth an estimated $40 million per year, according to the National Statistical Service of Armenia -- manage to enter Armenia via third countries. A general belief exists that if the border were re-opened, Armenia would be able to export a comparable amount of goods and services, namely electricity – to its western neighbor.

Many economists have challenged the report’s findings. They note that the analysis contained in the report, which was written by a seven-member team, largely concurs with recent statements made by various government officials, who have downplayed the need for an open Turkish-Armenian border. The daily Azg, for instance, commented on July 7 that the report’s argument provided strong support for Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian’s position that Armenia will not make any political concessions to Turkey in return for the lifting of the border blockade. “If the economic impact of lifting the blockade is negligible, then there is no reason to open the border,” said a recent editorial published by the Russian-language Delovoi Ekspress. “And this is pure politics.”

Others take issue with the report’s statistical analysis. Economist Eduard Agajanov, who served as minister of statistics under former President Levon Ter-Petrosian (1991-1998), charged that the report underestimated the economic impact of reopening the Turkish-Armenian border in order to provide political support for President Robert Kocharian’s administration. “Its purpose is to preserve the current oligarchic economic system in Armenia, which cannot survive if the borders are opened and competition with Turkish goods becomes tougher,” Agajanov said. If Armenia regains access to markets of the Middle East via Turkey, Agajanov argued, it would stimulate a whole range of industries that were active during the Soviet era, when the Middle East and India were major markets.

The AEPLAC authors said they took various factors into account, including the 2000 World Bank study and the potential re-entry of Armenian companies into Middle Eastern markets. Ultimately, however, they decided that Armenian producers do not presently have the resources to meet demand in Turkey and the Middle East for goods, such as electricity and cement. At the same time, the report suggested that reopening the Turkish-Armenian border might stimulate economic growth in eastern regions of Turkey, where GDP per capita is even lower than in Armenia.

Although the authors of the AEPLAC report state that it was commissioned by the Armenian government, Trade and Economic Development Minister Karen Chshmaritian has denied that the government had anything to do with the preparation of the document.

At a July 27 press conference, Chshmairtian criticized the AEPLAC estimates as too conservative. “They have not taken into account the effect of mutual penetration of capital from the two countries. Turkey obviously hinders its businessmen from investing in Armenia, and when this ban is eliminated, growth may be highly accelerated,” he stated. To prove the point, Chshmaritian told reporters, the government is conducting its own research into the economic impact of Turkey lifting its border blockade. A report is due out later this year, he said.

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.

Source: http://www.eurasianet.org/department...80905_pr.shtml

[Armenian]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

A prosperous Armenia is not within the long term interest of the Turkish nation - simply because we Armenians want lands and reparations. No self-respecting Turk is going to give away strategic lands to us Armenians. Trust me on that. Moreover, the Turks will not give us reparations because it would ruin their already small bank accounts. Moreover, giving us lands or reparations is a Pandora's box for them. Once they do it for us, it will be Assyrians, Kurds and Greeks, Cypriots lining up.

However, the biggest fear Armenian nationalists have is the massive economic and demographic size of Turkey. Theoretically, if the Republic of Armenia engages in open trade, and all is civil between us and the Turks, there is a great danger that the Republic of Armenia, as small and as isolated as it is, will become desperately dependent on Turkey for survival. This is the biggest long term fear that Armenia has with regards to open trade with Turkey.

I personally feel that we can not have official relations with Turkey as long as we have national demands. And, as far as I am concerned, the Armenian diaspora has demands and, as a matter of fact, the Armenian Republic has demands as well, although for diplomatic reasons they will not discuss it. Moreover, I really don't see any substantial benefit in having open borders with Turkey. Turkey produces cheap goods, nothing else. Armenia needs to concentrate on better relations with Iran, Russia and the EU. At least there we know that our existence is actually within their national interests.

The Turkish border is the longest, therefore, simplest, cheapest and quickest route for transporting goods. The Georgian border is short, risky, unstable and under-developed. The Iranian border is tiny and Iran has serious long-term geo-political problems. Under these circumstances, the worst thing that can happen to Armenia is to have open borders and normal relations with Turks. Economically Turks can overwhelm us within a very short period of time. And once your main source of income is placed within the hands of the enemy - kiss your vor, and your national interests, goodbye. I am surprised more Armenians have not been able to see the long term risks in all this. However, I suspect that many serious political organization within Armenia and the Diaspora, especially the ARF, do see the long term risks with having open borders with Turkey.

It is very troubling that we Armenians have simply forgotten that Turkey was ready to invade Armenia in 1993. This was in '1993' not in 1905 or 1918 or 1921. This was in modern times. You know, the modern 'civilized' Turk. Rest assured, power-brokers in Turkey hate us and they fear us they would love for us to simply disappear. If is was not for the South Caucasus command of the Russian Army, Yerevan today would have been an occupied Armenian city as well.

In short: Armenia today serves the geo-political interest of Iran and Russia and to a lesser extent the European Union. However, Armenia does not serve the long term interest of Turkey and obviously, Azerbaijan. And that is why we can't have any real close relations with Turks. Simply put, a prosperous Armenia is not in their long term interest. As far as Americans are concerned, they are there today, and gone tomorrow - when their 'interests' disappear. When it comes to Armenan issues, we obviously can't trust Washington DC.

We Armenians need to concentrate on building closer economic and political relations with Russians, Iranians, the EU and the Arab world. Let's hope the winds of war in Iran passes soon. Let's hope Georgia gets run-over by Russia. Let's hope the Turkish border remains closed. Armenian will do well looking north and south. As a matter of fact, much to the disappointment of Ankara and Washington DC, the Armenian economy has been doing relatively well despite the Turkic blockade.

[Vako]

Re: Gallup Poll: Open Border With Turkey and Armenia

Thanks for the excellent explanation Armenian!! it's logical and to the point.
I would like to see opposite views as detailed as yours, just to have a good balance on this topic.