The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

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Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

The continuing brilliance of Vladimir Putin and the direction he intends to take the Russian Federation in the 21 century. It's obvious that this man knows intimately well Western plans for Eurasia, Russia in particular, and the fundamental weaknesses that lead to the collapse of the Soviet Union. With its nuclear arsenal, abundance of natural resources, capable diplomatic corps, growing economy and a newly found Russo-centric political direction, Russia is strategically situated to control the most vital landmass on earth, Eurasia. A little glimpse into the minds of Western policy makers: It is said that some years ago former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright made a comment suggesting Russia had an over abundance of natural resources for a single country to own. To which Putin recently replied, "I know that some politicians play with such ideas in their heads," adding that such talk was "political erotica." Nonetheless, with its anti-missile defense proposal, NATO's eastward expansion, undermining of pro-Russian nations worldwide, and Western support for anti-government forces in the Russian Federation, attempts by the West to isolate, contain and/or undermine Russian sovereignty has been the West's primary goal in Eurasia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Without doubt, the next few years will be very interesting with regards to Russo-West relations and the Cold War-II. As it has been said before, the Russian Federation may yet prove to be a more formidable opponent for the West than was the Soviet Union:

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Putin Warns Energy-Dependent Russia of New Arms Race

Putin delivers final address to State Council as President: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsWaQ...&oe=UTF-8&hl=e

President Vladimir Putin warned that excessive economic dependence on energy could threaten Russia's existence, and said the country can't afford to get dragged into a new arms race. If Russia continues to rely on its natural resources to drive economic growth, it "won't be able to provide for the country's security or normal development,'' Putin said in a televised speech in Moscow today. ``We will threaten the very existence of the country.'' "A new phase of the arms race is unfolding'' in the world, Putin said, and Russia musn't allow itself to get dragged into a "spending confrontation'' on arms that would be "destructive'' for the economy and "detrimental to Russia's internal development.'' Putin, who took office in 2000, was addressing a meeting of Russia's State Council on his strategy for the development of the country until 2020. He leaves office in May after a March 2 presidential election in which he can't run, as the constitution bars him from serving more than two consecutive terms. Dmitry Medvedev, the man Putin says should succeed him, was in the audience, and television cameras frequently focused on him. Putin has regularly criticized the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics, and in particular U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile-defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland.

Base Closures

"We close down our bases in Cuba and Vietnam, and what do we get in return?'' he said. "New American bases in Romania and Bulgaria and a new missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.'' Putin has been invited to a meeting of NATO leaders in Bucharest in April. He hasn't said if he'll go. Russia must develop a new military strategy by 2020, Putin said. "We need an innovative army'' that is professional, technically advanced and will take the armed forces "to a completely new level.'' In one of his last major speeches as president, he highlighted the country's successes during his tenure, saying Russia's gross domestic product may double by the end of next year from when he took office in 2000. Oil and gas accounted for nearly 70 percent of Russia's exports to countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States last year, according to the Federal Customs Service. Russia must diversify away from energy and invest in education, medicine and "human capital'' during the next 12 years, Putin said. "Large-scale investment in human capital'' is an "absolute national priority,'' he said.

Innovative Growth

"The pace of innovative growth must be far greater than we've had to date,'' he said, adding that Russia needs investment in aviation and space, shipbuilding, roads, railways, ports, airports and housing. Putin started his address by reminding his audience of regional governors, lawmakers and billionaires including OAO Lukoil Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov and steelmaker OAO Severstal's Alexei Mordashov that "eight years ago, the situation in the country was extremely serious,'' noting that "terrorists were carrying out civil war on a large scale'' in the southern regions of Chechnya and Dagestan. When he came to power in 1998, the country was reeling from the effect of a default, the army was demoralized and agriculture was in ruins, he said. While life has improved in many areas, corruption remains a big problem, he said. "To this day it can take months to get anything done,'' Putin said. "You have to go into every office with a bribe -- the fire department, hospital orderlies, gynecologists, anyone you have to deal with. It's just a nightmare.''

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...A&refer=europe

Putin lashes out at West's "new arms race"

President Vladimir Putin said on Friday a new global arms race was starting and Russia was "forced to retaliate" with new, high-tech weapons. In a tough speech outlining his vision for Russia to 2020, Putin accused the West of ignoring Moscow's concerns on security by expanding the NATO military alliance to its borders and deploying a missile defence system in Central Europe. "It is already clear that a new arms race is unfolding in the world. It's not our fault, we didn't start it," Putin told government, business and military leaders at the Kremlin, three months before his presidency is due to end.

"In effect, we are forced to retaliate...Russia has and always will have a response to these new challenges," he added. Apparently referring to plans for new nuclear-capable missiles, Putin said "over the next few years Russia will start production of new types of weapons which...are in no way inferior to what other states have and in some cases are superior". Putin also said there was a "fierce fight" for natural resources around the globe and many conflicts and foreign policy actions "smell of oil and gas". Moscow needed to be on its guard against attempts to get access to its resources, he added.

"Under the disguise of turgid declarations about freedom and open society, sometimes the sovereignty of certain states and whole regions is being destroyed," Putin said, in an apparent reference to U.S. policy in the Middle East and in particular the war in Iraq. Speaking ahead of presidential elections next month which are widely expected to be won by his chosen successor Dmitry Medvedev, Putin attacked foreign countries for "immoral and illegal" attempts to interfere in Russia's domestic affairs. The West's main election watchdog, the ODIHR, said on Thursday it was scrapping plans to monitor Russia's presidential election because of restrictions by Moscow on the number of observers and the amount of time they could work.

Western countries have criticised democracy in Russia, saying the Kremlin's dominance over the airwaves and its liberal use of government resources to help official candidates make it impossible for the opposition to compete fairly. Putin said democracy was a "cornerstone" of Russian society. Although Putin's speech was billed in Russian media as a blueprint for Medvedev to follow, the president did not mention his successor by name in his 50 minutes of remarks or refer to the next government. There were few specific policy details. Putin has said he intends to stay active in politics and will become prime minister under Medvedev. But many analysts find improbable the scenario of an all-powerful, popular leader such as Putin voluntarily handing over the reins to a loyal subordinate and taking a lesser position himself.

Medvedev, sitting among cabinet members in the front row of seats in the Kremlin's St. George Hall, listened attentively as Putin hailed Russia's economic growth and stability during his eight years in power and called for fresh efforts to wean the economy off its dependence on exports of raw materials. He hailed the new-found strength of the Russian economy, pointing to a boom in investment, state coffers which are now full and gross domestic product growth of over 8 percent a year. But Putin also conceded that the economy was "still very ineffective" and criticised the lack of progress in turning Moscow's large scientific research programme into concrete technological advances.

Around 80 percent of Russia's exports are raw materials and imports are rising rapidly, threatening to tip the country's trade balance into the red within three years. "Russia should become a world leader in technology," Putin said. "...the pace of development in innovation must be dramatically higher than it is today". He proposed tax breaks for companies investing in employees' training and healthcare and said the government should help promote scientific research and innovation. Russia faces a major demographic crisis, with its population falling because of low birthrates and limited life expectancy. Putin said this had to change. "Today, every other man in Russia does not have the chance to live to be 60 years old. That is shameful...we must do everything to cut the mortality level in Russia", he said.

Source: http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp...c=Worldupdates

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U.S. Intelligence Uncovers ‘Russian Threat’

Moscow is charged with energy arm-twisting and computer espionage

U.S. Congress held annual hearings on security issues, based on the report by National Intelligence Director Michael McConnell. Along with al-Qaeda, Iraq, and Iran, U.S. intelligence officials listed Russia and China among the outer threats. Moscow and Beijing are charged with using their growing economic influence in the world for advancing their own political goals, and with cyber-terrorism. Kommersant’s special correspondent Dmitry Sidorov reports from Washington. U.S. Senate Select Committee On Intelligence held annual hearings on national security issues, attended by top intelligence officials, including National Intelligence Director, Admiral Michael McConnell; CIA Director, General Michael Hayden; FBI Director Robert Mueller; Defense Intelligence Agency Director, Major General Michael Maples; and Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research Randall Fort. McConnell was the main speaker, presenting his 45-page-long report on the situation in 15 countries.

This year’s hearings are notable for the unexpected unanimity displayed by intelligence chiefs when discussing McConnell’s report. Covert competition among different agencies of U.S. intelligence passed into a proverb long ago. It is no secret that CIA officers are reluctant to share information with their colleagues from the National Intelligence, and vice versa. Also, the FBI always disliked people “across the river” (the CIA), and the latter reciprocated. This time, however, intelligence chiefs seemed to have undergone drastic changes: they did their best to display readiness for constructive cooperation. So, CIA head Michael Hayden underlined the recently-appeared progress in special services’ cooperation, which did not prevent him from making a cautious reservation, though. He said that overcoming the in-house code of conduct “will take certain time”. Meanwhile, McConnell’s report was as surprising as the climate at the hearings. Although the part devoted to Russia was not as extensive as the parts about Iraq, Iran, and al-Qaeda, it was the most sensational one. It is for the first time that the leading U.S. intelligence service listed Russia among chief threats to U.S. national security.

However, it turned out the U.S. special services believe it is not the only threat coming from Russia now. The second threat is cyber-terrorism. “We assess that nations, including Russia and China, have the technical capabilities to target and disrupt elements of the US information infrastructure and for intelligence collection,” said McConnell. “The assessment is based on the analysis of Russia’s last-year cyber-attack on Estonia at the height of the Bronze Soldier conflict, and some other actions of Russian special services,” explained a source close to the U.S. intelligence. The source refrained from giving specific examples, though. Speaking of the political situation inside Russia and its possible scenarios, the U.S. intelligence chief estimated it the following way: “In March, Russia is set to reach […] the first on-schedule change in leadership since communism and the first voluntary transfer of power from one healthy Kremlin leader to another.” By the way, McConnell avoided using the word ‘election’ when describing the upcoming authority change in Russia.

Moreover, McConnell said the process is “clouded, however, by President Putin’s declared readiness to serve as prime minister under his hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, a move that raises questions about who will be in charge of Russia after Putin’s presidential term expires in May”. “The Medvedev-Putin ‘cohabitation’ raises questions about the country’s future and the implications for Western interests.” “While many of the essential features of the current system are likely to endure, including weak institutions, corruption, and growing authoritarianism, we will be alert for signs of systemic changes such as an indication that presidential powers are being weakened in favor of a stronger prime minister, McConnell summed up the political situation in Russia. The report focuses on analyzing the instruments of Russian diplomacy’s pressure for the nearest four years, including energy-trade and military capabilities. U.S. intelligence services see the threat to U.S. and its western partners’ national security in Moscow’s energy policy as well. “Aggressive Russian efforts to control, restrict or block the transit of hydrocarbons from the Caspian to the West—and to ensure that East-West energy corridors remain subject to Russian control—underscore the potential power and influence of Russia’s energy policy,” said McConnell.

The official also noted teething changes in the Russian army which is overcoming “a long, deep deterioration in its capabilities that started before the collapse of the Soviet Union”. At the same time, McConnell believes the Russian army has not yet reached “Soviet era operations”, and “still faces significant challenges”, such as “demographic, health problems, and conscription deferments”. “Strategic nuclear forces remain viable, but Russia’s defense industry suffers from overcapacity, loss of skilled and experienced personnel, lack of modern machine tools, rising material and labor costs, and dwindling component suppliers,” adds McConnell. While discussing Russia, senators also touched upon Moscow’s relations with Iran. Senator Evan Bayh wondered why Russians supply nuclear fuel for atomic power plants to Iran. “Russians are in talks with Iran, using the supplies of fuel for its peaceful nuclear program to show that Moscow is keeping everything under control,” replied McConnell. “Russians also explain to Iranians they can expect a lot if they agree to the international community’s offers,” he added. “I hope the matter is precisely so,” replied Bayh. In his turn, Christopher Bond, vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, evaded the question whether the U.S. regards Moscow’s military-equipment cooperation with Iran and Syria as a threat to its national security as well. “There is a whole range of threats,” said Bond evasively. “Each of them is quite serious, and I wouldn’t select any of them as the top one,” he said.

Meanwhile, a source close to the U.S. intelligence said the threats list includes a suspicion that Moscow-Tehran nuclear cooperation might be beyond the framework of current international agreements. Beside Russia, the Senate Committee also heatedly discussed Iraq, al-Qaeda, and special services’ methods applied against international terrorism, questioned not only by human rights defenders, but also by congressmen. Chief news was that U.S. intelligence top officials acknowledged facts of using the so-called water torture during the questioning of terrorism suspects. The torture makes a suspect feel as if they are drowning. When asked whether these prohibited methods were used, CIA Director Michael Hayden had to admit the practice indeed took place. However, he stressed that water torture was applied only to three high-ranking Al-Qaeda members, and not recently, but over five years ago.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p850125/r_...among_threats/

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US shield ‘encircles Russia’

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has blasted US plans for an anti-missile shield in Europe, using a Polish newspaper interview to accuse Washington of imperialism and seeking to encircle Russia. "Elements of the strategic anti-missile defence system already exist or are being set up in Alaska, California, in northeast Asia. When you look at a map, it becomes clear that everything is concentrated around our borders," Lavrov told Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland’s leading quality daily. "In the near future we’ll probably be talking about hundreds or even thousands of interceptor missiles in different parts of the globe, including Europe. Poland is just a test case," Lavrov said.

The United States is currently negotiating with Warsaw and Prague on the possible installation of 10 interceptor missile sites in Poland by 2012 and associated radar stations in the Czech Republic. Washington says the sites are needed as part of a gradually developing shield to ward off potential attacks by what it calls "rogue states," notably Iran. But Russia strongly opposes the plans and considers them a grave threat to its national security. "You’d have to be really naive to think that an American anti-missile base in Europe is directed against anywhere else than Russian territory. It’s unfortunately hard to find any other explanation for this than an imperialist concept," Lavrov said.

"Russia isn’t afraid of 10 interceptors. It’s this tendency to bring American infrastructure closer to our borders which constitutes the real threat," he said. Russia will not "remain indifferent to the increase of American strategic potential on its borders," he added. Lavrov’s comments came on the eve of a visit to Russia by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who since taking office in November has pledged to mend ties with Moscow. Russian-Polish relations were frosty under Tusk’s conservative-nationalist predecessor Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whose government gave gung-ho support to the US missile plan. Tusk’s administration has adopted a more cautious approach.

Amid concerns about the potential risks of hosting US missile interceptors, Warsaw has been pressing Washington to help upgrade the Polish armed forces, and notably to boost the country’s air-defence systems. Polish Defence Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in Washington last week that he had secured an agreement in principle for aid to modernise Polish air defences in return for Warsaw’s hosting the controversial US missile shield. But he added that "a great deal of work" remains, while his host, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, spoke of "some progress" and "some momentum" on missile defence.

Source: http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=701112

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Russia 'violates' Japan air space

Japan has lodged a formal protest accusing a Russian military aircraft allegedly violated its air space over the Pacific Ocean, according to a Japanese foreign ministry official. A Tupolev TU-95 bomber flew over the island of Sofugan, 650km south of Tokyo, for about three minutes from 7:30am (2230 GMT) on Friday, the defence ministry said. "We have asked the Russian government to make a thorough investigation into the matter," a Japanese foreign ministry spokesman said. Russia denied entering Japanese air space but said that four of the strategic bombers had carried out a routine 10-hour mission over the Pacific. The Japanese air force scrambled 24 planes, including F-15 fighters and an E-767 radar plane, to intercept the Russian aeroplane.

'Warnings ignored'

According to a defence ministry statement, air force personnel gave "a notice, then a warning and another a notice and a warning".

"There was no response."

The plane then flew back north towards the Russian island of Sakhalin. However, Alexander Drobyshevsky, a Russian air force spokesman, said: "All flights of the Russian air force were carried out in accordance with international air space regulations without breaching the other states' borders." The aircraft were accompanied by Japanese and US war planes, Russia said. The TU-95, Russia's longest serving bomber, is capable of carrying AS-15 "Kent" cruise missiles which can deliver a nuclear warhead. The air force did not say if the aircraft involved were carrying live weapons.

'Serious modernisation'

The Tupolev design bureau said last year it had begun a "serious modernisation" of the TU-95 strategic bomber. Russia last violated Japanese air space in January 2006, when a Russian plane flew over Rebun Island, off the coast of Hokkaido, an island in the north of the country. Japan and Russia have never signed a peace treaty to formally end the second world war due to a dispute over four islands off Japan's northern coast seized by Soviet troops in 1945. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, announced in August of the resumption of long-range flights in international air space which were abandoned in 1992 due to financial difficulties following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Last week, 14 long-range bombers flew over the north Atlantic in the latest of a series of military manoeuvres held off Europe's coastline since December, Russian media reported.

Source: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exer...9842D9A475.htm

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Putin’s Plank

Russia is to become the most fascinating and attractive country by 2020 Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke in the Kremlin on Friday, addressing the country’s top officials and numerous journalists (in person), and Russian TV audience (in live broadcast). Kommersant’s special correspondent Andrei Kolesnikov believes Putin in fact disclosed what he had allegedly had for a long time, but what no one had ever seen, -- the Putin plan. After the president’s address to the Federal Assembly in spring 2007, the Kremlin found itself in an awkward situation: Vladimir Putin said it was his last address. It turned out, however, he wanted to add something else. Eventually, the event was defined as an extended session of the State Council. I noticed that the Council was extended mainly by means of journalists. The Kremlin’s St. Andrew Hall hosted 87 mass media representatives (including editors-in-chief of some newspapers, who had so far demonstratively ignored such events, primarily because no one invited them). The Kremlin’s Malachite Parlor hosted 10 times more journalists – writing and electronic press who did the coverage.

Before the session, its participants were full of great expectations. The announced program of Russia’s development till 2020 excited their imagination. Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov said if everything mentioned by the president is fulfilled, it “will allow us to take the most independent stand in the world”. Meanwhile, no one really knew what the president’s speech was going to be about. Yet, the fever of anticipation of new victories, which require no action except listening to Putin’s speech, has already covered the audience in the Big Kremlin Palace. “Coming to the end of my second presidential term, I consider it necessary to say what has been done in the recent years,” said Putin, coming out to speak at 1 p.m. sharp [not because he wanted to point out his report’s unprecedented importance, but because the speech was broadcasted live by federal channels.—A.K.].

Putin mentioned his second term so briefly, as if his third one will begin even without our and his noticing it. Indeed, as I listened to him for 45 minutes, I clearly saw it was a speech by someone who was just going to start fulfilling his duties as the president of Russia. Putin analyzed not only his two presidential terms, but also the two terms of his predecessor. By the way, the analysis of Boris Yeltsin’s actions was getting more and more merciless. “The country suffered a financial crisis, citizens’ savings became depreciated. Terrorists unleashed a large-scale civil war, blatantly invaded Dagestan, and blew up houses in Russian towns… Rich Russia turned into a country of poor people…” said Putin. However, the Russian people “had neither despair, nor fear; on the contrary, the nation responded by rallying and standing together”. In the next eight years, the nation guided by its president did something not every nation can do. Russia stood up from its knees. Although, it hasn’t yet straightened its back, as far as I figured out from the president’s report.

“Last year, we reached the largest GDP growth in the last seven years, -- 8.1 percent. By the results of 2007, Russia is now ahead of such G8 countries as Italy and France. By its GDP size, Russia is now among the seven strongest economies of the world.” Putin said, however, it is about the GDP estimated according to parity purchase power. I’m sure, however, analysts would manage the task of estimating the GDP according to any index which would make Russia enter the top three, for instance, already by the session on Friday, if required to do so. Undoubtedly, Russia also has high chances to become the leader in, say, the corruption level per capita.

Anyway, no one noticed the GDP reservation. We were witnessing so stunning achievements and so large-scale prospects, that any reservations were forgiven without reserve. “Our children will not have to pay our old debts,” went on Putin, and I thought that some people in the audience sighed with great relief. The president, though, meant that Russia’s “state foreign debt reduced down to 3 percent of GDP, which is one of the lowest debts in the world”. “The population’s real incomes grew by 2.5 times in eight years. Pensions also increased by almost 2.5 times,” said Putin and raised his eyes off the speech text. “I’m well aware of the inflation… Price growth, etc. [indeed, what else can be said about the current price growth, except “etc”.—A.K.]… Yet, let me say it again, the real incomes grew by 2.5 times.”

Five minutes later, I almost believed we live in the country described by the Russian president in his report. I couldn’t even think of having to exit the Kremlin and go out there afterwards. Yet, here it turned out that whatever has been done is not enough, and that if everything keeps going the same way, the country will eventually find itself there where anyone concerned about Russia hopes never to see it again. As it turned out, we failed to escape the “inertial energy-resource scenario of development” and “the only realistic alternative to that scenario is a strategy for the country’s innovative development”. “However, I would like to point out,” went on the president in ultimatum tone, “and I would like everyone to understand it: innovative development rate should be radically higher than what we have now…”

From this moment on, the speech looked more and more like the report by Communist Party First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev, with its chief idea that the next generation of Soviet people would live already in communism. “Russia should become the most attractive country for living. I firmly believe we can achieve it without sacrificing the present for the so-called bright future [so, he too was aware of the Soviet analogies.—A.K.]. On the contrary, we can be improving the nation’s well-being day by day,” said the president. So, Putin’s ambitions are even higher than Khrushchev’s. In a while, everything became completely clear. By 2020, a Russian citizen is to have the best of what the mankind produces by that time. And the best of what the mankind makes is to be produced in Russia. Moreover, a Russian is to become the mankind’s best product. Apparently, that is the much-spoken-of Putin Plan. I do not know whether the report raised Russia’s investment attractiveness. At least, it raised my mood. “Nowadays, every second man in the country has no chances to live till the age of 60,” said the president. “What a shame! Moreover, there are less and less Russian citizens with each year! I think we should do our best to reduce death rate in Russia by over 1.5 times, and to increase average life expectancy in Russia up to 75 years by 2020.”

The audience responded by long-awaited applause. The applause was truly sincere. Hardly any of those present would not like to achieve these results in his/her own life. Putin also said what he thinks of the government’s work. As expected, nothing good. It was worth listening when the president went into details. Thus, hardly anything will remain of the government in its present state, both its structure and its management scheme: “Ministries should de facto control the resources entrusted to them, and independently issue the necessary legal enactments.” The president also spoke about the political system’s development, human rights, and civil freedoms. Anyway, Putin made so many reservations that it was hard to ignore them this time:

“No matter how tough the political debates are, how insoluble the inter-party contradictions are, they are never worth putting the country on the verge of chaos… Irresponsible demagogy, attempts at splitting the society and using foreign aid and interference during the inner political competition are not only immoral, but also illegal. They humiliate our nation’s dignity and weaken our democratic state… After all, Russia’s political system is to correspond to the national political culture and to develop together with it. Then it will be flexible and stable at the same time,” said Putin. The president went on to small business: “It is terrible what central federal agencies do in Russia’s regions and territories, with the support of territorial and local governing bodies. So far, it has been impossible to start one’s own business for months! One has to visit each agency to pay a bribe – to fireguards, to public health watchdogs… To gynecologists! A bribe for everyone! It’s terrible!” exclaimed the president.

In this report, small business was lucky to get so much attention: “A private company motivated to achieve success is often capable to manage better than an official who does not always have an idea of what is truly effective management, and what is an achievement.” Putin said it is necessary to reduce VAT and to make it one and the same. Deputy PM Alexei Kudrin later reminded it is 18 percent and 10 percent now. President’s Expert Department Director Arkady Dvorkovich said there are intensive consultations on the issue going on now, and that VAT single rate is going to be 12 or 13 percent. According to Putin’s report, we still have too many enemies in international politics. As far as I understood, there will be no less of them. There flashed an idea about a new round of arms race (as if copied from the Soviet speeches as well).

“They are assuring us that all those actions are not aimed against Russia. Yet, our partners are using it, unfortunately, just as… And I have to acknowledge it with pain in my heart…” Putin looked into the audience, and there was in his eyes the pain living in his heart, “… just as information-diplomatic cover for implementing their own plans… Russia has and will always have an adequate response to these new challenges…” Certainly, the response lies in producing new weapons. The president suggested discussing the concept with the society, in a very Soviet-style manner again, when Soviet leaders’ reports were followed by broad discussions. “Russia has not a single reason which would prevent us from achieving our goals. Not a single one!” summed up the president. Putin left the session hall quickly. He walked so rapidly as if in a hurry to implement the goals by 2020. Participants of the session went away at a slower speed. They had to walk through a crowd of journalists who were lucky that day: everyone there was obliged to talk to everyone.

“When they tell me that people should live till 75, I realize it is necessary that no one dies in our country,” Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov shared his thoughts following the report. “Wouldn’t you like to live forever? Or at least till 75?” I asked. “I want to, very much!” Zyuganov was honest. “Do you think it is possible with the current regime?” “With the current regime, it is impossible, even till 75,” declared the irreplaceable Communist leader. However, I have a slight suspicion he would be the leader eternally, if it were his regime. Another presidential candidate, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, was dissatisfied with Putin’s speech as well. “How long can we be uttering threats?! ‘Wait till we create new weapons, new missiles, adequate response…’ We need to make it clear for them! But how? Yastrzhembsky used to say: ‘From here we can strike a blow at Afghanistan. So, why doesn’t he strike! Enough of promises!”

Moreover, Zhirinovsky believes no one will be building the bright future on their own initiative, and thus it is necessary to force the state officials to do so: “It is necessary to arrest 10,000 officials and to restore death penalty.” Compared to these ideas, the value of Putin’s speech increased by many times. Meanwhile, the speech is unique because it can be regarded as political testament or as inauguration speech – and not Putin’s.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p851047/Pu...to_the_nation/

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NATO should cooperate with Russia - German defense minister

NATO should actively cooperate with Moscow, as no serious global problem could be resolved without Russia, the German defense minister said Saturday at a security conference in Munich. "We highly value the NATO-Russia Council as an important forum for dialogue on all topics of concern to us: missile defense, the Kosovo status, international terrorism, nuclear nonproliferation or the Iranian nuclear problem," Josef Jung told journalists. He said both sides should seek pragmatic solutions to current problems despite differences in positions. The 44th Munich conference is held in Munich annually. Presidents and prime ministers as well as influential politicians speak on global problems.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080209/98823074.html

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West need not fear resurgent Russia: Ivanov

The West need not fear Russia's growing economic and political clout, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said on Sunday in a conciliatory speech that called for a new global arms control regime. The warm tone was all the more striking because it came at the same Munich conference where President Vladimir Putin last year accused the United States of sparking a new arms race -- an attack he echoed in a speech in Moscow last Friday. But Ivanov is no longer seen as a contender to succeed Putin after a March 2 presidential election, and it was not clear whether the speech signalled a shift in Moscow's ties with the West or simply a pause in a period of escalating tension. "Getting richer, Russia will not pose a threat to the security of other countries. Yet our influence on global processes will continue to grow," Ivanov, speaking fluent English, told an audience including Pentagon chief Robert Gates.

Of Europe's dependence on Russia's huge oil and gas reserves, he said: "We are not masterminding any kind of energy expansion. We simply do our best to achieve maximum economic benefits in the existing economic situation." Ivanov noted revenues swelled by higher fuel prices had pushed Russian gold and currency reserves close to an unprecedented $500 billion and reaffirmed Moscow's determination to become one of the world's top five economies by 2020. He made only passing reference in his speech to a bitter row between Moscow and Washington over U.S. plans to set up a missile shield in eastern Europe, a move Russian officials in the past have attacked as targeting Russia.

"CHINESE MODEL"

Instead he urged the United States to help lead efforts with Russia to replace the SALT 1 arms control pact agreed during the Cold War with an international, legally binding regime. "As I see it, this is precisely an area of international relations where Russia and the United States not merely could, but are directly obliged, to show leadership," Ivanov said. "Today there are several nuclear powers in the world and even more countries with a strong missile capacity ... Sooner or later, we will have to start working in a multilateral format." Putin's preferred successor, the liberal Dmitry Medvedev, has not set out his foreign policy priorities yet ahead of March polls and it was not clear what status Ivanov's call had. The past year has seen a deepening chill in ties between Moscow and the West, marked by disputes over the U.S. missile shield and the Western-backed independence claim of Serbia's majority ethnic Albanian Kosovo province. Rights watchdog the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe announced last week it was withdrawing its Russian election observers, blaming restrictions imposed by the Kremlin.

After his speech, Ivanov was pressed by U.S. delegates about democratic deficits in Russia, one U.S. congresswoman accusing Moscow of having a one-party political system similar to China. "We don't have a Chinese model. We have a multi-party system," Ivanov replied coldly. "As for the presidential elections, we have four candidates, not two like in some countries," he added, with a smile to his U.S. questioners, in apparent reference to the likelihood of a two-horse race in this year's U.S. presidential campaign. Medvedev has enjoyed full Kremlin backing and wide coverage on state television. A poll last week showed him leading his nearest challenger, nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, by 56 percentage points.

Source: http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/int...47220000&ty=ti

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia, Military: An Attempt at Stealth

Summary

Russian President Vladimir Putin “some time ago” authorized aircraft manufacturer Sukhoi to pursue a new stealth bomber design, according to a Jan. 23 AvioNews report citing sources close to the Kremlin. Unfortunately for Russia, it just is not that simple.

Analysis

Russian aircraft designer and manufacturer Sukhoi received authorization from Russian President Vladimir Putin “some time ago” to pursue a new stealth bomber design, AvioNews reported Jan. 23. Citing sources close to the Kremlin, the report suggests the new design has a variable-geometry wing configuration and is called the T-60S. While this development is certainly noteworthy, Russia has several challenges to meet in pursuit of stealth technology.

The Soviet Perspective

The Soviets never believed in stealth. Moscow always worked from a position of quantitative superiority, a geopolitical reality that shaped its weapons development. Thus, the Kremlin has never shared the Pentagon’s faith in small numbers of complex, advanced systems — systems informed by the West’s quantitative disadvantage in central Europe during the Cold War. Russia also has strong geopolitical ties to air defense, and this inclination has led to the belief that improvements in radar technology would consistently outpace improvements in stealth technology, leaving the very expensive and resource-intensive pursuit of stealth not only unattractive but apparently wasteful.

It was only as the Soviet Union was collapsing that the world witnessed the possibilities of stealth: U.S. Air Force (USAF) F-117A Nighthawks successfully penetrated the second most heavily defended airspace in the world — the skies above Baghdad— without suffering a single loss. (The most heavily defended airspace was over Moscow.) Of no small significance was the fact that both Baghdad and Moscow’s airspaces were heavily defended by Russian-designed and -built air-defense equipment.
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Since the Soviet collapse, Russia has carefully observed the technological pre-eminence of the U.S. military. While far more fundamental issues continue to trouble the Russian military, the Kremlin has leveraged the height of late Soviet defense technology as a stepping stone to get back on its feet. Though almost painfully slow at times, Russia has begun to field updated variants of those designs — everything from the BMD-4 airborne infantry fighting vehicle to the Su-34 “Fullback” fighter-bomber. Fundamentally new designs have yet to mature fully, much less prove themselves. But Russia’s progress toward new, modern weapon systems is already under way. This includes Mikoyan’s (MiG’s) work on the Skat unmanned combat aerial vehicle.

The Challenges of Stealth

But the degree of success in these pursuits is another question entirely. Nuclear submarine propulsion — an endeavor where quality workmanship is especially crucial — took the Soviets far longer to master than it did the United States. Only with the late Akula attack sub did they really begin to demonstrate the quality necessary even to attempt to close the acoustic signature gap with U.S. subs.

Stealth is the same way. Imprecision in design and production alike can severely undermine the acoustic signature of a submarine or the radar cross-section (RCS) of an airframe. Early B-2s especially required delicate care and maintenance (something in which the Russians have decidedly not made a name for themselves) to maximize their stealth characteristics. The latest F-22 Raptor stealth fighters now represent the third generation of U.S. stealth design. Billions upon billions of dollars have gone into these designs dating back to the 1960s and the SR-71 Blackbird; stealth has benefited from nearly half a century of concerted effort by the Pentagon.

This is not a developmental trajectory Russia can just sidestep into. The Kremlin did reportedly obtain the wreckage of the USAF F-117 downed over Kosovo in 1999. (While the Serbian SA-3 battery commander who shot it down certainly deserves credit for his skills, the F-117s flying out of Aviano, Italy, were also following the same transit route for the fourth night in a row, making their flight path extremely predictable). But while there are certainly lessons to be learned from such tangible evidence, the F-117 was ultimately a primitive design. Simple maneuvers reportedly could increase its RCS dramatically, if momentarily. Its unconventional design also was tricky to fly.

Russia’s Pursuit of Stealth

Nevertheless, in addition to design work on the T-60S, concurrent development is already under way at Sukhoi on the Advanced Tactical Frontline Fighter (abbreviated from the Russian to PAK FA), in cooperation with India. Combined with the stealth characteristics apparent in MiG’s Skat mock-up, the Kremlin has clearly had a change of heart about stealth. But while the Russians understand a great deal about the science of radar, two aspects of this development are still emerging. First, there is the question of priority. Though Putin’s Russia is a Russia no longer categorically short of money, funds are still limited. The Russian military has massive problems to confront, and it is not yet clear that the Kremlin is willing to (or ought to) devote anywhere near the amount of resources necessary to develop and produce a truly stealth anything. (Meanwhile, Russia’s navy could yet see its best chances at revival through smaller, more realistic and obtainable designs.) Understanding of the science of radar and gleaning clues from well-publicized successful U.S. designs hardly translate into the ability to design and manufacture stealth platforms.

DIAGRAM - Russian Stealth Sukhoi T-60S

Second is the apparent intention to incorporate variable-geometry wings into the T-60S design. Variable-geometry wings were a feature favored heavily by the Tupolev design bureau in the late Soviet years. They found their way back into the production designs of both the Tu-22M “Backfire” and the Tu-160 “Blackjack”. Although their use is now well understood by Russian engineers, the juncture of the wing with the fixed root in the fuselage could prove a particularly challenging surface for reducing RCS.

While the PAK FA and Skat appear to mimic widely publicized U.S. designs more closely, their ultimate degree of success as stealth platforms remains an open question. But while very serious challenges will confront Russia in its pursuit of stealth, perhaps the takeaway point is that the Kremlin is now concurrently beginning to field — if very slowly — new late fourth-generation airframes while looking forward at least a decade. Whether or not the Russians can adequately balance these dual objectives, the Russian air force now appears not only to be revitalizing its equipment, but also moving to sustain that revitalization into the future.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/rus...ttempt_stealth

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Air Force keeps eye on Russia, China

A new strategic plan for the service warns against 'ascendant powers' even as many within the military urge a focus on unconventional threats like terrorism and insurgencies.

The Air Force's top officer on Thursday presented a new strategic plan for the service that warns the U.S. cannot ignore "ascendant powers" seeking to challenge American military superiority as it fights low-intensity wars elsewhere. In his new plan, Gen. T. Michael Moseley, the Air Force chief of staff, did not name specific countries as potential challengers. But at a formal presentation, Moseley singled out military spending in Russia and China, noting both are rising at a rapid clip. Air Force officials said the new strategic plan, an 11-page "white paper," was the first since the early 1990s. It was presented at the Air University, the Air Force's premier war college. "Ascendant powers -- flush with new wealth and hungry for resources and status -- are posturing to contest U.S. superiority," the plan states. "These adaptive competitors are translating lessons from recent conflicts into new war-fighting concepts and doctrines specifically designed to counter U.S. strengths and exploit vulnerabilities."

In an interview, Moseley insisted he did not intend the new paper as an argument for shifting resources toward more conventional weapons systems, such as more F-22 fighters, that could be used against nation-state adversaries. He said the plan also cites a wide range of unconventional threats facing the U.S. in the future, pointing to a list that highlights both violent extremism and the rise of terrorist and criminal organizations as key challenges. "I think you have to deal with all of the above," Moseley said. "I think you have to be prepared to offer the president in our world sovereign options across a full spectrum, from humanitarian assistance all the way out to nuclear deterrence."

At the same time, Moseley argued in his Air University speech that some U.S. officials have ignored the importance of securing the skies, lulled into a false sense of security because recent conflicts have not involved air-to-air combat. "It is an interesting assumption in the world of Washington right now that the dominating piece of the air domain, air superiority, is somehow a given, is somehow a birthright," Moseley told the crowd of more than 1,200 military personnel, most of them Air Force officers. The new strategic plan, released at the midpoint of Moseley's four-year term as Air Force chief of staff, comes as the entire U.S. military engages in an increasingly intense internal debate over how it should be structured when the war in Iraq comes to an end.

Several senior officials, including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, have argued that the U.S. is likely to fight similar guerrilla-type enemies in the future and should weight its new organizations and funding toward irregular warfare and counterinsurgency priorities. At the same time, other officials, concerned about the rise of China and the renewed militancy of Russia under President Vladimir V. Putin, have warned against investing and training too heavily in low-grade warfare skills, concerned that more traditional war capabilities are eroding. In the interview, Moseley said he believes the Pentagon should continue focusing on counterinsurgency missions. But he said the military cannot afford to ignore other, more conventional contingencies.

"I believe the probability of having to fight nation-state to nation-state is low, [but] I think there's 100% probability we will have to fight their equipment," he said, noting that many of the sophisticated air defense systems and fighter planes being produced by China and Russia are being bought by militaries throughout the world. The strategic plan is even more explicit. It argues that an overemphasis on planning for wars like current conflicts could open up the U.S. military to an unwanted surprise. "We should not assume that future conflicts will resemble the current fight in Iraq or Afghanistan -- lest we lose the ability to project global power [and] deter nation-states," the paper says.

Source: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,4484383.story

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russian Air Force to have new test site in North Caucasus

Russia will build a new Air Force training ground in the North Caucasus, set to be the country's largest, the Defense Ministry said on Monday. The site will be built near the Black Sea port of Taganrog for the North Caucasus Air Force and Air Defense Army. The facility will have state-of-the-art equipment to provide combat support to all types of aviation and antiaircraft systems, and will also be used to train Emergency Situations and Interior Ministry air forces. A Russian Air Force spokesman contacted by RIA Novosti declined to specify when the site will be opened.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080211/98904967.html