The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Moscow expects Georgia to draw conclusions - Lavrov

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=12642301&PageNum=0

MOSCOW, May 3 (Itar-Tass) - Moscow expects Georgia and those who pull it to NATO to draw conclusions as a result of the steps Russia took in the region recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday. He returned from London where international meetings took place on Friday to discuss Middle East and Iran issues. Lavrov said the situation in Georgia was actively discussed with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"I explained that the increase of the number of our peacekeepers in Abkhazia was nothing more than filling of the existing quota," he noted.

This is done since the statements from the Georgian side and the actions that take place arouse at least fears of some provocations. To prevent such provocations and to send a signal that there must not be any, the decision was taken to have the full format of the peacekeeping forces that are to ensure peace and stability and prevent resumption of bloodshed in the region, Lavrov said.

The minister reminded that Moscow at the meeting with the European "Group of Three" in Luxembourg presented documents informing about the real situation in Georgia and also handed over documents to the British side and the United States. Americans assured they continued to work with Tbilisi to make sure that there are no intentions to take any drastic steps that could aggravate the situation, Lavrov said. "We welcome it," he added.

"We ourselves call on Tbilisi for returning the situation into the framework of the negotiating mechanism," he noted.

Three years ago, an agreement was signed on withdrawal of Russian military bases from Georgia's territory. Within it, a package agreement was reached that Georgia pledged not to have foreign bases in its territory, and an agreement was also concluded to set up a Russian-Georgian antiterrorist centre.

Russia's part of the package was fulfilled ahead of schedule. The bases were withdrawn eight months before the planned time. The Georgian side, despite repeated remindings, just ignored its part of the agreement. There is no law that there will be no foreign military bases in Georgia, and no such law is expected, as it is not expected either that a joint antiterrorist centre to consolidate cooperation will be set up, the minister noted.

The lack of agreeability on these and other issues is linked largely, or maybe only, with the plans to draw Georgia into NATO, Lavrov believes. " I talked about it with Condoleezza Rice, and I hope our actions are understood right and conclusions will be drawn in Tbilisi and also in the capitals that are pulling Georgia into NATO," he said.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

By that do you mean that western and turkish influence would greatly lessen in the Cauacasus and therefore Armenia & Russia would have a freeier hand in the region?

Turkish and NATO influence in the region would naturally diminish with a weaker Georgia. Within Russia's sphere, Georgia would have no choice but to have better relations with Armenia.

Hopefully it would lead to breaking up Georgia which would be excellent for Armenia.

If Georgia physically breaks apart under outside pressure (a very slight possibility for such an occurrence) Yerevan can theoretically make a move regarding Javakhq. Will Yerevan attempt it, however, is another story. Such a situation would create very unpredictable, thus dangerous, consequences internationally. Don't forget NATO/Turkey is right next door. And Russia simply needs us for the foreseeable future, however, they are not interested in a greater Armenia. I personally don't think Moscow wants to break apart Georgia any further than they already have, they are simply looking to bring Tbilisi to their knees.

That but also, I think given that for now, the Armenian state is the only friendly and reliable entity for Russia within the region in question, that increases automatically the strategic importance and value of Armenia for Russkis...

Yes, but an argument could be made that with Georgia in the Russian camp Armenia's important role in Moscow would lessen. Geopolitically and economically speaking, Russia would have more benefits in dealing with Georgia than with Armenia. Similarly, Russia would have more benefits in dealing with Azerbaijan than with Armenia. Again let me remind you that Armenia is a tiny, impoverished, landlocked nation without natural resources. Thus, in its current state, Armenia is worthless on the world stage. The reason why Russia is closer to Armenia is simply because Georgia and Azerbaijan are not interested in an alliance against the West with Russia. Armenia is walking a very fine line in the region. I see Russia being a crucially important 'natural' ally for Armenia for the foreseeable future. However, from time to time, national interests/political calculations of nations change. And when these changes occur they can impact Armenia directly and indirectly, sometimes positively and sometimes negatively.

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenia for the foreseeable future. However, from time to time, national interests/political calculations of nations change. And when these changes occur they can impact Armenia directly and indirectly, sometimes positively and sometimes negatively.

And this is why we should work to make Armenia as strong as possible, in economic, social and defensive terms. We can only count on ourselves to ensure our nation survives and grows, no other nation will look out for our self interests, it's a global game and we must get very good at it very quickly.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

A new Russian missile base in Armenia? Apparently, this information is being circulated in Georgia and Azerbaijan. Has anyone else here seen or heard anything about this?

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Russia new missile base response to US

Russia begins the construction of a new missile base in the Southern Caucus region amid a row with the US over its missile shield. Citing informed Georgian sources, the Azeri newspaper Ayna reported that Russia has started the construction work near the Armenian city of Noyemberyan. The report added the base is located in a place overlooking Sadighlu village near the Georgian town of Marneuli and it would reportedly be equipped with advanced air defense and missile systems. The move by Moscow is considered as a response to Washington's plans for stationing the components of a missile defense shield system in Eastern Europe. Russia says the US plan poses a threat to its national security and it has vowed to take retaliatory measures against the United States if Washington goes ahead with the project.

Source: http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...onid=351020602

In other news:

Armenian oil refinery project to cost USD 2 billion

The construction of a new oil refinery in Armenia will cost USD 2 billion, according to Armenian Energy Minister Armen Movsesyan. The refinery, which will be built in Megri, on the Iranian border, will process 7.5 million tons of oil annually, the news agency Regnum reports. The project is being jointly undertaken by Armenia, Iran and Russia and will process Iranian oil.

Source: http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/1..._econ_one.html

[Armanen]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

I haven't heard anything about it, but until Armenian or Russian sources say it's true I'm not going to put much faith in it.

[crusader1492]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Azerbaijan going to send gunmen for Georgia’s war against Abkhazia? 05.05.2008 15:15 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Azerbaijan intends “to assist Georgia in resolving its territorial problems.”

For the purpose, Baku-Kabul flights suspended in March 2008 will be resumed. Trained Afghan mujahids and large lots of weapons are expected to be airlifted to Azerbaijan and then to Georgia, Real Azerbaijan website reports.

According to preliminary data, some 500 Afghan commandos trained in British camps will arrive in Georgia. In operation against Abkhazia and South Ossetia, they will use weapons received from their British sponsors, thus protecting Azerbaijan from “coming into the spotlight.”

Reliable sources report that Azeris are being recruited in Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine and several other states with numerous Azeri diaspora.

The recruitment is conducted under supervision of "Azerbaycan Diasporasi" chairman Fikret Veliyev, chairman of Murmansk division of the All-Russian Azerbaijani Congress Rafik Badirov, president of federal national and cultural autonomy of Azeris of Russia Sayun Sadykov. Not only ordinary Azeris but also students of Moscow and Kyiv universities are recruited.

Head of the department of political studies of the Azerbaijani presidential administration Fuad Akhundov and chief of the division of foreign policy planning and strategic studies at the Azeri MFA Tofik Musayev have been commissioned to coordinate the Azeri diaspora’s work.

1.5-2 thousand prisoners, who committed grave crimes, will be granted amnesty on occasion of Heydar Aliyev’s 85th birthday. It’s expected that half of them will be sent to Georgia as well.

The process of Azeri units’ formation was speeded up after Russian heavy artillery, weapons and equipment and additional troops crossed Georgia’s state border.

The tactic of sending mujahadin to fight along side "state" forces was tried by Azerbaijan against Artsakh and it failed miserabley.

If this report is true, Georgia has sunk to a new low in hiring jihadits to fight their war.

[Azad]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

This is one of the reasons that this puppet entity Georgia has to be dismantled.

"Monday, May 5, 2008

ROAD CONSTRUCTION PROVING TRICKY FOR GEORGIA’S MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE
Molly Corso 5/02/08

Two years into the US government-funded Millennium Challenge Georgia program, observers are concerned that major delays and cost adjustments could prevent the development program from achieving one of its most ambitious goals.

A $102.2 million road repair project that will upgrade 300 kilometers of highway running between Tbilisi and Georgia’s borders with Turkey and Armenia is the crown xxxel of the Millennium Challenge Georgia (MCG) campaign. Construction on the project, which represents 35 percent of the MCG’s overall $295.3 million budget, was slated to begin a year ago. But under the latest construction timetable, work won’t get underway until later this spring at the earliest.

The first tender for a road repair company to do the work was cancelled last April. Ashtrom International, an Israeli construction company, won a second tender held last October. It intends to begin work either later in May or in June, and has set a new project completion date for the fall of 2011.

In an April interview with EurasiaNet, Lia Mamniashvili, MCG’s then acting chief executive officer, cited the cancelled tender as the main reason for the delay. The time needed to work out complex engineering designs for roadwork in the affected Samtskhe-Javakheti region – one of Georgia’s most remote areas – also played a role, she noted....."

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav050208b.shtml

I am very curious to know which company lost the first tender and why.

[Angessa]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

There is going to be a war there no way around it now just depends but how much support will U.S and Nato give.

[skhara]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

There is going to be a war there no way around it now just depends but how much support will U.S and Nato give.

I don't think Georgians are going to go for it.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

There has been a lot of activity. All indicators suggest that Moscow has finally begun its long expected move into the Caucasus. The question now remains is what will NATO, USA and Turkey specifically, do as a reaction. In my opinion, other than political posturing, there is not much that they can do at this point. This is an ideal time for Moscow to implement its regional agenda. With US and NATO troops bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and with several other tinder boxes across the world that can draw western involvement at any moment this is a good time for Moscow to make its move.

Armenian

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Abkhazia says it downed two Georgian surveillance drones

'Georgian army set to invade Abkhazia': http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6SGp0H34DY

Abkhazians welcome Russian peacekeepers: http://en.rian.ru/video/20080505/106618535.html

Russian peacekeepers greeted with flowers: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1PGq5TTMHs&feature=user

Russian-Georgian War In Abkhazia (Georgian documentary about the war in the 90s when Tbilisi lost control over Abkhazia. The Armenian "Bagramyan Battalion" is also referred upon): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P391m...eature=related

Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia shot down over its territory on Sunday two Georgian surveillance drones, an Abkhaz presidential envoy told RIA Novosti. "The planes were flying at an altitude of 7,000 meters [23,000 feet] and were downed by our air defense system," Ruslan Kishmariya said. Abkhazia's defense minister, Merab Kishmariya, confirmed that two planes had been shot down. He previously said that only one drone had been downed. "Considering the altitude of the aircraft, their fragments will be scattered within a radius of between eight and 12 kilometers [5-7 miles]," the presidential envoy said, adding that a group of experts was already working at the crash site of the first drone and a search was underway for the crash site of the second. The Georgian Foreign Ministry called Abkhazia's claims "absurd," and said they were aimed at escalating tensions in the region. The breakaway republic also claimed on Sunday that Georgia had deployed almost 7,500 troops on its border with Abkhazia. The breakaway republic's defense minister said the troops were on a state of alert, adding that Abkhazia had also put its troops on standby. Sergei Shamba, the foreign minister of Abkhazia, said the troops in the republic were put on an alert on order from President Sergei Bagapsh, but it did not mean that the unrecognized republic was preparing for a war. "Putting army on high alert is just a first stage, but it does not mean that we [Abkhazia] have begun full-scale preparations for a war," Shamba said. Russia's Foreign Ministry said in a statement later on Sunday that Georgia will be responsible for raising tensions in the conflict-stricken region as it again sent in its surveillance drones to Abkhazia. "By resorting to the adventurism of sending in surveillance drones and stepping up military preparations in the conflict zones, Tbilisi has knowingly embarked upon the path of raising tensions in the region," the ministry said. "The responsibility for the consequences of such a course lies with Georgia."

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080504/106528771.html

Georgia pulls out of air defense treaty with Russia

Georgia has formally notified Russia that it is withdrawing from a bilateral air defense cooperation treaty, a Georgian Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Monday. The treaty was signed between the two countries' defense ministries on April 19, 1995. Tbilisi's move comes after two Georgian reconnaissance planes were allegedly shot down over the unrecognized republic of Abkhazia's airspace on Sunday. Irakli Torondzhadze, director of the Foreign Ministry Russia Department, handed Andrei Smag, Russia's envoy to Georgia, official notice. A Georgian deputy defense minister said his country had seen no practical benefit from the treaty with Russia. "Georgia has long stopped participating in any defense or military-technical cooperation programs within the CIS," Batu Kutelia said, adding he hoped the Russian side would treat the announcement "with understanding." Russia's Embassy in Tbilisi confirmed that it had received formal notice from Georgia. Embassy press attache Alexander Savinov said the note "has been transferred to Moscow via official channels," but that "no instructions have been received from Moscow yet." Asked whether the note had set out the reasons for Georgia's decision to withdraw from the agreement, he said: "At this stage we are not in a position to comment." The CIS unified air defense system includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. Georgia previously withdrew from the CIS Defense Ministers Council although it formally remained in the CIS unified air defense system.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080505/106633895.html

Abkhazia says some 7,500 Georgian troops amassed in border area

Georgia has deployed almost 7,500 troops on its border with Abkhazia, the defense minister of the breakaway republic said on Sunday. Merab Kishmaria said should a military operation begin, some 3,000 troops will apparently be used to seize the Kodori Gorge, in the northeast of Abkhazia. "We are watching the movement of troops in the Kodori Gorge. According to our intelligence, up to 7,500 Georgian troops on the Georgian-Abkhaz border are on alert, with 3,000 of them to be used in attempting to take the Kodori Gorge," he said. He added that the Abkhaz armed forces had also been put on combat alert and that there would be enough forces and military equipment to repulse any "Georgian aggression." Georgia's Foreign Ministry has responded with a sense of humor to recent Russian media reports concerning an imminent Georgian military operation in Abkhazia. "The Georgian leadership advises the anonymous representatives of the Russian security agencies...to take a few drops of valerian. However, Georgian doctors believe that valerian will not be potent enough...and they would be better off taking Valium," Georgia's acting foreign minister, Grigol Vashadze, was quoted as saying by a ministry spokesman. A Russian federal security source said on Saturday that Georgia, "with the participation of foreign experts," had prepared a plan for "armed action" against Abkhazia, which would be carried out within the next few days. He said the plan envisions "the seizure of vital installations in Abkhazia's coastal area," adding that "a number of foreign embassies in Georgia" were preparing to evacuate their staff from Tbilisi. Abkhazia, alongside another Georgian breakaway republic, South Ossetia, broke away from Georgia in the early 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Between 10,000 and 30,000 people were killed in the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict and some 3,000 in Georgian-South Ossetian hostilities. Georgia is looking to regain control over the two de facto independent republics.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080504/106491478.html

Abkhazian Minister Gives Russia Control

Abkhazia is prepared to let Russian take it under military control in exchange for a guarantee of security, the unrecognized republic's foreign minister, Sergey Shamba, stated in an interview published Tuesday in Izvestia newspaper. “We are proposing the very broadest military cooperation with Russia,” Shamba said. “Those 200 kilometers, the distance between the Psoi and Inguri Rivers, is all of Abkhazia. We agree to Russia's taking the territory under military control. But in exchange we demand a guarantee of our security.” Shamba considers Russia's recent initiatives in regard to Abkhazia “the beginning of the establishment of interstate relations between our countries.” Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to develop measures to provide aid to the population of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and to cooperate with the de facto authorities of the unrecognized republics. Prior to that, Russia declared that it was withdrawing from the CIS agreement on sanctions against Abkhazia. Shamba said that Abkhazia does not intend to become part of Russia. “There is no need for that yet,” he said. After the collapse of the USSR, Abkhazia, which was part of the Georgian SSR, declared its independence. In August 1992, Georgia sent troops into Abkhazia, where they were met with armed resistance. As a result, Georgia lost control over Abkhazia in an armed conflict that lasted until August 30, 1993. Abkhazia has been seeking recognition of its independence since then, but has yet to be recognized by any country. Georgia is offering it broad autonomy within that country. Peace is maintained in the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone by the CIS Collective for the Support of Peace, which is made up of Russian soldiers. Negotiations on a settlement of the conflict broke off in 2006.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-12467/r_...en_conflicts_/

Possible outcomes of a Georgian-Abkhazian war

Analysts are actively debating the possible outcomes of an armed conflict between Georgia and self-proclaimed Abkhazia that seceded from Georgia in 1992. Without looking into the most pessimistic scenarios envisioning a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO, let's try and predict the possible outcomes of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. In late 2007, the Georgian Armed Forces had about 33,000 officers and men, including a 22,000-strong army that comprised five brigades and eight detached battalions.

These units had over 200 tanks, including 40 T-55 and 165 T-72 main battle tanks that are currently being overhauled. The Georgian Army also had 180 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, as well as 20 other armored vehicles, 120 artillery pieces with a caliber of 122-152 mm, 40 multiple-launch rocket systems and 180 mortars, including 60 120-mm mortars and 120 mortars with an 82-mm caliber. Although the Georgian Air Force has 10 to 12 Su-25 Frogfoot ground-attack jets, only 4-5 of them are operational. It also has 15 Czech-made L-29 and L-39 combat trainers that can be converted into light-weight attack planes and 30 helicopters, including 8 Mi-24 Hind helicopter gunships. The Georgian Navy has 10 motor boats of different types, including two guided-missile boats. One of them is similar to the French-made Le Combatant and carries four Exocet anti-ship missiles. And the Soviet-made Project 206-MR boat has two P-15M missiles. However, their combat readiness is in doubt.

The Georgian military faces a 10,000-strong Abkhazian Self Defense Force wielding 60 tanks, including 40 T-72s, and 85 artillery pieces and mortars, including several dozen with a 122-152-mm caliber and 116 armored vehicles of different types. The Abkhazian Army also has numerous anti-tank weapons ranging from RPG-7 rocket launchers to Konkurs-M anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). Additionally, the break-away republic has one or two Su-24 Fencer tactical bombers, one MiG-23 fighter, five combat-ready Su-25 ground-attack jets, 3-4 L-39 combat trainers and 3-4 helicopters. Although some sources allege that Abkhazia has 1-2 Su-27 Flanker fighters, this seems unlikely. The Abkhazian Navy has over 20 motor boats armed with machine-guns and small-caliber cannons. The experience of the 1992-1993 Georgian-Abkhazian conflict shows that even small units can resist superior enemy forces in mountainous areas for a long time. Consequently, the outcome of any hypothetical conflict would depend on the aggressors' level of military training and the influence of third parties, primarily Russian units from the Collective CIS Peacekeeping Force.

Analysts have long noted the inadequate combat readiness of Georgia's Armed Forces. Although the United States has trained several crack Georgian units in the last few years, the fighting effectiveness of all other elements is uncertain. According to American instructors who helped train Georgian units, the country's officer corps is riddled with corruption. There are no trained sergeants, and troop morale is running low. Only about 50% of the military equipment is operational, and coordinated operations in adverse conditions are impossible. The Abkhazian Armed Forces pack a more devastating punch because they would resist an aggressor that has already tried to deprive the republic of its independence. Abkhazian units are commanded by officers trained at Russian military schools. Many of them fought in the early 1990s. Analysts agree that the combat-ready Abkhazian Army does not suffer from corruption. Moscow has recently beefed up the local peace-keeping contingent. Neighboring Caucasian nations, including North Ossetia, are siding with Abkhazia and are ready to square accounts with Georgia.

Chechen volunteers, who had fought in Abkhazia in 1993, could also join a hypothetical conflict and minimize Tbilisi's chances still further. The Georgian Army would be quickly defeated if Tbilisi tries to settle the conflict by force. The situation could change in case of foreign intervention. For instance, the United States could provide weapons, reconnaissance and other intelligence information to Georgia. New NATO members, such as Poland and the Baltic countries which are close U.S. allies, could even send their units to the conflict zone. The possible outcome could be succession from Abkhazia of its eastern and southern parts. Although NATO peacekeepers would be stationed there, military involvement is highly unlikely because its unsuccessful outcome would undermine the alliance's reputation. Brussels and Washington realize this, and are in no mood to conduct another protracted counter-insurgency operation.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080505/106586596.html