The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[crusader1492]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

A few things I noticed concerning the interview:

- The interviewer let the Tatar ambasador get away with saying that 15,000 Armenians live in Baku.

- He was forceful in his threats that war can start at any moment - "even in the next hour". This makes me believe that if they do not initiate a war with the next year, then they are bluffing and that Armenia should, henceforth, harden their position on NKR.

- The ambasador squirmed when he was questioned about Azerbaijan buying weapons from the US.

- When the interviewer quoted Sarkiyan's comment that "to be good Armenians is to be good Russians", the ambasador came off weak saying that Azerbaijanis in Russia should "integrate" in Russian but maintain their "Azeri Culture"...to a Russian nationalist, this statement must have pissed them off -especially in contrast to Sarkisyan's overtly pro-Russian comment.

[Anoush]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Yeah the tatar ambassador was bold enough to say to the interviewer that he is welcomed to come and see it for himself that 15,000 Armenians live in Baku.

By all means Armenia must harden their positions in NKR and as soon as possible.

If they are to buy weapons from US, hopefully by the time Obama is the president; I don't think he'll give it to them and I sure hope and pray that they don't.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

By watching that Russia Today interview closely one could actually feel some tension between the Russian interviewer and the Azeri ambassador named Bul Bul Ugly (what a name ). Tension between a foreign ambassador and a television personality is a bit unusual. As I have been saying, no matter how one looks at it - Azerbaijan is an unwilling hostage to Russia. Not only has official Baku been forced to comply with most of the Kremlin's wishes they are also forced to more-or-less accept the status quo in Nagorno Karabagh. If Armenia is dependent on Russia for survival so is Azerbaijan and Georgia in many geopolitical and economic aspects. This fact alone is more than enough for Russia to forcefully maintain its current position within the south Caucasus. Take statements made by both sides during Medvedev's trip to Baku and compare it to the ones regarding Sargsyan's trip to Moscow.

Armenian

**************************

Going North: President Sargsyan seeks to boost ties with Moscow on his first official visit

Armenia and Russia reaffirmed their firm strategic partnership and hoped for a further boost in relations as the two countries’ leaders met in the Kremlin earlier this week. Serzh Sargsyan, on his first official visit to a foreign country as president, assured his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev that Armenia wants further relations with Russia developing “within the framework of mutual understanding and strategic partnership.” For many observers, Sargsyan’s first official foreign trip in the capacity of president to Moscow was meant to show the inviolability of Armenia-Russian strategic partnership despite the changed leadership in both countries. “Russia is going to consolidate its positions as the chief investor in Armenia’s economy,” Medvedev said after his talks with Sargsyan. “The amount of capital investments already made [in Armenia] exceeds $1.2 billion.” Medvedev added that the sides have agreed some additional steps to promote a number of large projects being implemented by Russian companies in Armenia. Reminding that such large business structures as Gasprom, Russian Aluminum, Vimpelcom, VTB Bank successfully operate in Armenia, the Russian president spoke in favor of “strengthening the positive tendencies in investment cooperation, further stimulating investments, expanding production and technological cooperation.” Sargsyan, for his part, acknowledged the considerable level of Russian investments in Armenia and growing bilateral trade, but said: “Our goal is that in a year or a year and a half we measure these indicators not by the million or hundreds of millions, but by the billion.” The Armenian president also invited Medvedev to visit Armenia “at any convenient time”. While on his visit to Moscow Sargsyan also met with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. During the meeting both parties confirmed the continuity of policy in Armenian-Russian relations. “I want to assure you that we have implemented and will implement all programs that we planned with your before,” Putin said. He pointed out “a full continuity of Armenia’s policy towards Russia after the recent presidential election in Armenia.” Besides meeting Russia’s top leadership, while in Moscow Sargsyan also held a meeting with representatives of the Armenian Diaspora and Russian expert circles.

Source: http://www.armenianow.com/?action=vi...D=1193&lng=eng

Russian president hosts Armenian counterpart

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Tuesday hailed relations with Armenia and pledged to further bilateral ties during talks with his visiting counterpart of the Caucasus state. Relations between Moscow and Yerevan are those "of partners andallies," Medvedev told Armenian President Serzh Sargsian who is in Moscow for a three-day visit, Itar-Tass news agency reported. Medvedev suggested to talk about "the broadest spectrum of questions" during the meeting and hopes that it "will be productive and will be commensurate with the level of partnership and allied relations between the Russian Federation and Armenia." Sargsian expressed confidence that bilateral ties will develop along the road of mutual understanding and strategic partnership in accordance with bilateral treaties, Itar-Tass said. Russia and Armenia called for an early solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and pledged to take coordinate steps to ensure security in the South Caucasus, said a joint statement issued after the leader's talks in the Kremlin. Armed conflict broke out in the early 1990s between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region's status after it declared independence, which was not recognized by the international community. Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in northwest Azerbaijan, was populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. A Russian-brokered ceasefire halted the fighting in 1994, but the dispute remains unresolved. The presidents also spoke highly of cooperation in such sectors as oil and gas, transport and communications, mining and processing industries, as well as in the innovation sphere, Interfax reported. The visit is expected to boost trade and economic relations, as bilateral trade has surpassed 800 million U.S. dollars last year, Russian officials said. Armenia, with a population of three million, recorded 13-percent economic growth in 2007 and foreign trade reached 3.8 billion U.S. dollars, according to official statistics.

Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_8431718.htm

Russia, Armenia to develop strategic partnership relations

Russia and Armenia will develop their relations on the basis of large-scale strategic cooperation. “The cooperation will have the spirit of mutual trust, respect of the sovereignty, a peaceful settlement of disputes, not using force or a threat of force, non-interference in internal affairs of each other, equality and mutual benefit,” says a joint statement by the Russian and Armenian presidents, Dmitry Medvedev and Serzh Sargsian. Moscow and Yerevan “attach priority significance to the deepening of mutually beneficial economic cooperation”. The statement also cites as priorities the cooperation in the fuel and energy sector, transport, communications, steel, mining and processing industries and in the innovation sphere. The sides “will help the preservation of cultural and spiritual closeness of the two countries’ peoples and deepen relations in the sphere of culture, science, education, information and health care”. “The Russian and Armenian presidents are convinced that the current stage of the two countries’ relations opens a broad prospect for ally interaction and the intensive deepening of relations in all fields in the interest of development of the national economy, culture, ensuring peace, stability and guaranteed security in the Caucasus region and in the whole world,” the document says. The joint statement has 14 points presenting views of the presidents on different aspects of bilateral and international relations.

Source: http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....6962&PageNum=0

Medvedev, Sargsyan to discuss Karabakh conflict

President Serzh Sargsyan of Armenia and Dmitry Medvedev of Russia will discuss the Karabakh conflict settlement, a source in Kremlin told RIA Novosti. “Russia’s position is unchangeable. We will help the sides to find an acceptable solution to the conflict,” the source said. “The Presidents will also refer to the international agenda.” Serzh Sargsyan is in Moscow for a formal 2-day visit on invitation of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. President Sargsyan is also scheduled to meet with Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Federation Council Chairman Sergei Mironov and State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov. He is also expected to lay a wreath to the Unknown Soldier’s Tomb and meet with representatives of the Armenian community.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26407

Russia and Armenia to coordinate foreign policies

Russian and Armenian presidents signed a joint declaration basing on the results of their meeting in the Kremlin, APA reports quoting Novosti-Armenia agency. The declaration signed by Dmitry Medvedev and Serzh Sargsyan says that Russia and Armenia will coordinate their foreign policies for joint activity towards security in the South Caucasus, reinforcement of stability and development of cooperation. The countries said they support peaceful settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict approved by all sides and welcomed OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs’ efforts in this direction.

Source: http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=51080

President of Armenia: "Nagorno Karabakh problem can not have a solution, envisioning degradation of the present status of Nagorno Karabakh people"

"People of Nagorno Karabakh has won its right for independence and Nagorno Karabakh problem can not have a solution, envisioning degradation of present status of Nagorno Karabakh people", said President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan during the meeting with Armenian community of Russia, which took place in the framework of official visit of the President to Moscow on June 23. Serzh Sargsyan told the community representatives that during the meeting with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev the sides agreed to continue talks in the framework of the document, which includes all basic principles of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. "Nagorno Karabakh has never been part of Azerbaijan. It was transferred to the Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan by illegal decision of the party body, explaining that this step will help spread ideas of October revolution and communism in the Islamic East", noted Serzh Sargsyan.

Source: http://www.today.az/news/politics/45928.html

Armenia, Russia to develop military and political cooperation

Russia and Armenia will develop military and political cooperation not directed against third states, says a join statement signed by Dmitry Medvedev and Serzh Sargsyan on outcomes of their Kremlin talks. “The countries will help the process of international control over armament and promote efficiency of multilateral agreements,” the statement said. Russia and Armenia agreed to “develop constructive cooperation on bilateral basis and in the framework of the UN, OSCE, CIS, CSTO and other international organizations in the name of regional and international peace.” Both sides confirmed adherence to the UN regulations and spoke out for strengthening the organization’s potential to resist new challenges. “Russia and Armenia also intend to promote CIS development and confirmed importance of the CSTO as guarantor of security of its member states,” the statement says, RIA Novosti reports.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26421

Serzh Sargsyan: Armenia-Russia relations should strengthen day by day

Currently in Moscow on a formal visit, Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan met with Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to discuss bilateral economic relations, the RF government’s press office reported. “I am pleased to see continuity of Armenia’s policy after the presidential election. On behalf of the Russian government, I assure you that all programs we planned are being implemented. I am also pleased to see increase in commodity turnover between our states. Russian investments in Armenian economy totaled $1.2 billion. I am hopeful that your regular visit will convey a new impulse to our relations,” the Russian Premier said. For his part, President Sargsyan thanked Mr Putin for his contribution to the Armenian-Russian relations. “I welcome your constructive approach. Our relations should strengthen day by day,” he said.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26428

Russia and Armenia will work to resume operation of railway communications in Caucasus

Russia and Armenia will work to resume the operation of railway and other communications in the Caucasus, says the joint statement of the Armenian and Russian Presidents. Serzh Sargsyan and Dmitry Medvedev said they “will coordinate their activities with a purpose to strengthen security and stability in the South Caucasus.” The document also says that Yerevan and Moscow stand for soonest peaceful resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict on the basis of an agreement acceptable for all sides and welcome the endeavors of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Source: http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26423

[Anoush]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

My what a difference of the intelligent communication between our Sargsyan with the Russians and that stupid tatar ambassador.

Our Sargsyan is all out maintaining good relations with Russia without any negative talks; and

That idiot tatar maintained that their immigrants in Russia should continue "to keep their identity" bla... bla.. bla.., then spewing lies about the Armenians in Baku...., then going on about buying arms from the U.S.

Quel difference between our intelligent president and their stupid ambassador.

[Azad]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Quel difference between our intelligent president and their stupid ambassador.

Anoush, his name is Byul Byul Ugly. What do you expect?
Imagine receiving a resumé with a name like Byul Byul Ugly that 'll get him a job.

[Anoush]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Anoush, his name is Byul Byul Ugly. What do you expect?
Imagine receiving a resumé with a name like Byul Byul Ugly that 'll get him a job.

Ha ha that's funny... what a zero head name.

[North Pole]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Medvedev dismisses McCain's call for Russia to be ousted from G8

Russia's president has said that United States presidential candidate John McCain's pledge to seek Russia's expulsion from the G8 if elected was not a serious statement. Russia joined the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations in 1997, resulting in the G8. Medvedev will represent Russia for the first time at the forum's summit in Hokkiado, Japan, on July 7-9. "As far as I know, recently no one has been saying this. It is perfectly clear that any calls to expel Russia or to pressure Russia are simply not serious," Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with G8 media on Thursday, in response to a reporter's question on McCain's comments. In October last year, Republican candidate McCain said the G8 should become "a club of leading market democracies: It should include Brazil and India but exclude Russia." He cited "diminishing political freedoms, a leadership dominated by a clique of former intelligence officers, [and] efforts to bully democratic neighbors" in Russia. Medvedev said the G8 exists "not because anyone likes or dislikes it, but because it has objectively the largest economies and the most important players in terms of foreign policy." Attempts to restrict the group would damage the world order, he said.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080703/112857583.html

Actually John McCain said that back in 2007.
Here's a report from Reuters:

McCain would exclude Russia from G8 nations

Mon Oct 15, 2007

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Monday if elected he would push to exclude Russia from the Group of Eight conclave of major industrial nations to punish Moscow for rolling back political freedoms.

"We need a new Western approach to this revanchist Russia," McCain wrote in a Foreign Affairs magazine article outlining his views on foreign policy looking ahead to the November 2008 election. The Group of Eight, known as the G8, includes the United States, Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Canada, Japan and Russia. Their leaders gather each year in one of their countries to discuss major economic and political challenges facing the globe.
Russia is a fairly recent entry into the group, joining the Group of Seven in 1997, and President Vladimir Putin played host to the annual G8 summit in St. Petersburg in 2006.

READ MORE - http://www.reuters.com/article/polit...rpc=22&sp=true




I have a message for Mr.McCain - Hey, John McCain, shut the f*ck up!




July 6, 2008

Sunday

Dmitry Medvedev arrived in Japan to attend the G8 summit.

The G8 summit will be held on July 7–9 in Toyako, island of Hokkaido.

http://kremlin.ru/eng/sdocs/themes.shtml#203707

Russia's Medvedev arrives for G8 summit in Japan

17:42 | 06/ 07/ 2008

TOYAKO (Japan), July 6 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev arrived on Sunday in Japan's northernmost Island of Hokkaido for a summit of the G8 group of industrialized nations.

The annual summit of the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations - the U.S., the U.K., Italy, Canada, Russia, France, Germany and Japan will be held on July 7-9 to discuss the world economy, environmental concerns, African development and other pressing issues.

As part of the G8 summit, Medvedev is to meet with U.S. President George W. Bush, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, French President Nicholas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

At a meeting with his U.S. counterpart, Medvedev is expected to discuss security, U.S. missile shield plans for Europe, trade and energy issues, presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko said on the eve of the summit.

READ MORE - http://en.rian.ru/russia/20080706/113224169.html



Interview with journalists from the G8 countries

July 3, 2008
Recorded on July 1 in Moscow


CLIFFORD J. LEVY: Mr President, I want to ask a question about John McCain. You know that McCain proposed excluding Russia from the G8. Do you think that if McCain wins the election it will be difficult to establish good relations between Russia and the USA?


DMITRY MEDVEDEV: I think that the American economy’s ability to resist crises, and this is something the treasury secretary, Mr Paulson, spoke eloquently about yesterday, is linked to the fact that overall, the United States tries to follow a balanced policy. This policy should not depend on who stands at the helm. I do not want to comment therefore on individual statements related to the election campaign. As far as I know, no one has said anything specifically about this lately. It is very clear that the idea of excluding Russia or putting pressure on Russia simply cannot be taken seriously. The G8 does not exist because of someone’s likes or dislikes, but because these are objectively the biggest economies and biggest players in terms of foreign policy influence. Attempts to restrict anyone in this capacity would at the very least be damaging to the entire world order.

I think there is nothing more I can really say on this subject. I am sure that any administration in the United States, if it wants to achieve success, including in overcoming what is essentially a depression on its economic market today, will have to follow a pragmatic line both at home and abroad.

http://kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2008/07/03/1850_type82916_203509.shtml

[crusader1492]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

From an Azerbaijani media source:

AZERBAIJAN CAN’T REPLACE ARMENIA IN RUSSIA’S POLICY IN SOUTH CAUCASUS

There will be no breakthrough unless the sides come to a mutually acceptable agreement on Karabakh, a Russian expert said. “Talks can be held with participation of Dmitry Medvedev, George Bush and Barack Obama he is elected President. There will be no result unless the sides make mutual concessions. Nevertheless, talks are better than war,” said Sergei Markedonov, head of the inter-ethnic relations at the institute of political and military analysis. He remarked that the role of Moscow in the settlement process should not be overestimated. “There is no USSR or Central Committee of the Communist Party. So, it makes no sense to look for solution in Moscow,” he said, adding that before 2006 Russia and Azerbaijan demonstrated a strong capability to resolve disputable issues. “However, I think that Azerbaijan will never be able to replace Armenia and become Russia’s major ally in the Caucasus,” Markedonov said, Day.az reports.

[North Pole]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

South Ossetia Declares Nation-Wide Mobilization

Shelling reported in Georgia's breakaway region: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNuiaDA3KDg

Georgia’s breakaway province South Ossetia has declared the nation-wide mobilization following the attack on Tskhinvali at night from July 3 to 4. The death-toll is two persons, Interfax reported with reference to South Ossetia's officials. President of unrecognized South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity threatened to deploy major combat vehicles in the conflict area if the attack is launched again. South Ossetia’s capital, Tskhinvali, was under attack till 2:30 a.m., July 4, and the bombs hit nine houses. Georgia claims that the fire was opened after the previous night’s attack on Eredvi and Vanati villages. The peacekeepers’ contingent in the conflict area has been put into extreme combat alert and commanding officers urge opposing parties to immediately proceed to negotiations. In this respect, of interest is that Georgia unilaterally stepped up the strength of enforcement bodies in a few settlements of South Ossetia past afternoon.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-12774/Mo...South_Ossetia/

S.Ossetia says Georgia evacuating children before 'invasion'

16:13 | 08/ 07/ 2008


MOSCOW, July 8 (RIA Novosti) - Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia said on Tuesday that Tbilisi has evacuated around 300 children from ethnic-Georgian areas of the province, and accused the country of preparing an invasion.
Tensions have been escalating in the region since last week's shootout between Georgian and South Ossetian forces, in which one local was killed.

South Ossetian presidential envoy Dmitry Medoyev told RIA Novosti that the evacuation of local children "is a clear indication of preparations for a military invasion of South Ossetia. According to our information, since July 5 the Georgian military has evacuated around 300 children from its enclaves in Tamarasheni, Nuli, Eredvi and Kurta."

He said that South Ossetia has also taken precautions, sending children to recreation centers and health resorts in nearby countries and in Georgia's other rebel region, Abkhazia.
The envoy also said Georgia has been expanding its military presence on its border with South Ossetia.
"Georgian troops are covertly occupying empty buildings and equipping gun posts there. We are keeping an eye on the situation, but are not opening fire, as we have been ordered not to fall for provocations."

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080708/113518283.html

Abkhazia urges intl. groups to prevent terrorism

07/ 07/ 2008


SUKHUMI, July 7 (RIA Novosti) - The foreign ministry of Georgia's breakaway province of Abkhazia urged the international community to help in the fight against terrorism in the region on Monday following the death of four people in a blast.
Abkhazia is claiming that Georgia is responsible for a series of explosions that have rocked the self-proclaimed region since June 30. The most recent blast hit a cafe Sunday in the town of Gali, on the Georgian-Abkhaz border killing four and injuring six.

Abkhazia's foreign ministry said in a statement, to the UN, G8 and OSCE, "Ignoring such serious provocations could lead to an irreversible escalation in the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict."
Abkhazia's ministry said that the international community's silence is an indication of their indirect support for terrorism and puts into question the objectivity of international mediators in finding a political settlement to the conflict in the region.
The foreign ministry statement said that "the leadership of Georgia has been openly supporting terrorism" for 15 years, stating that Levan Mamasakhlisi, considered a terrorist by Abkhazia, had received awards from Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili.

The ministry said that the international community was turning a blind eye to the evident human rights violations and "the policy of terror" against Abkhazia and another breakaway republic of South Ossetia.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080707/113441472.html

[zeytuntsi]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

A couple of weeks ago Siamanto hinted that the gas pipeline is a strategic resource and would explain why Medvedev is ready for some "concessions/ass kissing." Guess what?
Did I mention that the Armenian president was "invited" (read "summoned") to visit Moscow before Medvedev's visit to Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan?

http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=12690#

» 07/05/2008 14:23

RUSSIA - CENTRAL ASIA
Medvedev in central Asia for energy monopoly
The Russian president visits Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan to convince them to send their gas through Russia, and reject the pipeline proposed by Europe. Baku's position is decisive, with pipelines already passing through into Turkey.

Ashgabat ( AsiaNews/Agencies) - The trip of Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to central Asia continues, in an effort to maintain the country's monopoly over gas for Europe. Turkmenistan alone exports about 70 billion cubic metres of gas each year (equal to Italy's annual consumption), and the European Union and Western companies are proposing for Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan the creation of new pipelines that would bypass Russia, which currently transports their gas.

The EU is proposing to Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhammedov the creation of a pipeline under the Caspian Sea to Baku (Azerbaijan). The gas would then be pumped through the Nabucco pipeline, under construction, which will extend to Vienna. The country also wants to send gas to China (as of 2009, it should sell 30 billion cubic metres to China each year) and across the Indian Ocean. In March of 2008, Russia offered Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan "European prices" for their gas, after underpaying for years and using the cheap gas domestically, while it sold its own to the European Union at much higher prices. But now Medvedev is trying to stay below the prices that the EU and China are thought to be willing to pay. He observes that the planned pipeline through the Caspian Sea could also create environmental risks. With Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan (the next stop on the trip), Russia will discuss rights to Caspian energy deposits, contested by the countries on its shore.

On July 3, Medvedev was in Azerbaijan to meet with president Ilham Aliyev. Aleksei Miller, head of the Russian company Gazprom, accompanied Medvedev and explained that "Gazprom and its counterparts in Azerbaijan have decided to begin talks over the conditions for buying Azerbaijani gas". In June, Miller was frequently in Baku and Ashgabat to prepare for the trip. The country's position is crucial, because Baku is the starting point for the pipeline that arrives at the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean, and also for the pipeline that goes through Tbilisi to Erzurum, and gas could arrive there from other countries, passing under the Caspian Sea.

The gas of the Shakh Deniz deposit should pass through the Nabucco pipeline. To prevent this, Moscow is willing to buy all of Baku's gas, more than 10 billion cubic metres per year. Moscow has said that it supports the country's claims over the Nagorno-Karabakh, currently controlled by Armenian separatists, which has won it words of gratitude from Aliyev. Various experts repeat, however, that it is in the country's interests not to bind itself to Russia, but to continue instead in the current state of uncertainty. (PB)

http://www.rbcnews.com/komment/komment.shtml?2008/07/02/32004447

Medvedev on Caspian tour to talk gas
President Dmitry Medvedev will visit Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to rally support for a ‘regional gas OPEC’

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is going on a tour of the Caspian region tomorrow, taking in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The agenda will focus on the prices for oil and gas supplies and transportation. For the moment, Russia has a stronger position in the Central Asian region than its western rivals.

The first destination will be Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, where Medvedev will spend two days, July 3 and 4. He is due to meet Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to discuss the construction of the North-South transport corridor from Russia to Iran, as well as the possibility for Gazprom to buy Azeri gas. From Baku Medvedev will then go to Turkmenistan to talk about the construction of the Caspian Gas Pipeline and the price for Turkmen gas. On July 6 he will arrive at the Kazakh capital of Astana to attend celebrations on the occasion of the capital city’s 10-year anniversary, and also to wish a happy birthday to the country’s President Nursultan. The event will be attended by other CIS leaders, too.

All the countries on Medvedev’s travel list are rich in oil and gas reserves, and it is so natural this issue in particular will dominate the agenda. Record high oil prices, at over $140 per barrel, have deepened a political and economic standoff between Russia and the West in the region. The stakes are high, and the President decided to handle the matter personally. As the former chairman of Gazprom’s Board of Directors, he is also an expert in oil and gas matters.

“The President’s visit highlights the important role the energy issue plays in Russia’s foreign policy,” Leonid Grigoryev, President of the Energy and Finance Institute, told RBC Daily. He expects Medvedev to focus on a discussion of long-term energy policy. Russia’s strategic goal is to earn profit from the transit of oil and gas through Russian territory and to ensure cooperation in the transportation of oil and gas resources to Europe, Grigoryev reckons. And so far things are not bad in this respect, he noted.

Experts are pinning their hopes on Medvedev’s Caspian tour being a success. “He should meet with all the heads of states because the issue of prices and further gas contracts are decided at the highest level,” says Igor Tomberg, chief researcher at the Center for Energy Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He remarked that Gazprom’s CEO Alexei Miller, who also toured the Caspian region recently, had not been received at such a level in any of the countries he visited except Azerbaijan. In this way, Tomberg says, the region’s politicians make it clear that they would only discuss matters of such importance with the President.

Experts say Medvedev has a good chance to settle all disputes and discuss the construction of the Caspian Gas Pipeline, expanding the gas transportation system from Central Asia to Russia. If Moscow and its Caspian partners can agree on prices, then it will be a setback for rival gas pipeline projects sponsored by Europe, the US and China. “Russia already has pipes, and if we offer the same price, why build new ones?” asks Tomberg. Especially given that the construction of new pipelines is fraught with significant risks.

Tomberg expects Medvedev to continue the Putin line urging the creation of a “regional OPEC for gas” in the Caspian region. Any such alliance could be based on a similar format as is used for the Eurasian Cooperation Organization, he thinks. Iran, which is also a Caspian country, could join the project in the future. “I hope that Medvedev will complete the creation of the regional ‘OPEC for gas,’ and the documents could be signed later at the corporate level,” Tomberg told RBC Daily.

Despite the West’s desperate attempts to squeeze Russia out of the region and to get Caspian oil and gas under control, things are still in Russia’s favor there. Unlike its rivals, Russia already has a large pipeline system in the Caspian region. It also pursues a more flexible policy of cooperation with its Caspian partners.

Analytical department of RIA RosBusinessConsulting