The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

[Armenian]

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Russia to cut military to 1 million by 2012

Russia plans to trim its armed forces by more than 10 percent by 2012 with radical cuts among the officer ranks, the defense minister said Wednesday. The Kremlin plans to streamline and modernize the military which has suffered from inefficiency and low morale despite steady increases in defense budgets in recent years. Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said in a statement that the military will be cut from 1.13 million to a total of 1 million in 2012 including 150,000 officers. The military now has about 400,000 officers, according to Russian media reports, so Serdyukov's statement means that almost two out of three officers will have to quit the armed forces. Serdyukov said the number of officers will be reduced gradually as they retire. "We aren't going to cut living flesh," he said in remarks posted on the ministry's Web site. He said the military will have more high-readiness units.

The defense minister said that the original intention had been to make the cuts by 2012 but President Dmitry Medvedev ordered the cuts sooner faster reduction in a plan approved last month. Officials long have promised to cut the number of officers in the Russian military, saying they make up a much bigger share of the military personnel in Russia compared to Western armies. Serdyukov, the former tax chief, was appointed defense minister in February 2007 in what was widely seen as a Kremlin move to bring more order into the military finances and combat widespread graft. Serdyukov has presided over a series of sometimes painful reorganizations and cuts which has drawn protests from the top brass. Generals have grumbled loudly over his initiatives to sell off lucrative military land, move the navy headquarters from Moscow to St. Petersburg and use civilians in support positions such as legal and medical staff. Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky was dismissed as chief of the military's General Staff in June after he had publicly criticized the navy move. Russian news reports said that the General Staff will be cut by half in the next few months. Russia has a draft but has reduced the mandatory term of service from two years to a single year.

Source: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g...l6LogD93MERP80

In related news:

Stability-2008: back to the major leagues

The Stability-2008 strategic maneuvers of the Russian armed forces are gaining momentum. On October 6, TU-95MS Bear-H and TU-160 Blackjack strategic bombers began training flights with full combat payloads and the live firing of cruise missiles at practice targets. The Stability-2008 strategic exercise, which began on September 21 in Russian and Belarusian territory and at sea, is the largest since the Soviet era. Within the next month the armed forces will be practicing a wide variety of tasks, including containing armed conflicts and strategic deterrence. In total, the drill will feature tens of thousands of servicemen, thousands of vehicles, air and naval forces, space troops and strategic nuclear forces in mass. The exercise is remarkable not only for its scale but also its character. The Russian and Belarusian armed forces practice operations both in simulated local conflict and in full-scale warfare, involving aggressive fighting for air superiority, missile defense, naval warfare and strategic strikes.

The potential adversary is not directly specified, but, judging from the drill's scale and the tasks, it could be fairly stated that it is considering NATO and its allies. It's not the first time that "anti-NATO" drills are being held, but with anti-Western rhetoric gradually hardening after the recent five-day war in South Ossetia, Stability-2008 is an open demonstration of preparedness for a new Cold War. Not only are certain combat missions being practiced, but also new methods of troop command and control are being tested. Reportedly, cutting-edge reconnaissance technology, automatic troop command and control and real-time data exchange systems are being put through extensive testing. The logistics services practice long-distance cargo delivery and ground troop support for deployed naval and air forces. Also, combat and logistics units practice interaction with regional and local authorities, the police and the Federal Security Service (FSB). Such major exercises, comparable with real military operations, must check the state's capability of operating in modern warfare. Notably, the Interior Ministry's forces practice team action with military units in the field, using police helicopters for reconnaissance missions in some cases.

The intensity of the Russian armed forces' operations has been growing in recent years, and is now a bit closer to that of the Soviet era, when large-scale exercises like Dnepr-67, Okean-70 (Ocean-70) or Zapad-81 (West-81) were held on a regular basis. Large-scale exercises demonstrated the Soviet armed forces' capability of meeting any challenge, and their current resumption is a fairly positive development. Preparedness for a full-scale conflict, which would involve a variety of missions ranging from counterinsurgency operations to elimination of the adversary's strategic nuclear forces, could be tested only by major exercises. Limited tactical drills alone, although necessary to maintain the armed forces' capabilities, offer no opportunity to the military to practice team play of large units in strategic operations, which makes the army a set of units incapable of operating in high-intensity conflicts. Russia needs no such army today. It's time to prove its Major League status.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20081007/117536324.html

Russian naval task force to visit Libya on Saturday

A naval task force from Russia's Northern Fleet, led by the nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Veliky, will visit the Libyan capital October 11-13, an aide to the Navy commander said Wednesday. Capt. 1st Rank Igor Dygalo said the Neustrashimy (Fearless) missile frigate from Russia's Baltic Fleet would call at Tripoli at the same time to replenish supplies. He added that the frigate would then continue its tour of duty via the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. "The Neutrashimy will go to Somalia where it will ensure the safety of Russian vessels passing through this area against pirate attacks," he said. Last Wednesday, Somali Ambassador to Russia Mohamed Handule said his country's President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed had authorized Russia's military to fight pirates off Somalia's coast and on land. Pirates are increasingly active in the waters off Somalia, which has no effective government and no navy to police its coastline. The International Maritime Bureau said more than 30 incidents of piracy were registered in the region in 2007. More than 30 attacks have been committed so far this year off the coast of the East African nation.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081008/117590763.html

[Buy A Viagra]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Mass killings of Armenians by turks; otherwise known as the Armenian Genocide?

What was the exact Armenian population in ottoman empire before mass killings/genocide/massacres whatever.

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Bravo Mr. Sargsyan!

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ARMENIA'S BALANCED POSTURE

"It was obvious that the Georgian President had a more hospitable and generous attitude to our country's President than to the President of Azerbaijan. I am gratified to emphasize the fact that our country's posture on the Georgian-Ossetian conflict was noticed, recorded and estimated in a proper manner. Armenia's balanced posture in this particular case was conditioned by the interests of our country; however, the interests of our neighbor and strategic ally were also taken into consideration. But we can't say the same about Azerbaijan. Our country's President also demonstrated political boldness in such a delicate situation. Instead of speculating the exacerbated relations between its neighbors and strategic allies, he tried to achieve the peaceful solution of all the problems," KIRO MANOYAN finds.

Source: http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg246558.html

Armenia, Georgia Pledge Closer Ties

The presidents of Armenia and Georgia have pledged to strengthen bilateral economic ties and further simplify border crossing procedures for their citizens after their first face-to-face talks since the Russian-Georgian war. President Serzh Sarkisian met his Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili and other Georgian leaders on Tuesday during a two-day visit to Tbilisi. Saakashvili was reported to stress the importance of Georgian-Armenian economic integration as they spoke at a late-night joint news conference in his residence. "The Georgian-Armenian border should be and already is a border of friendship," Saakashvili said, according to the Georgian Caucasus Press news agency. "We have agreed to work more closely. I have instructed the ministers of finance and economy to visit Yerevan in order to ensure that border crossing procedures are as simple as possible." "I think that recent developments in Georgia have clearly demonstrated how important regional cooperation is, how everybody suffers from problems and conflicts and how important it is to solve all the issues quickly," Saakashvili said. "I am sure that the future of the Caucasus lies is in the creation of a single market,” he added.

Saakashvili also announced that he and Sarkisian agreed to set up a Georgian-Armenian consortium that will seek to attract foreign funding for the construction of a mountain pass in western Georgia which he said will significantly shorten travel between Armenia and the Georgian Black Sea cost. Georgia’s Black Sea ports of Batumi and Poti process at least 70 percent of cargos shipped to and from Armenia. The two supply routes were temporarily disrupted during Georgia’s brief but devastating war with Russia. The Yerevan government has sought to maintain neutrality in the Russian-Georgian conflict, anxious not to upset Armenia’s most important neighbor and closest military ally. But it has implicitly blamed Georgia for the August 8 outbreak of fighting in South Ossetia that provoked a harsh Russian retaliation and escalated into an all-out war. Sarkisian appeared to repeat his thinly veiled criticism of the Georgian government’s ill-fated attempt to win back South Ossetia. “I believe that it is impossible to resolve existing problems through military intervention,” the Regnum news agency quoted him as telling journalists in Tbilisi. “The Caucasus is an object of big [foreign] interests and we must do our best to use those interests to the benefit of our peoples,” he said. “We must review our relationship and do everything to again improve them. I am sure that we will really be useful to each other,” added the Armenian leader. Saakashvili signaled his satisfaction with Yerevan’s stance on the Russian-Georgian dispute when he thanked Sarkisian for “expressing support for Georgia’s territorial integrity.” He went on to give Sarkisian a Medal of Honor, a top Georgian state award.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...C17532870C.ASP

[gmd]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Armenian, what do you think of the impact of demographics projections for Russia over the next 50 yrs and the impact this will have on shaping future Russian societies' outlook towards the rest of the world? Specifically do you think Russian society will be more sensitive to its growing Muslim population and how it interacts with other Islamic nations such as Azerbaijan and Turkey.

[Azad]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

THE JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER DILEMMA
AUSTRALIA FEATURED NATO

As Australia is considering buying a hundred Lockheed-Martin/Boeing F-35A fighter-bombers for USD 83 million a piece, reports have emerged that the much-advertised stealth aircraft was comprehensively defeated by Sukhoi Su-35 in August 2008 during classified computer-simulated war games in Hawaii conducted by the USAF with participation from other NATO members. While Pentagon and Lockheed-Martin officials hotly dispute the reports, at least four RAAF personnel and a member of Australia’s Defence Intelligence Organisation were said to have witnessed the simulation. The West Australian newspaper reported earlier this month that F-35s have been “clubbed like baby seals” by the simulated Su-35s.


LOCKHEED-MARTIN F-35A LIGHTNING II

Originally, Australia opted for the most “basic” version of the JSF - the F-35A, which lacks short or vertical takeoff/landing capability. Over the past few years the cost of this aircraft ballooned some 54% to $83 million for each aircraft bringing the total cost of the program, should Australia choose to go forward with it, to USD 16 billion. To put this amount in perspective, the latest Sukhoi Su-35 costs about $65 million and the Su-30M retails for less than $45 million. An article in Jane’s Defence Weekly by noted combat aircraft expert Pierre Sprey and defense spending analyst Winslow Wheeler was highly critical of the JSF:

“It is too fast to see the tactical targets it is shooting at, too delicate and flammable to withstand ground fire and it lacks the payload and especially the endurance to loiter usefully over US forces for sustained periods as they manoeuvre on the ground.”

On the other hand, pitting the F-35 against the Su-35 is a bit like comparing apples to oranges. The American aircraft was designed primarily as a light strike aircraft with air-to-air capability, while the Russian Su-35 is a heavy air-superiority fighter with ground attack capability. The Su-35 is faster, has longer range, higher payload, and it can carry a greater variety of weapons than the F-35. And for every F-35 you can buy two Su-30Ms or one Su-35 with about USD 20 million to spare. While Australia’s South-East Asian neighbors are buying Sukhois, Canberra has its eyes set on overpriced Lockheed products. For some time now Australia has been trying to get the US to lift export ban on the F-22, which would be a much better match for the Russian-made jets but comes at a mind-boggling cost of USD 138 million.


SUKHOI SU-35

Australia is too deeply entangled with the US military-industrial complex to make the right choice here. If Washington lets them, the Australians will buy the F-22 - the most expensive production fighter aircraft ever built - and, if not, then RAAF will be flying the “baby seals”. It is interesting that Australia even joined the JSF project in the first place, considering that it had no need for STOVL capability but has a requirement for maximum range in excess of 1,500 nautical miles, which F-35 cannot deliver. However, politics takes precedence over common sense wherever Australia’s defense strategy is concerned. And so Australia is betting on Lockheed’s “stealth”, which, apparently, is not a big problem for Sukhoi’s powerful new radars.

http://www.venik4.com/?p=2881

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Suspected Russian arms dealer strikes back at U.S.

A suspected Russian arms dealer detained in Thailand said his arrest and trial had been arranged by the United States because he refused to become an American spy. Viktor Bout, 41, was arrested in March in Bangkok during a joint police operation led by agents from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). The second hearing in his case in a Thai court started on Friday. In an interview published Friday in Kommersant, a Russian business daily, Bout said Washington fabricated charges against him after he had refused to work as an informant. "I was approached by some recruiters, especially in South Africa, who said it would be good if I shared with them information about the situation in one country or another and offered me a lot of perks. But I was not interested and I refused," Kommersant quoted him as saying. "They attempted to recruit me because we worked with Libyans and ... some other countries that the Americans had an interest in. And after I refused, the UN started a sham investigation," he added.

Western law enforcement agencies consider Bout to be "the most prominent foreign businessman" involved in trafficking arms to UN-embargoed destinations, including the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola. UN reports say Bout set up a network of more than 50 cargo aircraft around the world to facilitate his arms shipments, earning the nickname "merchant of death." Bout admitted that his company transported weaponry around the world as part of its business operations, but said the shipments were legal. "Everyone is attempting to picture me as an 'arms baron' or a 'merchant of death' ... but all shipment companies deliver weaponry, which is considered a legal cargo if declared properly," he said. DEA prosecutors accuse Bout of conspiring with others to sell millions of dollars worth of weapons to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a leftist group listed by the United States as a terrorist organization.

Thailand received in early May a formal request from Washington to extradite Bout to the United States, where he has been indicted on four charges: conspiracy to kill Americans and U.S. officers or employees, conspiring to provide material support to terrorists, and conspiring to acquire and use an anti-aircraft missile. The former officer in the Russian army faces a life sentence if tried in a U.S. court, while Thai authorities earlier announced that they would not press charges against Bout. Bout's Russian lawyer, Yan Dasgupta, said Thursday that the United States had no chance of securing extradition of his client under Thai law. "As a lawyer I can say with certainty that if the case is reviewed [by Thai court] in line with the law, there is no chance for his extradition whatsoever," Dasgupta said.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/russia/20081010/117656946.html

[Federate]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

GEORGIAN TRANSIT BAN HINDERS RUSSIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN ARMENIA

Raising a serious obstacle to Russia’s military presence in Armenia, Georgia appears to have closed its airspace to transport planes making vital shipments to Russian troops stationed in the neighboring South Caucasus state.

According to Russian and Armenian officials, the move is the result of the recent Russian-Georgian war that has redrawn the geopolitical picture in the region. They say the Russian military is now forced to re-route supplies to its base in Armenia via Iran and even Azerbaijan, which has long resented Moscow’s close defense links with its archenemy.

Policymakers and defense experts in Yerevan, however, downplay the significance of the apparent ban on the transit of Russian military personnel and cargos through Georgian territory. They insist that it does not call into question the continued deployment of some 5,000 Russian troops at the western Armenian town of Gyumri, a key element of Armenia’s national security doctrine.

"Georgia no longer provides us with air corridors," Colonel Ashot Karapetian, deputy commander of the Russian military base in Armenia, told EurasiaNet. "Our supplies are now being carried out via Azerbaijan and Iran."

Karapetian described those supplies as erratic, saying that Russia secures over-flight permissions from these countries with "great difficulty." "But despite these difficulties, we are getting by and doing everything to continue our service. The government and armed forces of Armenia deserve much of the credit for that," he said, adding that they have helped the Russian base stockpile fuel, food and other materiel.

A Russian diplomatic source confirmed the information. The Georgian ban, the source said, also applies to Russian civilian aircraft flying to and from Armenia. Russia’s defense and foreign ministries refused to comment officially, however. Georgia’s defense ministry also declined comment.

Whether the issue was on the agenda of Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov’s October 3-4 visit to Yerevan is not clear. In a short statement, the Armenian defense ministry said only that Serdyukov and his Armenian counterpart, Seyran Ohanian, discussed "issues relating to bilateral military cooperation."

Georgia has served as the main transit route for deliveries to Armenia’s Russian military base ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union. Russian-Georgian agreements have regulated the transit. Even before the August 2008 outbreak of fighting, the Russians had accused the Georgians of failing to comply with the most recent agreement, signed in March 2006, and restricting over-flights.

Armenian officials, however, seem confident that Moscow will not close its Armenia base in the foreseeable future despite the serious logistical problems posed by the closure of Georgian air space.

"These are short-term problems that have no legal basis and cannot be long-lasting," said Artur Aghabekian, a retired army general and former deputy defense minister who now heads the Armenian parliament’s committee on defense and security.

"If Georgia doesn’t provide an air corridor, Russia will find alternative ways of supplying its military base here," Aghabekian told EurasiaNet. "After all, Russia is bound by an agreement with Armenia that commits it to keeping the base combat-ready and on high alert. Russia will resort to any method to honor that obligation."

Another former deputy defense minister agreed. "I don’t think that these obstacles will have any influence on the continued existence of the Russian base in Armenia," said Vahan Shirkhanian. "Russia is a powerful country. Supplying a small base, whether through Iran or Azerbaijan or even Turkey, is not a problem for it." Both Russia and Armenia will need the base at Gyumri "for a long time," he added.

Located close to the Turkish border, the Russian base at Gyumri has enabled Armenia to receive large quantities of Russian weapons at cut-down prices or even free of charge, and thereby somewhat offset energy-rich Azerbaijan’s soaring defense expenditures.

In particular, Russia has recently helped to upgrade and modernize its South Caucasus ally’s air defense system. The deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force, Lieutenant General Aytech Bizhev, revealed in early 2007 that Armenian anti-aircraft officers had been trained to operate the sophisticated S-300 missile systems as part of that assistance. The long-range surface-to-air missiles were deployed in Armenia in the late 1990s and are part of a joint Russian-Armenian system of air defense.

The Russian military presence in Armenia has also precluded any potential Turkish military intervention in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, allowing Yerevan to concentrate the bulk of its military power on the frontier with Azerbaijan. Despite its recent overtures to Yerevan, Turkey has lent unconditional support to Azerbaijan in the dispute and continues to link the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations to a Karabakh settlement acceptable to Baku.

Not surprisingly, the military alliance with Russia remains the cornerstone of Armenia’s defense strategy despite its increased military cooperation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United States in particular. Visiting Yerevan on October 3, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow is not worried about Armenia’s growing defense links with the West not least because they do not hold the prospect of membership in NATO.

Speaking to EurasiaNet, Shirkhanian, who was a key figure in the Armenian defense establishment throughout the 1990s, said the crisis in Georgia has, in fact, only increased the importance of military cooperation with Russia for Armenia. Aghabekian was more cautious in that regard, saying that Yerevan should review the official National Security Strategy unveiled in February 2007. But the pro-government lawmaker would not elaborate about specific changes which he believes need to be made in the strategy.

The 27-page document underlines the "strategic character" of the Russian-Armenian relationship and its military component, saying that membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization will become even more important for Armenia in the coming years. It says at the same time that closer ties with NATO, the United States and the European Union are another "guarantee" of the country’s security.

In the latest indication of this so-called "complementary" policy, on September 29 Armenia began hosting the first NATO-led military exercises in the region since the Russian-Georgian war. Both Russia and Georgia snubbed the three-week drills involving about a thousand soldiers from 17 countries, including the US.

From http://www.eurasianet.org/department...v101008a.shtml

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia Sponsors More Karabakh Talks

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a trilateral meeting with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts on Friday to discuss details of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace accord proposed by Russia and other international mediators. The meeting took place on the sidelines of a Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan just days after Lavrov described as “very real” chances of a near-term solution to the Karabakh conflict. In a newspaper interview published on Tuesday, he said the conflicting parties need to work out only “two or three unresolved issues,” including the future of the Lachin corridor connecting Armenia to the disputed region. Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian was reported to comment ambiguously on Lavrov’s remarks after the Bishkek talks. “As regards statements that that key issues in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have been agreed on, I have said and would like to repeat that the most important of those issues is Nagorno-Karabakh’s status, which should be determined by means of a free expression of the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s will,” Nalbandian told journalists, according to the Armenian Foreign Ministry. “And if there are views that the key issues have been solved, then one can conclude that there is mutual understanding on those issues,” he said without elaboration. The U.S., Russian and French co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group have been trying to get the parties to accept their proposed basic principles of Karabakh peace that envisage a gradual settlement of the dispute. The mediators hope that the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will meet again and finalize the framework peace deal before the end of this year. Such a meeting would most probably take place after Azerbaijan’s October 15 presidential election, which the incumbent Aliev is widely expected to win. The Armenian Foreign Ministry cited Nalbandian as saying that the peace process will enter “a more active phase” and that “it will be possible to organize new meetings” after the vote. It gave no details of Nalbandian’s talks with Lavrov and Azerbaijan’s Elmar Mammadyarov.

Source: http://www.armenialiberty.org/armeni...B7CEDDC889.ASP

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

From the evil ones at the Council on Foreign Relations

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Turkey's Rising Star

Interviewee: Hugh Pope, Turkey project director for the International Crisis Group; author of "Turkey Unveiled: A History of Modern Turkey."
Interviewer: Greg Bruno, Staff writer, CFR.org

October 9, 2008

Hugh PopeWhen Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in August, Turkey was thrust into a delicate balancing act between a pro-democratic West and an emergent Russia, a nation that supplies the bulk of Turkey's energy resources. But as International Crisis Group expert Hugh Pope sees it, Turkey's foreign policy strategy requires Ankara to maintain neutral ties with competing parties, and for now, the strategy is working. Pope says the chaotic security situation in Iraq partly explains why Turkey's star is rising. As Turkey increases its relationships with states like Iran and Syria, which Washington regards as "rogue" elements in the region, Ankara's value to the West may increase further. Pope says the international community should reward this ascendance by voting Turkey onto the UN Security Council as a nonpermanent member, a seat Turkey has been lobbying for incessantly. "They have open channels of dialogue with everybody," Pope says. "A lot of people underestimate how much Turkey can do behind the scenes."

Turkey is aiming to strike a balance between friend and foe, evidenced by Ankara's desire to maintain relations with Syria, Israel, Iran, and Iraq. But as we've seen with the recent Russia-Georgia conflict, tensions do emerge. Going forward, how will Turkey balance its many competing interests around the region?

This is the main factor that we've had under the AK Party [AKP, or Justice and Development Party] certainly. It's part of a trend that has existed now for several years. Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip Erdogan] also tried to build this circle of friends around Turkey, and it's been remarkably successful. Twenty years ago, there were all enemies around Turkey, and the best of them was Soviet Bulgaria. And now, there are only two remaining as disputed borders: one is Armenia, and the other is Cyprus. If the Black Sea becomes a contested area, that's a big problem for Turkey. That is an area where the United States is pushing and Turkey is allowing some U.S. naval vessels through into the Black Sea. But it's trying to minimize it. What will Turkey do? It will try and use its regional influence, which has grown, to persuade the United States, if it can persuade it, to give it more space, and it will try and make its arguments more heard in Washington. That hasn't happened in recent years but in the last year it has become much better with Washington since the dispute of Iraq has cleared up. Turkey will always choose with the United States, I think, as things are right now, especially when it comes to a choice between the United States and Russia. But Turkey's whole strategy will be to delay any such moment of truth. They do not want to be outed on this question.

Have there been changes to Turkey's strategic leverage that gives it more influence in Washington? Or are improved relations simply the result of a better war result in Iraq?

The situation in Iraq made the United States realize that everything that it planned for in Iraq was not going to happen just as it wanted to. Iraq was not going to become the new centerpiece of the new Middle East. So, in that sense Turkey has recovered some of its profile in Washington. Another big reason for it was the United States accepted they could no longer defy or just ignore Turkey's requests on the PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party], which was the one thing Turkey really cared about. And so that opened the door for a lot more cooperation. And, it certainly made all the difference that the U.S. is sending regular visitors to Ankara. It's a very important part of a smoothing relationship. Another possible cloud on the horizon is [whether] the question of the Armenian genocide [will] come up again in Washington, probably next April.

Turks widely believe that the United States came to the region, came to Iraq, with the ultimate aim of gaining leverage over Turkey economically and strategically. What's behind this paranoia?

Turkey has lived on its own for a long time. And the latest Transatlantic Trends survey (PDF) shows that 48 percent of people in Turkey believe that they should act alone on the international stage. Where does it come from? Turkey is founded on a quite unusual set of circumstances that allowed it to be basically the only country that is not subject to worse than imperialism, and they did that through a very narrowly won victory in the 1920s. The West wanted to carve up Turkey-America included, Woodrow Wilson signed it-into a series of little statelets of which the Turks would get something a bit akin to an American Indian reservation. It was in defiance of the Europeans, and that is the main spring of this suspicion of the West: "We made this Turkey despite the West." And even though during the Cold War, America did masses of things to support Turkey; they know that they are somewhat dependent on the United States for armaments, for strategic support, even in this fight against the PKK, they're dependent on the Americans. That of course gives you a dependency relationship which makes you very worried about what your patron is going to do.

You just mentioned military cooperation. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Adm. Mike Mullen, was recently in Istanbul and Ankara. Can you shed a little bit of light on what the United States wants now?

The U.S. always has a long list of requirements. I remember the days when the U.S. ambassador's office had a coffee table on which were only an F-16, an M116 tank, and another piece of U.S. military equipment. That was the only image one left the office with. And, yes, the United States has a long laundry list of things that it wants. But the main result of Mike Mullen's visit was to illustrate to Turkey that they're being taken seriously. And this is half of the battle, that they're being listened to. And that, for the United States, has done a great deal. To come here is very important because it's hard to overstate the extent to which people have not been coming to Turkey in the years before. [The U.S.] will be looking for help on Georgia. Yes, Turkey's going to help on that. Turkey wants to seem independent of Georgia. Turkey does not want to have Russian troops on its border again in the way it used to be in the Cold War. But, at the same time, they are also not wishing to do anything that would create another excuse for Russia to advance. And Iran, of course, is another big issue. The Turks are the only [country] from the Western camp who's been able to explain the Western position face-to-face with Ahmadinejad. If he [Erdogan] is expressing a European position to Ahmadinejad, not the American position, then they know exactly how far the United States is going to go against Iran. But how can Turkey have it all? Take the Russian example. When Turkey allowed U.S. warships to pass through the Bosporus strait, Russia responded by closing doors to exports, increasing custom checks, and ultimately costing the Turks a lot of money. Turkey has no choice. As you just pointed out, this conflict, any conflict, any rise in tension in this area, costs the Turkish economy money. And that's what Turkey's trying to avoid. As the threats rise around it, Turkey will just draw in its horns. It will become less able to, for instance, pursue big new projects in Russia, will become less able to get what it needs to do in the Iranian energy scene. All these things are costs for Turkey. It's not like Turkey is winning by being friends with these people. It's just trying to keep out of the way as much as possible.

Two weeks after we saw the Russia-Georgia situation, Turkey's energy minister was in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Is the energy security one of the biggest issues that Turkey's going to face going forward?

Things has already gone over the top, relying on Russian gas [for 65 percent of Turkey's gas imports]. That says it all. That's not going to be changed. You talked about going to Iran for gas. How are they going to get gas from Iran? Iran is not investing in its gas fields. It's a bureaucratic mess; it's under the threat of foreign sanctions. We've been talking about the South Pars gas field for years and years and years. What's happened? Nothing, except on the Qatari side, where they've gone ahead. Iranians have not been able to do much. Every winter the Iranians cut the existing gas flow, and it's not necessarily political, it's maybe just because Iran has an energy crisis of its own. You know, there are reasons Iran is wanting nuclear energy. Its energy policy is not delivering enough energy for its huge population. And it's cold in Iran in the winter. Going to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, yes, it's important for [Turkey's energy future].

And other Central Asian states?

And Azerbaijan. The opening up of Central Asia and the Caucuses to international engagement is one of the huge pluses of the end of the Cold War. It's a great achievement of U.S. foreign policy at the time; they were the only ones who really saw it and jumped on it and took advantage of it, supported Turkey's role there. Turkey's not a political model or anything in those countries, but it's deeply engaged commercially. It's not just energy. Almost everything you see being built in these countries has Turkish nuts and bolts in it. They are the biggest individual country supplying businessmen in the service sector in these countries, so it's not just energy.

Turkey has traveled to New York to make a plea to join the UN Security Council as a nonpermanent member. A decision has not been made, but do you think they have made their case?

It's a question of prestige. Turkey obviously as a representative of the European bloc is going to be actually rather limited in what it can do as Turkey on the Security Council, but it wants to be seen as a regional power now. And actually, why not? The time has come. It's a great symbol for Europe to choose Turkey because Turkey is actually a member of almost every major European institution, from the Eurovision Song Contest to the OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development], and in fact, has the closest relationship with the European Union of any non-EU member, although the last step is turning out pretty complicated. But Turkey has a lot of unique things that it represents. I mean, the European Union decision to start negotiation with Turkey was a message to the whole Muslim world that we can treat Muslims as equals. A Turkish PM [prime minister] or president in the morning in Jerusalem, in the evening in Tehran, and then in Khartoum? They have open channels of dialogue with everybody. A lot of people underestimate how much Turkey can do behind the scenes.

Source: http://www.cfr.org/publication/17462...pe%3Dinterview

In related news:

EU urges Turkey to get serious about Nabucco

Turkey should waste no more time and negotiate seriously over conditions to make the planned $12 billion Nabucco gas pipeline a reality, a top EU official said on Friday. The project is designed to bring central Asian gas to Europe via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. Supporters say it is vital to wean the region from over-dependence on Russian energy. 'I encourage my Turkish friends to engage now seriously in the discussions in view of making Nabucco operational as of 2013,' said Olli Rehn, who as EU Enlargement Commissioner is charged with assessing Turkey's bid to join the 27-member bloc. 'Too much time has already been wasted on arguing rather than making things happen,' Rehn told an audience in Istanbul. Analysts have criticised Turkey for dragging its feet at the bargaining table to try to secure higher transit fees and rights to trade gas going through the pipeline, due to supply an annual 30 billion cubic metres of Caspian or Middle Eastern gas. But some observers say hopes of construction are quickly fading, especially after the conflict in Georgia increased doubts about the security of investing in the turbulent region.

Source: http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited...fx5537225.html

[Armenian]

Re: The Rise of the Russian Empire: Russo-Armenian Relations

Russia test-fires ballistic missile to mid-Pacific

Medvedev witnesses record missile launch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKLumYJCYGQ

Russia test-launched a strategic missile to the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean for the first time on Saturday, at a time when Moscow's growing assertiveness is fuelling tension with the West. President Dmitry Medvedev, who watched the launch from the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, has said problems caused by global financial turmoil would not hurt Russian plans to revive its armed forces, a symbol for Moscow's resurgence. Russia's newest missile, the Sineva, was launched by the nuclear-powered submarine Tula from an underwater position in the Arctic Barents Sea, and hit an unspecified area near the equator in the Pacific Ocean, a navy spokesman said. "For the first time in the history of the Russian Navy the target of the missile was in an equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean rather than the Kura testing ground on the Kamchatka Peninsula," he said. Russian television showed the missile emerging from the icy waters of the Arctic Barents sea for the 11,547 km (7,200 miles) journey to the Pacific. "Not one missile of this class has ever flown so far," Russian television showed Medvedev telling sailors. The spokesman did not specify the area where the missile landed. He said the area was closed for navigation and flights ahead of the test in accordance with international rules. Medvedev's predecessor Vladimir Putin focused on reviving the armed forces, which were neglected for around 10 years after the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia's strategic bombers have restarted regular patrols over the Atlantic Ocean, irking NATO, and a group of the Northern Fleet ships is on its way to the Caribbean to take part in joint exercises with U.S. foe Venezuela. Two Russian warships and their support vessels docked in Tripoli ahead of making the transatlantic trip.

MODERNISE FORCES

Russia's commitment to modernize its armed forces has grown as its ties with the West reached their lowest point since the Cold War after Russian troops crushed Georgia's attempt to retake a pro-Moscow separatist region. On Saturday, Medvedev said Russia would start building aircraft carriers, a type of vessel once derided by the Soviet military as an instrument of imperialism unbecoming of Moscow's defensive military posture. He said Russia should "not scrimp" on its armed forced and called for government spending to improve living condition for its armed forces as well as new weapons systems. Russia, which saw eight years of strong economic growth under Putin, has adopted the goal of becoming one of the world's leading economies by 2020. Medvedev says the economy has enough resources to survive the global turmoil and achieve its goals. Putin, now Russia's prime minister, has said the next year's budges will see another 30-percent growth in defense spending. The Sineva missile, advertised by the Russia military as an element of a new generation of Russian strategic weapons capable of surpassing any missile defense system, was commissioned last year. The Russian military says the missiles of Sineva's class will be operational at least until 2030. Medvedev's appearance with the Northern Fleet in Murmansk is his second major visit to navy installations in just two weeks and he will oversee exercises attended by 5,000 troops, eight warships and five submarines.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...=moreheadlines

In other news:

Nightmare on Wall Street as U.S. debt hits record high

America - the end of an era: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sM_SRhZcNFE

The United States has the highest level of foreign debt in the world, which has nearly doubled during the Presidency of George W. Bush. The country’s national debt has also just reached its ultimate high. A debt clock was put up in a New York street in 1989. Then the figure was around 2.7 trillion dollars. Nearly 20 years later, that number has increased almost fivefold and exceeded the expectations of the clock’s designers. Just a few weeks ago, the clock ran out of space. When the figure hit 10 trillion it forced the dollar sign out of its allocated space. A re-design is underway, with enough space for a quadrillion - a number so obscure that few could imagine what it amounts to. Manhattan's Times Square is a favourite tourist hotspot. Now, more and more Americans come to take photos of the frightening figure - because even though the economy is taking a kicking, this clock just keeps on ticking. Very few U.S. citizens can say they are free of the credit vice - and who can blame them? Low rates, alluring deals - and all you ever wanted, but couldn't afford, suddenly becomes possible. But this American Dream is turning into a nightmare. Wall Street is likely to take most of the blame. “During the age of Reagan Wall Street was immune to that kind of criticism and political attention,” says historian Steven Fraser. “Now we can see enormous widespread anger. I think in the foreseeable future Wall Street will be the object of great scrutiny, supervision, anger and suspicion.” Fraser has been fascinated by the enigma of Wall Street for years. History repeats itself in many ways, but the scenario right now reminded him of another famous figure. “They created a Frankenstein. Nobody knows what is going on, that’s what makes the moment so frightening,” he said. It seems history has presented this crisis in a new light. Ever since the end of WW2, national debt decreased with every Democratic administration. After the presidency of Ronald Reagan, every Republican term has seen a steep rise in debt. When George W Bush took office, the figure stood at 5.7 trillion dollars. But the fact that figure has nearly doubled has led to accusations he’s used the nation as an AmEx Black card. His time is about to run out, but someone else will have to pick up the tab.

Source: http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/31727