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This sums up the US/Turkish discourse concerning Armenians pretty acurately:
What happens if Pelosi breaks US-Turkish modus vivendi?
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Burak BEKDIL
Well it’s like a joke featuring an American and a Turk -- and, for a change, no Englishman or Frenchman. The American has been telling everyone that his Turkish friend’s wife sleeps with everyone, but been meticulously avoiding calling her 'a prostitute.'
Burak Bekdil
Well it's like a joke featuring an American and a Turk -- and, for a change, no Englishman or Frenchman. The American has been telling everyone that his Turkish friend's wife sleeps with everyone, but been meticulously avoiding calling her ?a prostitute.? The Turk hears every word of his American friend's gossip but keeps silent because ?the American doesn't call my wife a prostitute.? One day, while the two men are sipping their drinks at a bar, the American calls the Turk's wife a prostitute. The Turks turns around and shoots him.
Avoiding the word prostitute, like in the joke, or ?genocide? in real life, has been the basis of a bizarre modus vivendi between the United States and Turkey. Every spring American bigwigs get busy with the thesaurus, looking for a synonym for ?prostitute/genocide? in the hope of ?saying what they should say but at the same time not offending a friend too much.? That may change this spring.
What happens if the new Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi decides to change the ?terms of endearment? this year?
1 -- That will be bad news for many in corporate boardrooms. Immediate casualties, as always, will be in the defense business i.e. Lockheed Martin, Sikorsky, Boeing and Raytheon. The Turkish military will have to boycott U.S. weapons suppliers as it does the French. Otherwise the military establishment would look ?unserious,? to put it mildly. Which general can explain boycotting French arms suppliers because the French Parliament recognized the Armenian genocide but not boycotting American arms suppliers when Congress recognizes it? Which Turkish general will comfortably sign a major arms deal with a U.S. manufacturer?
2 -- The U.S. seal on the Armenian genocide will maximize anti-American (and anti-Western) sentiments in Turkey. Turkey's attitude towards the United States, on a 100-point scale, which declined from 28 in 2004 to 20 in 2006 (and towards the EU from 52 to 45) will probably plunge to less than 10.
3 -- That will happen at a time when Turkey will be extra tense due to a secularist/neo-Islamist war over the presidential election and, half a year later, parliamentary elections. A time, too, when Turks have felt increasingly anti-Western and directionless.
4 -- That, therefore, will be bad news not only for the U.S. defense corporate boardrooms, but also for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an. Erdogan's political grouping will be perceived by the public as the first Turkish government that failed to stop ?the American calling the Turk's wife a prostitute.? Pelosi may well cost Erdogan's party a few percentage points in November.
5 -- 2007 is not an ordinary year in Turkish politics. Therefore, a U.S. ?seal of approval? of the Armenian genocide may change the outlook in both the presidential and parliamentary elections. Erdogan's neo-Islamists, for the neo-cons in Washington, are probably still the favored bunch to rule Turkey -- the role model. So, a move from the usual line in April would mean ?Washington going against its own policy.? The ?g-word? would also mean unnecessary turmoil in Turkey that could hardly go in line with U.S. interests in this part of the world. A lot of trouble for no real gain…
6 -- There are quite a few countries in the world that have recognized the Armenian genocide. But an U.S. ?seal of approval? will certainly have different repercussions in Turkey and elsewhere than, for example, the Slovak stamp. It will set a precedent, generate a chain reaction in other countries and probably have legal repercussions too; or at least make the basis for potential legal repercussions.
7 -- Ankara and Washington are already differ fundamentally on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)/Iraqi Kurdish Entity. The ?allies? have diverging, not converging, interests as regards to the country Erdo?an says is even more important for Turkey than the European Union -- Iraq. The bureaucracy that keeps a pair of retired U.S. and Turkish generals busy under the guise of ?special envoys to coordinate the fight against terrorism (PKK)? has in recent months proved to be ?special envoys to delude the Turkish public that the Americans really intend to fight the PKK.? If a U.S. ?seal of approval? on the Armenian genocide adds to the Turkish perceptions of U.S. reluctance to fight the PKK, there would probably be a combined effect at a (negative) synergy size.
8 -- But how would the Turk ?shoot?? That's another issue. The ?unpredictable Turk? would probably be tempted to retaliate in ways no rational man can now think of. All sorts of governmental and public boycotts are possible. One can for a start predict, for example, a Turkish parliamentary resolution recognizing a Native American genocide. But who can guess what more could happen in this semi-sane country? Who can guess which ?mad Turk? would attack what target that he deemed American -- an F-16 fighter that belongs to the Turkish Air Force? U.S. medicine that cures Turkish patients? Or would he randomly kill a few important Americans and spark a crisis unseen before on the Ankara-Washington axis?
The American has never so close to feeling tempted to call his Turkish friend's wife ?a prostitute.? True, he never said the Turkish friend's wife was faithful, but he has always refrained from using ?that word.? That was the modus vivendi between the two friends. It may not be so this spring and there may be a brawl between the two as never seen before.
What happens if Pelosi breaks US-Turkish modus vivendi?
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Burak BEKDIL
Well it’s like a joke featuring an American and a Turk -- and, for a change, no Englishman or Frenchman. The American has been telling everyone that his Turkish friend’s wife sleeps with everyone, but been meticulously avoiding calling her 'a prostitute.'
Burak Bekdil
Well it's like a joke featuring an American and a Turk -- and, for a change, no Englishman or Frenchman. The American has been telling everyone that his Turkish friend's wife sleeps with everyone, but been meticulously avoiding calling her ?a prostitute.? The Turk hears every word of his American friend's gossip but keeps silent because ?the American doesn't call my wife a prostitute.? One day, while the two men are sipping their drinks at a bar, the American calls the Turk's wife a prostitute. The Turks turns around and shoots him.
Avoiding the word prostitute, like in the joke, or ?genocide? in real life, has been the basis of a bizarre modus vivendi between the United States and Turkey. Every spring American bigwigs get busy with the thesaurus, looking for a synonym for ?prostitute/genocide? in the hope of ?saying what they should say but at the same time not offending a friend too much.? That may change this spring.
What happens if the new Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi decides to change the ?terms of endearment? this year?
1 -- That will be bad news for many in corporate boardrooms. Immediate casualties, as always, will be in the defense business i.e. Lockheed Martin, Sikorsky, Boeing and Raytheon. The Turkish military will have to boycott U.S. weapons suppliers as it does the French. Otherwise the military establishment would look ?unserious,? to put it mildly. Which general can explain boycotting French arms suppliers because the French Parliament recognized the Armenian genocide but not boycotting American arms suppliers when Congress recognizes it? Which Turkish general will comfortably sign a major arms deal with a U.S. manufacturer?
2 -- The U.S. seal on the Armenian genocide will maximize anti-American (and anti-Western) sentiments in Turkey. Turkey's attitude towards the United States, on a 100-point scale, which declined from 28 in 2004 to 20 in 2006 (and towards the EU from 52 to 45) will probably plunge to less than 10.
3 -- That will happen at a time when Turkey will be extra tense due to a secularist/neo-Islamist war over the presidential election and, half a year later, parliamentary elections. A time, too, when Turks have felt increasingly anti-Western and directionless.
4 -- That, therefore, will be bad news not only for the U.S. defense corporate boardrooms, but also for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an. Erdogan's political grouping will be perceived by the public as the first Turkish government that failed to stop ?the American calling the Turk's wife a prostitute.? Pelosi may well cost Erdogan's party a few percentage points in November.
5 -- 2007 is not an ordinary year in Turkish politics. Therefore, a U.S. ?seal of approval? of the Armenian genocide may change the outlook in both the presidential and parliamentary elections. Erdogan's neo-Islamists, for the neo-cons in Washington, are probably still the favored bunch to rule Turkey -- the role model. So, a move from the usual line in April would mean ?Washington going against its own policy.? The ?g-word? would also mean unnecessary turmoil in Turkey that could hardly go in line with U.S. interests in this part of the world. A lot of trouble for no real gain…
6 -- There are quite a few countries in the world that have recognized the Armenian genocide. But an U.S. ?seal of approval? will certainly have different repercussions in Turkey and elsewhere than, for example, the Slovak stamp. It will set a precedent, generate a chain reaction in other countries and probably have legal repercussions too; or at least make the basis for potential legal repercussions.
7 -- Ankara and Washington are already differ fundamentally on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)/Iraqi Kurdish Entity. The ?allies? have diverging, not converging, interests as regards to the country Erdo?an says is even more important for Turkey than the European Union -- Iraq. The bureaucracy that keeps a pair of retired U.S. and Turkish generals busy under the guise of ?special envoys to coordinate the fight against terrorism (PKK)? has in recent months proved to be ?special envoys to delude the Turkish public that the Americans really intend to fight the PKK.? If a U.S. ?seal of approval? on the Armenian genocide adds to the Turkish perceptions of U.S. reluctance to fight the PKK, there would probably be a combined effect at a (negative) synergy size.
8 -- But how would the Turk ?shoot?? That's another issue. The ?unpredictable Turk? would probably be tempted to retaliate in ways no rational man can now think of. All sorts of governmental and public boycotts are possible. One can for a start predict, for example, a Turkish parliamentary resolution recognizing a Native American genocide. But who can guess what more could happen in this semi-sane country? Who can guess which ?mad Turk? would attack what target that he deemed American -- an F-16 fighter that belongs to the Turkish Air Force? U.S. medicine that cures Turkish patients? Or would he randomly kill a few important Americans and spark a crisis unseen before on the Ankara-Washington axis?
The American has never so close to feeling tempted to call his Turkish friend's wife ?a prostitute.? True, he never said the Turkish friend's wife was faithful, but he has always refrained from using ?that word.? That was the modus vivendi between the two friends. It may not be so this spring and there may be a brawl between the two as never seen before.
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