Georgia-Ossetia

[Joseph]

Bad move Saakashvili

[Joseph]

My random thoughts regarding the war and other events regarding Ossetia, Georgia, Russia.

1. Georgia overplayed its hand. Saakhashvili foolishly believed the US/NATO was willing and able to stand up to Russia militarily in the Caucasus, an area Russia rightly considers its near abroad. Furthermore, the US is already stretched thin in Afghanistan and Iraq and the other NATO members do not have the stones to take on Russia.

2. Russia has every right to be alarmed at US/NATO actions in Georgia and elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, just as the US would be concerned if Russia had bases in Mexico and Canada {btw, due to the latest gaffes by Bush and his neocon cronies, the Russians will have new bases in Cuba and Venezuela soon} as revenge for the NATO missile shield proposed by the Bush administration. Russia is justifiably angered that NATO would even consider countries that border Russia as NATO members. As much as NATO claims they are not trying to antagonize Russia, their actions betray their false statements of peace. Russia feels threatened and thus lashes out and rightly so.

3. The Russia of 2008 and not the same humiliated Russia of 1993. They are even more battle-hardened, well-armed and now very motivated. Russia still manufactures some of the best and most sophisticated armaments ever made and they now have the chance to test them out and show the world they mean business. Their army, despite it lingering problems, is leaner, meaner, and relatively well-trained.

4. Russia is the source for the majority of the EU's oil supply. The Europeans and others do not want to jeopardize their relations with Russia in the long-term and in the short term for that matter. Russia has more oil than the Saudis, the Kazakhs, and the Iranians put together from their resources in Siberia alone.

5. The BTC {Baku-Ceyhan} pipeline exports only 1% of the world oil needs to the market. It is strictly a political pipeline and used to further infuriate Russia. G*d willing, the Russians might decide to destroy it during their assault. This would not surprise me. After the Kurdish assault on the pipeline and the current war in Georgia, the pipeline is starting to appear as a geo-political failure.

6. No, the Russians are not "commies", they are not the big, bad Soviet Union. They are capitalists and doing a pretty good job of it even if the economy is very dependent on the strength of the oil commodity. Russia is a huge market and though still a country mired in poverty, there is a growing middle and wealthy class, job creation, modernization, and economic integration with the west.

7. If the Georgians want so bad to integrate the Ossetians and Abkhazia into Georgia, then why did the Georgians indiscriminately fire missiles directly at the civilian population in Ossetia and kill over 1,000 in two nights? Is that any way to treat people who you claim are you citizens? It reminds me of all the Azeri rhetoric towards the Armenians in Artsakh. Ossetia and Abhazia are lost forever to Georgia. The Ossettes and Abkhazians neither want to be part of Georgia, they do not speak Georgians, and they long to be part of Russia. Georgia would be wise to avoid a future catastrophe and sent them free. Since day 1 of Georgian independence, the Abkahz and Ossettes had decided not to be part of Georgia. The same goes Artsakh {Nagorno-Karabakh} in relation to Azerbaijan. Once you begin to mistreat and attack a group of people, you have no right to claim governance over them.

8. If Georgia let Abkhazia and Ossetia years ago, they would not be in this mess and relations with their powerful northern neighbor might be cordial.

9. It is entirely hypocritical for the US/NATO/UN to grant independence to Kosovo, East Timor, Montenegro, Eritrea while at the same time denying it to Nagorno-Karabakh, Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kurdistan, etc.
It is so transparently hypocritical because it shows that the US/NATO is looking out only for its economic, political, and military interests and not the interests of the people being victimized. If the US was willing to bomb the Serbs in 1999 and violate Yugoslavia territorial integrity to break Kosovo away from it, they have no right to criticize Russia. The head of NATO made a statement today that Russia must ceasefire and relinquish control of Abkhazia and Ossetia to Georgia...is he kidding?

10. The US needs to learn that Russia, Iran, France, etc have their own interests and that was is best for the US is not always best for others. Just as the US will pursue its own interests, so will other nations and furthermore, the US interests are not always right and beneficial to world peace and stability.

11. I've heard a lot of criticism for Russia's action in Chechnya. Russia was indeed heavy-handed and committed atrocities but let's not forget that the Chechens themselves were equally brutal. The Chechens essentially won their freedom from Russia after the 1994-1996 war and were given the chance to have a referendum where they could vote to be free. This was orchestrated by the late General Lebed of the Russian forces. Everyone agreed and the war ended.

Yet some Chechens, namely Shamil Basayev {DEAD!} and his militia were not satisfied. In the name of "Jihad" they attacked Daghestan and slaughtered innocents in Beslan and elsewhere, thus provoking Russia. Now Chechnya is really no more, more aptly, Russia is back in control and their is only sporadic fighting on occasion. Most of the male population of Chechnya is gone.

12. The US could have be partners with Russia in fighting global jihad as Russia faces the same pressures but of course the US blew this opportunity.


More to come....

[Joseph]

http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/70987

Russia shows Georgia and the World the bear has claws!

Ian Brockwell



August 10, 2008

What on earth was the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili thinking when he ordered the attack on South Ossetia? Did he honestly think Russia would not respond in the way they did?

Apparently, Alexander Lomaya, secretary of Georgia´s National Security Council was surprised at the intensity of Russia´s response and said "What we didn´t expect was that Russian troops themselves would enter Georgia, that Russian military equipment would bomb our cities in various parts of the country, that Russian soldiers would be shelling villages and positions of Georgian forces". I guess he knows better now!

Saakashvili almost certainly realizes the potential danger he is now in, after inviting the wrath of Russia with this attack. He can consider himself fortunate if Russia don´t take control of the whole of Georgia and force his resignation before they leave (and they still might).

Maybe Saakashvili thought the United States would send troops to support him (along with all the weapons they have been supplying), but even Bush is not crazy enough to have a war with Russia (even if he thinks about it in his dreams).




Georgia have perhaps learnt their first lesson in having an alliance with the US, the partnership has serious limitations. The deal only benefits the high level officials in the country, not the people. The Bush administration don´t care about the "democracy" in Georgia or the people who live there, they just want countries with oil, countries that can carry oil pipelines and places as close to Russia as possible (to make that "dream" come true in the future).




Bush has not helped matters by saying "Georgia is a sovereign nation, and its territorial integrity must be respected". Putin and Russia absolutely hate receiving criticism from a man who illegally invaded a sovereign nation himself (Iraq) using lies to do so. Unlike the US, Russia is defending its citizens in South Ossetia, not invading some far away country in order to steal its oil!

Russia´s response to Georgia is just as much a message to the rest of the world, and that message is "If you mess with us, you will pay a price"

The US and Europe have pushed their luck much too far with Russia, and they are tired of being insulted, robbed by oligarchs who seek refuge in other countries (when the heat gets turned up), companies dictating terms to them in their own country, being accused of murders, being told how to run their country and having foreign backed activists causing political disturbances.

If the rest of the world truly wants Russia to be friendly and helpful, they need to show a lot more respect than they have just lately. Putin has made it very clear that he is willing to be reasonable, but this has to be a two-way deal.

The alternatives are not very attractive for those who are unwilling to make some effort. This could include Russia reducing (or even stopping) gas supplies to Europe. New missiles bases might appear in European areas and countries much closer to the United States. Alliances with other countries (like China, India and maybe even Iran) may grow stronger, and this will change the economic and military balance in the world.

Perhaps Bush and leaders of other countries might give this some thought the next time they speak about Russia, or try "bribing" a Russian neighbor into stabbing its old partner in the back!

[Joseph]

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2008/08/georgia.html?referer=sphere_related_content

[bell-the-cat]

Its amusing that in press conferences and so on Saakashvili seems to be always pictured with a Georgian flag on one side and an EU flag on the other - as if his country was a member of the EU! Even European politicians don't generally pose next to the EU flag. The EU flag also flies at Georgian border crossing points.

However, there is no need to overly praise Russia while rightly condemning Georgia. Georgia is the little nasty, Russia is the big nasty. Neither care much about the actual Ossetians.

[Hovik]

As if Armenians needed ANOTHER reason not to vote for this guy...

McCain would back Georgia NATO bid if elected Tue Aug 12, 7:58 PM ET



Washington (AFP) - Republican White House contender John McCain said Tuesday he would support Georgia's bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if he is elected president in November.

"I would move forward at the right time with the application for membership in NATO by Georgia," McCain told Fox News television.

"As you know, through the NATO membership, that if a member nation is attacked, it is viewed as an attack on all," said the Arizona senator, alluding to Russia's military aggression on Georgia.

"We don't have, I think, right now, the ability to intervene in any way except in a humanitarian, economic way, and do what we can to help the Georgians," he added.

McCain, 71, also reiterated his call for Russia to be kicked out of the Group of Eight most industrialized nations.

"Russia no longer shares any of the values and principles of the G-8, so they should be excluded," he said.

Georgia's bid to join NATO has divided the alliance. During an April summit in Bucharest, NATO leaders deferred putting Georgia and Ukraine on a formal path to membership but agreed that the two former Soviet republics "will become members" at some point.

The formula was intended as a compromise between opposing positions taken by France, Germany and several other members, and the United States, which had pushed hard on behalf of Georgia and Ukraine's NATO aspirations.

It extended no security commitments, but it may have emboldened Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in his dealings with the Russians, as they stepped up pressure on Tblisi.

And it infuriated the Russians who had been given assurances that the summit would not approve a further NATO expansion into the two former Soviet republics.

To distance himself from President George W. Bush on the Georgia-Russia conflict, McCain said the US leader "probably had a higher opinion of (Russian Prime Minister) Vladimir Putin than I do."

Bush once said he that upon looking into Putin's eyes he saw "his soul" while McCain said he saw "three letters: K-- G-- B."

"Yes, I saw that," McCain said Tuesday.

Asked about his Democratic rival Barack Obama's view of the ongoing conflict in the Caucasus, McCain said he respected the Illinois senator's views, adding that he believed it "important that we act in a bipartisan fashion now.

"There's no room for partisanship now."

Obama, on vacation in Hawaii, on Tuesday read a statement blaming Russia for increasing tensions in the Caucasus.

"No matter how this conflict started, Russia has escalated it well beyond the dispute over South Ossetia and invaded another country," said Obama, 47.

"There is no possible justification for these attacks," he added.

[Pedro Xaramillo]

McCain and Bush

Bush once said he that upon looking into Putin's eyes he saw "his soul" while McCain said he saw "three letters: K-- G-- B."

Is he on medication, has he considered trying any

Seriously if he is having halucination maybe he shouldn't be running for presidency.

On a different note, aren't Georgians becoming really anti Armenian in modern times, I heard from someone there is violence by Nationlist Georgians in regards to the Armenian population

[Joseph]

Is he on medication, has he considered trying any

Seriously if he is having halucination maybe he shouldn't be running for presidency.

On a different note, aren't Georgians becoming really anti Armenian in modern times, I heard from someone there is violence by Nationlist Georgians in regards to the Armenian population

Let's just say he's not getting any less senile as everyday passes

Georgians are very anti-Armenian and have been for centuries. The Armenians in the Javakh region of Georgia are regularly harassed by the Georgian authorities

[Joseph]

ASPECTS OF THE CAUCASUS CONFLICT - YOU MAY NOT BE AWARE OF...
by Armen Kouyoumdjian

Newropeans Magazine
Friday, 15 August 2008
France

One has to pity the unfortunate timing of the US state of Georgia,
for having chosen the very week of the Caucasus conflict to organise
a seminar in Santiago about the attractions of the peanut state
(considering the natives' weak hold on geography).

Based on my interest and activities in the region, I tried to interest
the Chilean media in a more informed coverage of the South Ossetia
conflict, but as usual with no response. "No necesitamos asesorÃ*as
extranjeras", as Mexico's former president Lopez Portillo once
declared. Here are some additional thoughts and facts, for anyone
who is interested.

PROVOKING THE BEAR

For centuries, Russia has had a defensive fortress attitude, and is
extremely touchy of any actual or potential hostility on its borders
and "near abroad". The end of the USSR suddenly created a number of
such risks, and a power struggle between actors as to which camp they
would jump in. Having had to swallow the loss of influence upon such
reluctant former allies as Hungary or Poland, things became more
serious when the struggle moved onto more threatening ground. The
Baltic villages with nationhood ambitions may be irrelevant as
risks, but the Islamic republics of Central Asia are not, though its
current Muslim battles are in Chechnya. It managed to keep a hold
on Belarus, but the Ukraine has been the subject of a deep political
struggle. In the Caucasus, Armenia is the only almost unconditional
fan (notwithstanding foreign financed groups who try to push towards
an alignment with the West). Azerbaijan appears to be firmly in
the hands of a family dictatorship financed by energy resources,
and backed by neighbouring Turkey and the countries from where the
oil multinationals came. Georgia has been the plum prize over which
the struggle has been the hottest.

One can discuss for hours as to who bears the blame for conflict,
though remember that policing Southern Ossetia was handed over
to Russia by the UN. The latest episode is obviously the result
of a misplaced Georgian bravado, only comparable to the Argentine
invasion of the Falklands/Malvinas, by thinking that there would be
no reaction. Russia has now shown, if there was any need to prove it,
that it will continue to be the mover and shaker in the area. The
whole thing had been simmering for some time, and Russia accused
Georgia of helping the Chechen rebels in the past.

GEORGIA

A nation with an old tradition and culture, independent Georgia has
nevertheless failed to project itself internationally and modernise. It
has no vibrant Diaspora like Armenia, and the only famous Georgian
is Stalin, and that says a lot. It has become an uncouth and corrupt
place (even by the non exacting standards of the region). It has at
least two separatist regions (Abkhazia and South Ossetia), and a third
potential one about which people outside the area know nothing. Its
Southeast region of Akherkhalaki is mainly populated by Armenians,
and was until recently the location of a huge Russian military base,
which has had to be evacuated. For the anecdote, Charles Aznavour's
family comes from that region. Though there is no formal separatist
movement in what is a godforsaken place, becoming even poorer after the
closure of the Russian base, the Georgian authorities are sufficiently
paranoid about it to encourage ethnic Georgians from other parts of the
country to settle in recent years so as to modify the population mix.

Whereas most people, even youngsters and children, still learn and
speak Russian in Armenia, where Moscow TV stations are accessible
without cable connection and old street signs in Cyrillic on streets
and shops have remained untouched, Georgia has actively pursued a
"derussification" policy.

THE ISRAELI CONNECTION

Did Israel mistakenly empower Georgian aggression? The Israelis
have been very active in the Caucasus region since the end of the
USSR. This takes several forms. In the case of Azerbaijan, they
have been the technical partners of the USA and Britain, countries
backing their oil multinationals operating in the country, providing
on the spot training and intelligence. They have the advantage of
possessing a good supply of Russian speakers who emigrated from the
region during and after the Cold War, and Russian is still the lingua
franca round the place. With Armenia, they have shamefully cooperated
with Turkey in Genocide negation, enlisting the sometimes reluctant
help of Diaspora Jewish organisation. They shall have to atone for
that disgraceful attitude one day.

However, the link with Georgia has been the closest. Within the
effort to "turn around" the country towards the West and NATO,
Israel's military-industrial complex found its niche. The effort
gathered momentum from 2001, and has been helped by the close links
of Georgian defence minister Davit Kezerashvili with Israeli. He is
not only Jewish (as is the minister in charge of "re-integration",
Temur Yakobashvili), but actually emigrated to Israel in his youth,
and had part of his education there, before returning to Georgia and
entering politics. He maintains close links with Israel, and is also
very close to the Georgian president. Both he and Yakobashvili are
fluent in Hebrew.

His presence and help encouraged Israeli firms such as IAI and Elbit
to offer sophisticated equipment, as Georgia went on a shopping spree
to modernise its armed forces to NATO standards. They delivered UAVs,
upgraded armoured vehicles, and supplied AA systems, communication
and other electronic equipment, rockets and ammunition.

The effort was not limited to hardware. Reserve Israeli generals Hirsh
and Ziv provided instruction on intelligence, urban combat, etc..even
setting up an elite deep penetration unit modelled on the Israeli
Sayeret Matkal. Maybe Hirsh was not the most judicious choice as an
adviser, as he had to leave the active list as one of the top officers
responsible for the 2006 Lebanon debacle. As for Yisrael Ziv, he runs
Global CST, a security firm which has been associated with the Ingrid
Betancourt rescue operation, and is widely considered as a Mossad arm.

The military flirting between Georgia and Israel was not
problem-free. As the planned sales got more sophisticated, the
Russians pressured the Israelis and told them in no uncertain terms
that they were not amused, and that it would have consequences in
other areas of relations between the two countries. The Foreign
ministry pressured its Defence colleagues, who had to clamp down
on frustrated suppliers. It is also significant that all sales were
suspended when the latest conflict started.

The human material they trained was also less than top. The corrupt
and unmotivated Georgian military establishment was certainly not the
top of the class (news footage of the recent conflict actually shows
them looking like a ragtag guerrilla band rather than a disciplined
army, not to mention pictures of abandoned military vehicles whose
crews seemed to have fled without even bothering to fight). Still,
if it is true that they managed to bring down 19 Russian planes,
they must have learned something.

Well apart from the military links, there is also reported to have
been quite a bit of business investment from Israel into Georgia.

ENERGY ASPECTS

In my July 30 paper on oil I wrote, referring to the triumvirate of
Iran, Russia and Venezuela, "They cannot afford either an interruption
in supplies or a collapse in the oil price. They will do everything,
and I mean anything, in order to avoid such a possibility". Though
Russia did not start the current conflict, it might well have escalated
it more than it needed to as a way of reversing the slide in the price
of crude, which is off some 20 % from its record highs (Mrs. Bachelet
seems to ignore that because on August 13, she said "the price of
oil keeps going up"). So far, the price has failed to recover, but
Russia may have achieved a more important longer-term objective: to
discourage future projects through the Caucasus, competing with its
own lucrative business which includes supplying the greater part of
all the gas consumed in Europe. Already, BP has shut off two of its
pipelines going through Georgia as a "safety measure". Some time ago,
Armenia, which has no energy of its own beyond an elderly nuclear
station, and whose conflict with Azerbaijan has meant that all the
pipelines from the Caspian to the West by-pass it, once discreetly
reminded the world that several of the lines passed within reach of
its long-range artillery, even if they were outside its territory.

The Caucasus has a very old oil tradition. The world's first oil
well was drilled in what is today Azerbaijan as far ago as 1847,
and by the turn of the century, the Nobels, the Rothschilds and
my compatriot Calouste Gulbenkian were all active in the Baku oil
fields. Gulbenkian subsequently moved West, and between he and his son
Nubar, were instrumental in setting up not only the Iraq Petroleum
Company, but also to finally persuade Shell to drill in Venezuela,
despite its reluctant chairman who insisted that "my dear Gulbenkian,
you know there is no oil in Venezuela". I wonder if comandante Chávez
knows this story. Armenians, all ways creative.

Currently, only Azerbaijan has hydrocarbons among the three Caucasus
republics, but the region had been planned to transport, in particular
gas, from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to European markets by-passing
the Russian network.

THE NEIGHBOURS

I mentioned earlier that Azerbaijan appeared to be in firm hands. In
fact, it is full of instabilities. The dictatorial Aliyev Jr. does not
have the mettle of his father, though he is as corrupt, and despite
the oil and gas wealth, the people are poorer than in Armenia. The
mainly Shi'a-Muslim population is divided between a westernised
capital dominated by Turkish investors and the oil industry expats,
and a countryside where Iranian-financed Islamic Madrasas simmer
against the sinners in the capital. A potential time bomb not made any
easier by the appearance in recent years of the Salafi ultra-orthodox
current of Islam.

Neighbouring Iran also has a large and restive Azeri minority, which
Tehran does not want to get any more bright ideas. Despite the common
brand of Islam, the Turko-Iranian competition in influence has meant
that relations with Iran are somewhat subdued.

Last but not least is the Karabagh conflict, where Azerbaijan not only
lost control of the Armenian populated territory given to Azerbaijan
by Stalin in an attempt to ingratiate himself to Kemal Ataturk, whom
he expected to head a friendly Communist regime in Turkey (!). In
the same war, Azerbaijan also lost 20 % of its territory proper,
which is still occupied by Armenian troops, and has created a major
refugee problem. Since a mid-90's ceasefire, and despite numerous
negotiations, the situation is a stalemate.

For Armenia, the South Ossetia conflict is a good news/bad news
situation. The presence of thousands of Russian troops and two bases
on its territory, with additional materiel transferred from the
closed base in Georgia and thus ready to equip more, is an additional
guarantee against any Azeri adventure, now that the Russians have
shown that they are ready to act.

On the negative side, the conflict has shown the vulnerability of
Armenia to events in Georgia. Though disruptions were kept miraculously
to a minimum so far, much of the gas supplies and trade in and out
of landlocked Armenia, transit through Georgia. With the Turkish
border closed, the only other alternative route is through Iran. It is
longer and more expensive. Iran is also an alternative source of gas,
with the onset of a pipeline from the south, though it is not clear
whether this has yet been connected to the central Armenian network.

The psychological damage is also important. Foreign investors and
tourists, already affected by corruption and poor governance in the
first instance, and expensive air fares and a strong Armenian currency
which has doubled against the dollar in recent years, may become more
reluctant. One good move would be to achieve a motus vivendi with
Turkey to re-open the border, and some progress had been reported in
that direction prior to the Ossetian conflict.

THE GREAT POWERS

We Armenians know very well that in geopolitics, distance does not
make the heart grow fonder, and when push comes to shove, you are
on your own. The Georgians have now found it out at their expense,
belatedly. Did they really think, or had someone had told them, as
in the attempted Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba, that they should take
the lead in attacking and others would follow? In the event, even
the unscrupulous Israelis let them down, and it took several days for
the Americans to say tut tut to Russia, not very convincingly. They
apparently offered transport to bring back the Georgian battalion
from Iraq, and are to send humanitarian aid. Britain's Royal Navy
cancelled a joint exercise with Russia. Big deal. The French sent
in two planeloads of humanitarian aid, and their busybody president
who happened to chair the EU and fancied himself as having brokered
an agreement which the Russians planned to play to in any case,
for the moment and as they wish. Sarkozy may yet turn out to have
played Daladier in the show. At the time of writing, the ceasefire
was already under stress.

Anyway, what could the foreign powers do? Attack Russia? The bottom
line might be to convince those Eastern Europeans still pondering
which side of the fence to jump, that in foreign politics, there are no
friends, just interests. As British energy and security specialist John
Roberts writes: "Frozen conflicts are simply ice-covered volcanoes".

[Steph]

My random thoughts regarding the war and other events regarding Ossetia, Georgia, Russia.



More to come....

Not really so random Joseph, Russia has quite rightly spanked the backside of the thoroughly nasty Georgians, it's their backyard and Russia is the preferred "policeman" in that neighbourhood.

The tragedy is in the civilian casualties, once again...........