Tweet
Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict
It appears that Russia is now pouring troops, tanks and artillery into the region as well as making bombing runs well inside Georgia. They need to hit the Georgians ten-fold.
The Georgians certainly took the offensive and made some initial gains but they'll no doubt be thrown back by a Russia counter-attack. The Georgians have made their point but now the Russians will make theirs. The US is too bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan to help Georgia and beyond scolding Russia, the Europeans will do nothing. It is all up to Russia at this point and entirely their choice.
Russia must win in order to achieve the following:
1. Show they are still the #1 power in the Caucasus region and call the shots.
2. Make NATO and the US think twice about how they are going to approach Russia in the future; will NATO be encouraged by a Russian failure or will the back away from the Caucasus if the Russians are victorious.
3. Demonstrate that they will not fail their allies in the region; Armenia, Abkhazia and Ossetia. They've already failed Adjaria.
4. Regain their powerful image that the Chechnya conflict took away and re-build their military's battlefield morale.
We all know that a Russian defeat {essentially a retreat from the Caucasus} will be doom for Armenia. The conflict will already hurt Armenian due to the fact that transit from Russia to Armenia via Georgia will no be closed for indefinitely.
Once they Georgians start experiencing reversals on the battlefield, which they most certainly will, the Abkhazians should strike the Georgian held areas of Abkhazia a regain them.
I'm not sure now is the time to do anything in Javakh {unless Georgian really gets thumped}. Though I know the Armenians in Javakh are armed, organized for the most part and very have very unfriendly relations with the Georgians, they need time to really organize.
Looking at a map, if they Armenians in Javakh, and the Abkhaz strike Georgia and win, Georgia is screwed. The Armenians will then control the flow of Baku-Ceyhan and they could eventually push towards the Black Sea coast and link up with Abkhazia. This will permanently solve the blockade issue, force the Turks out of Georgia {they have an air force base there}, and put a stop to the oil flow unless it is on their terms.
It appears that Russia is now pouring troops, tanks and artillery into the region as well as making bombing runs well inside Georgia. They need to hit the Georgians ten-fold.
The Georgians certainly took the offensive and made some initial gains but they'll no doubt be thrown back by a Russia counter-attack. The Georgians have made their point but now the Russians will make theirs. The US is too bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan to help Georgia and beyond scolding Russia, the Europeans will do nothing. It is all up to Russia at this point and entirely their choice.
Russia must win in order to achieve the following:
1. Show they are still the #1 power in the Caucasus region and call the shots.
2. Make NATO and the US think twice about how they are going to approach Russia in the future; will NATO be encouraged by a Russian failure or will the back away from the Caucasus if the Russians are victorious.
3. Demonstrate that they will not fail their allies in the region; Armenia, Abkhazia and Ossetia. They've already failed Adjaria.
4. Regain their powerful image that the Chechnya conflict took away and re-build their military's battlefield morale.
We all know that a Russian defeat {essentially a retreat from the Caucasus} will be doom for Armenia. The conflict will already hurt Armenian due to the fact that transit from Russia to Armenia via Georgia will no be closed for indefinitely.
Once they Georgians start experiencing reversals on the battlefield, which they most certainly will, the Abkhazians should strike the Georgian held areas of Abkhazia a regain them.
I'm not sure now is the time to do anything in Javakh {unless Georgian really gets thumped}. Though I know the Armenians in Javakh are armed, organized for the most part and very have very unfriendly relations with the Georgians, they need time to really organize.
Looking at a map, if they Armenians in Javakh, and the Abkhaz strike Georgia and win, Georgia is screwed. The Armenians will then control the flow of Baku-Ceyhan and they could eventually push towards the Black Sea coast and link up with Abkhazia. This will permanently solve the blockade issue, force the Turks out of Georgia {they have an air force base there}, and put a stop to the oil flow unless it is on their terms.
Comment