Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

If Russia were already at war with georgia over Abkhazia and S. Ossetia then I think the Russians wouldn't mind seeing a 3rd front open up for the georgians. At the same time though Russia (and other world/regional powers) doesn't want to see Armenia become too powerful, cause then we will have more options, yet I think we should be more focused on how official baku and ankara would react. I think if Armenia got directly involved with helping the Armenians of Javakh, as in we sent our armed forces into Javakh then the azeri scum would most likely take advantage and attack. But all of this is highly theoretical, so let's just support our brothers and sisters in Javakh in any way they need, and lets see what happens in following months.

I think Russia would love to have a common border with Armenia (a country under its thumb). In that case, they would have direct access to Iran and in turn, yield more global influence.
With that said, if a war breaks out, not only would Russia give Armenia its blessing to open up a third front, but it will activiy help in the struggle.
This logic also applies to Iran whose interests lie with Russia and conversely, against NATO candidate, Georgia.

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

This logic also applies to Iran whose interests lie with Russia and conversely, against NATO candidate, Georgia.

Incidentally, Georgian-Iranian relations don't look so well according to this article from 2 months ago

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Iran can use Georgia’s vulnerability if Saakashvili continues pushing pro-West policy

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ During past several years, relations between Iran and Georgia tensed periodically over a number of foreign-policy circumstances. However, they remained unnoticeable and never transformed into open confrontation, according to an Armenian expert.

“With Mikhail Saakashvili coming to power, Tbilisi and Tehran have experienced various political and diplomatic problems,” Eduard Abrahamyan, director of Mitq analytical center, writes in “Current stage of Iranian-Georgian” article.

“The latest scandal burst out when Georgia, demonstrating its devotion to the United States, detained members of Iranian diplomatic mission in January, accusing them of holding nuclear talks with Russia in the Georgian territory. At that time, official Tehran urged immediate release of its citizens and threatened Georgia with de jure recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence,” the article says.

“Another factor is delivery of Iranian gas to Georgia. Iran can take advantage of Georgia’s vulnerability if Saakashvili goes on pushing pro-West policy. Investment agreements can also be used as a tool of pressure. In aspiration to engage in resolution of conflict in the Caucasus, Iran can watch the issue in the light of U.S. increasing U.S. influence and its allies in Georgia and Azerbaijan,” it says.

From http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26570

[ARAKH]

Re: Bad News: War between Georgia and South Ossetia likely

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[Federate]

Re: Bad News: War between Georgia and South Ossetia likely

My Terrain, we already have a thread on the Georgia and South Ossetia conflict. Before opening up a new thread everytime you want to post something, could you take 2 seconds of your time and search the forum for a thread where your info would be suitable to post in? Thanks.

I found one for you on the topic of Georgia and South Ossetia: http://forum.armenianclub.com/showthread.php?t=11207

[crusader1492]

Re: Bad News: War between Georgia and South Ossetia likely

I'll move it for him and we can continue the discussion in that thread...

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Originally posted by MyTerrain:

http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26791

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The threat of war between Georgia and its breakaway region of South Ossetia is becoming increasingly real, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.

The conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia has intensified after the rebel region’s territory was shelled late on Friday and early on Saturday, as a result of which six people were killed and 13 wounded. South Ossetia accused Georgian forces of shelling its territory while Georgia blamed the separatists for provoking armed clashes.

"The situation in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict area, which sharply aggravated on August 1-2 as a result of mass mortar shelling of residential quarters in Tskhinvali, which claimed human lives, remains extremely explosive. The threat of large-scale combat operations between Georgia and South Ossetia is becoming ever more real," the ministry said on its web site.

South Ossetia declared its independence from Georgia following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Hundreds died in the bloody conflict that followed. The pro-Western Georgian leadership has said it is determined to bring the region, along with another breakaway republic, Abkhazia, back under central control.

South Ossetian authorities on Sunday accused Georgia of moving its troops close to the separatist region’s borders, saying that an artillery battalion and two mortar batteries from the 4th motorized brigade of the Georgian Defense Ministry had started movement from the army base in Georgia’s eastern town of Gori towards the separatist republic’s capital, Tskhinvali.

Georgia rejected the reports as being untrue.

South Ossetia leader Eduard Kokoity said on Saturday he was ready to mobilize men in the separatist republic and take volunteers from other Caucasus republics to fight Georgia.

In its statement, Russia’s Foreign Ministry also urged both conflicting parties to show restraint and prevent the use of force in the conflict area.

"The parties should act in the spirit of goodwill and focus their efforts on settling the crisis situation and prevent its recurrences," the ministry said.

According to the ministry, it is important to resume the negotiation process in the format of the Mixed Control Commission for the solution of the South Ossetian conflict and hold extraordinary working meetings between representatives of the conflicting parties, RIA Novosti reports.

[crusader1492]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

I'd like to hear some thoughts about possible "silver-linings" if war between Russia/South Ossetia and Georgia becomes a reality.

The first though that comes to mind is that a resounding Tblisi defeat would echo loudly to the rest of GUAM countries who might think of solving their "territorial problem" by force.
I suppose the opposite is true too (i.e. a Tblisi victory would embolden the likes of Azerbaijan)

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

The first though that comes to mind is that a resounding Tblisi defeat would echo loudly to the rest of GUAM countries who might think of solving their "territorial problem" by force.
I suppose the opposite is true too (i.e. a Tblisi victory would embolden the likes of Azerbaijan)

I agree. Azerbaijan is studying Tiflis' every move... we saw this by its recent planned acquisition of those Israeli Hermes spy drones. Georgia bought them and used them and now Azerbaijan is going to do the same. I also read in an article not so long ago that Azerbaijan is ready to send "reinforcements" to Georgia in the case of war.

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Georgia and S Ossetia to hold talks

Georgian and South Ossetian officials have agreed to hold direct talks on Thursday for the first time in a decade amid tensions in the mountain province.

"There is an agreement to hold a meeting in Tskhinvali on August 7," Marina Salukvadze, the reintegration minister's spokeswoman said, referring to the capital of unrecognised South Ossetia.

In a separate development, Georgia's foreign ministry said the Georgian deputy foreign minister will meet his Russian counterpart in Moscow later this week to discuss the situation in South Ossetia.

The move comes after a senior Russian diplomat warned Moscow would defend Russian citizens living in South Ossetia, while a South Ossetian official said militias in the region were preparing for war.

Children evacuated

South Ossetia has evacuated hundreds of women and children to Russia over the past few days after six people were killed on Friday by sniper and mortar fire from Georgian positions, the breakaway province's government said.

Jonah Hull, Al Jazeera's correspondent in North Ossetia, said many of the women and children seeking shelter and safety are situated around the city of Vladikavkaz.

"They're being housed in school and college buildings, the schools vacated of course for the summer holidays.

"They're getting pretty basic care, and simply don't know how long they'll be here," he said.

Georgia has denied readying for war and said there is no major evacuation.

Russian support

South Ossetia broke away from the rest of Georgia after the Soviet collapse of 1991 in a conflict that killed thousands of people.

Russia has given the separatist province diplomatic and economic support, including granting citizenship to most of its residents.

"If events develop in the worst possible way, with the use of force, Russia will not be able to stand by, seeing as Russian citizens live in South Ossetia," Yury Popov, the Russian ambassador at large, said.

Tensions between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia and another breakaway Georgian region, Abkhazia, have soared in recent months since Moscow announced it was boosting ties with the separatists.

Meanwhile, South Ossetian officials said militia volunteers from southern Russia were beginning to arrive in the separatist province in preparation for a possible conflict.

Dmitry Medoyev, a spokesman for South Ossetia's leadership, said in Moscow: "We are getting offers of help from the north Caucasus and from the Cossacks of southern Russia."

Medoyev also said that South Ossetia could block oil shipments through Georgia in the event of conflict, without giving further details.

From http://english.aljazeera.net/news/eu...351536287.html

[Federate]

Re: Georgian-South Ossetian conflict

Georgia to start war against South Ossetia by September

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Georgia will start war against South Ossetia by September, said Eduard Kokoyty, the South Ossetian President.

"We have irrefutable evidence that large-scale operations will be launched by September. Saakashvili's plan is being developed," he said, RIA Novosti reports.

From http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=26816