Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

[Mos]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

nabucco pipeline is first thing we are blowing up if azeris attack

[KanadaHye]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

Russia would have no issues with Armenia blowing up that pipeline....

[Mos]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

And it's located not that far away from the Karabakh border, and in fact that is why the northern portion of Karabakh is well armed, for that purpose. This is one of reasons Azeris are hesitant to attack, because we would devastate the energy projects that give them (well Aliyev in particular) so much money. Given Azerbaijan attacked first, everybody would be mad at them for ruining this "important" project by starting a war...I wouldn't mind also shooting a missile at their oilfields if they get to out of hand.

[KanadaHye]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

And it's located not that far away from the Karabakh border, and in fact that is why the northern portion of Karabakh is well armed, for that purpose. This is one of reasons Azeris are hesitant to attack, because we would devastate the energy projects that give them (well Aliyev in particular) so much money. Given Azerbaijan attacked first, everybody would be mad at them for ruining this "important" project by starting a war...I wouldn't mind also shooting a missile at their oilfields if they get to out of hand.

Looks like that strategy might become reality in the future.


Enough gas for Nabucco, so build it -EU energy chief

VIENNA Feb 3 (Reuters) - Stakeholders in the Nabucco gas pipeline must be bold and press ahead with the 7.9 billion euro ($11 billion) project because there are enough supplies to fill it, the European Union's energy commissioner told a newspaper.

Nabucco, part of the EU's effort to diversify its natural gas supplies and reduce reliance on Russia, is intended to bring up to 31 billion cubic metres of gas annually from the Caspian region to an Austrian hub via Turkey and the Balkans. It aims to open in 2015.

"It is clear that there is a certain risk. But if you want to try and make profits without risk, well that doesn't work," EU Commissioner Guenther Oettinger was quoted as saying in an interview with Austria's Die Presse published on Thursday.

He said he was sure the Vienna-based consortium would make a final investment decision on the pipeline this year.

The consortium has said it needs to make sure gas supplies are fixed before it makes this decision -- which is essential for construction to begin in 2012.

But potential supplier countries like Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have signalled that they want the consortium to take the first step and decide on financing before concrete supply agreements can be secured.

Nabucco's shareholders are Austria's OMV (OMVV.VI: Quote), Hungary's MOL (MOLB.BU: Quote), Romania's Transgaz (TGNM.BX: Quote), Bulgaria's Bulgargaz, Turkey's Botas and Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE: Quote).

Oettinger said Nabucco's partners should try to find a way out of this chicken-and-egg situation because the supplier countries had done their part towards realising the project.

"Now everything is prepared so that the companies can make their investment decision.

"...I have great respect for the courage and openness of the governments of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. I believe therefore that OMV and also the others must and can move forward boldly."

Nabucco aims to transport its first gas from northern Iraq and Azerbaijan in 2015 with supplies from Turkmenistan coming later.

Azerbaijan last month committed to providing Europe with gas, whereas talks with Turkmenistan are not as advanced. [ID:nLDE70E07P] (Reporting by Sylvia Westall, editing by Anthony Barker)

http://af.reuters.com/article/energy...110203?sp=true

[Eddo211]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

And it's located not that far away from the Karabakh border, and in fact that is why the northern portion of Karabakh is well armed, for that purpose. This is one of reasons Azeris are hesitant to attack, because we would devastate the energy projects that give them (well Aliyev in particular) so much money. Given Azerbaijan attacked first, everybody would be mad at them for ruining this "important" project by starting a war...I wouldn't mind also shooting a missile at their oilfields if they get to out of hand.

Nabucco pipeline is financed by European investment banks with shares held by several countries. Targeting the pipeline (even after Azeris attack) will reduce support for Armenians in the international community (Europe, USA) and will only hurt Turkey in energy sector and just monitory to Azerbaijan.

The only effective way to cause major damage or destruction of the three Azeri off shore oil fields (legal targets) is to run a bombing mission since they are well protected. If successful a defeat of Azerbaijan is sure to follow. This will not be easy since we don't have the best platform to accomplish this, however still possible with a daring coordinated mission using our SU-25s (I have a plan ).

[Mos]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

We could always cover up targeting the pipeline, it's war after all and we could say that we were aiming other targets and the pipeline hit was an accident. Plus international community would be more upset at Azerbaijan for starting the war, than Armenia for "by accident" hitting the pipelines.

[KanadaHye]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

South Stream chief seeks EU level playing field

The European Union should create a level playing field among the various projects to bring gas to the continent along new routes, the head of the Russian-backed South Stream pipeline has urged.

Marcel Kramer also forcefully rejected critics’ claims that one of South Streams’s primary purposes was to frustrate Nabucco, a rival gas project backed by €200m in EU funding that hopes to transport gas from the Caspian basin to Europe.



“We are not asking for subsidies. But when it comes to access to financing, permitting and regulatory processes ... it would be important to know that the approach by the European authorities is non-discriminatory for the two projects,” Mr Kramer told the Financial Times ahead of Friday’s landmark EU energy summit.

“If you say, well the only reason [for South Stream] is that there are certain people who want to frustrate Nabucco then I would say this is definitely not true. Besides, it would mean that if Nabucco comes to a halt we will also give up – that is not how it works, we are not competing projects.”

The EU’s determination to lessen its dependency on Russian gas, which accounts for about a quarter of EU demand, has spawned a variety of proposals to open up the so-called Southern Corridor in order to tap gas in the Caspian basin and Middle East.

The competition is entering a crucial phase, with Azerbaijan expected to make a supply decision in the coming weeks, which could prove decisive in getting the €7.9bn Nabucco pipeline off the ground.

But the backers of South Stream, which many energy analysts view as a direct challenger to Nabucco, are also pressing ahead with their plan to construct a pipeline under the Black Sea, avoiding Ukraine.

About 80 per cent of Russian gas exports to Europe are currently routed via Ukraine, a situation that proved dangerous in 2009 when a dispute between Moscow and Kiev led to the interruption of supplies to south-east Europe.

South Stream, a joint venture between Russia’s Gazprom and Italy’s Eni, is initiating environmental impact and feasibility studies with a view to making a final investment decision in 2015. Gazprom remains in talks with France’s EDF about it joining the South Stream consortium.

Mr Kramer declined to specify a price tag for the pipeline, which has a capacity of 63bn cubic metres a year, saying only that the total onshore and offshore bill would be within a range of €10bn-€20bn.

South Stream’s chief said fears that Europe would be flooded with gas for which there was currently no demand were misplaced, as the pipeline would only gradually build up from 2015 to its maximum capacity in line with customer demand.

Much of the gas flowing through South Stream would initially be gas that is currently routed through Russia’s existing export pipeline network.

He insisted that economics would determine whether the pipeline was constructed, not political factors as some critics have claimed.

“You couldn’t build a decent business case for South Stream just on the rationale ... of blocking or frustrating Nabucco – that’s totally unrealistic ... It would imply that if Nabucco wasn’t there we would stop South Stream – that’s unthinkable,” he said.

“Russia has many projects to spend its money on and would not spend it on a pipeline system that might not be economical,” he said.

Urging Brussels to recognise South Stream’s potential contribution to greater gas supply route diversity, Mr Kramer said the project deserved to be treated on a par with the other EU-backed projects.

“This is an argument that we have tried to put on the table and the good news is that I see more recognition of that today than was the case a few months ago,” Mr Kramer said.

Russia has already signed a series of political agreements with countries along South Stream’s proposed route, including Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Slovenia.

The US ambassador to Italy last month raised the possibility of a merger of South Stream and Nabucco, but Mr Kramer gave the idea short shrift.

“With regard to suggestions as to merging the projects, first of all South Stream is commercially viable in its own right and secondly any decisions on co-operation are for the investors together to take and I see no such initiative,” he said.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6e68a4e-3...#axzz1D053lRkn

[KanadaHye]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

This picture says it all... looks like we need to take Western Armenia back for sure

[Mos]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

It would be so much cheaper to have that pipeline through Armenia, but of course because most of the world wants to screw Armenia, they will pay much more to isolate us...

[Joseph]

Re: Nabucco Gas Pipeline Deal Agreed

Good News. On another note, BP is also slowly divesting from Azerbaijan as they have already reached peak oil and gas production and the remaining reserves are miniscule. The game is almost up for Azerbaijan

http://centralasianewswire.com/Turkmenistan/BP-doubles-Nabucco-cost-estimates/viewstory.aspx?id=3339

BP doubles Nabucco cost estimates


BP this week doubled its cost estimates to $19B for the proposed Nabucco pipeline
Tuesday, February 22, 2011 - Project planners of the long-delayed Nabucco pipeline project to transport primarily Central Asian natural gas to Europe faced more bad news this week from a British Petroleum (BP) assessment almost doubling the cost of the venture.

The proposed 2,000-mile pipeline is eagerly sought by the EU to lessen its dependency on Russian gas, by taking as much as 31 billion cubic meters a year from the Caspian region via Turkey and eastern Europe to a hub in Austria.

Turkmenistan, a prospective key supplier in the project, also wishes to wean itself off the Russian grip on its exports.

But now the cost estimate put forward by the project’s European backers looks to be far below current reality.

The European energy consortium of companies behind the Nabucco project estimated the project’s cost at $10.8 billion.

But oil giant BP which has been heavily involved in energy projects in the Caspian region said the cost to construct the pipeline could be as high as $19 billion, the British Guardian newspaper reported on Sunday.

BP attributes its own high estimate on surging global commodity prices. The newspaper noted the price of iron ore, a major constituent of steel pipelines, has risen by around 50 percent over the last 12 months.

A top manager at Deloitte said the high costs of the project case serious doubts on the viability of the project.

"The European commission supports the Nabucco project, as it helps reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas. But the economics of the project are in the balance,” the Guardian cited Graham Sadler, managing director of petroleum services at Deloitte as saying.

“It's difficult launching and financing an infrastructure megaproject into a gas market which already has access to competitively priced supplies of gas. There have also been issues with commodity prices and with the resource base that would underpin gas supplies," Sadler said.

The bad news is only the latest to dog the project.

Work on constructing the Nabucco pipeline has been delayed over Europe’s failure to land solid supply commitments from Turkmenistan and other potential partners.

It is also competing against two smaller trans-European network projects also on the drawing board.

Energy experts doubt whether Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iraq, whose gas fields are mainly undeveloped, will be able to provide even a small portion of the volume of gas Nabucco is intended to pump for the first few years.

Nabucco is scheduled to go on-stream in 2015. Preparations for the pipeline began in 2002.