Oil/gas

[Haykakan]

While the economic importance of oil and gas has diminished over time, these natural resources are still very important factors in economics and geostrategic decision making. In this thread we can discuss topics relating to these important natural resources. I will begin with the following article.

RUSSIA TURKEY AND THE NEW GREEK SIRTAKI

20.05.2015 Author: F. William Engdahl

Column: Economics
Region: Europe

The European Union has an uncanny knack for shooting itself in the
foot these days. Under strong pressure from a Russo-phobic Washington
administration and various Russo-phobic EU governments, Brussels last
year decided to take steps to block the bilateral agreements between
Russia's state Gazprom and EU countries such as Greece and Bulgaria
to buy gas from a new Russian pipeline that was to have been called
South Stream, the southern counterpart to the Gazprom-Germany North
Stream line.

For the neoconservatives in the Obama State Department and Pentagon,
that would have forged far too strong EU-Russia economic ties that
would significantly weaken America's ability to blackmail the EU. The
EU Commission is brazenly violating all legal precepts by trying to
enforce, retroactively, new laws that they claim Gazprom has violated.

Further they forced the weak government of Bulgaria last year to back
out of their Gazprom contract.

Washington's Russo-phobes were gloating as they fantasized about
getting a nuclear deal with Russia's ally Iran that could woo Teheran
to double-cross Moscow and sell Iranian gas from South Pars, the
world's largest gas field, via another pipeline through to Iran's
city of Bazargan at the border with Turkey where it would transit
Turkey on to Greece and Italy.

Unlike the failed US Nabucco gas project which lacked gas, the Persian
Pipeline, were Iran to be foolish enough to let Washington control it,
would have gas, lots of it to weaken Russia's hold on EU gas markets
that were previously supplied via Gazprom via older Ukraine pipelines.

Putin calls EU bluff

As we noted at the time last December, Russian President Vladimir
Putin caught the EU by surprise when he announced cancellation of
the South Stream Gazprom EU project during a visit in Turkey with
President Erdogan. There Putin proposed instead an alternative that
would pipe Russia's gas through Turkey to the door of EU member
Greece. There different EU states could "take it or leave it." The
advantage for Gazprom and Russia is that they would not be responsible
for construction of the needed EU pipelines.

When he announced the decision, he stated bluntly, "If Europe doesn't
want to realize this, then it means it won't be realized. We will
redirect the flow of our energy resources to other regions of the
world. We couldn't get necessary permissions from Bulgaria, so we
cannot continue with the project. We can't make all the investment
just to be stopped at the Bulgarian border. Of course, this is the
choice of our friends in Europe." South Stream would have provided
secure delivery to southern EU countries including Bulgaria, Hungary,
Austria, Italy, Croatia and also Serbia. It would avoid the current
transit pipelines running through Ukraine.

Now less than six months later Russia and Turkey have completed the
landmark deal to begin deliveries of Gazprom Russian gas via a new
"Turkish Stream" pipeline into and across Turkey through a pipeline
now in construction. Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced on May 7
that, "An agreement has been made on the beginning of exploitation
and deliveries of [Russian] gas along the Turkish Stream in December
2016." The statement came following Miller's meeting earlier in the
day with Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yıldız.

The new pipeline will travel through Turkey to a gas hub on the
Turkish-Greek border for further distribution to European customers.

A geopolitical cherry on top

And only minutes after the successful Russia-Turkish agreement, Putin,
reported to be a master chess player, made a master geopolitical chess
move into the European Union disaster that is called the Eurozone.

Greek news outlet, Capital.gr, reported that the very same day
Miller's Turkey Gazprom deal was finalized, Putin had an apparently
very cordial phone chat with Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras.

After the talk, Putin's office released a statement that Putin had
told Tsipras that Russia would be willing to extend money to Greece
in return for Greek participation in the Turkish Stream project into
the EU. The Kremlin statement said, "In that context, the Russian side
confirmed its willingness to consider the issue of extending financing
to state and private companies that will cooperate in the project."

In Tsipras' April 8 meeting with Putin Russia denied it had made
a deal on energy; that all changed on May 7 after Turkey finalized
Turkish Stream

After Tsipras' talks with Putin in Moscow on April 8, the Kremlin
spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, issued a denial of Der Spiegel reports
that the two had come to an agreement in which Moscow would advance
the cash-desperate Greek government with an immediate â~B¬5 billion
cash advance from Russia based on expected future profits linked
to the pipeline. The Greek energy minister said at the time that
Athens would repay Moscow after 2019, when the pipeline is expected
to start operating.

That was on April 8. Flash forward to May 7 and the finalization
of the Russia-Turkish Stream deal, and it seems now that there is
also a Russia-Greece deal to advance Athens the sizeable cash sum,
just before Athens must come up with large sums to repay IMF and
EU loans in order to get more senseless EU and ECB "support." The
difference was clearly the finalization of the Turkish Stream. Now
EU bureaucrats in Brussels have new gas pains as Putin puts a Greek
cherry atop Moscow's Turkish geopolitical deal on gas.

If the Russia cash advance to Tsipras comes to pass, not only will
Athens be able to dance a Sirtaki. This time it will be a dance
in which the role of Zorba is played by a Russian, Vladimir Putin,
not the Mexican, Anthony Quinn.

Wolfgang Schauble, Angela Merkel, EU Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker all will have three options. They can decide to stand on the
sidelines and clap to the sensuous rhythms of the new Sirtaki. They
can join in the dance by refusing Washington blackmail on renewing
EU economic sanctions against Russia. Or they can go on to boycott
the dance and sink deeper into a new crisis of the Euro.

The ongoing panic selloff in German bond markets over recent days
suggests it might be wise for the Berlin government to consider an
entire new choreography for its European Grand Strategy. The old
Atlantic NATO dance is rapidly becoming a Danse Macabre for Germany
and for Europe. Putin's Sirtaki would be far more fun for Europe and
the world.

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds
a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling
author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine
"New Eastern Outlook".

First
appeared:http://journal-neo.org/2015/05/20/ru...greek-sirtaki/

[londontsi]

Re: Oil/gas

The US is not asleep.
The devious operations directorate has already started destabilization of Macedonia.
More pipeline wars?

[Haykakan]

Re: Oil/gas

The US is not asleep.
The devious operations directorate has already started destabilization of Macedonia.
More pipeline wars?

Got any links to a story or article?

[londontsi]

Re: Oil/gas

Got any links to a story or article?

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150520/1022369299.html

Macedonia Unrest: West Giving Balkan Country a Lesson of 'Democracy'

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150521/1022421659.html

After Russia's Stroitransgaz announced it will build a gas pipeline across Macedonia, Skopje has come under heavy criticism from Washington, Brussels and numerous US-funded NGOs, which blasted the government for violating "European values."

It looks like the West is going to give Macedonia a lesson of "democracy," noted American writer and researcher Michael Collins, drawing a parallel between the current situation in the country and dramatic events which took place in Libya, Syria, and Ukraine......

The Fifth Column: Western NGOs Accused of Financing Macedonian Uprising

There is increasing concern about potential outside influence involved in recent political demonstrations in Macedonia following reports that students were offered up to $1,500 by an activist group to come up with the best ideas on how to protest against the country's government.

The concern about overseas hands being involved in sparking protests in the country has been heightened by recent reports in Macedonian media, which claimed that activist group, Canvas (Centre for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies), had sent out a memo to Macedonian students encouraging them to come up with effective protest ideas.

The leaked memo, sent three weeks before last Sunday's mass demonstrations against Nikola Gruevski's government, purportedly shows Canvas offering students who could come up with the best protest ideas for a grant of $1,500....


.

[londontsi]

Re: Oil/gas

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/05/20/macedonia-muslim-uprising-newest-flashpoint-in-east-west-pipeline-fight/

Macedonia's Muslim uprising seen as flashpoint in East-West energy war

SKOPJE, Macedonia – A bloody confrontation this month between Macedonian police and Albanian Muslims has touched off widespread protests and threatens to ignite a geopolitical powder keg whose effects could be felt well beyond the impoverished Balkan nation, warn analysts.

More than 20 people, including eight police officers, were killed in the May 9 police raid and ensuing riots in the northern city of Kumanovo’s ethnic Albanian neighborhoods, where Skopje officials say Muslim groups are training terrorists and seeking to secede. On Sunday, tens of thousands of protesters waving Macedonian and Albanian flags marched in Skopje in a powerful show of ethnic unity against a reeling and scandal-scarred government. Experts say the raid and ensuing protests could imperil the regime of Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski.

"If the conflict escalates in Macedonia, it could produce a domino effect, transferred to the Balkans, or the other former Yugoslav republics in which the security situation is bad,” said Ivan Babanovski, a former Macedonian intelligence officer and a professor at Skopje’s Faculty of Security.

World powers -- including the U.S., Europe, Russia and Turkey -- are monitoring the complex situation closely, issuing warnings and pointing fingers......

.

[Haykakan]

Re: Oil/gas

Thanks for the articles! I would imagine it will not take much to launch this whole thing out of control. Al these instigations can accumulate into something much greater but perhaps that is just what the aholes in charge want. If ISIS succeeds with its formation of the state and control of oil then the Balkans are indeed next. This can very easily lead to the reemergence of the ottoman empire or a similar situation with the turk taking the leading role. Perhaps this is the plan all along. I see ISIS as a USA proxy which is currently being used to force Iraq in accepting a permanent military presence in that country. This situation however can be used by turkey to hijack this movement and recreate its empire. With or without the wishes of the USA I see this as a real possibility and a real threat to Armenia and all the other states in the region. I do not think it is in USA interest to recreate the ottoman empire but it has been made abundantly clear that USA policy has not made USA interests its priority. We are living in very dynamic times with change all around us but unfortunately it does not look like most of the changes are for the good.

[Haykakan]

Re: Oil/gas

Here is another article I found.

US Has Launched A New Assault Against Russia
•From: Mihran Keheyian <[email protected]>
•Date: Fri, 22 May 2015 14:59:58 +0000 (UTC)

US HAS LAUNCHED A NEW ASSAULT AGAINST RUSSIA

22.05.2015 Author: Petr Lvov

Column: Politics
Region: USA in the World

If someone had the impression that the visit of Secretary of State
John Kerry to the town of Sochi, followed by negotiations with
Victoria Nuland, his deputy in Moscow, could be regarded as first
steps in the direction of normalization of US-Russian relations,
they would be deeply mistaken. In short, Washington, particularly the
Obama administration, is trying to solve its problems at the expense
or rather with the help of Russia, to ensure the victory of Hillary
Clinton in the upcoming elections. However, the United States continues
to apply pressure on Russia, using a variety of different strategies.

Special attention is now paid to Syria and the weakened regime of
Bashar al-Assad in the face of a new armed assault against Damascus.

The attempts to trade the support of Syria for a number of concessions
on Ukraine and Crimea allegedly made by John Kerry failed. Then
Americans attempted blackmail, which is the strategy of choice for
Washington in the countries that resist its dictate. On May 19 the
Russian embassy in Syria was shelled by militants, presumably Jaysh
al-Islam, which resulted in one of the shells exploding in the main
building of the diplomatic mission. Fortunately, there was nobody
there in the room destroyed by the explosion. Immediately after the
attack the State Department swiftly condemned this act of terrorism.

But we all are well aware of the fact that the "southern front"
operating in the suburbs of the Syrian capital is controlled by Jordan
with a certain amount of US assistance, unlike the "northern front"
guided by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The shelling of the Russian embassy
- is clearly a signal to Russia that it should abandon its support
of the Syrian regime.

The White House continues to exploit the Iranian theme to dissuade
Moscow supplying the Islamic Republic with S-300 air defense systems.

But America didn't even try to propose a fair exchange. Yet, Washington
think tanks are well of aware of the fact that Moscow will no longer
buy any of America's fraudulent tricks, as happened a few years ago
with the introduction of sanctions against Iran and the freezing of
the contract to supply the S-300s. The US goal is clear and simple -
to sow doubts in Tehran about the principal position of Russia on Iran,
thus pushing Iranians to unnecessary concessions in discussions on
the Iranian nuclear program.

Another old trick has been the alleged desire of the GCC countries,
including Saudi Arabia, to launch a full-scale cooperation with
Russia, particularly in the coordination of global oil prices. The
emissaries of the Arabian monarchies one by one have been visiting
the Russian capital with handfuls of promises. Naturally, none of
those were planned to be implemented, as they are designed to lure
Russia's leadership into a trap. But this lesson has already been
learned as well, especially in the times when the former Emir of
Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani and Saudi Prince Bandar were
eager to promise billions of dollars of investment in the Russian
economy, the purchase of Russian weapons, and lucrative contracts,
yet no concrete steps followed.

Now a new player is being used - Turkey, which seems to be seriously
offended by Russia's position on the Armenian Genocide. Turkey, for
which the question of recognition or non-recognition of the genocide
is the most painful of all, instantly responded to the fact that on 24
April, Vladimir Putin visited the Tsitsernakaberd Memorial, built in
memory of the genocide victims of 1915. Turkish officials said that
there could be no justification for this visit, three days later,
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan "remembered" events regarding
the Crimea. The Turkish leader said that Russia should account for
their actions in Crimea and Ukraine before condemning the massacre
of Armenians by the Ottomans in 1915.

Washington was eager to request even more anti-Russian statements
from Turkey, including those relating to the Crimea, that followed
one after the other. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, said
that the recent unofficial Turkish delegation that was visiting the
Crimea, found signs of human rights violations. Such an assessment
on the situation on the ground from Cavusoglu looks rather strange,
since they contradict statements made by members of the delegation
themselves. On April 29 the head of the unofficial delegation Mehmet
Uskyul said that he is satisfied with the treatment of Crimean Tatars
on the peninsula. Even more dramatic statements were made by Turkey's
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on May 14 at a meeting of NATO Foreign
Ministers. According to this Turkish official "The illegal annexation
of the Crimea can not be tolerated". The Turkish prime minister also
urged NATO states to support Ukraine so it could better ensure the
security of its own people. Ahmet Davutoglu went as far as stressing
that NATO states should not forget about the suffering of the people
of the Crimea...

Ankara canceled a regular meeting of the Russian-Turkish Cooperation
Council and the arrival of Sergey Lavrov to Antalya that was scheduled
on May 16. Formally - under the pretext of difficulties caused by the
forthcoming parliamentary elections, after which a new government
will be formed. But all that buzz can negatively affect a project
of fundamental importance for Russia - the "Turkish Stream", which
couldn't make the United States any more happier.

Another front of this anti-Russian campaign was opened in Macedonia.

The United States is actively advancing a possible regime change
in Skopje to counter Russian influence. It's also important to note
that the "Turkish Stream" would stretch across Macedonian soil. That's
what Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week about those
events: "Objectively speaking, the events in Macedonia are unfolding
against the background of the government's refusal to join the policy
of sanctions against Russia and the vigorous support Skopje gave to
the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project, to which many people oppose,
both in Brussels and across the ocean. So we can't help but feeling
that there is some sort of connection here."

In fact, Washington has tried to stage a "color revolution" by
organizing mass demonstrations launched by the local opposition. Even
the country's Albanian minority, which has nothing in common with
Macedonian opposition came out to the streets to support rallies in
the capital, Skopje. For Moscow this looks all too familiar. Events
are moving in the same direction as they were in Ukraine in 2013 and
2014, when the corrupt regime of Viktor Yanukovych was ousted during
mass demonstrations organized by the United States and Poland.

So the latest maneuvers of American diplomacy - is nothing but
a smokescreen designed to hide the true intentions of the Obama
administration. Washington's strategic goal remains the same - to
weaken Russia by all means necessary and break it apart from those
countries which are engaged in cooperation with Moscow. Therefore
there's no trusting US promises or even reaching deals with
them. All this smooth-talking is a mere trap in the hope that
Russian pro-Western liberals might convince President Putin that the
White House is sincere. But US think tanks have missed one thing -
"Ukrainian lessons" have not been lost on the Kremlin.

Peter Lvov, Ph.D in political science, exclusively for the online
magazine "New Eastern Outlook"

First
appeared:http://journal-neo.org/2015/05/22/us...inst-russia-2/

[Gevz]

Re: Oil/gas

West is trash and evil.

In order for the world to be at peace we need the following to happen.

Turkey to be wiped of the map.
Saudia Arabia to be wiped of the map.
Qatar to be wiped of the map.
Israhell to be wiped of the map.
U.S.A to be turned into a concrete parking lot.

The west is going to push the Bear so far until it finally snaps and when that happens it will bomb everything in its way.

[lampron]

Re: Oil/gas

The west is going to push the Bear so far until it finally snaps and when that happens it will bomb everything in its way.

Russia is self sufficient in energy and food and receives consumer goods from China, so the sanctions are not having a great impact as they did with Yugoslavia and Iraq

If the West decides to co-operate with Russia, Armenia wins

[Armynia]

Re: Oil/gas

Armenia at least need three players for good balance, West, Russia and Iran.