Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[Artsakh]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

In the big geopolitical picture of the region, laying a wreath at the "Tsitsernakabert" memorial is at the bottom of the list of things to do.

Apres.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

ANALYST: “AFTER ARMENIA IRANIAN PRESIDENT WILL PAY ANOTHER VISIT – TO MOSCOW”

“This year’s activation of the relations between Armenia and Iran signifies one thing: Iran becomes an additional guarantor of Armenia’s independence and sustainable development,’ this is the response of the political analyst Sergey SHAKARYANTS to the question of Panorama.am correspondent about the specific objectives of the visit that Iran’s President paid to Armenia.
According to him, Iran commits itself to some responsibilities which before were performed by Russia. “Eventually, Iran, no matter with or without us, has reached an agreement on the fact that the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline will be expanded and become of export nature,” the analyst said, adding that this is the very reason for Iran’s President Mahmud Akhmadinejad to meet with the Armenian President thrice in this year. ”Following the visit to Armenia, the Iranian President will pay another visit, this time to Moscow. The timetable is currently being specified,” said S.Shakaryants, underlining that during the Moscow visit the factors of the activation of the Armenian-Iranian relationships will be discussed. In the analyst’s opinion, some activation is observed in the Russian-Iranian relations, too. “I see vary active trilateral negotiations and discussions. It’s difficult for me to say what has been specifically discussed in Yerevan, but among such issues could have been, for example, the ways to provide the countries with consumables under the current circumstances of the tense regional situation,” concluded the analyst.

Source: http://www.panorama.am/en/politics/2007/10/23/iran/

Iran to begin gas export to Armenia

Iran's Caretaker Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari says the country's gas exports to Armenia will begin in the next two or three months. Iran has completed the part of the pipeline which is in Iran, Nozari told reporters on the sidelines of a seminar in Tehran on Wednesday. "Armenian officials say the construction of the Armenia part of the pipeline will be completed in the next two or three months," he added. Nozari said Tehran has further reached an agreement with Yerevan to import electricity from Armenia during the summer. In response to a question about the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline, Nozari said it would take some time before the deal is signed, expressing hope that India and Pakistan would resolve the differences over transit fees.

Source: http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id...onid=351020103

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran: Looking to China for New Fighter Jets?



China reportedly has signed a deal to sell Iran 24 J-10 fighters in the next two years, Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported Oct. 22. Though this deal is unconfirmed and hardly a certainty, the prospect of new aircraft for the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) is noteworthy. In the late 1970s, Iran had an exceptionally well-equipped air force compared to others in the region. But since the fall of the shah, Iran's air force has fallen into a desperate state of disrepair. The IRIAF received a windfall of Su-24 Fencer, MiG-29 Fulcrum and Mirage F-1 aircraft courtesy of the fleeing Iraqi air force in 1991, as Saddam Hussein tried to save some of his best aircraft from Operation Desert Storm. A direct Russian sale or two at about the same time fleshed out Iran's fleet, but even then, the Islamic republic's U.S.-built aircraft were suffering.

Aside from the modest purchase of three upgraded Su-25UBT Frogfoot close-air support aircraft from Russia in 2006, it has been well over a decade since the IRIAF has seen a new foreign-built jet fighter. Thus, in this regard alone, the potential Iranian purchase of J-10s from China is noteworthy. The deal has other intriguing aspects for both Tehran and Beijing. The J-10 remains unproven in combat, but it could hold new insights for Iranian aerospace engineers, who are already hard at work copying old U.S. F-5s.

The J-10 reportedly has roots in the now-canceled Israeli Lavi project that was aimed at building an indigenous fighter jet. (When the United States pulled the project's funding in the 1980s, effectively ending the program, Israel began selling some of the research and design work abroad.) The J-10 thus carries with it innovations from both China and Israel -- countries that have, like Iran, struggled with the ambitious undertaking of designing and manufacturing an indigenous fighter aircraft -- with constraints unique to each designing country and different from those faced by either the United States or the Soviet Union. Thus, the aircraft could not only boost the IRIAF's capabilities but also contribute to indigenous design efforts.

Meanwhile, a new partnership with a power outside the region would be a welcome relief for Tehran, which faces strict sanctions from Washington and uncertain ulterior motives from Russia. The partnership could be especially attractive since China might be seeking to establish itself as a reliable and detached business partner in the world defense market, which could translate into a reliable source of parts and support for Tehran -- something Iran has not known in a generation. China, meanwhile, has been moving to export more complex and advanced defense hardware, not just the latest knockoff of old Soviet gear. This includes an arrangement for a different indigenous design -- the FC-1 -- as part of a troubled attempt to sell fighter aircraft to Pakistan. Thus, if the RIA Novosti report proves true, the new cooperation between Tehran and Beijing will be an important benchmark for the export of Chinese fighters.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre....php?id=297297

In related news:

US to speed up stealth fighter delivery



In an effort to bolster the Israel Air Force in the face of Iran's race toward nuclear power, the Pentagon has agreed to move up delivery of its newest stealth fighter to Israel by two years, to as early as 2012, The Jerusalem Post has learned. Last month, the IDF announced plans to purchase a squadron (at least 25 aircraft) of the fifth-generation Joint Strike Fighter. That delivery was expected to commence in 2014. During meetings Defense Minister Ehud Barak held at the Pentagon last week, US defense officials agreed to allow Israel to begin receiving the aircraft as early as 2012, when delivery to the United States Air Force is set to begin.

Eight countries - including Britain, Turkey and Australia - are members of the Joint Strike Fighter project. Israel became a security cooperation participant after paying $20 million in 2003 for access to information accumulated during the jet's development. The jet will be priced at between $50m. and $60m. According to senior defense officials, Barak raised the issue with US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and asked that Israel begin receiving the stealth fighter as soon as it is operationally available. "We asked that for every two jets manufactured for the US, one be manufactured for Israel," a senior defense official said, adding that acquisition of the aircraft would greatly increase Israel's deterrence as Iran races toward nuclear power. "This plane can fly into downtown Teheran without anyone even knowing about it since it can't be detected on radar," the official said.

Barak also succeeded in convincing the Americans to allow Israel to install its own unique technology in the aircraft, until now a major point of contention between the Defense Ministry and the Pentagon, defense officials said. They said the Americans agreed - in principle - to allow Israel to integrate its own technology into the plane, as it had done with other fighter jets it has bought in the past from the US, such as the F-15 and F-16. Also Wednesday, defense officials expressed concern regarding reports in the Russian media that China has signed a deal with Iran for the delivery of two squadrons of J-10 fighter jets, developed by Beijing and based on a model of the Israeli-made Lavi.

They said it was possible that Syria also would buy the aircraft, a move that would greatly enhance its capabilities. The J-10 is based on technology and components sold to China by Israel following the decision to stop development of the Lavi project in the 1980s. According to the Russian Kommersant daily, representatives of the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company said China would deliver the jet by 2010. The contract's value was $1 billion, the paper said. According to the report, the J-10 can use detachable fuel tanks to fly to targets 2,940 kilometers away. If true, it could reach Israel and return to base. Until now, the Russian-made MiG-29 (Fulcrum) has been the Iranian fighter jet with the longest range, 2,100 km.

Source: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Attack Iran and you attack Russia



The barely reported highlight of Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran for the Caspian Sea summit last week was a key face-to-face meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A high-level diplomatic source in Tehran tells Asia Times Online that essentially Putin and the Supreme Leader have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a preemptive attack, perhaps a tactical nuclear strike, against Iran. An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.

But then, as if this were not enough of a political bombshell, came the abrupt resignation of Ali Larijani as top Iranian nuclear negotiator. Early this week in Rome, Larijani told the IRNA news agency that "Iran's nuclear policies are stable and will not change with the replacement of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council [SNSC]." Larijani will keep attending SNSC meetings, now as a representative of the Supreme Leader. He even took time to remind the West that in the Islamic Republic all key decisions regarding the civilian nuclear program are made by the Supreme Leader. Larijani actually went to Rome to meet with the European Union's Javier Solana alongside Iran's new negotiator, Saeed Jalili, a former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), just like President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

In itself, the Putin-Khamenei meeting was extraordinary, because the Supreme Leader rarely receives foreign statesmen for closed talks, even one as crucial as Putin. The Russian president, according to the diplomatic source, told the Supreme Leader he may hold the ultimate solution regarding the endlessly controversial Iranian nuclear dossier. According to IRNA, the Supreme Leader, after stressing that the Iranian civilian nuclear program will continue unabated, said. "We will ponder your words and proposal." Larijani himself had told the Iranian media that Putin had a "special plan" and the Supreme Leader observed that the plan was "ponderable". The problem is that Ahmadinejad publicly denied the Russians had volunteered a new plan.

Iranian hawks close to Ahmadinejad are spinning that Putin's proposal involves Iran temporarily suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for no more United Nations sanctions. That's essentially what International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad ElBaradei has been working on all along. The key issue is what - in practical terms - will Iran get in return. Obviously it's not the EU's Solana who will have the answer. But as far as Russia is concerned, strategically nothing will appease it except a political/diplomatic solution for the Iranian nuclear dossier. US Vice President xxxx Cheney - who even Senator Hillary Clinton now refers to as Darth Vader - must be foaming at the mouth; but the fact is that after the Caspian summit, Iran and Russia are officially entangled in a strategic partnership. World War III, for them, is definitely not on the cards.

Let's read from the same script

The apparent internal controversy on how exactly Putin and the Supreme Leader are on the same wavelength belies a serious rift in the higher spheres of the Islamic Republic. The replacement of Larijani, a realist hawk, by Jalili, an unknown quantity with an even more hawkish background, might spell an Ahmadinejad victory. It's not that simple.

The powerful Ali Akbar Velayati, the diplomatic adviser to the Supreme Leader, said he didn't like the replacement one bit. Even worse: regarding the appalling record of the Ahmadinejad presidency when it comes to the economy, all-out criticism is now the norm. Another former nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, told the Etemad-e Melli newspaper, "The effects of the [UN] sanctions are visible. Our situation gets worse day by day."

Ahmadinejad for the past two months has been placing his former IRGC brothers-in-arms in key posts, like the presidency of the central bank and the Oil, Industry and Interior ministries. Internal repression is rife. On Sunday, hundreds of students protested at the Amir-Kabir University in Tehran, calling for "Death to the dictator". The wily, ultimate pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani, now leader of the Council of Experts and in practice a much more powerful figure than Ahmadinejad, took no time to publicly reflect that "we can't bend people's thoughts with dictatorial regimes".

This week, the Supreme Leader himself intervened, saying, "I approve of this government, but this does not mean that I approve of everything they do." Under the currently explosive circumstances, this also amounts to a political bombshell. As if anyone needed to be reminded, the buck - or rial - stops with the Supreme Leader, whose last wish on earth is to furnish a pretext for the Bush administration to launch World War III. If Ahmadinejad now deviates from a carefully crafted strategic script, the Supreme Leader may simply get rid of him.

Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ26Ak06.html

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran leader supports Iran-Armenia pipeline extension to Europe



Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has described plans to extend the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline to Europe as very promising. "The possibility of extending the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline to Europe is a very good scenario for us, and we will welcome the project," the Iranian leader said in an exclusive interview with Armenian television, aired late on Wednesday. Ahmadinejad, who cut short his planned two-day visit to Armenia on Tuesday, said thorough feasibility studies should be made to extend the project, originally designed to meet Armenian domestic needs with Iranian natural gas. The gas pipeline is currently being tested, the Iranian leader said. The Armenian Energy Ministry has forecast that the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline will be commissioned by early 2009. The first 40 km (24 miles) leg of the pipeline went on stream in March, and the second 141 km (87 miles) leg is currently being built. The pipeline's cost has been estimated at between $220 million and $250 million. During the first stage, Armenia will pump some 400 million cubic meters of gas annually with plans to increase the volume to 2.3 billion cubic meters.

Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20071025/85447966.html

[skhara]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's run above ground like that? And it took so long to just build 40 km?

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's run above ground like that? And it took so long to just build 40 km?

I may be wrong, but I think for the most part the pipeline is above ground. It took very long to build due to political and topographical reasons. As you may know, Moscow was not very happy about the plan between Armenia and Iran because it did not involve Russia. Moscow eased pressure on Armenia only after some concessions were made by Yerevan. Also, the region through which the pipeline runs is very rugged (the picture posted is not that of the pipeline in question).

[Azad]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It's run above ground like that?

It is intentional cause of earthquakes. So are the zig zag twists .... enough for expansion and movements if the ground does move.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran's Air Defense Concerns



Summary

During Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei repeatedly asked for Moscow's assistance in understanding how Israel's air force penetrated Syria's air defenses Sept. 6.

Analysis

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asked Russian President Vladimir Putin several times during their Oct. 16 meeting to have Russian air defense experts help Tehran understand (read: find ways to counter) the means by which Israel penetrated Syria's air defense network in a Sept. 6 raid, according to sources in Hezbollah. Moscow could chose to provide some overt assistance to Tehran, though Iran's badly degraded air defense system -- like Syria's -- likely requires more help than Russia is willing to offer.

That Israeli air force (IAF) raid against Syria remains opaque. In the weeks since it occurred, however, it has become fairly clear that the IAF used a new electronic means to blind Syrian radars, perhaps from as far away as the Mediterranean Sea. Electronic warfare, especially when it comes to the suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD), is nothing new. But most SEAD involves overt jamming that makes it clear that an attack is underway. Recently, it seems both Israel and the United States have been working on more subtle means of electronic deception -- to make the radar unaware that it is being blinded.

This compounds Syria's problem. On top of the already decrepit state of its air defenses, Damascus has no means to compete with Israel in the electronic spectrum. The events of Sept. 6 are similarly troubling to Tehran. Iran, which is purposefully belligerent in its rhetoric, survives by making itself appear too costly to attack. Now, amid a major foreign policy debate in Tehran, the questions Iran has been asking itself since Sept. 6 seem to be becoming more urgent. How much of a deterrent is the Iranian air defense network? If Israel now possesses the electronic means to sidestep the Syrian network, what of the U.S. military's capabilities to carry out a devastating air campaign? These are questions Tehran cannot answer -- much less address -- alone.

To some extent, Iran's air defense problems are quite distinct from Syria's. Iran's aging U.S., European, Chinese and Russian systems present serious problems of integration, maintenance and training. Aside from the recent acquisition of 29 short-range Tor-M1 systems from Russia, Iran's air defense network is in little better shape than its air force. Syria's Soviet-era equipment is old, but at least it has the same design heritage. Ultimately, Iran's mastery of the electronic spectrum is little better than Syria's, and both are in the fundamentally similar position of relying on land-based defenses to hold off the air assaults of a technologically superior enemy.

Therefore, Tehran is turning to Moscow,which knows air defense. Although there is no better time for Iran to turn in that direction, Russia has other issues to consider. For Russia, the question is how to best exploit Iran while the United States is distracted in Iraq -- not how to solve all of Tehran's problems and become a long-time protector of the Persian state. Russia, then, will have to think hard before it makes significant air defense exports to Tehran. The Kremlin may well choose to increase military cooperation with Iran, though the scale and scope of support required to fundamentally alter the air defense dynamic in Tehran's favor probably far outstrips what Moscow is interested in offering.

[...]

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre....php?id=297335

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

On Track for U.S. Collapse



Bush and Cheney are steering the U.S. into a collapse. Only strong public voices by influential people can prevent the coming disaster. We desperately need for men and women who are known to the public and have credibility to speak up in the critical period ahead to avoid catastrophe.

* A few weeks ago, Israel bombed a alleged nuclear facility in Syria. This is a warm-up for an attack on Iran.
* In the last few days, the U.S. unilaterally tightened sanctions on Iran. Russia and China do not support this move.
* A week ago Bush warned Iran that its attainment of nuclear arms would lead to World War III.
* Russia, which has been assisting Iran in its nuclear construction program for decades, regards Western military action against Iran as unacceptable.
* China has been arming Iran with missiles. Its relations with Iran have been improving for years.

We know that Bush and Cheney are capable of pre-emptive attack. We know that Bush will act if he believes he is right no matter what the costs are. In his distorted worldview, Iran with nuclear weapons is a scenario worth any cost to avoid. We know that Bush, Cheney, and Rice have repeatedly warned Iran of meaningful consequences if Iran arms itself with nuclear weapons. We know that their terms in office end in 15 months. These are the critical months. But it is by no means clear that the front-running candidates for office who may replace them hold substantially different views. Hillary Clinton has publicly called for sanctions against Iran and has called Iran a threat to Israel. Why may an unprovoked attack on Iran lead to WWIII and why may it lead to the collapse of the U.S.?

Imagine this scenario. The U.S. encourages Israel to bomb the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran. Russia attempts to restrain an Iranian response but fails. Iran responds in any of many ways, such as launching missiles on Israel, firing on shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, mining the Straits of Hormuz, sending troops into Iraq, or allying its military with Hezbollah and attacking Israel from Lebanon. The U.S., citing Iran’s aggressions (that will be the story), launches a full-scale attack on Iran designed to devastate the country. This attack has actually been planned by the U.S. for years. Syria is unable to maintain neutrality and quickly becomes a battleground between Iran and Israel.

The price of oil by this point has already soared to $200 a barrel. The U.S. begins to use its strategic reserve and to divert Iraqi production. Russia responds by taking steps to prevent its oil production from reaching the U.S. China responds by cutting off its support of the U.S. Treasury market. Venezuela halts oil shipments to the U.S. The first stages of WWIII are economic warfare designed to cripple the U.S. and halt its war-making capacity.

The U.S., unable to finance its deficits and fund its sovereign debt, is forced into raising interest rates drastically in order to borrow. The Fed is forced to print money. An inflationary spiral occurs. Meanwhile the high interest rates and high oil prices, not to mention the shock of a spreading conflict, drive the U.S. economy into severe decline. The U.S. attempts to raise taxes in order to fund itself, further crippling the economy. Gold soars to $1,500–$2,000 an ounce. The U.S. attempts to bolster its military forces. The draft is reinstated. The severity of the emergency allows Bush and Cheney to assume emergency powers and begin a dictatorship. Elections are postponed.

The U.S. collapses.

Unfortunately, even if this scenario does not occur, the position of the U.S. is so precarious that any number of other scenarios equally disastrous lie in wait. This house needs urgently to be put in order or it will fall, and especially if it does not terminate its imperial adventures. The very fact that Bush and Cheney (or any major U.S. political officials) gain by starting WWIII is a terrible indictment of our entire political system. Who can stop this? Who can prevent this? It will only take a few well-placed people to prevent this catastrophe. My guess is 5–20 people could sway public opinion against war or provide enough cover for Congressional dissenters to screw up their courage. Maybe even as few as 3 or 4 influential people could derail the Bush-Cheney train to disaster. They need to speak out at the right times and they must be heard. Previously mute or muted voices simply must speak out. They know who they are. They know that their silence will mean silent approval of a U.S. collapse.

Source: http://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff183.html