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Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

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  • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

    Analysis: West Asian oil for Chinese arms



    A Chinese aviation industry official says the country is introducing a new batch of military equipment to the international market. This includes an FBC2 fighter-bomber, an upgraded version of its JH7A fighter, intended for export. China is now promoting its FBC2 and J10A fighters to Iran. The J10A was officially offered on the overseas market this year, but under the name FC20. The new generation YJ6-2 and C802A anti-ship missiles are also being promoted to Middle East countries including Iran. Sudan is reportedly seeking to acquire FC1 fighters from China. As China faces an ever greater demand for energy, it is importing more crude oil from West Asian countries in recent years. It is also exerting greater political and military influence upon this region through expanded sales of military weapons. The long shadow of Chinese weapons has fallen over all six Gulf countries, and continues to do so. Iran has already become an important source of oil for China, as well as a key target market for China's arms exports.

    Not only does the Iranian military have operational Chinese-made QW1 and FM80 ground-to-air missiles, they are also producing batches of the missiles within their country. Iran seems to have upgraded the QW1, or Mithaq-1, to Mithaq-2. The exterior structure of the newer missile seems to be different from the QW2 portable missiles. The FM80's Iranian name is Shahab Thaqueb. This is the first time for China to export such ground-to-air missiles to another country. As for cooperation between Iran's navy and China's missile industry, it is widely known that Iran has acquired C802 anti-ship missiles from China. Iran has also started manufacturing its own ship-to-ship and land-to-ship versions of these missiles.



    China first exported 200 of the C802 missiles to Iran in 1998. They were later renamed "Noor" by Iran. During the same period of time, the Iranian Navy also imported 10 Houdong (Thondor) class missile fast attack craft, each armed with four units of C802 missiles. A second agreement on naval cooperation was finalized in 2000. According to the agreement between the two countries, Iran will eventually acquire a total of 10 "China Cat" missile fast attack craft, each of which will be fitted with 4 FL-10 serial ship-to-ship missiles produced by Hongdu Group Ltd. Iran will also build more "China Cat" missile fast attack craft indigenously. The Iranian Navy also plans to purchase LY60 ship-to-air missiles.

    In addition to the above programs, the exterior and structure of a number of Iran's other advanced weapon systems seem to connect them with China. For instance, the Iranian edition SHKVAL-E heavy-duty torpedo that made its appearance in recent naval exercises has caught the attention of military observers. Only Russia, Ukraine and China have the technologies to produce this type of torpedo. Kazakhstan had the capability to assemble this torpedo during the Soviet Union years and exported 40 such torpedoes to China. A source from the Russian military industry says that they did not transfer similar production technologies to Iran.

    At the same time it has been exporting large batches of arms to Iran, China has also received huge business opportunities in Iran as well as a stable oil supply. Chinese companies are not only actively involved in the construction of an underground railroad system in Tehran, but are also helping Iran to develop its oil resources. China's oil imports from the Middle East now make up as much as 40 percent of the country's total oil purchases. In the first quarter of 2006, from Iran alone China imported 377,000 barrels of oil per day. China's total imports of oil from Iran in 2005 rose to more than 14 million tons, amounting to a little over 11 percent of China's annual oil imports.



    Solid military cooperation between the two countries has guaranteed a stable trade between China and Iran, which is very much immune to changes in the international situation. Iran has also agreed to supply China with 3 million tons of liquidized natural gas annually over the next 25 years, lifting the total export to 75 million tons. Bilateral trade between Iran and China has reached US$7 billion annually. Other Chinese weapon systems in operational service in the Iranian armed forces include 100 Type 59 tanks, 100 Type 54 122-mm howitzers and 24 J7M fighters. Saudi Arabia has become China's single biggest source of oil supply. Since 1980s, China has been actively promoting military weapons to this country. In 1988, China exported to Riyadh 40-50 1,700-km-ranged DF3 ground-to-ground missiles and 10 sets of towed launchers.

    In 2000, observers of Middle East military affairs said that Saudi Arabia hoped China would help upgrade these missiles so as to enhance their strike accuracy. Pakistan has been promoting Al-Khalid main battle tanks to Saudi Arabia for two consecutive years. It plans to deliver the MBT directly to Riyadh for testing within this year. Last year, two Saudi ground force delegations visited Pakistan and field-tested this MBT. The Al-Khalid MBT specifically targeted at Saudi Arabia is equipped with the thermal imaging system produced by the French SAGEM Company. Saudi Arabia will need at least 150 of the tanks, totaling around US$600 million. This Al-Khalid MBT was jointly developed by Pakistan and China. An authoritative source from Islamabad says that the promotion of the K8 trainer to Saudi Arabia is what China and Pakistan feel most confident about. China and Pakistan have jointly promoted to Egypt 80 K8 trainers and have sold Egypt the production technology of the aircraft.



    In 2005, bilateral trade between China and Saudi Arabia reached US$16 billion, in which China's exports to Saudi Arabia were valued at US$3.82 billion. At present, China is importing 1.9 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia every day. In 2005 Saudi Arabia exported to China a total of 22 million tons of oil, mainly used as China's strategic energy reserve. Oman is China's fifth largest source of oil. It exported 10 million tons of crude oil to China in 2005, approximately 8.5 percent of China's total oil imports in that year. With China's increased demand for oil, China's promotion of military weapon systems to Oman is also becoming more active. Around 2001, Chinese arms successfully penetrated the Oman market. In that year, NORINCO exported to Oman six sets of Type 90A rocket guns, and later NORINCO also promoted to the Oman Royal Guards a new batch of Type 90B rocket launchers.

    Almost during the same period of time, NORINCO sold to the Oman Royal Guards around 50 WMZ551 wheeled armored vehicles, which was the first time for China to export wheeled armored vehicles to the Middle East Region. The United Arab Emirates is one of the key target markets of China's arms promotion in the Middle East region. The UAE was in fact the first country to use the Chinese made HJ8A anti-tank missiles. Around 2003, NORINCO exported to UAE one 23-mm rapid-fire gun for testing purposes. In 2005, UAE exported to China 2.5 million tons of crude oil, which made up about 2 percent of China's total oil imports. China was also one of the first countries to target Kuwait's rebuilding of its military machine. China's most successful promotion of arms to Kuwait was the deal of 27 sets of PLZ45 155-mm self-propelled guns in 2000. These self-propelled guns were delivered to Kuwait in two different batches, totaling 54. In 2005, China imported 1.6 million tons of oil from Kuwait, approximately 1.3 percent of China's total oil imports.

    In 2005, Yemen exported to China 6.8 million tons of crude oil, which makes up 5.4 percent of China's total oil imports, and Yemen is China's sixth largest source of oil. In recent years, China's financial loans to Yemen and economic aid have also increased. In 1989, North Yemen purchased 6 J7 fighters from China. At present, thanks to rapid economic recovery, Yemen is expanding its navy and air force arsenals. Yemen has ordered a batch of the latest version of MiG29SMT fighters from Russia. It can be concluded that China is using arms sales and oil development as its leverage to further strengthen its relations with oil-rich countries in West Asia, and at the same time stepping up efforts to sell more arms to most of the six Gulf countries.

    Source: http://www.upiasiaonline.com/people/..._chinese_arms/
    Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

    Նժդեհ


    Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

    Comment


    • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

      I am speechless...

      ************************************************** ***************

      AJC Condemns Armenian University for Honoring Iranian President

      October 24, 2007 – New York – The American xxxish Committee fully supports the position of the Armenian xxxish community in condemning Yerevan State University for honoring Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Earlier this week, the university presented the Iranian leader with an honorary doctorate and a gold medal. “It is simply astonishing that a university, where the search for truth and peaceful coexistence ought to be cherished ideals, would honor the head of a country who is a leading denier of the Holocaust and calls for the elimination of a UN member state, Israel,” said AJC Executive Director David A. Harris. “Moreover, as president of Iran, Ahmadinejad has xxxxxled on the rights of many Iranian citizens, including students on university campuses who have protested his, in their words, dictatorial and suffocating leadership,” said Harris. “Many of those students have been imprisoned and reportedly tortured.” “Yerevan State University should have honored the students and not those who clamp down on their right to speak out and protest,” Harris said.

      Source: http://www.ajc.org/site/apps/nl/cont...241&ct=4552745

      Ahmadinejad honor outrages Armenian [Jooz]

      The Eurasian xxxish Congress condemned Armenia for honoring Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian president was presented with an honorary doctorate Monday at Yerevan State University, as well as a gold medal. Ahmadinejad was visiting Armenia for a two-day state visit. In an interview with the Rosbalt news agency, Eurasian xxxish Congress representative and Armenian xxxish community President Rima Varzhepetyan expressed outrage at the decision to honor Ahmadinejad. "The constant anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli rhetoric of the president of Iran, as well as the regularly organized statements in denial of the Holocaust, place Ahmadinejad in line with theories not unlike those of Dr. Goebbels, one of the chief ideologues of Nazi ideology in Germany," Varzhepetyan said.

      Source: http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/breaking/104831.html
      Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

      Նժդեհ


      Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

        Iran can play key role in regional stability: Armenia MP

        An Armenian lawmaker said on Monday that the Islamic Republic of Iran can play a decisive role in bolstering peace and stability in the region. Making the remark at the 15th International Seminar on the Central Asia and Caucasus, Stepan Zackaryan referred to historical and cultural commonalties between Iran and Armenia, saying that Tehran has had appropriate and enhanced cooperation with Yerevan since the independence of Armenia. Zackaryan further pointed to the NATO performance in the Central Asia region, saying that some regional countries have lost their trust in NATO because of discriminatory behaviors of the western states. If international regulations give the opportunity to certain powers to violate them easily, other nations will definitely disagree with global treaties including NATO Treaty, Zackaryan added. The 15th International Seminar on Central Asia and Caucasus was held in participation of ambassadors, researchers and thinkers from 25 countries at Iran's Foreign Ministry Research Center.

        Source: http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/men...4530170450.htm
        Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

        Նժդեհ


        Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

        Comment


        • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

          I know Iran and Turkey are against a Kurdistan. how will their alliance on this issue affect Armenia?

          Turkish Newspaper Believes That Latest Events In Northern Iraq May Turn Into Regional War


          arminfo
          2007-10-29 17:47:00

          ArmInfo. "Yeni Safak" Turkish newspaper writes that the latest events
          in Northern Iraq may turn into a "regional war". the source notes.

          Touching on the subject of regional developments, the Turkish newspaper
          writes: "Russian military sources told the Kremlin: "Turkey has asked
          Iran for military support in northern Iraq."
          These circles attribute
          Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad's decision to cut his visit to
          Armenia short to this development, although resignations in Tehran were
          publicly cited as the reason for this decision. At the same time,
          Syria has ordered its army to be prepared for war. The Damascus
          administration believes that Israel will launch an attack before
          the Feast of the Sacrifice. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has
          declared that Iran has crossed its red lines on its path to becoming
          a nuclear power. Reports across the world suggest that Turkey, which
          already has some military operations under way in the region, will
          launch a sweeping campaign in a few days".

          Comment


          • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried



            London, Jan. 15 – A secret document obtained by Iran Focus shows that recent political developments in Syria and Lebanon have aroused deep anxiety among the top commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who see the events as “a direct threat to the national security” of the Islamic Republic and who want to speed up the development of nuclear weapons.

            The document, provided to Iran Focus by a reliable source in Iran, is a political analysis of the situation by the IRGC leadership prepared earlier this month for circulation among the clerical regime’s top officials. The paper, entitled “Recent occurrences in Syria and their effects on the region”, warns that the “rapidly changing” political climate in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, would be “significantly detrimental” to Tehran’s interests.

            The IRGC leadership identified the United States military presence in the Persian Gulf region as “the root of evil” and said “greater measures” were needed to counter it.

            “From a strategic point of view, any change in, or destabilisation of, Syria will reduce or eliminate the calculations and reach of the Islamic Republic of Iran to counter the threats posed by the Zionist regime”, the Revolutionary Guards commanders said, referring to Israel.

            “The plot that is being implemented in Lebanon with quickening steps aims to change the political makeup of the country and its officials and their positions, so that they force Hezbollah to accept the new imposed realities”.

            Elsewhere in the report, Iran’s nuclear program is highlighted as the “next target” of the international community. The paper argues that the West will attempt to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear capabilities and that the Islamic Republic must push forward with its nuclear advancements in order to ensure its survival.

            The paper concludes by saying, “Altogether, in all the regions mentioned from Syria to Iraq, and Lebanon to Palestine, the desire of Arab leaders to remain in power in return for cooperating with America brings with it active and potential threats which directly threaten Iran’s interests and national security, while at the same time progressively and quietly limiting the areas that are within our reach and weakening our regional tools and assets”.

            “These two points, when considered alongside other active threats, can be significantly detrimental to the Islamic Republic’s interests and security. Vigilance, wisdom, and well-planned and comprehensive measures are required to deal with these threats”, the top IRGC commanders noted.

            Comment


            • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

              Originally posted by crusader1492 View Post
              I know Iran and Turkey are against a Kurdistan. how will their alliance on this issue affect Armenia?
              In politics, as in war, there is no such thing as unrealistic or unethical. When there is a new enemy that poses a new threat, a greater threat, old rivalries are temporarily put aside to take care of the more pressing problem. A nation does what is best for its interests, even if it means temporarily uniting with old foes. For example, look at the unholy union between the Soviet Union and the Western Allies during the Second World War. Politics has nothing to do with ideology and/or ethics, its all about survival, wealth and power. In my opinion, their agreement over the issue regarding the Kurds will not effect the strategic importance of Armenia for Tehran. Therefore, one has nothing to do with the other as far as Iran is concerned.

              Most people fail to realize that Kurds are a very valuable asset for Americans and Israelis within the Middle East. This is because there are millions of well-placed Kurds in Syria, Iran, Iraq and Turkey that can spy for them and if need be indirectly wage war for them. Kurds represent the biggest danger to existence of the Turkish state. Therefore, Ankara will stop at nothing to thwart the creation of a Kurdish state anywhere in the region. Kurds also represent a problem for Iran, albeit not as severe as the one they represent to Turkey. Not many people seem to be aware of the low-intensity war going on in north-west Iran between Kurds and Iranians. It's obvious that there is serious big power politics going on in northern Iraq, which has become in essence a de-facto Kurdistan. For many years now American and Israeli intelligence services and special forces have been saturating the region. Some Kurdish factions are being used against Iran, others are being used against Turkey, other are being used throughout Iraq, and there may yet be others that will be used in Syria. Kurdistan has become an American/Israeli stronghold in a sense; a mountain fortress where they can conduct operations in several strategically important regions.

              Perhaps Washington DC and Tel Aviv have have decide that it is in their strategic interests to create a Kurdish state. A Kurdish state that they can put together from scratch. A state that will be indirectly controlled by Washington DC and Tel Aviv. Ankara and Tehran have begun to realize this ominous fact, as have so many others around the world. And this is the fundamental reason why Ankara has been rather cold towards the United States and Israel as of late and has been somewhat overreacting at every thing.

              Therefore, Washington DC will need Kurds for the foreseeable future, that is, until they realize their strategic agendas in the region. It's all a game, as usual. So, I think the United States and Israel will try their best to maintain good relations with Kurds, even at the serious risk of fouling their relationship with Turkey. In other wards, for the United States and Israel, Kurdistan serves as a strategic stronghold that they can control within the heartland of the volatile region. That is the reason why we at times see strained relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara. At the same time, Israel and Turkey still need each other for survival. I believe they are destined to live together and die together. Thus, it will interesting watching the United States, Israel and Turkey dance around the Kurdish question. I have a feeling, however, that Washington DC has comforted Ankara with a promise that Kurds will not seek, or allowed to gain, <<full>> independence.

              The Kurdish situation is definitely something to watch.
              Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

              Նժդեհ


              Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

              Comment


              • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

                Kocharian Inaugurates New Road in Southern Armenia

                President Robert Kocharian flew Sunday to the southeastern town of Meghri for the inauguration of a new road that connects the town with Ghapan, the administrative center of Syunik province. The construction of the brand new road was funded by a 15 billion dram budget given by the government. The 91 km-long road took two and a half years to build. "We have built the gas pipeline (Iran-Armenia), which is now being extended. Next year Armenia and Iran will launch the construction of the third high-voltage power line for seasonal electricity swaps between the two countries. We also have the intention to build an oil refinery and a railway. If we repair also the road from Ghapan to Goris and to Sisian this highway will become a transit road," Kocharian said as he expressed his confidence in the above-mentioned projects. The new road will facilitate communication between Armenia and Iran. The only road that connected Armenia and Iran went through the Meghri pass, which is 2,563 meters above sea level. The traffic there has often been blocked in the winter by heavy snowfall.

                Source: http://www.huliq.com/40009/kocharian...uthern-armenia
                Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

                Նժդեհ


                Please visit me at my Heralding the Rise of Russia blog: http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.com/

                Comment


                • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

                  Growing Russia, Iran ties



                  Most summit meetings these days are uneventful, because of the primacy given to protocol and publicity rather than to substance. But last week’s meeting between the leaders of Iran and Russia, on the sidelines of the Caspian Sea summit in Tehran, was a qualitatively different affair. The timing of Iran’s initiative for a summit of the five Caspian Sea littoral states that brought President Putin to Tehran -- the first visit by a Russian leader in 60 years -- represented a major success for its efforts to break out of the isolation that the U.S. has tried to impose on it. Moreover, the Iranians chose wisely to relegate to the background such thorny issues as Caspian Sea ownership and ‘legal regime’, focusing their energies on shared interests, trans-boundary issues and trade. This was to the advantage of Iran, given its relatively minor energy interests in its sector of the Caspian Sea.

                  If Iran was the beneficiary of the summit, President Putin was its star. Betraying no evidence of being a ‘lame-duck’ president, Putin warned against military action against Iran, while declaring that it was wrong to ‘think about the possibility of using force’. More importantly, he emphasized that it would be irresponsible to ‘talk about the possibility of using our territory for other countries to carry out aggression or military action against other Caspian littoral states’. No less significant was his support for Iran’s right to nuclear energy, adding that Russia supported the right of all NPT members to ‘research, produce and use nuclear energy for peaceful ends, without discrimination, within the framework of this treaty and the mechanisms of the UN nuclear watchdog’. For good measure, Putin also reminded the world that ‘Russia is the only country helping Iran to construct a nuclear power station for peaceful ends’ and reiterated that Russia would honor its commitment to complete it.

                  Putin’s unequivocal support for Iran caught Washington by surprise. In response, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice accused Iranian leaders of ‘lying’ about their nuclear program while the Pentagon reiterated that Iran was providing weapons to insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. This was followed by President Bush warning that Iran must be barred from acquiring nuclear weapons to avoid the prospects of a third world war. Vice President Cheney, long recognized as a ‘hawk’ on Iran, stepped in with the declaration that the U.S. ‘will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons’.

                  What upset the Bush administration even more was that Putin’s visit to Tehran took place only days after Ms. Rice and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates had held a comprehensive dialogue with their Russian counterparts in Moscow. Both sides claimed that they wished to defuse the mounting tensions between them, but the Moscow meeting failed to bridge their differences, with the U.S. anti-missile defense shield proposal and the Russian threat to abandon the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, resulting in a public spat between them. Putin’s statements in Tehran are significant for they represent a departure from Russia’s oft stated policy of working with the U.S. and the other P-5 states to maintain diplomatic pressure on Iran. Washington’s harsh reaction confirms the impression that this development represents a failure of its policy towards Russia, as much as it demonstrates the skill and resolve with which Putin has advanced his country’s interests, even when playing with a weak hand.

                  Putin’s assertive foreign policy may have upset many in the West but it has endeared him to his people, for it is taken ‘as a sign of the strengthening of Russia’s role and authority on the world stage’. But it is not only in Europe that Putin wants to demonstrate Russia’s influence. Central Asia and the Middle East have not escaped his attention either. Relations with China in particular occupy centre-stage in Putin’s strategic plans for the region, both bilaterally and in the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In fact, Sino-Russian collaboration confronts the West with a formidable challenge.

                  As Putin ends his second four-year term, the Russians are deeply appreciative of the peace and order imposed by him. But what has endeared Putin to most Russians is the element of ‘pride’ that he has restored to the country. What the U.S. sees as ‘aggressive’ or ‘nationalist’ policies are viewed by Russians as ‘independent’ and ‘sovereign’ policies. The U.S. must learn to strike a balance in its relations with Russia and treat it as a responsible major global power, just as it treats China as an economic giant and a major political player. The U.S. must also recognize that the Russians will no longer brook ‘guidance’, and certainly not any ‘interference’ in their internal affairs. That era is over now.

                  Meanwhile, Iran has become an obsession with the Bush administration. It has also emerged as a major issue in the foreign policy debate for the U.S. presidential candidates. While some Democrats are accusing Bush of raising the specter of a global war, Hillary Clinton has opted to give the president ‘a virtual blank check’. Nevertheless, many Americans remain skeptical of U.S. allegations against Iran’s nuclear program. In an op-ed piece, Scott Ritter, a former UN arms inspector, asserted that ‘a careful fact-based assessment of Iran demonstrates that it poses no threat to the legitimate national security interests of the United States’.

                  Putin’s comments highlighted the growing differences between Russia and the West, especially the United States. While the latter seeks more unilateral and multilateral sanctions to punish Iran for its nuclear program, the former believes that diplomacy is the only way to solve the stand-off; especially as it remains skeptical about western claims that Iran’s nuclear program is military in nature. In fact, it is U.S. interventionist policies and Washington’s proclivity to unilateral action that has propelled Russia and Iran to come closer. With both under pressure from the Bush administration, the Tehran summit’s results represent a major success for them. Iran, described by Putin as an ‘important regional and global power’, has been provided with some much-needed breathing space that it will be able to put to good use, thanks to the skill with which it pursues its multi-faceted diplomacy.

                  It will also try to use the summit declaration as a stepping stone to full membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, seen increasingly as a security counterweight to NATO and U.S. ‘hegemony’. On the other hand, it is clear that Moscow is now prepared to enter into a new strategic relationship with Iran that is likely to have a profound impact on the region. This is one development that needs to be monitored closely by us as well.

                  Source: http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=156047

                  Russia's Lavrov to meet Ahmadinejad

                  Russia's foreign minister is due to hold talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran on Tuesday, less than a week after Moscow criticised new U.S. sanctions against the Islamic state over its nuclear work. Iranian officials said Sergei Lavrov would meet Ahmadinejad at 4 p.m. British time. In Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry chief spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said the visit would discuss Iran's nuclear activities, which the West suspects are aimed at making bombs, as well as bilateral questions.

                  "A number of issues connected to the situation around Iran's nuclear programme, and a number of questions of bilateral cooperation, will be discussed," Interfax news agency quoted him as saying. Iran rejects Western accusations it is seeking to build atom bombs and has refused to halt its nuclear programme. The United States last week imposed new sanctions on Iran and accused its Revolutionary Guards of spreading weapons of mass destruction. Russian President Vladimir Putin said such moves only forced Tehran into a corner.

                  It was not clear whether Lavrov and Ahmadinejad would hold a press conference after their discussions. Their meeting coincides with a new round of talks in Tehran between officials from Iran and the U.N. nuclear agency watchdog on implementing an August agreement aimed at clearing up past suspicions about the country's nuclear ambitions. Russia believes dialogue rather than more punishment or military action is the way forward. Visiting Tehran two weeks ago, Putin told Washington that Moscow would not accept military action against Iran.

                  Russia is building Iran's first atomic power plant in Bushehr. Western powers fear Tehran's pursuit of nuclear-generated electricity is a precursor to building an atom bomb. Iran says its programme is for peaceful purposes.

                  Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNew...02537920071030

                  Russia, Iran: The Next Step in the Diplomatic Tango

                  Summary

                  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is paying a brief visit to Tehran on Oct. 30 to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. His trip comes just two weeks after a major Russian-Iranian summit in Tehran, during which Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly conveyed that he had every intention of entangling Russia in Iran's showdown with the United States over Iraq. Though this love triangle is filled with more drama than a Brazilian telenovela, each step carries significant implications for U.S., Iranian and Russian foreign policy.

                  Analysis

                  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in Tehran on Oct. 30 paying a brief visit to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. This is the second major Iranian-Russian meeting this month. At the Oct. 15-16 Caspian Summit in Tehran, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his unequivocal support for Iran against U.S. aggression. Ahmadinejad also is expected to visit Moscow soon. Lavrov's surprise visit to Tehran is likely intended to work out the details of an alleged offer Putin made to the Iranians during the Caspian Summit. Before a discussion of what this murky Iranian-Russian deal could entail, the Lavrov-Ahmadinejad meeting needs some context.

                  Russia has a fine-tuned strategy of exploiting its Middle Eastern allies' interests for its own political purposes. Iran is the perfect candidate. It is a powerful Islamic state that is locked into a showdown with the United States over its nuclear program and Iraq. Though Washington and Tehran are constantly battling in the public sphere with war rhetoric, they need to deal with each other for the sake of their strategic interests. Russia, meanwhile, has its own turf war with the United States that involves a range of hot issues, including National Missile Defense, renegotiating Cold War-era treaties, and Western interference in Russia's periphery. By demonstrating that Moscow has some real sway over the Iranians, Russia gains a useful bargaining chip to use in its dealings with the United States.

                  The Iranians, on the other hand, are focused on Iraq. The fall of Saddam Hussein gave Iran a historic opportunity to extend a Shiite buffer zone into Iraq, but Tehran still must contend with the United States, which remains the primary obstacle to Iran's expansionist ambitions. Iran has used its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States over Iraq, but is engaged in an intense internal debate over how to best use the nuclear issue in talks with Washington.

                  Iran knows the United States -- not Russia -- has leverage in Iraq. Why, then, are the Iranians so interested in cozying up to Russia, a country they deeply distrust? The Iranians appear to be searching for a way to bolster their deterrent strategy against the United States before Tehran makes any bold moves in Iraq. Russia has offered itself as Iran's backup, providing the necessary diplomatic cover and military support to ward off U.S. aggression against Iran. With Russian support, the Iranians have more leverage in their negotiations with the United States.

                  But the Russian offer does not come without a price. For Moscow to demonstrate that it has actual leverage in its relationship with Tehran, the Iranians must offer cooperation on the nuclear issue. After all, Russia is just as interested as the United States is in preventing a nuclear Iran from becoming a reality. This way, Russia extracts political benefits from the United States, and Iran has an opening to move forward in serious negotiations with Washington over Iraq.

                  Lavrov is likely playing the role of messenger during this brief visit. Stratfor would love nothing more than to know what he reports back to Putin, and it will be interesting to see if this visit sets off another political storm in Tehran as the internal policy debate there rages on. In the meantime, Stratfor will be prowling for any clues surrounding this latest step in the Iranian-U.S.-Russian tango.

                  Source: http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre...ected=Analyses
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                  • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

                    Originally posted by Armenian View Post
                    Most people fail to realize that Kurds are a very valuable asset for Americans and Israelis within the Middle East.
                    They can be for Armenians.

                    BBC, News, BBC News, news online, world, uk, international, foreign, british, online, service


                    I hope the turds go storming in.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

                      Originally posted by skhara View Post
                      They can be for Armenians. I hope the turds go storming in.
                      I have mixed feelings about it, Skhara.

                      If Turks go in full force they can destroy the fledgling Kurdish state. Yes, the Turkish army will suffer much losses but, in my opinion, they would eventually be able to crush Kurdish forces.

                      Few things to take into consideration: Kurds are a very fragmented nation, not even an all out invasion by Turkey will unite them. Their more-or-less primitive forces will not be able to withstand the might of the Turkish army. Kurdistan does not have the rugged forest covered mountains of Serbia, it does not have the size and complexity of Afghanistan, nor does it have the extensive jungles and military might of North Vietnam. It will not be too difficult for the Turks to chase a few thousand Kurdish guerrilla fighters out of those bare mountains, especially when their neighbors the Syrians and the Iranians are their enemies as well. In my opinion, Turks have not invaded Kurdistan only because of geopolitical fears and not because they fear the Kurdish militias. Nonetheless, anything can happen.

                      Besides, although we Armenians seem to have some connections to the PKK, the rest of the Kurdish groups in the area seem to be fully in bed with Tel Aviv and Washington DC. In my opinion, if a Kurdish state is formed today, it will only be because the US and Israel allowed it. Thus, if a Kurdish state is created it will most probably be created in the image of its founding fathers.

                      I may have call it first. Nevertheless, something to think about...

                      An interesting article about this topic in the Turkish press:

                      Relations between Armenia and PKK Terrorism

                      Changing their tactics after the ’80s as they encountered adverse reactions from the world. Now, it was time for PKK to carry on the mission. Their first terrorist act started at Eruh and Semdimli in 1984 while the ASALA-Armenian terror receded to the background. Some of the tangible proofs of the ties between Armenians and PKK are the following:

                      The terrorist organisation PKK announced the period from 21 to 28 April 1980 as the "Red Week" and started to organise meetings on April 24 as the anniversary of the alleged genocide against Armenians.

                      The PKK and ASALA terror organisations held a joint press conference on 8 April 1980 at the City of Sidon in Lebanon where they issued a declaration. Since this drew a considerable reaction, they decided that their relations should be maintained on a clandestine basis. The responsibility of the attacks launched against the Turkish Consulate General in Strasbourg on 9 November 1980 and the Turkish Airline office in Rome on 19 November 1980 were undertaken jointly by the ASALA and PKK. Abdullah Öcalan, leader of the separatist terror organisation, was elected to the honorary membership of the Armenian Authors’ Association for "his contributions to the idea of Greater Armenia". A Kurdistan Committee was formed within the Armenian Popular Movement like in many European countries.

                      On 4 June 1993, a meeting was held at the headquarters of PKK terrorist organisation at West Beyrouth with the participation of representatives from the Armenian Hinchak Party, ASALA and PKK.

                      Another striking example of the Armenian-PKK ties are the following resolutions adopted in meetings held at two separate churches from 6 to 9 September 1993 with the participation of Lebanese Armenian Orthodox Archbishop, officials of the Armenian Party and about 150 youth leaders :

                      A somewhat sedate attitude should be reserved toward Turkey for the time being. The Armenian community is on the way to growth and better economic strength. The propaganda activities have started to make the genocide claims better understood in the rest of the world. The newly founded Armenian State with a constantly growing territory will definitely avenge the ancestors of its citizens. The Western powers and particularly the United States side with and favour the Armenians in the combat for Nagorno Karabakh. This opportunity should be well exploited as more and more Armenian young men join the ranks in this fight. The perpetual terrorist attacks in Turkey (meaning the PKK’s actions) will continue and eventually collapse the country’s economy, leading to an uprising by the entire population. Turkey will be abolish and a Kurdish State will be formed. Armenians will hold good relations with the Kurds and support their fight. Territories presently held by the Turks will the Armenian’s tomorrow.

                      PUBLICATION ORGANS OF TERRORIST ORGANISATION PKK IN ARMENIA

                      The newspapers Reya Taze and Bota Redaksiyon are published in Armenia in Cyrillic alphabet under the control of terrorist organisation PKK with the help of PKK members coming from Turkey and Europe and carries out propaganda for the PKK.

                      PKK-ASALA RELATIONS

                      The Armenian terrorism at international first started basis in 1973 and began to gain impetus after the 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation with attacks or terrorist nature against Turks and Turkish representations abroad with sabotages and outright assaults.

                      Upon resurrection of the Kurdish terrorist movement that began to show itself in a variety of legal political entities from ’70s onward, the Armenian terror organisation ASALA ceded its place in 1984 to the PKK that killed without distinction of Turk or Kurd in a bloodthirsty manner under the guidance of Abdullah Öcalan.

                      Yet in prior to that date, of the co-operation between terrorist organisations ASALA and PKK was known manifesting in the training of ASALA militants at PKK’s trannie camps, the joint operations and declamations by them both and training support provided at the PKK camps by Armenian experts, not to mention the organic ties between the terrorist organisation PKK and Armenian Tashnak Sutyun Party.

                      The common goal of the co-operation between the terrorist organisations PKK and ASALA is to establish States in Turkey’s Southeastern and Eastern under the Marxist-Leninist ideology. Since, however, an overview of the areas on which both organisations had schemes, it may be deduced that one of these organisations acts as the other’s mercenaries.

                      An examination of the discovered documents revealed that the militants of ASALA and PKK terrorist organisations underwent training at the Bekaa and Zeli camps.

                      1987 AGREEMENT BETWEEN PKK AND ARMENIANS

                      An agreement was concluded between the separatist terror organisation PKK and Armenians in 1987. Following are the highlights of this agreement:

                      1. Armenians will be involved in training activities within the PKK terror organisation.

                      2. Five thousand American Dollars per annum will be paid to the PKK terror organisation per capita by the Armenian side.

                      3. The Armenians will participate in the small-scale operations.

                      As the Armenian component began to acquire a significantly elevated position within the organisation as a result of this agreement, the following resolutions were adopted in a meeting held on 18 April 1990 with a person named Hermes Samurai, reported to be the official responsible for the PKK-ASALA relations:

                      1. The PKK and ASALA terrorist organisations will be under a joint command from that date on.

                      2. The Armenians will undertake intelligence work on the Turkish security forces.

                      3. Territories gained through the expected revolution will be equally shared between the parties.

                      4. Seventy-five percent of training camp expenses will be borne by the Armenians.

                      5. Operations will be conducted at the metropolitan cities in Turkey. The terrorist organisation PKK that moved its bases into Northern Iraq after because of very heavy blows dealt in the transborder operations and lost all possibilities of sheltering there is known to have entered into arrangements for shifting some of its cadres to Iran and Armenia where it started an active subversive operation toward Turkey.

                      It has also been learned that a group of European representatives of the terrorist organisation PKK paid a visit to Armenia where they concluded an agreement with the Armenian leaders for the unhindered ingress to and egress from Kars region by their militants, that Armenia offered sheltering, monetary and equipment support to the Kurdish settlements in that country following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the formal proclamation of the Armenian Republic. Similarly, a group of militants of the terrorist organisation PKK left Urmiah for Armenia on three vehicles on 19 and 20 May 1992 for fighting against Azerite Turks together with the Armenians.

                      Source: http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=49856#
                      Մեր ժողովուրդն արանց հայրենասիրութեան այն է, ինչ որ մի մարմին' առանց հոգու:

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