Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[skhara]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Then again, there is always a chance that Israel might go at it alone.

They have no flying options then. If US threats are off, and they appear to be -- Israel has no place to fly through.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

They have no flying options then. If US threats are off, and they appear to be -- Israel has no place to fly through.

I would not be too sure. In theory, IAF has the option of flying through Jordan, which is being lead by a petty puppet king, then onto Iraq, with US looking the other way, and then on to Iran. The Israeli warplanes will need areal refueling, which most probably will be provided by the USAF in the region. Even if this theorized plan works out perfectly, Israel would only able to deliver Iran a very limited blow, that is if no nuclear devises are used. In other words, Israel will not be able to perform an extended areal bombardment of Iran. It will have to be a one time surprise attack. In other words, this time, there will not be any shock and awe. And what Iran's reaction will be like in such a case still remains unpredictable.

[Azad]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

It will come to the 100$ for the oil barrel.
If I was the "US" what will I do to get rid of my oil nightmare? The $100 barrel that is slowing my economy and killing me like a cancer. What will I do?

[Azad]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

What if I showed some rapprochement towards Iran? would the oil rich Arabs feel threatened? Will I make Russia worried? The best thing Washington can do ... is show some rapprochement towards Iran. That will put Israel and the Saudis into submission.

[skhara]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I would not be too sure. In theory, IAF has the option of flying through Jordan, which is being lead by a petty puppet king, then onto Iraq, with US looking the other way, and then on to Iran. The Israeli warplanes will need areal refueling, which most probably will be provided by the USAF in the region. Even if this theorized plan works out perfectly, Israel would only able to deliver Iran a very limited blow, that is if no nuclear devises are used. In other words, Israel will not be able to perform an extended areal bombardment of Iran. It will have to be a one time surprise attack. In other words, this time, there will not be any shock and awe. And what Iran's reaction will be like in such a case still remains unpredictable.

But the scenario you describe cannot be treated as "Israel alone". Israel just flying through Iraq (let alone the refueling), should mean that Iran treats this as joint attack.

Anyway, Israel has always been pushing the US for an Iran attack. I can't see them being so stupid knowing that they can't really deliver any significant damage to Iran without nuclear weapons -- and not knowing what the consequences will be. They already were humiliated not too long ago.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

I can't see them being so stupid knowing that they can't really deliver any significant damage to Iran without nuclear weapons -- and not knowing what the consequences will be. They already were humiliated not too long ago.

You are right. This dilemma - dammed if you do damed if your don't - is what's driving them mad in Tel Aviv and Washington DC.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

U.S.: Iran boats harassed warships Officials call it 'provocative;' Iran says ships didn't recognize each other



US footage of confrontation in the Gulf - 09 Jan 08: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRbYK...&oe=UTF-8&hl=e

US Navy accuses Iran of provacation - 07 Jan 08 (video): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeEsh...gk/default.jpg

Iranian boats harassed and provoked three American Navy ships in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, threatening to blow up the vessels, U.S. officials said Monday. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Monday the confrontation was “something normal” and was resolved, suggesting the Iranian boats had not recognized the U.S. vessels. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said the Bush administration urges Iranians “to refrain from such provocative actions that could lead to a dangerous incident in the future.”

Military officials told NBC News that two U.S. Navy destroyers and one frigate were heading into the Persian Gulf through the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz when five armed "fast boats" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard approached at high speed, darting in and out of the formation. At one point a radio message from one of the Iranian boats warned, "You are going to blow up within minutes." The Navy warships went into defensive mode, radioed the usual warnings to steer clear, and in the end no shots were fired. U.S. military warships believe the Revolutionary Guard boats were "testing our defenses," the officials said. Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman called it a “serious incident.” Another U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, called it “the most serious provocation of this sort that we’ve seen yet.”

Bush visiting region next week

The incident raised new tensions between Washington and Tehran as President Bush prepared for his first major trip to the Middle East. A statement issued by the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain said the incident occurred at about 8 a.m. local time Sunday as Navy cruiser USS Port Royal, destroyer USS Hopper and frigate USS Ingraham were on their way into the Persian Gulf and passing through the strait — a major oil shipping route. Five small boats began charging the U.S. ships, dropping boxes in the water in front of the ships and forcing the U.S. ships to take evasive maneuvers, said the Pentagon official. The boxes floated by, and officials said they didn’t know what was in them because U.S. sailors didn’t pick them up. There were no injuries but the official said there could have been, because the Iranian boats turned away “literally at the very moment that U.S. forces were preparing to open fire” in self defense.

The official, who asked to speak on grounds of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the issue publicly, said he didn’t have the precise transcript of communications that passed between the two forces, but said the Iranians radioed something like “we’re coming at you and you’ll explode in a couple minutes.” At the State Department, spokesman Sean McCormack said he was not aware of any plans to lodge a formal protest. “Without specific reference to this incident in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will confront Iranian behavior where it seeks to do harm either to us or to our friends and allies in the region,” McCormack told reporters. “There is wide support for that within the region and certainly that’s not going to change.” Whitman said the Pentagon will work with State and National Security Council officials to determine “the appropriate way to address this with the Iranian government.”

Iran's response

But Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Ali Hosseini played down the incident, suggesting it was an issue of misidentification. He did not comment on the U.S. claims of the Iranian boats’ actions. “That is something normal that takes place every now and then for each party, and it (the problem) is settled after identification of the two parties,” he told the state news agency IRNA. The incident was “similar to past ones” that were resolved “once the two sides recognized each other,” he said. An Iranian Revolutionary Guard official also described the incident as nothing unusual. “No unusual confrontation has taken place between the Guard’s patrol vessels and U.S. ships,” state-run television quoted the official as saying. The official was speaking on customary condition of anonymity. The Guard official said the Guard’s vessels were conducting normal patrols in the Strait of Hormuz when they saw three U.S. ships enter the waters of the region. “The Guard’s navy vessels, as usual, asked the ships to identify themselves and they did so and continued their path,” the TV quoted the official as saying.

'Potentially hostile intent'

At the Pentagon, Whitman said the U.S. vessels were in international waters, making a normal transit into the Gulf. He said the Iranian boats were operating at “distances and speeds that showed reckless and dangerous intent — reckless, dangerous and potentially hostile intent.” The episode lasted 15 to 20 minutes, Whitman said, but he wouldn’t say whether officials know for certain whether the were vessels were Iranian Revolutionary Guard or regular Iranian navy. The Revolutionary Guard forces have been known to be more aggressive than the regular navy. “At least some were visibly armed. Small Iranian fast boats made some aggressive maneuvers against our vessels and indicated some hostile intent,” Whitman said.

Historical tensions between the two nations have increased in recent years over Washington’s charge that Tehran has been developing nuclear weapons and supplying and training Iraqi insurgents using roadside bombs — the No. 1 killer of U.S. troops in Iraq. At about this time last year, Bush announced he was sending a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf region in a show of force against Iran. The U.S. Navy quietly scaled back to one carrier group several months later. But while the two were there, they staged two major exercises off Iran’s coast. As one of the world’s most vital chokepoints for oil shipping, the 30-mile-wide Hormuz strait has been the subject of previous armed confrontations between the United States and Iran, most notably during the eight-year Iraq-Iran war of the 1980s.

The United States expressed concern when the Revolutionary Guard forces took over Iranian naval operations in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz from Iran's regular navy more than five months ago. However, Sunday’s incident was the first significant one since then. In another incident off its coast, Iranian Revolutionary Guard sailors last March captured 15 British sailors and held them for nearly two weeks. The 15 sailors, including one woman, were captured on March 23. Iran claims the crew, operating in a small patrol craft, had intruded into Iranian waters — a claim denied by Britain.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22537199/

U.S. Describes Confrontation With Iranian Boats

WASHINGTON — Five armed Iranian speedboats approached three United States Navy warships in international waters in the strategic Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, then maneuvered aggressively as radio threats were issued that the American ships would be blown up, military officials said Monday. The confrontation, which ended after just under 30 minutes without damage, shots fired or any injuries, took place during daylight on Sunday as the three American ships were entering the Persian Gulf. On Monday, the senior Navy officer in the region, Vice Adm. Kevin J. Cosgriff, criticized the Iranian actions as “unnecessarily provocative.” Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, said the Iranians had acted in a “reckless and dangerous” manner.

Iranian officials played down the significance of the encounter. “This is an ordinary occurrence, which happens every now and then for both sides,” said Muhammad Ali Hosseini, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, as quoted by the state-run news agency IRNA. But several Pentagon officials said the commander of a Navy destroyer involved in the episode had been on the verge of issuing an order to fire on one of the small, high-speed boats sailing near the American naval convoy. The commander of the Hopper, a guided-missile destroyer, was “very close to giving the order to fire,” said one of the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak for attribution. “We were perilously close to an incident where we would have taken out at least one of the Iranian small boats.”

The Hopper had trained an M240 machine gun — which fires upward of 10 armor-piercing slugs per second — on one of the Iranian boats that had pulled to within 200 yards of the American vessel, well within the gun’s range, Pentagon officials said. But before the order to fire was issued, the Iranian boat suddenly steered away from the Hopper. The United States has conducted major war games to prepare for just the kind of event that unfolded over the weekend, because Navy officers have expressed concerns that the weaker Iranian fleet might choose to confront American warships by “swarming” with larger numbers of smaller craft. Admiral Cosgriff, commander of the Fifth Fleet, said the episode was “more serious than we have seen,” in particular because it occurred in an important maritime choke point vital to the global economy.

“I am concerned with what I consider unnecessary and irresponsible maneuvering and behavior like this on the part of those patrol boats in, again, international waters in an area that’s traversed by numerous ships of all nations peacefully day in and day out,” he said during a video news conference from his headquarters in Bahrain. In addition to the Hopper, the American ships involved in the episode were the cruiser Port Royal and the Ingraham, a frigate. Commanders and crews sailing in the region are especially mindful of the damage small craft can inflict on American warships. In October 2000, 17 American sailors died when a small boat was detonated next to the destroyer Cole while it was docked for refueling in Yemen.

[...]

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/wa...4e5&ei=5087%0A

Iran Accuses U.S. of Faking Persian Gulf Video

The Revolutionary Guards in Iran accused the United States on Wednesday of fabricating a video showing Iranian speedboats confronting United States Navy warships in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, according to a report carried by the semi-official Fars news agency and state-run television. “Images released by the U.S. Department of Defense about the Navy vessels are from archive, and sounds on it are fabricated,” an unnamed Revolutionary Guards official said, according to Fars. The news agency has close links to the Revolutionary Guards. The comments were Iran’s first on the video, which the Pentagon released Tuesday. The Pentagon immediately dismissed the assertion. Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, told correspondents that Iran’s “allegation is absurd, factually incorrect and reflects the lack of seriousness with which they take this serious incident.” President Bush chastised Iran on Tuesday for committing a “provocative act.” On Wednesday, at the start of a trip with Mr. Bush to the Middle East, Stephen J. Hadley, his national security adviser, again warned Iran, saying that it had “to be very careful about this, because if it happens again, they are going to bear the consequences of that incident.”

The unnamed Revolutionary Guards official asserted that the video had been released to coincide with Mr. Bush’s trip and “was in line with a project of the Western media to create fear.” The official said the sounds and the images on the video did not go together. “It is very clear that they are fake,” the official said. The video and audio were recorded separately and then matched, Naval and Pentagon officials said Tuesday. The episode was first described by American officials on Monday, who said it took place the day before in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. They said five armed Iranian speedboats had approached three United States Navy warships in international waters, then maneuvered aggressively as radio threats were issued that the American ships would be blown up. The confrontation ended without shots fired or injuries.

The video runs just over four minutes and, according to Pentagon officials, was shot from the bridge of the guided missile destroyer Hopper. It supported the American version of events, showing speedboats maneuvering around and among the Navy warships. “I am coming to you,” a heavily accented voice says in English. “You will explode after a few minutes.” Navy officials said the voice was recorded from the internationally recognized bridge-to-bridge radio channel. An American sailor then is heard repeating the threat, stating, “He says, ‘You will explode after a few minutes.’ ” The American is also heard identifying the Navy vessel as a “coalition warship” and announcing: “I am engaged in transit passage in accordance with international law. I intend no harm.” Bush administration officials say they believe that Iran was trying to provoke the United States on the eve of the president’s visit to the Middle East.

[...]

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/wo...021&ei=5087%0A

[skhara]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran Accuses U.S. of Faking Persian Gulf Video

I believe the Iranians: "You are about to blow up"

[crusader1492]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

The sad fact is, that even if the US government is telling the truth, they are so distrusted that more and more people are inclined to think the way you do.

The term "false flag operation" has quickly become part of the average person's lexicon since Bush came to power.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

The sad fact is, that even if the US government is telling the truth, they are so distrusted that more and more people are inclined to think the way you do. The term "false flag operation" has quickly become part of the average person's lexicon since Bush came to power.

Accurate take on the matter. I also don't think this was a serious situation. Just look at the video of the incident: A couple of dinky speed boats without armaments "threatening" US Navy warships I think the Pentagon is making a big deal over this for political purposes.