Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran backs Russia over Georgia

Iran has blamed Georgia for its confrontation with Russia and in a reference to Israel and the U.S., urged regional countries to unite against foreign interference. Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Saturday Georgia caused the crisis because it miscalculated the reaction to its use of military power in South Ossetia. Speaking earlier on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the conflict would not have taken place had Georgia “not allowed countries from outside the region to interfere in their internal affairs.” Analysts say that wary of U.S. troop presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has reasons to welcome the reduction of American influence in its northern neighbourhood. Mr. Ahmadinejad further pointed to an Israeli hand in the Caucuses war. Iran’s Fars New Agency, quoting Israeli media reports, said Georgia had commissioned nearly 1,000 military advisers from Israeli security firms to train its armed forces. On Thursday, Mr. Ahmadinejad met Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines of the summit. Apart from the developments in Georgia, the leaders discussed the situation arising out of the Iranian nuclear programme. Now, Russia has decided to send a delegation to discuss the completion of the Russian-aided Bushehr atomic power station. The director of the Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency, Sergei Kireinko, is expected to head the visiting delegation on Sunday. Russia’s Ambassador to Iran had said after all tests are concluded by the end of this year, the plant would be operational in early 2009.

Source: http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/31/stor...3155371400.htm

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Turkey, Iran: Ankara's Priorities Shift

Summary

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s two-day trip to Ankara ended Aug. 15. While the Iranian government and state media have touted his trip as proof that Iran and Turkey are close allies, the Turkish government is far more concerned with containing the current situation in the Caucasus, which could have major implications for Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan.

Analysis

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrapped up a two-day trip to Ankara on Aug. 15. The Iranian government and state media have been hyping Ahmadinejad’s visit to Turkey for days in an attempt to showcase to the world the Iranian belief that Iran and Turkey, as the two principle non-Arab regional powerhouses, are close and natural allies. But while Iran is eager to forge closer ties with Turkey, the Turks do not have much time for Ahmadinejad right now. Ankara has bigger things on its mind, namely the Russians. Turkey is heir to the Ottoman Empire, which once extended deep into the southern Caucasus region where Russia just wrapped up an aggressive military campaign against Georgia. Turkey’s geopolitical interests in the Caucasus have primarily been defensive in nature, focused on keeping the Russians and Persians at bay. Now that Russia is resurging in the Caucasus, the Turks have no choice but to get involved. The Turks primarily rely on their deep ethnic, historical and linguistic ties to Azerbaijan to extend their influence into the Caucasus. Azerbaijan was alarmed, to say the least, when it saw Russian tanks crossing into Georgia. As far as Azerbaijan was concerned, Baku could have been the next target in Russia’s military campaign.

However, Armenia — Azerbaijan’s primary rival — remembers well the 1915 Armenian genocide by the Turks, and looks to Iran and especially Orthodox Christian Russia for its protection. Now that Russia has shown it is willing to act on behalf of allies like South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the Caucasus, the Armenians, while militarily outmatched by the Azerbaijanis, are now feeling bolder and could see this as their chance to preempt Azerbaijan in yet another battle for the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region— especially if it thinks it can look to Russia to militarily intervene on its behalf. The Turks and their ethnic kin in Azerbaijan are extremely wary of Russia’s intentions for the southern Caucasus beyond Georgia. Sources told Stratfor that Azerbaijan has learned that the Russian military jets that bombed Gori and Poti were based out of Armenia. This development not only signaled a significant expansion of Russia’s military presence in the southern Caucasus, but it also implied that Armenia had actually signed off on the Russian foray into Georgia, knowing that Russian dominance over Georgia would guarantee Armenian security and impose a geographic split between Turkey and Azerbaijan. If the Armenians became overly confident and made a move against Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh, expecting Russian support, the resulting war would have a high potential of drawing the Turks into a confrontation with the Russians — something that both NATO member Turkey and Russia have every interest in avoiding.

The Turks also have a precarious economic relationship with Russia. The two countries have expanded their trade with each other significantly in recent years. In the first half of 2008, trade between Russia and Turkey amounted to $19.9 billion, making Russia Turkey’s biggest trading partner. Much of this trade is concentrated in the energy sphere. The Turks currently import approximately 64 percent of the natural gas they consume from the Russians. Though Turkey’s geographic position enables it to pursue energy links in the Middle East and the Caucasus that can bypass Russian territory, the Russians have made it abundantly clear over the past few days that the region’s energy security will still depend on Moscow’s good graces. Turkey’s economic standing also largely depends on its ability to act as a major energy transit hub for the West through pipelines such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which was recently forced offline due to a purported Kurdish militant attack and the war in Georgia. Turkey simply cannot afford to see the Russians continue their surge into the Caucasus and threaten its energy supply.

For these reasons, Turkey is on a mission to keep this tinderbox in the Caucasus contained. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spent the last couple of days meeting with top Russian leaders in Moscow and then with the Georgian president in Tbilisi. During his meetings with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President Dmitri Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Erdogan pushed the idea of creating a Caucasus union that would include both Russia and Georgia. Though this organization would likely be little more than a talk shop, it is a sign of Turkey’s interest in reaching a mutual understanding with Russia that would allow both sides to maintain a comfortable level of influence in the region without coming to blows. The Iranians, meanwhile, are sitting in the backseat. Though Iran has a foothold in the Caucasus through its support for Armenia, the Iranians lack the level of political, military and economic gravitas that Turkey and Russia currently hold in this region. Indeed, Erdogan did not even include Iran in his list of proposed members for the Caucasus union, even though Iran is one of the three major powers bordering the region. The Turks also struck a blow to Iran by holding back from giving Ahmadinejad the satisfaction of sealing a key energy agreement for Iran to provide Turkey with natural gas, preferring instead to preserve its close relationship with the United States and Israel. Turkey simply is not compelled to give Iran the attention that it is seeking at the moment.

The one thing that Turkey can look to Iran for, however, is keeping the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict under control. Iran’s support for Armenia has naturally put Tehran on a collision course with Ankara when dealing with the Caucasus in the past. But when faced with a common threat of a resurgent Russia, both Turkey and Iran can agree to disagree on their conflicting interests in this region and use their leverage to keep Armenia or Azerbaijan from firing off a shot and pulling the surrounding powers into a broader conflict. In light of the recent BTC explosion claimed by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Turkey can also look to Iran to play its part in cracking down on PKK rebels in the region, many of whom have spent the past year fleeing a Turkish crackdown in northern Iraq by traversing through Iran to reach the southern Caucasus. While Iran and Turkey can cooperate in fending off the Russians, it will primarily be up to Turkey to fight the battle in the Caucasus. Russia has thus far responded positively to Turkey’s diplomatic engagements, but in a region with so many conflicting interests, the situation could change in a heartbeat.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/tur...iorities_shift

[robertik1]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13401

September Surprise
Get ready for it…
September 3, 2008



While the rest of the pundits opine about the meaning and implications of Sarah Palin's ascension from small town mayor to prospective vice president – and whether or not her daughter's private life is fair game for any media outlet other than the National Enquirer – those of us whose job it is to stand watch on the ramparts and report the real news are wondering when – not if – the War Party will pull a rabbit out of the proverbial hat. For months, I've been warning in this space that an American attack on Iran is imminent, and now I see that the Dutch have reason to agree with my assessment. Their intelligence service reportedly has pulled out of a covert operation inside Iran on the grounds that a U.S. strike is right around the corner – in "a matter of weeks," according to De Telegraaf, a Dutch newspaper.

As the story goes, the Dutch had infiltrated the purported Iranian weapons project and were firmly ensconced when they got word that the Americans are about to launch a missile attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. They wisely decided to close down the operation and pull out.

Remember, the Israelis have been threatening to strike on their own for months: what's changed is that now, apparently, the U.S. has caved in to what is a blatant case of blackmail and has agreed to do the job for them.

We haven't heard much about Iran lately, at least compared to the scare headlines of a few months ago, when rumors of war were swirling fast and furious. The Russian "threat" seems to have replaced the Iranian "threat" as the War Party's bogeyman of choice. What we didn't know, however, is that the two focal points are intimately related.

According to this report by veteran Washington Times correspondent Arnaud de Borchgrave, the close cooperation of the Israelis with the Georgian military in the run-up to President Saakashvili's blitz of South Ossetia was predicated on a Georgian promise to let the Israelis use Georgia's airfields to mount a strike against Iran.

The main problem for Tel Aviv, in making its threats against Iran at all credible, has been the distance to be covered by Israeli fighter jets, which would have a hard time reaching and returning from their targets without refueling. With access to the airfields of "the Israel of the Caucasus," as de Borchgrave – citing Saakashvili – puts it, the likelihood of an Israeli attack entered the world of real possibilities. De Borchgrave avers:

"In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey.

"The attack ordered by Saakashvili against South Ossetia the night of Aug. 7 provided the Russians the pretext for Moscow to order Special Forces to raid these Israeli facilities where some Israeli drones were reported captured."

Reports of anywhere from 100 to 1,000 Israeli "advisers" in Georgia do not bode well for the situation on the ground. With the Israelis already installed in that country, the logistics of carrying out such a sneak attack are greatly simplified. Israeli pilots would only have to fly over Azerbaijan, and they'd be in Iranian airspace – and within striking distance of Tehran.

Faced with this fait accompli – if the Dutch are to be believed – the Americans seem to have capitulated. In which case, we don't have much time. Although de Borchgrave writes "whether the IAF can still count on those air bases to launch bombing missions against Iran's nuke facilities is now in doubt," I don't see why the defeat of the Georgians in Saakashvili's war on the Ossetians has to mean the plan to strike Iran via Georgia has been canceled. Indeed, reading de Borchgrave's riveting account of the extent of the Tel Aviv-Tbilisi collaboration, one finds additional reasons for all concerned to go ahead with it:

"Saakashvili was convinced that by sending 2,000 of his soldiers to serve in Iraq (who were immediately flown home by the United States when Russia launched a massive counterattack into Georgia), he would be rewarded for his loyalty. He could not believe President Bush, a personal friend, would leave him in the lurch. Georgia, as Saakashvili saw his country's role, was the 'Israel of the Caucasus.'"

Saakashvili, a vain and reckless man, now has even more reason to go behind Uncle Sam's back and give the Israelis a clear shot at Tehran. With this sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of the Americans, the rationale for a more limited, shot-across-the-bow strike by the U.S. becomes all too clear.

After all, if the Israelis attacked, the entire Muslim world would unite behind the Iranians. If, on the other had, the U.S. did Israel's dirty work, with Tel Aviv lurking in the background, it would conceivably be far less provocative, and might even generate sub rosa support among the Sunni rulers of America's Arab allies. It's going to happen anyway, goes the rationale, and so we might as well do it the right way, rather than leave it to the Israelis, who have threatened – via "independent" commentators like Israeli historian and super hawk Benny Morris – to use nuclear weapons on Iran's population centers.

In terms of American domestic politics, the road to war with Tehran was paved long ago: both major parties and their presidential candidates have given the War Party a green light to strike Tehran, McCain explicitly and Obama tacitly, albeit no less firmly.

The stage is set, rehearsals are over, and the actors know their lines: as the curtain goes up on the first act of "World War III," take a deep breath and pray to the gods that this deadly drama is aborted.
~ Justin Raimondo

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Iran: Reaping Benefits From a BTC Shutdown

Summary

Azerbaijan has begun sending shipments of crude for transit via Iran, since the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is shut down. Azerbaijan said the shipments to Iran will only continue while the BTC is down, but since Russia is calling the shots on the pipeline, Iran could become a regular transit option for Azeri oil. If this occurs, the entire region could experience a shift, and the U.S. position in negotiations with Iran could weaken.

Analysis

Iran received its first cargo of Azeri crude for transit Aug. 24, the Iranian Oil Ministry’s news agency, Shana, said on its Web site. The shipment falls under a longstanding oil swap deal Iran has with quite a few Caspian oil-producing nations, though Azerbaijan has never fulfilled the order. Azerbaijan says the shipments will only last as long as its Western route for oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline is shut down, but with the Russians calling the shots on the BTC, Iran could become a regular option for Azerbaijani crude — something that could shift the entire region. Azerbaijan’s ability to ship its large energy wealth to the West has been doubly hit in the past few weeks. First, transport through the BTC line, which carries 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from Azerbaijan’s capital to the Turkish Mediterranean and on to Europe, was halted when a fire erupted Aug. 5 — possibly the result of a Kurdish attack — in the Turkish section of the line. That setback was compounded by the Russia-Georgia war which not only halted oil shipments through the BTC regardless of the condition of the Turkish section, but also stopped exports via the Baku-Supsa pipeline and by rail from Azerbaijan to Georgia.

Azerbaijan ended up sending approximately 100,000 bpd of oil — a small fraction of what the country is capable of — north through Russia through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. The cessation of most of its oil production has put Azerbaijan in a really difficult place financially, since so much of the country’s economy is based on energy revenues. But even if the BTC and Georgian options are back up and running, Azerbaijan now knows it has to get the Russians approval for its energy to flow to the West. One of the only other options for Azeri crude is to go to Iran, which holds oil swap deals with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia and Azerbaijan. Under the deal, the Caspian producers ship their oil by sea to the Iranian port of Neka, where it flows through a new pipeline to refineries outside of Tehran where it is used for domestic consumption. Iran then exports the same amount of crude from its southern oil fields on behalf of the Caspian suppliers and avoids the cost of shipping its Persian Gulf production north to its Tehran refineries.

Most of the Caspian producers though do not take an active part in the oil swap project because they prefer to fill their existing contracts to Russia or Europe. Kazakhstan has typically been the main Caspian producer to fulfill the oil swap contracts, though the flow from Kazakhstan is not steady. Also, Kazakhstan mostly sends its heavier crude to Iran — a burden for Iran’s refineries, which refine mainly sweet, light crude. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has just as light and sweet of crude as Iran and is a good fit for Iranian refineries. The Azerbaijani oil is produced by BP, but the oil swap program is not considered an investment into Iran and thus avoids sanction violations. Azerbaijan reportedly only sent 200,000 barrels in this shipment to Iran, though Neka and its pipelines to Tabriz, Tehran and Rey can handle 300,000 barrels. Although the Azeri Energy Ministry said shipments to Iran would only continue while the country’s westward routes were down, with Russia’s move deeper into the Caucasus, shipping oil to Iran could become a recurring option for Baku. This means Iran could free up another 300,000 bpd or more of crude, changing two situations.

First, Iran suffers from severe energy problems, despite ranking among the top three countries in proven oil and natural gas reserves. The main problem is Iran’s lack of refining capacity, but another large problem is that the Iranians send crude northward for refining in the country’s population centers, while the export routes are mainly in the south. This is a costly arrangement. The oil swap program was meant to solve this problem, but none of the Caspian oil producers would fill the contracts because they had better alternatives. With all of Azerbaijan’s alternative energy routes threatened, things have changed for Iran. This leads to the second situation: Iran will be able to export more oil instead of using so much domestically. Iran is the second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, behind regional rival Saudi Arabia. However, thanks to a more favorable investment climate, Saudi Arabia produces nearly triple the amount of oil. Iran freeing up some of its oil for export is something Riyadh will definitely notice — and not happily.

This plays into not just Middle Eastern regional politics, but also Iran’s ability to hold its own during negotiations with the West, particularly the United States. Iran has been under pressure domestically, with many issues tied to its fragile energy situation and the sanctions the West has imposed. But while Russia’s moves in the Caucasus are grabbing the United States’ attention during Washington’s tough negotiations with Tehran, the ripple effects could help weaken the United States’ pressure on Iran.

Source: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/ira...s_btc_shutdown

[freakyfreaky]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Then, of course, you have this line of thought.

4/10/06 - video mashes Beach Boys "Barbara Ann" with George Bush and xxxx Cheney singing about bombing Iran. http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...26890212250833

4/18/07 McCain jokes singing "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg

1/08 - Senator Joe Lieberman helps Republican presidential candidate woo xxxish vote in Florida for the Republican primary. http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

3/08 - McCain visits Middle East with Lieberman in tow. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/us...+mccain&st=nyt

3/08 - McCain says he was joking when he sang about bombing Iran. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2v8c...eature=related

Joe Lieberman is a honorary co-chairman of the Committee of Present Danger. http://www.committeeonthepresentdanger.org/
http://www.committeeonthepresentdang...4/Default.aspx

Joe Lieberman jumps across the aisle and endorses McCain for President while taking low blow at Obama at Republican National Convention; Senator Reid fumes. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?hpid=topnews

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

Interesting.

Russian units raid Georgian airfields for use in Israeli strike against Iran – report

The raids were disclosed by UPI chief editor Arnaud de Borchgrave, who is also on the Washington Times staff, and picked up by the Iranian Fars news agency. The Russian raids of two Georgian airfields, which Tbilisi had allowed Israel to use for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, followed the Georgian offensive against South Ossetia on Aug. 7. Under the secret agreement with Georgia, the airfields had been earmarked for use by Israeli fighter-bombers taking off to strike Iran in return for training and arms supplies. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that flying from S. Georgia over the Caspian Sea to Iran would sharply trim the distance to be spanned by Israeli fighter-bombers, reducing flying time to 3.5 hours. Northern Iran and the Tehran region, where most of the nuclear facilities are concentrated, would be within range, with no need to request US permission to pass through Iraq air space. Russian Special Forces also raided other Israeli facilities in southern Georgia and captured Israeli spy drones, says the report. Israel was said to have used the two airfields to “conduct recon flights over southern Russia as well as into nearby Iran.” The US intelligence sources quoted by UPI reported that the Russian force also carried home other Israeli military equipment captured at the air bases. Our sources say that if the Russians got hold of an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle complete with sophisticated electronic reconnaissance equipment, they will have secured some of the IDF’s most secret devices for spying on Iran and Syria. When this happened before, Russian military engineers quickly dismantled the equipment, studied it and passed the technology on to Tehran and Damascus.

Source: http://www.debka.com/index1.php

[Armanen]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

The article states that Russian special forces were in southern georgia, I wonder if they got there through Russia or from the base in Gyumri, since that is closer. Otherwise good article, and I hope the Russians start to make their own unmanned aerial vehicles.

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

The article states that Russian special forces were in southern georgia, I wonder if they got there through Russia or from the base in Gyumri, since that is closer. Otherwise good article, and I hope the Russians start to make their own unmanned aerial vehicles.

They have been working on it for several years now. The following Kommersant report came out just today:

Russian Army Gets New Drones

The Vega Radio Engineering Corp. has begun delivery of Tipchak unpiloted recognizance complexes to the Russian armed forces, Vega general director Vladimir Verba told Interfax. The first complex will be on duty this year and may be used in “hot spots.” The Tipchak complex was developed by the Luch Design Bureau in Rybinsk. It is intended for recognizance at any time of day with the goal of the discovery, recognition determination of the coordinates of a target in real time within a range of 40 km. from its launch point. Every complex consists of six drones, a transport and launch vehicle, antenna, guidance apparatus and maintenance equipment. The drone is launched by a pneumatic catapult and lands with the use of a parachute. The 50-kg. unit has a piston that is able to propel it at speeds up to 55 km. per hour. It is capable of flights lasting up to two hours. It carries a high-resolution camera that working in normal and infrared light.

Source: http://www.kommersant.com/p-13159/we..._recognizance/

***********************

And this 'stealth' drone by the MIG design bureau was unveiled by Moscow last year:

Russia unveils 'stealth' bomber

Russia unveiled on Thursday the mock-up of a pilotless bomber plane that its constructors say will be even better than the famous US stealth fighter at evading enemy radars and anti-aircraft fire. NTV television showed a full-sized model of the bat-like plane known as Skat, which means "stingray", at an airshow just outside Moscow - the first public glimpse of the project run by Russia's MiG corporation. The aircraft has a flattened, swept-back profile reminiscent of the US air force's stealth aircraft, with a bubble-like xxxxpit area, although the plane will not have a pilot, NTV reported. According to the report, the Skat's constructors claim the stealth technology will make it even less vulnerable than the US version to radar detection. "Many firms are trying to work in this area, but few so far have achieved results. Today we have begun real work on building an assault craft," the director of MiG's Mikoyan design bureau, Vladimir Barkovsky, said on NTV television. RIA Novosti news agency quoted Barkovsky saying that the Skat will be able to attack land and sea targets, particularly enemy anti-aircraft sites, even if coming under heavy fire. It will weigh 10 tons, be able to carry up to two tons of ordnance and have a range of 4 000km, RIA Novosti reported.

Source: http://www.news24.com/News24/World/N...170002,00.html

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

The photo posted by the Kommersant is wrong. That one is a large but old Tupolev model.

The new one being acquired by the Russian Army is the TIPCHAK made by the Vega corporation www.vega.su

It is a small one (about 50 kg) to be used at the Regimental level.

The Russians already use the larger PCHELA at the divisional level.

There are large number of UAV, UCAV, etc being developped in Russia. Many models are going to end up in the inventory of the Army.

Here are a few photos about the TIPCHAK (the one mentioned in the article).

[Armenian]

Re: Consequences Of Attacking Iran And Why Tehran Is Not Worried

The photo posted by the Kommersant is wrong. That one is a large but old Tupolev model.

Good observation. I normally have a habit of placing appropriate pictures with articles or essays I post. Since the Kommersant's report included pictures, I picked one, not bothering to check for accuracy. Do you have a military background?