Is turkey in the kooker?

[Azad]

With the Armenian Genocide bill passage (even lantos voted for it ... we all know where he gets his orders) ... is Washington finally starting the turkish/Kurdish chess game?
The smartest move from turkey will be to do nothing. Knowing how they reason would this be the beginning of a new shift of American policy ....

1- Backing Kurds to establish a centralized country that will serve better US’s interest.

2- Dumping the Iraq problem in the turk’s lap so we can free the troops for Iran.


I am very curious what would be the next moves from both sides. We all worked hard on having this bill pass .... something tells me it goes beyond the obvious.

What are your views and predictions?

[Azad]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

turkey's first moves ...

"ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Two colleagues of slain Armenian-Turkish editor Hrant Dink have received suspended jail sentences for insulting Turkishness under a controversial law limiting free speech, their newspaper said on Thursday."

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20071011/tpl-uk-turkey-rights-dink-820eaf9.html

"Turkish officials have warned if the resolution goes on to a full vote in the House and is approved, Turkey would reassess its assistance to the U.S. war effort in Iraq, The New York Times reported."

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2007/10/11/armenian_genocide_issue_irks_turkey_bush/8183/

[Azad]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?



"Demonstrators hold Turkish flags and a banner that reads: 'I can't stand, seeing, even American tourists' during a protest in front of the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2007. Hundreds of Turks marched to the U.S. Embassy in Turkey to protest a U.S. bill declaring the World War I-era killings of Armenians a genocide, local media reported. The demonstrations in Istanbul and Ankara came a day after the United States Embassy urged its citizens to be alert toward possible violence if a committee in the House of Representatives votes in favor of the genocide bill, a move that would be considered an insult by most Turks. (AP Photo/Str)"

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

I hope Turkey is digging it's own grave.

[Azad]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

I hope Turkey is digging it's own grave.

If I was a turk I will not let these "gavour" humiliate my turkish honor ... if I was a turk I will definitely have a major retribution towards the US and Europe ... I would be angry to anyone and anything that is not honorable like my crypto kemal from Thessaloniki.

[Azad]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

"ANKARA, Turkey - Turkey ordered its ambassador in Washington to return to Turkey for consultations over a U.S. House panel's approval of a bill describing the World War I-era mass killings of Armenians as genocide, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said Thursday."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071011/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us_genocide

[Azad]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

"But House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stressed: "It has come out of committee and it will go to the floor." Reports said a debate by the chamber as a whole was likely in November......
Asked whether she was concerned a heated House debate could damage the crucial alliance between the United States and its NATO partner Turkey, Pelosi said she had been hearing such talk for 20 years...."

"Those who claim Turkey is bluffing should not mock Turkey on live TV," Bagis said after several House members suggested in Wednesday's debate that any Turkish reaction would be short-lived."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071011/pl_afp/uspoliticsarmeniaturkeyhistory_071011175453

[Armenian]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

None of us should be holding our breaths. These types of geopolitically sensitive issues are not decided democratically. At some point a high ranking official will step in and pull the plug - like they did during Clinton's administration. Nevertheless, we did, once again, make a good show of force. Not bad for a tiny little minority, eh?

[Azad]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

None of us should be holding our breaths. These types of geopolitically sensitive issues are not decided democratically. At some point a high ranking official will step in and pull the plug - like they did during Clinton's administration. Nevertheless, we did, once again, make a good show of force. Not bad for a tiny little minority, eh?

Chances are the higher powers that do operate in the background could be using us to promote their bigger vision (won't be the first time).
Notice the synchronized swimming of our "friends"...

"Jooish Telegraphic Agency, NY
Oct 11 2007

Seven of eight Jooish members on a U.S. congressional committee voted
for a resolution to recognize the Armenian genocide."

http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg205575.html

[Armenian]

Re: Is turkey in the kooker?

Chances are the higher powers that do operate in the background could be using us to promote their bigger vision (won't be the first time)

Support Wanes in House for Genocide Vote


Representative Allen Boyd, a Florida Democrat, on Monday dropped his sponsorship of a resolution that would condemn as genocide the mass killings of Armenians nearly a century ago.


WASHINGTON, Oct. 16 — Worried about antagonizing Turkish leaders, House members from both parties have begun to withdraw their support from a resolution backed by the Democratic leadership that would condemn as genocide the mass killings of Armenians nearly a century ago. Almost a dozen lawmakers had shifted against the measure in a 24-hour period ending Tuesday night, accelerating a sudden exodus that has cast deep doubt over the measure’s prospects. Some made clear that they were heeding warnings from the White House, which has called the measure dangerously provocative, and from the Turkish government, which has said House passage would prompt Turkey to reconsider its ties to the United States, including logistical support for the Iraq war.

Until Tuesday, the measure appeared on a path to House passage, with strong support from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. It was approved last week by the House Foreign Affairs Committee. But by Tuesday evening, a group of senior House Democrats had made it known that they were planning to ask the leadership to drop plans for a vote on the measure.

“Turkey obviously feels they are getting poked in the eye over something that happened a century ago and maybe this isn’t a good time to be doing that,” said Representative Allen Boyd, a Florida Democrat who dropped his sponsorship of the resolution on Monday night. Others who took the same action said that, while they deplored the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire, the modern-day consequences in the Middle East could not be overlooked.

“We simply cannot allow the grievances of the past, as real as they may be, to in any way derail our efforts to prevent further atrocities for future history books,” said Representative Wally Herger, Republican of California. Representative Mike Ross, Democrat of Arkansas, said, “I think it is a good resolution and horrible timing.”

The Turkish government has lobbied heavily against the resolution, which is nonbinding and largely symbolic. But lawmakers attributed the erosion in support mainly to fears about a potential Turkish decision to deny American access to critical military facilities in that nation and its threat to move forces into northern Iraq.

“This vote came face to face with the reality on the ground in that region of the world,” said Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus and an opponent of the resolution. The Bush administration and top American generals have been vocal in warning that passage of the resolution could cause great harm to the American war effort in Iraq and have put significant pressure on Republicans to abandon their support for the measure. President Bush called Ms. Pelosi on Tuesday and asked her to prevent a floor vote.

“The president and the speaker exchanged candid views on the subject and the speaker explained the strong bipartisan support in the House for the resolution,” said Brendan Daly, a spokesman for Ms. Pelosi.

The Democratic leadership was examining the exact level of that support to gauge its next step, but lawmakers and officials said it was now unclear whether the resolution could be approved, given Republican resistance and Democratic defections. “We will have to determine where everyone is,” said Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, the majority leader. Ms. Pelosi, who has promised a vote on the resolution if it cleared the committee, said she was leaving it to its chief backers to round up votes. “I have never known a count,” she said.

Backers of the resolution, which has the fervent support of the Armenian-American community, described the shift as slight and attributed it to the intense lobbying by the Turkish government, the administration and their allies. They said they would try to change the minds of some of those who were wavering.

“This is what happens when you are up against a very sophisticated multimillion-dollar campaign,” said Representative Brad Sherman, Democrat of California, who chided the Turkish government. “Since when has it become fashionable for friends to threaten friends?”

But he acknowledged there was little margin of error for backers of the resolution, which had once boasted 225 co-sponsors. “If the vote were held today, I would not want to bet my house on the outcome,” he said. Mr. Sherman and others noted that at the start of the war Turkey had refused to let American forces operate from its territory and that its intentions toward the northern border of Iraq clearly captured the attention of Congress.

American military officials in Iraq and in Washington said Tuesday they were concerned about possible Turkish military raids into northern Iraq against the Kurdish Workers Party, an ethnic separatist movement also known as the P.K.K. At the moment, they said, they did not see many indications that the Turkish military was preparing for a large-scale incursion into the insurgents’ mountainous strongholds and expressed hope that diplomatic efforts under way between Iraqi and Turkish officials would ease the crisis, which was sparked by a wave of attacks in eastern Turkey that its government has blamed on the separatists.

“We see no signs that there’s anything imminent by Turkey,” said one senior military officer, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was discussing military contingency planning. “So there’s time for the diplomacy to work for a few more days, if not weeks.” But, he added, the situation could get “ugly” if Turkey sent troops across the border and they clashed with Kurdish militias or Iraqi forces.

The biggest fear, several former officials said, is that Turkish forces could push past the border and head for Kirkuk. Such a move could force Iraq to respond and the United States to mediate between two allies, and decide whether to intervene. Such a crisis could also draw in Iran, which has also had growing problems with Kurdish groups crossing into its territory from Iraq. In addition to the potential movement of Turkish forces, opponents of the resolution continued to point to Turkey’s role as a staging area for moving American military supplies into Iraq.

“This happened a long time ago and I don’t know whether it was a massacre or a genocide, that is beside the point,” said Representative John P. Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat who is urging Ms. Pelosi to keep the resolution from the floor. “The point is, we have to deal with today’s world.”

While the resolution enjoyed more than enough support to pass earlier this year, about two dozen lawmakers have removed their names from the official list of sponsors in recent weeks as the vote grew more likely and the reservations grew more pronounced.

“I think there was genocide in Turkey in 1915 but I am gravely concerned about the timing,” said Representative Jane Harman, a California Democrat. She said she would remain a co-sponsor of the resolution but at the moment would oppose it reached the floor. Representative Doug Lamborn, a Colorado Republican who dropped his backing on Tuesday, said: “Nothing changes the fact that mass killings and unspeakable acts of brutality occurred. However, passing this nonbinding resolution at this critical time would be a destabilizing action when the United States needs the help of its allies, including Turkey, in fighting the global war on terror.”

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/17/wa...&hp&oref=login