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Middle East

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  • #11
    Re: Middle East

    Originally posted by Mher View Post
    Thank you very much for the update
    Appreciate it
    Do you have a source for this?
    Here's them releasing the kids: http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/0...dren-abducted/ The count of 11 is my own personal count over the last year. Unclear if any of the ones kidnapped over the last year have been released. The kidnapping toll is most likely higher.
    Azerbaboon: 9.000 Google hits and counting!

    Comment


    • #12
      Re: Middle East

      Originally posted by Federate View Post
      Here's them releasing the kids: http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/0...dren-abducted/ The count of 11 is my own personal count over the last year. Unclear if any of the ones kidnapped over the last year have been released. The kidnapping toll is most likely higher.
      thank you for the information

      Comment


      • #13
        Re: Middle East

        Gagik Harutyunyan
        Executive Director, Noravank Scientific Educational Foundation, Yerevan

        "In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president
        to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle
        East or Africa should have his head examined."

        Robert Gates, US Secretary of Defense (2006-2011)

        Today hardly anyone would contest the fact that scrambling for spheres
        of influence on the world-scale, which started at the end of 20th
        century with monopole domination, now transforms into a multi-vector
        persistent standoff. It takes place by some new rules (sometimes no
        rules) of multipolar world order that have not been fully established
        yet and hence, are still more than vague [1]. This new order is
        first of all characterized by the circumstance that the United States
        remains the world leader, but no longer is the hegemon. Interestingly,
        some even predict breakdown of the superpower, among which are not
        only somewhat opinionated characters, such as Paul C. Roberts, former
        Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration (one
        of the fathers of Reaganomics) and Gerald Celente, Director of the
        Trends Research Institute, but also some renowned university professors
        (see, for example [2]). Another worrisome signal is persecution of
        dissidents like J. Assange and E. Snowden, who made stands against
        total informational control. Actions against such people (due to
        which even a "prisoner of conscience" emerged, Private B. Manning)
        once again actualized the ingenious works of George Orwell.

        However, if one prescinds from predictions and follows the more
        realistic wording of Fareed Zakaria, in the post-American World
        strengthening of other geopolitical actors has significantly changed
        and continues to change the balance of powers in the world arena [3].

        Processes occurring against this backdrop have significantly reduced
        the level of global security, especially as far as the nuclear area is
        concerned. The observed trend differs from assumptions previously made
        by some experts that multi-polarity would lead to global stabilization,
        as it happened, for example, in the era of bipolar Cold War. However,
        it cannot be ruled out that after a "transition period" of the
        multicenter world evolvement something like a Peace of Westphalia
        would be concluded and relative stability would follow.

        The logic of "new times" is most vividly reflected in developments in
        the "New Middle East" (NME), a sizable segment of Eurasia and Africa
        from Morocco to Pakistan. The USA made a decision to reduce their
        military presence in this region - they withdraw troops from Iraq and
        Afghanistan, which is related to the shortage of economic resources.

        At the same time military retreat is accompanied with increasing
        activity by European and regional partners and intensification of some
        traditional, and most of all, non-traditional political methods. One
        way or another, it has to be noted that military/political upheavals
        of the recent years lead to destabilization of the NME. Moreover,
        these developments resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe, which can
        be well classified as genocide.

        Currently there is a wide range of interpretations of the political
        processes in the conditions of "new times". We believe that
        such multitude of interpretations contributes to a more adequate
        comprehension of realities and therefore, we would like to share
        our perception of these problems as well. However, for more or less
        proper discussion of these complicated issues, we will first attempt
        to briefly present some characteristic traits of the multipolar world.

        "This multipolar world"

        The meanings of political terms change over time and this is the case
        with "multi-polarity". The content of this notion has considerably
        expanded, first of all because the word "multi" now encompasses not
        only nation-states, but also non-government structures (this new
        world has been quite vividly described by Parag Khanna [4]). These
        structures can be conditionally divided into following categories.

        The role transnational corporations (TNC) has increased in the world
        economy, with their financial and organizational capabilities on a
        par with and sometimes even exceeding those of developed states.

        Previously the TNCs were directly or indirectly associated to one
        country or another, but now some of them act quite independently,
        based exclusively on their own interests.

        According to some Swiss researchers1 the core of TNCs consists of 147
        corporations that combined with their partners and subsidiaries control
        60% of the total world GDP. Characteristically, this consortium is
        dominated not by production companies, but by financial corporations,
        such asBarclays, JP Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch & Co Inc., etc. Under
        such circumstances it is no surprise that the "super TNCs" are quite
        capable of dictating their conditions to the governments of nation
        states. The developments in the system of "government - finance sector"
        relationships fully correspond to the concept of "post-democratic"
        society described by the English sociologist Colin Crouch as domination
        of oligarchy in the government system and erosion of democratic norms
        in the Western societies [5].

        The second category consists of international non-government
        organizations (NGOs), the number of which has significantly increased
        over the past decade, mostly due to their replication in countries.

        The influence of these network-mode operating organizations has
        respectively increased: for example, the "color revolutions" in
        ex-Soviet republics and Middle East were implemented with direct
        contribution from some NGOs. In the past the NGOs, as well as TNCs were
        perceived solely as tools in the political arsenal of superpowers. Some
        countries (particularly Russia) attempted to legislatively constrain
        the influence of these NGOs in their domestic political affairs. Notice
        that such actions became possible only after establishment of the
        multipolar form, since in the past NGOs enjoyed kind of a "sacred cows"
        status and even criticizing them was considered an encroachment on
        fundamentals of democracy.

        However, over the time NGOs began transforming. The mosaic of
        information flows leaves an impression that some strengthened NGOs
        (especially those with ideological orientation) have started acting a
        lot more independently. Currently they take contracts not only from
        specific government structures, but service political and financial
        groups (e.g. TNCs) both inside and outside their countries, as well as
        act autonomously at their own discretion. To a large extent this is
        because part of the NGOs are ideology-driven, following the concepts
        of M. Bettati and B. Kouchner on necessity to "protect human rights
        despite national sovereignty", which in 2005 became an international
        legal norm in the form of the UN resolution "Responsibility to
        Protect."2 It is well known that treating any idea as a cure-all
        is fraught with unpredictable outcomes, and the consequences of NGO
        actions in the Middle East vividly demonstrate this.

        Various religious/confessional structures, both traditional and
        relatively recently formed (often as different types of sects) also
        have to be included in the category of non-government organizations.

        Such structures, conditionally speaking, have been using network
        management methods since long ago, and their role steadily increases
        not only in the public life, but also in international politics. In
        particular, the political standoff in the Middle East took the shape
        of a fierce confrontation between representatives of various Sunni
        and Shia sects, Islamists and Anti-Islamists, and in this background
        of intolerance the Christian communities of the region were pushed
        to the brink of extinction.

        In the epoch of multi-stage informational revolution the large media,
        Internet corporations and the like have to be included in the group
        of influential non-government actors. The virtual social networks had
        gained special prominence, in particular, playing important role in
        the Middle East revolutions. Total "facebookization" of the entire
        planet has a serious influence on the societies of all countries [6].

        It has to be noted that monopolization of resources takes place also in
        information sphere and for instance, control over the print media is
        concentrated in the hands of five media giants3. All these structures
        conduct global informational politics, something that rather than
        being a supplementary and stimulating process to the politics, is
        defined by RAND Corporation experts as a political genre in its own
        right - Noopolitik4, in full accordance with the concept of second
        generation informational warfare [7].

        The information flows currently form the system of values and mentality
        of the whole world community more than ever. Unsurprisingly, big
        players of this sphere pursue also their own interests, to an extent
        ignoring the state interests and even more so, the public ones.

        Typically, the information space was previously dominated by western
        media. However, due to the "multipolar trends" today the media from
        other countries, first of all Russia and China, try to compete with
        them. As a result, even the global "newspeak" has been somewhat
        changing. For example, in the comments on Syria along with such
        cliché as "opposition" or, as a last resort, "rebels", more adequate
        definitions like "militants" and "mercenaries" are occasionally used.

        And finally, the role of terrorist and other criminal structures
        has increased in international developments. These structures have
        always maintained ambiguous and complicated relations with intelligence
        services of various countries and were considered their instruments of
        sorts in shadow politics. However with the changed situation some of
        them escaped the control and play their own games, which admittedly,
        happened both in the past and during the recent developments in Syria.

        Because of the large number of "variables", intricacies of conflicts
        and collaborations taking place in parallel, the world order that
        is being formed represents a lot more complicated system than it
        used to be during the era of bipolar or monopole world orders. As
        some commentators note, in a way the world has regressed into
        pre-Westphalia epoch, albeit adjusted for Internet and weapons of
        mass destruction. Such situation objectively makes it difficult to
        comprehend and conceptualize the quickly changing characteristics
        of the surrounding world. Naturally, this makes it harder to
        respond appropriately to such changes. In the current conditions
        likelihood of making mistakes increases, even for the USA - the most
        "intellectualized" power, the policies of which are formed to a certain
        extent in a substrate consisting of a multitude of high-class think
        tanks, universities and scientific centers. In this context it is
        understandable that in their studies the US military experts emphasize
        the importance of strengthening the government institutions5. However,
        in some specific cases collisions of a different nature may take place;
        for instance, strengthening of the national military-industrial complex
        may lead to creation of so-called "states within a state" [8, p. 196].

        The combination of all these factors leads to crises felt not only
        in economy, but also in all areas of public and international life.

        Understandably, today one may often come across eschatological
        interpretations of the processes occurring around the world. All of
        this is most vividly and dramatically exhibited in the Middle East
        developments.

        "Clear skies over the whole Middle East"

        It appears that the multitude of motives and final objectives is a
        characteristic trait of processes in the Middle East. If all known
        publications on this issue are to be summarized based on the dominant
        attributes, then the following versions will emerge, that in no way
        contradict to each other, but rather are mutually supplemental.

        The version of "Arab spring". The main thesis of this version is that
        socio-economic, demographic, ethnic and religious/confessional problems
        accumulated into a critical mass in the countries of the region. This
        resulted in mass protests with demands of reforms, modernization and
        democratization in accordance with the modern notions.

        There is no doubt that in the Middle East problems were more than
        abundant. This issue has been discussed in many fundamental works6,
        and yet another proof of it is the Revolting Index7, where among the
        top 16 countries five are Arab states. Yet nothing special happened
        to date in many other countries, which are a lot more "advanced"
        in revolutionary sense according to the same rating list. Perhaps,
        the Arab societies would have selected the evolutionary development
        path if these objective domestic circumstances were not aggravated
        by some external factors, such as launching the known technologies of
        color revolutions, this time with an accentuation on "Friday prayers".

        Organizations like April 6 Youth Movement and the one with "Kefaya"
        (Enough!) moniker (remember "Kmara" in Georgia) played an important
        role in this. In addition, the protest movement made use of such
        effective tools of informational operations as social media and
        blogosphere8. For instance, already in June 2010 Wael Ghonim, Head
        of Google Middle East and North Africa opened an anti-Mubarak page in
        Facebook, where daily visits at some point reached half a million. It
        cannot be ruled out that in this particular case action came not so
        much from the USA and its allies, but from independently operating
        "democratizing" NGOs together with giant media, which enthusiastically
        commented on the events and in every possible way encouraged Tahrir
        Square rally participants.

        A conclusion can be made from all of this that it is hard to imagine
        a revolutionary movement without objective prerequisites, but in the
        modern world it is equally hard to imagine mass public movements
        without external resource contributions, whether from states or
        new entities of the multipolar order. That is not to mention direct
        military interventions, such as in the case with Libya. But this brings
        us closer to the version of geopolitical motives in these events.

        The version of "Geopolitics". According to this approach the
        revolutionary movements were not necessarily initiated for
        modernization of Arab countries and their integration in the global
        community (as in fact, just the opposite thing happened), but for
        achieving certain geopolitical objectives. Such statement of issue is
        logical and not too original, because at least in the last decades (or
        by some opinions - in the last hundred years) externally instigated
        revolutions pursued exactly such objectives. However, previously
        these final goals were relatively clear and hence, needed no special
        deciphering. In case of the processes in the Arab world the plot
        is much more complicated, especially given the prior history of the
        issue and specifically the American intervention in Iraq in 2003.
        Hayastan or Bust.

        Comment

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