War in The Middle East

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http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=51911

WND Exclusive FROM WND'S JERUSALEM BUREAU
'Syria will form own Hezbollah'
Israeli intel chief says Damascus seeking to copy Lebanese group
Posted: September 11, 2006
1:00 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein
© 2006 WorldNetDaily.com

JERUSALEM – Syria is considering forming its own Hezbollah-like guerrilla organization to fight Israel in hopes of "liberating" the Golan Heights, the chief of intelligence for the Israeli Defense Forces announced yesterday.

Speaking at a government meeting, the IDF's Major General Amos Yadlin said Syria is in the initial stages of developing the concept for the copycat Hezbollah group, which he said would launch attacks aimed at pressuring Israel into vacating the Golan Heights, strategic mountainous territory captured by the xxxish state after Syria used the terrain to attack Israel in 1967 and again in 1973. The Heights borders Israel, Syria and Lebanon and is claimed by Damascus.

Yadlin's announcement comes one month after WND broke the story that following its estimation Hezbollah was victorious during military confrontations with the xxxish state, Syria is in the process of forming what an official from Syrian President Bashar Assad's Baath Party called the Front for the Liberation of the Golan Heights, a new "resistance" group that models itself after Hezbollah.

The official told WND the Front will attempt attacks to force Israel from the Golan.

Military officials here have long maintained returning the Golan Heights to Syria would grant Damascus the ability to mount an effective ground invasion of the xxxish state. The territory looks down on major Israeli and Syrian population centers.

The Baath party official told WND Syria learned from Hezbollah's military campaign against Israel the past month that "fighting" is more effective than peace negotiations with regard to gaining territory.

Hezbollah claims its goal is to liberate the Shebaa Farms, a small, 125-square-mile bloc situated between Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The cease-fire resolution accepted by Israel to end its military campaign in Lebanon calls for negotiations leading to Israel's relinquishing of the Shebaa Farms.

The Baath official told WND the Front for the Liberation of the Golan Heights was formed in June and that the group currently consists of Syrian volunteers, many from the Syrian border with Turkey and from Palestinian refugee camps near Damascus. He said Syria held registration for volunteers to join the Front in June.

One week after the WND article detailing the claimed group was published, state-run Al-Alam Iranian television featured an interview with a man who identified himself as the leader of the new Front for the Liberation of the Golan Heights.

The man, whose features were blocked out, said his new group consists of "hundreds" of fighters who are training for guerrilla-like raids against Israeli positions in and near the Golan. He claimed the Front has opened several training camps inside Syria.

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Another serious political blow to Zionist and Globalist aspirations in Lebanon. The Syrian-backed opposition claims victory in the paliamentary elections in Lebanon. The margin of victory of the election, which essentially split the Christian vote, is said to have been small. Interestingly, Armenians of Lebanon under the leadership of the Dashnak party have played a pivotal role in helping elect the pro-Syrian Christian candidate, Michel Aoun, by not participating in the elections. As a result, the Western/Israeli-backed Phalage party leadership has resorted to blaming the Armenians of Burjhamud, an Armenian enclave in Beirut, for loosing the election. Once again, Armenians of Lebanon, specifically the Dashnaktsutyun, have show political maturity by not falling victim to Western and Zionist manipulations. And I'm sure that this is welcome news both in Damascus and Tehran.

Armenian

Syrian-backed opposition claims victory in Lebanon poll



Lebanon's Western-backed ruling majority was dealt a blow on Monday in by-elections that split the country's Christian camp in two and boosted the Syrian-backed opposition ahead of a presidential poll. Official results showed the candidate representing opposition leader Michel Aoun winning by a slim margin of 418 votes over former president Amin Gemayel, who was supported by the ruling Western-backed coalition.

Camille Khoury won 39,534 votes as against 39,116 for Gemayel. Aoun and Gemayel both made separate calls for unity after the results were announced but bickered over who has the mandate to represent their community. "These elections have shown that the solution to the Lebanese crisis is found in respect for institutions. This is why I am calling for reconciliation between Christians... so that presidential commitments can be respected," Gemayel told a news conference.

"These elections were effectively a test. They have shown that General Aoun's support is in broad decline in Christian regions because of the policies he has followed." Aoun seemed to strike a conciliatory note in a subsequent news conference of his own, but also claimed support from all Christian confessions as well as Sunni and Shiite Muslims. "Gemayel has spoken of a reconciliation under the aegis of the Maronite (Christian) patriarch. We are in agreement on this and I extend my hand," he said.

"But I dispute his analysis that I am not representative of Christians. Maronites are not the only Christians," he added. Aoun called the Metn region where Sunday's vote took place a "microcosm" of Lebanese society: "There are Maronites, Orthodox, Armenians, Shiites and Sunnis. We won in a diverse constituency, which means we are popular in all the communities."

The by-elections were to replace two murdered anti-Syrian MPs, the latest in a spate of politically linked killings that have rocked the country since the 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. The outcome of the vote was important as it showed which way the country's divided Christian community was leaning ahead of a presidential election scheduled for next month. Lebanon's president is traditionally a Maronite Christian who is chosen by parliament.

Gemayel was vying to replace his son Pierre, a Christian cabinet member and lawmaker who was shot dead last November. In Beirut, the vote was to replace Walid Eido, a Sunni Muslim lawmaker who was killed in a car bomb in June. Eido's seat was easily won by pro-government candidate Mohamad Amin Itani. Several Lebanese newspapers on Monday said that although Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement emerged the winner in the weekend poll, the party had nonetheless been weakened politically as it only clinched a narrow victory.

"A difference of 418 votes: a fake victory," blared a headline in the pro-government French daily L'Orient Le Jour. The paper said that had it not been for the support of the Armenian community in one district, where Gemayel alleged vote-rigging, Aoun's party would have been xxxxxled in the polls. But the opposition newspaper Al-Akhbar said that although Aoun won by a slim margin, the results put to rest claims by the ruling majority that he no longer represented the Christian community.

"Even though his victory was not overwhelming, Aoun came out the winner," it said. "He has answered to those who pretend that he is no longer the leader of the Christian community."

The movement of Aoun, a declared presidential candidate, garnered most of the Christian vote in 2005 legislative polls, but his popularity has waned since he forged a shock alliance last year with the Iran- and Syria-backed Shiite militant group Hezbollah. Parliament's challenge now is to elect a new president to succeed pro-Syrian incumbent Emile Lahoud by a November 25 deadline. While the majority controls enough seats to elect a president, it needs the opposition to take part for the two-thirds quorum required for parliament to convene.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070806...I1XpykRqeGOrgF

Hoss: Metn polls prove democracy in Lebanon is an 'illusion' Politicians, newspapers continue to debate implications of by-elections'

BEIRUT: Former Prime Minister Salim al-Hoss said Monday "the Metn by-election ended politically without a victor and a vanquished." "There was a loser, but there was no winner," Hoss said in a statement. "If the contest was a contest of sizes, then both competitors were effectively downsized," he added. Hoss said the polls had proven again that "democracy in Lebanon is an illusion where money and emotions rule." Higher Shiite Council Vice President Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan said "the achievement of the Metn and Beirut by-elections showed that the Lebanese people are wide-awake while dealing with controversial national issues."

Qabalan called for the formation of a national-unity government which he said, "should be a good reference to all conflicts and problems." The Armenian Tashnag Party voiced regret Monday that an "electoral battle over one parliamentary seat has turned into an attempt to settle accounts with a party that has never known extremism." "The irrational and heated statements delivered by some Lebanese leaders are nothing but an outburst of anger that showed the hatred they have been hiding for decades," said a Tashnag statement. "Once they lost their temper they expressed their rancor very clearly."

Meanwhile, former MP Gabriel Murr clarified on Monday that his comments in a televised interview a day earlier were targeting the administration of the Tashnag Party and not the Armenian community. "My friendship with the Armenian community and my respect for it are unlimited," the former MP said. Murr urged Armenians to change the Tashnag administration, and the Tashnag to change the way it deals with elections.

Aram I, Catholicos of the House of Cilicia, said Monday the results of the by-elections are secondary while what is worrying are divisions among the Christians in Lebanon in general and the Metn in particular. "No one should be happy with his victory ... because the Christian unity has been defeated by partition [of its members]," he said in a statement. The catholicos also said "we do not accept at all unfounded accusations targeting the Armenian sect." "The Armenian community is an example of patriotism," he added.

Meanwhile, Loyalty to the Resistance bloc MP Hussein Hajj Hassan lashed out at the March 14 Forces for criticizing in their electoral campaigns in the past few days the agreement between Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). "How did [their] 10 MPs win in Baabda-Aley [in 2005]?" Hajj Hassan asked during a Hizbullah rally in Baalbek. "Wasn't it for the votes of the members of the quadripartite alliance?" "If they blame the FPM for its agreement with Hizbullah then why don't they submit the resignation of their MPs in Baabda-Aley?" he added.

Separately, Hizbullah and the Amal Movement said Monday the establishment of a national-unity government is a "national right" and a "bridge" toward the solution of all problems. In a statement issued after a joint meeting in the South, both parties stressed the need to hold the presidential polls on time and in accordance with the Lebanese Constitution and laws. "Any link between the election of a new president and the formation of a national unity government is a cheap blackmail and waste of time," it said. March 14 Forces MP Butros Harb described Sunday's electoral battle in the Metn as a "victory for democracy."

"Lebanon is more important than any political post and the Lebanese people's interests are more important than winning a seat," Harb said after meeting with former President Amin Gemayel, calling on all parties to hold dialogue in a bid to solve the country's pending issues. Headlines in Lebanese newspapers on Monday reflected partisan interpretations of the result in the Metn. The pro-government Al-Mustaqbal newspaper, contending that Armenian voters had swung the vote Aoun's way, wrote Monday: "Two-thirds of Maronites vote for Gemayel, their seat goes to Aoun by 418 votes."

The pro-opposition As-Safir said "the Metn democratically defeats Amin Gemayel and with him the 'majority.'" Other newspapers said although Aoun's FPM emerged the winner in the weekend poll, the party had nonetheless been weakened politically as it only clinched a narrow victory. "A difference of 418 votes: a fake victory," blared a headline in the pro-government French daily L'Orient Le Jour. But pro-opposition Al-Akhbar said although Aoun won by a slim margin, the results put to rest claims by the ruling majority that he no longer represented the Christian community.

Source: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article....icle_id=84373#

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Gemayel tries to make peace with Armenians



Hizbullah showed support for the Armenian community on Wednesday as former President Amin Gemayel attempted to control the damage of his weekend comments that angered many Armenians. Gemayel Wednesday visited Armenian Catholicos Bishop Aram I Keshishian at his summer residence in Bikfaya.

The Catholicos called for a return of "conviviality and openness" in the Metn following the by-election. Banners of Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun have been seen side-by-side with Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah around Bourj Hammoud following Aoun's electoral victory. Speaking to reporters after his meeting, Gemayel stressed his firm political, economic, social and cultural bonds with the Armenian community, which he said is dear to his heart. The former president pointed to a long and shared history of joint struggle between Lebanese Armenians and his Phalange Party.

"Let us not forget that the memorial to Armenian martyrs in Bikfaya is right next to the statue of [Phalange Party founder, the late] Sheikh Pierre," Gemayel said, rejecting accusations that anything he said was improper or offensive to the Armenian community. "Some people confused what I said with what others said, this is not my problem."

Gemayel had on Sunday accused his opponents of vote rigging during the polls and singled out the predominantly Armenian suburb of Bourj Hammoud. Gemayel said Wednesday that he was clear in pointing to certain irregularities and errors that occurred at polling stations in Bourj Hammoud, adding that a formal complaint had been filed at the local police stations regarding these irregularities. Tashnag Party MP Hagop Pakradounian, clarified on Wednesday that a criminal law suit to be filed by Armenian deputies is not directed against Gemayel but only against March 14 politician Gabriel Murr for comments that he made. Pakradounian on Wednesday received a Hizbullah delegation at Tashnag Party headquarters in Bourj Hammoud headed by politburo member Ghaleb Abou Zeinab.

Pakradounian told reporters after the meeting that Gemayel's visit to the Catholicos was a good move, and welcomed all initiatives aimed at clearing the air. Abou Zeinab said after the meeting that he hoped what was said Sunday by some members of the majority was just "a slip of the tongue in a moment of anger," adding that no one has the right to question the national identity of any Lebanese. Abou Zeinab expressed apprehension at certain political figures' comments, which he said showed that the Lebanese have not learned from past tragedies, which should prompt them to fortify national unity and reject political racism. "The Armenians deserve the right to make their own political choices, because they are not an isolated group as some would like to portray them to be. Every political party has the right to choose a political path, this is democracy," Abou Zeinab said.

The Loyalty to the Resistance bloc on Wednesday expressed regret over the decline in the standard of political debate, as well as the racism and misrepresentation of the facts committed by the ruling majority whenever anyone disagrees with them. The comments came in a statement issued following a meeting of the bloc on Wednesday chaired by MP Mohammad Raad. The bloc called on the ruling majority to "deal realistically" with the wide popular support enjoyed by the FPM. Baalbek-Hermel MP Nader Sukkar, speaking to the Lebanese News Agency Wednesday, decried what he called a new political rhetoric that has begun to classify Christians, and warned against such practice. He said the split in the Christian vote and their distribution is political, not religious.

[...]

Source: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article....ticle_id=84442

Lebanon polls: Armenians back pro-Syrian candidate to victory



Bikfaya - Camille Khoury, the candidate backed by opposition leader Gen. Michel Aoun beat by a narrow margin former President Amin Gemayel in the crucial Metn by-election, but the anti-Syrian runner reaped a vast majority of the Maronite vote.

Gemayel, a prominent leader of the pro-government ruling majority, had been vying to replace his son Pierre Gemayel who was killed last November in one of a series of attacks blamed by the majority on Syria. Damascus has rejected the accusations. Khoury won 39,534 votes, against 39,116 votes for Gemayel, whose representative has lodged a "complaint on the results," Interior Minister Hassan Sabaa said in a press conference before dawn Monday. He gave no other details.

Both sides declared they had won a few hours after the polls closed Sunday. The daily An Nahar on Monday said the Armenian community in Lebanon played a key role in the Metn by-election victory. It said that while Khoury obtained 8,400 Armenian votes, Gemayel got only 1,600. The Armenian vote shocked the Lebanese community, since the Armenians traditionally vote for the ruling majority. Many of the Armenians immigrated to Lebanon from Syria. The fact that the Armenians voted for a candidate that is strongly allied with the pro-Syrian Hezbollah militants was the big surprise of the by-election.

Several Lebanese newspapers on Monday said that although Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement emerged the winner in the weekend poll, the party had nonetheless been weakened politically as it only clinched a narrow victory, thanks only to the Armenian vote. The pro-government French daily L'Orient Le Jour said that had it not been for the support of the Armenian community in one district, where Gemayel alleged vote-rigging, Aoun's party would have been xxxxxled in the polls.

The other surprising factor in Khoury's victory is the vote of the the naturalized Syrian- Lebanese. They crossed the border from Syria to vote for Hezbollah's Nasrallah, but when told by reporters Nasrallah is not running , they said they will then vote for Aoun. It was Michel Murr that naturalized the Syrian -Lebanese and allocated them to his Metn constituency and they came to pay him back. Sabaa earlier told reporters that the ruling majority candidate, Mohammed al-Amin Itani, had won as expected a landslide victory in another by-election which was also held on Sunday in Beirut. The by-elections were held to replace two anti-Syrian lawmakers killed in attacks blamed by the anti-Syrian March 14 majority on former powerbroker Damascus, which supports the Hezbollah -led opposition.

The two murdered MPs were Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel, a Christian who was gunned down in a Beirut suburb on November 21, 2006, and Sunni Muslim Walid Eido, who was killed in a car bombing in Beirut on June 13. After the end of the by-elections, the two camps immediately called for self-restraint, as hundreds of supporters from both sides gathered in public squares amid a heavy deployment of army and security forces backed by armored vehicles. One person was slightly injured by youths throwing stones in Beirut's northern suburb of Jdeideh where supporters of the two camps had gathered in the same public square, an AFP photographer witnessed. In a televised speech Aoun had announced Khoury's victory over Gemayel, and appealed for calm. But Gemayel had refused to admit defeat until official results were announced and demanded a rerun of the vote in one mainly Armenian region where he claimed voter fraud.

"We want elections to be repeated in the Burj Hammoud district," Gemayel told his supporters gathered in his hometown of Bikfaya. He said there were reports from that area of people not living there or deceased casting votes as well as irregularities with voting cards. The Metn by-election has deeply split Lebanon's Christians ahead of polls to elect a new head of state. The outcome of the poll is expected to set the tone for presidential elections due to be held in September. Traditionally, the president is chosen from the Maronite Christian community in Lebanon. "The legend of Michel Aoun as the sole Christian leader has crumbled," Walid Jumblatt, a prominent leader of the ruling majority, told Lebanese television.

"Amin Gemayel has won the political battle. Michel Aoun has fallen politically despite all his alliances," he said. Following the by-elections, parliament's challenge will still be to elect a new president to succeed pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud by a November 25 deadline. While the majority controls enough seats to elect a president, it needs the opposition to take part for the two-thirds quorum required for parliament to convene. The by-elections came amid heightened political and security tensions in the deeply divided country as a deadly showdown between the army and Islamist extremists in the northern Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr al-bared continues to rage after 11 weeks.

Source: http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/20..._polls_a_1.php

[skhara]

Re: War in The Middle East

Hezbollah defiant a year after war



What is Hezbollah up to one year on from its war with Israel?

It is a question many are asking both inside and outside Lebanon.

Even more so after its leader Hassan Nasrallah promised Israel was in for a "big surprise" if it attacked again - one which would change the course of any war and the whole Middle East.

Newspapers have been asking if Hezbollah now has new anti-aircraft weaponry to shoot down Israel's warplanes - or even if it has acquired some kind of chemical weapons capability from its two main sponsors - Syria and Iran.

Or is Mr Nasrallah's "big surprise" just bluster?

Given his past record for doing what he says, and following Hezbollah's success in resisting the might of Israel's US-backed forces in last year's fighting - forging its reputation as perhaps the most effective guerrilla army in the world - few would argue that.

The Israelis are certainly taking notice. "Nasrallah has never lied," said Israeli cabinet minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer. "He is xxxxy, he is arrogant, but at least from our experience with him, to my regret, what he has said, he has done."

In its heartlands in southern Lebanon, there is mounting evidence Hezbollah is preparing for another conflict - despite the presence of a beefed up UN peacekeeping force and the Lebanese army.

A senior Hezbollah official told the BBC the group expects another war with Israel in the next year or so.

But if Hezbollah is re-equipping and updating its arsenal, on the other side of the border, there is no doubt Israel is doing the same and re-training its forces - to be paid for with the billions of dollars of new military aid the US has recently promised. Both justify their actions by the other.

But since Israel ended its occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah has had a harder job arguing that it needs to maintain an independent guerrilla army.

It now points to the continued Israeli control of a small slice of disputed Lebanese territory known as the Shebaa farms - although the UN view is that it is part of Syria

But even if Israel did pull out of this area, few believe Hezbollah would disarm.

The movement is also under pressure on the home front.

Although it won praise among many Lebanese outside its core Shia constituency during last year's war, that view was not universal.

Hezbollah took some of the blame for provoking Israel's destructive bombing with its 12 July raid in which two Israeli soldiers were snatched - both of whom are still in captivity.

Those divisions in Lebanon have festered and grown since Hezbollah's decision last December to move against the government.

The old criticism that it is operating as a "state within a state" is being heard more loudly now.

Nine months on, Beirut's city centre is still paralysed by the continuing sit-in by its supporters in the main square. But it has not worked as planned.

"Hezbollah's bold challenge to the Lebanese government in which it once served has elicited a firm counter-reaction of political resistance commensurate with Hezbollah's military resistance to Israeli aggression," says commentator Rami Khouri.

The result, though, has been stalemate, accentuating Lebanon's political crisis - a crisis on display in Beirut's city centre every day.

On one side, filling the main square, are the tents put up by the Hezbollah-led demonstrators - with only a handful of people actually there most of the time.

On the other, government officials look down from the prime minister's palatial Ottoman-era building, powerless to intervene and besieged behind a mini-Green Zone of barbed wire and concrete, guarded by Lebanese troops, because of the added threat of attacks on anti-Syrian politicians.

While government officials applaud Hezbollah's past actions against Israel - both last year, and in pushing it out of southern Lebanon in 2000 - they say continuing its armed struggle is putting the country's future at risk.

"We don't want to have Israeli tanks running in again every few years", says one official.

Better to negotiate the issue of the Shebaa farms diplomatically through the United Nations, he says.

But the bigger question officials say is who is deciding Lebanon's security policy - the government, or Hezbollah and its Iranian and Syrian backers.

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Israel’s Armed Forces Undermanned, Under-equipped for War



Debka, August 21, 2007

Since the beginning of the week, Israel’s top military commanders have been poring over the situation of the Israeli Defense Forces in a workshop called by Ehud Barak who took over as defense minister two months ago. Some of their most alarming findings were presented by Barak at his first news conference in Tel Aviv Monday, Aug. 21 in advance of the ministry’s presentation of its budget requirements. Not all of the findings were news after disastrous deficiencies were brought to light in the ill-managed 2006 Lebanon War against Hizballah. But the negligence was now frankly traced to 1994 and 13 years of budget slashes by one government after another, including the one headed by the defense minister himself. They have left Israel’s armed forces deprived of the three security capabilities which Barak deems essential to Israel’s survival in a hostile environment: deterrence, early warning and victory.

To restore these capabilities, Barak outlined a program, the highlights of which are to reconstitute two disbanded reservist divisions, improve tank armor to withstand armor-piercing missiles and effective, active interception measures to protect the population against enemy rocket fire. DEBKAfile’s analysts note that, for the present, the IDF offers early warning - but not deterrence; the burning drive to prevail over the enemy was seen wanting in the Lebanon War and missing in dealing with the plague of missile and mortar attacks from Gaza, the daily fare of the neighboring Israeli population.

Senior officers told our sources: “The IDF is not only short of funds to meet its objectives, but also lacks sufficient manpower. It would take at least 10 years to rebuild and retrain the armed forces. The question is: what do we do in the meantime?” According to DEBKAfile’s sources in Jerusalem, prime minister Ehud Olmert refuses to approve funding for two additional armored reservist divisions, for accelerating the development of the Iron Dome system against short-range missiles and rockets, for fitting Israeli tanks with an extra layer of armor against anti-tank missiles, and for manufacturing the new Nimrod armored personnel carriers that would make the infantry much more maneuverable in the terrain where combat is foreseen.

The new defense minister is also calling for a long IDF operational arm which can strike deep inside hostile territory in such places as Iran, Syria, Lebanon and, if necessary, beyond. DEBKAfile’s military analysts report that the continuing budget deficiencies which hobble Israel’s military at large, also deny it the air power, missiles, submarines and specialist training for such long-range capabilities. The under-training of special operations units was starkly conspicuous in the Lebanon war, in particular the Baalbek raid. Military experts agree that if Barak wants to achieve a swift victory against Syria in the event of war, IDF forces must be able to move very fast and take the battle across the lines deep into hostile territory so as to seize the initiative from Syrian commando forces. They may find they are also up against Iranian Revolutionary Guards flown in to back up the Syrians. The manpower for such missions is in short supply at present.

DEBKAfile’s military sources point to four factors which need to be taken into account in the immediate future:

1. The rapid arming of the Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah armed forces financed by war budgets estimated as threefold or four times that allocated the IDF.

2. The danger of a simultaneous war flare-up on three of Israel’s borders. The IDF is better prepared for a multi-front conflict than it was a year ago, but the population remains defenseless against possible rocket attacks.

3. Israel’s policy-makers have not kept up with the rapid development of weapons technologies in the world, which is drawing on experience in the Iraq War and other conflicts. Hizballah, too, has made great strides forward. The fact is that interceptor systems for short-range missiles, such as the Iron Dome which Israel has tardily decided to develop, have been proved ineffective for protecting a civilian population. The American and Japanese armies have dropped it and gone back to tactical mobile high-energy laser weapons for countering rockets, artillery shells and mortars. Israel’s military industries began to pioneer this type of weapon a decade ago, but were forced to abandon their work by, yes, loss of government funding.

4. The long neglect of Israel’s military capabilities must be attributed largely to unrealistic fixations at the top of Israeli governments on peace prospects with the Palestinians and Syria and their failure to factor in Iran’s creeping domination over the military and diplomatic strategies of its allies and protégés. Even now, Israel’s leaders are blinding themselves to the fact that Tehran’s undivided focus on annihilating the xxxish state governs the policies of three of its neighbors, Syria, Hizballah and the Palestinians.

Barak’s stress on deterrence, early warning and victory is timely and right but unworkable so long as the heads of Israeli government and society refuse to rearrange their priorities. Soldiers will not be inclined to fight to win in a climate of concessions to active hostile forces, budget cuts and indifference to their needs. As one high-ranking military source put it, “The IDF is the people’s army. Unfortunately it now mirrors a people whose leaders’ top priority is a strong economy and who allow a select affluent elite to exempt their sons and daughters from military service, while the bulk of the fighting men are put up by the majority low-income classes.” To make the doctrine held by Barak work, the IDF must be able to call on highly proficient soldiers of all ranks, who can devote their attention wholly to operating complex systems and are not distracted by worry about their impoverished families at home. For high-tech weapons, a sufficiency of high-quality manpower is required.

Source: http://www.debka.com/

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Jerusalem worried by Iranian owned anti-ship missile


(Yakhont Anti-Ship Missile on Ground Next to SU-33)

THE JERUSALEM POST Aug. 28, 2007

The recent delivery of an advanced Russian-made anti-ship missile to Iran has defense officials concerned it will be transferred to Syria and Hizbullah and used against the Israel Navy in a future conflict. Called the SSN-X-26 Yakhont, the supersonic cruise missile can be launched from the coast and hit sea-borne targets up to 300 kilometers away. The missile carries a 200-kilogram warhead and flies a meter-and-a-half above sea level, making it extremely difficult to intercept. Its closest Western counterpart is the US-made Tomahawk and Harpoon.

The missile homes in on its target using an advanced radar guidance system that is said to make it resistant to electronic jamming. The Yakhont is an operational and tactical missile and can be used against both a medium-sized destroyer and an aircraft carrier. It would pose a serious threat to the Israel Navy, according to defense officials. "This is certainly a threat to the Navy," one defense official said. "There is a real fear that if this missile is in Iran it will also be in Syria and Lebanon."

During the Second Lebanon War, the IDF was surprised when the INS Hanit was struck by a Chinese-made ground-to-sea missile, which was not known to have been in Hizbullah hands. At the time, the IDF suspected Iran had assisted Hizbullah in the attack, which killed four sailors. While officials could not confirm that the missile had reached Syria or Hizbullah, the growing assumption is that any weapons system or missile that can be taken apart and fit into a shipping container can easily be transferred.

Source: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...icle%2FPrinter

Officials worried Iran will give their Russian anti-ship missile to terrorists

By Israel Insider staff August 28, 2007

Defense officials have expressed concern about the recent delivery of an advanced Russian-made anti-ship missile to Iran, saying they will likely be transferred to Syria and Hezbollah, the Jerusalem Post reported. If they fall into the hands of Syria and Hezbollah, they will be used against the Israeli navy in a future conflict.

"This is certainly a threat to the Navy," one defense official said. "There is a real fear that if this missile is in Iran it will also be in Syria and Lebanon."

The defense establishment's fears are in part due to the IDF's surprise during the Second Lebanon War last summer at the content of Hezbollah's arsenal. The INS Hanit was struck by a Chinese-made ground-to-sea missile, which was not known to have been in Hizbullah hands. At the time, the IDF suspected Iran had assisted Hezbollah in the attack, in which four sailors died. Although officials could not confirm that the missile had reached Syria or Hizbullah, the general assumption now is that any weapons system or missile that can be taken apart and fit into a shipping container can easily be smuggled to Hezbollah or Syria. Meanwhile, Minister of Strategic Affairs Avigdor Lieberman said Monday "the Iranian leadership with Ahmadinejad at its helm is temporary."

Lieberman called the Iranian administration "a band of crooks jeopardizing the security of Iran and the entire world," he said. "Instead of investing in the economy, [they] are investing in terror and Hizbullah, and I hope the Iranian people will remember this the next time they line up to vote." Regarding Iran's nuclear program, Liberman advocated economic sanctions over military action, saying that sanctions have been successful in frustrating such programs in Libya and North Korea.

Source: http://web.israelinsider.com/Article...rity/11948.htm

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Israel Is Officially Silent on Syrian Report It Entered Airspace



New York Times, Sept. 6 — Israeli officials were tight-lipped on Thursday after Syria said that Israeli planes had violated its airspace early that morning and that Syrian air defenses had confronted the planes and repulsed them.

A Syrian military spokesman said that the Israeli planes had also dropped some munitions in unpopulated areas in the northern part of the country, according to the official Syrian news agency, SANA. The spokesman said there were no casualties or damage. Israeli Army officials said only that they “are not accustomed to comment on reports of this nature.” A government spokesman said he had “nothing to add.” In a speech here Thursday evening, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made no mention of the accusations from Syria. When asked about them by an Israeli journalist, he said, “I don’t know what you are talking about.”

The first official reports of Thursday’s episode emerged, by Syrian accounts, more than 12 hours after it took place. Syrian officials were quoted in various media as saying that the Israeli aircraft had infiltrated Syrian airspace around 1 a.m. They added that the Israeli planes were flying low, and broke the sound barrier. Syria’s minister of information, Mohsen Bilal, told the satellite television network Al Jazeera, “Syria retains the right to determine the quality, type and nature of its response.”

Syrian officials could not be reached directly for comment. While the Israeli military would not comment, it seemed plausible that the Syrians had detected an Israeli overflight to test Syrian radar and reactions, and that the Syrian response caused the Israeli pilots to drop their munitions to fly higher and faster. By late in the day, though, analysts and media on both sides seemed to be trying to scale down tensions over the reports. Israel’s Channel 2 television reported that unnamed Syrian officials had said they had no intention of being drawn into a war on Israel’s timetable or terms. Samir Taqqi, a political analyst at the Orient Center for Studies, a research institute in Damascus, said the Syrian response would probably be measured. “I don’t think you’ll see it lash out,” he said. “The response will be through a political mechanism, not military.”

Eyal Zisser, a Syria expert at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, said that if the Syrians had an interest in an escalation, he would have expected much shriller statements out of Damascus. The Syrian announcements came after months of increasing tension between Israel and Syria, with both in a heightened state of alert along their border.

Some Syrian analysts in Damascus interpreted the reported incident as an Israeli provocation, possibly aimed at increasing the stakes between the two countries. Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, has suggested that if Israel is not willing to resume negotiations for the return of the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, the alternative would be to try to regain the territory by force. Thabet Salem, a Syrian political commentator, said of the day’s reports, “Either this is in preparation for pushing Syria to peace talks by raising the stakes, or it’s an attempt to abort any sort of calls for peace talks.”

Formal peace talks between Israel and Syria broke down in 2000. Mr. Olmert has said he would be willing to resume talks if Syria showed its intentions were genuinely peaceful, for example by stopping its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and for Palestinian militant factions based in Damascus. Separately on Thursday, 10 Palestinian militants were killed in clashes with Israel in Gaza. Four were killed in clashes with an Israeli force in southern Gaza, Palestinian medical officials and the Israeli Army said. In addition, six members of Islamic Jihad were killed, the army said, when they approached the Gaza perimeter fence in two vehicles. Islamic Jihad said in a statement that it had intended to attack an Israeli military post.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/07/wo...07mideast.html

Iran condemns violation of Syrian airspace by Israel

TEHRAN, Sept. 7 (MNA) – Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki has called the violation of Syrian airspace by Israeli aircraft a “futile attempt” intended to raise the “spirit of the defeated Israeli army” in the face of a brave resistance by Lebanese nation last summer. Syria said its air defenses opened fire on Israeli warplanes which had violated Syrian airspace at dawn on Thursday, ratcheting up the tension between the neighboring foes. A Syrian cabinet minister warned that the nation's leadership was considering its response to the Israeli "aggression" while in Israel the military declined any comment. In a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart Walid al-Moallem on Friday, Mottaki insisted on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s “solidarity with the brotherly and friendly nation and country of Syria.”

Moallem appreciated Iran’s stances and said that his country is prepared to confront any invasion by the Zionist regime. In a statement on Friday, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini also condemned Israel’s violation of Syrian airspace. He said through this “provoking and insolent” action the Zionist regime seeks to transfer its internal crisis outside Palestine, spreading insecurity in the region and divert the public opinion from the repercussions of the heavy defeat” that it suffered at the hands of Lebanese nation in its 33-day war against Hezbollah.

Source: http://www.mehrnews.ir/en/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=547867

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Israel consulted US before Syria strike, report says



Israel's decision to launch an air strike against a suspected nuclear site in Syria allegedly set up with the help of North Korea came after Israel shared intelligence with the US, it was reported today. The attack on September 6 has been shrouded in mystery, although the Israeli opposition leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, yesterday confirmed in a TV interview that such an attack did take place. His admission came despite a news blackout over the incident. The Washington Post today shed more light on the raid, which has sparked widespread speculation that it was a dry run for a possible attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. The paper said the Bush administration was initially circumspect about Israel's claim that North Korea was helping Syria, and decided against an immediate response because of negotiations aimed at persuading Pyongyang to ditch its nuclear programme.

However, the US is believed to have provided Israel with some corroboration of the original intelligence before Israel went ahead with the raid, the Post said. The operation reportedly was carried out under such strict secrecy that the pilots flying air cover for the attack aircraft did not know the details of the mission and the airmen who conducted the attack were briefed only after they were off the ground, the paper said. The Israeli attack came three days after a North Korean ship docked at the Syrian port of Tartus carrying a cargo officially listed as cement.

The ship's contents remain in dispute, with some Israeli sources suggesting it was nuclear equipment. Others say the ship was carrying missile parts, while some have said the vessel's arrival and the attack were merely coincidental. There is also scepticism about the intelligence that prompted the attack, as Syria has actively pursued chemical weapons in the past but not nuclear arms. The incident remains the subject of much conjecture because, unlike after its destruction of an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, Israel has made no official comment about the attack and the Israeli media has been under strict censorship. For its part, Syria has made only muted protests, and Arab leaders have kept quiet.

Meanwhile, North Korea and Syria today held high-level talks in Pyongyang. The talks were between Choe Tae Bok, the secretary of the central committee of the North's ruling Workers' party, and Saaeed Eleia Dawood, the director of the organisational department of Syria's Ba'ath Arab Socialist party, the official Korean central news agency reported. The two sides discussed ways of improving friendship and cooperation, and other issues of bilateral interest, KCNA said. The meeting is bound to increase speculation about the exact nature of relations between the two countries. Both have denied reports of nuclear cooperation.

Andrew Semmel, the acting US deputy assistant secretary of state for nuclear nonproliferation policy, said last week that North Koreans were in Syria, and that Syria may have had contacts with "secret suppliers" to obtain nuclear equipment. As the latest details emerged about the Israeli raid, China said talks between North Korea and regional powers about ending Pyongyang's atomic weapons programme would resume in Beijing next week. The announcement came a week after the lead US negotiator, Christopher Hill, said he expected to attend the talks despite the reports that Syria might have received North Korean nuclear help.

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Sto...174292,00.html

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Syria's Strategic Weapons Programs



September 20, 2007

The September 6 Israeli airstrike in northeastern Syria has produced intense speculation. According to the New York Times, Israeli intelligence believes the target was part of a clandestine Syrian nuclear weapons program aided by North Korea. This raises broader questions about the status of Syria's strategic weapons programs, which would likely play a crucial role in any future confrontation with Israel.

Syria's Strategic Safety Net

Given that Syria lacks both a superpower patron and territorial depth (Israeli forces are thirty miles from Damascus), the regime depends on strategic weapons -- mainly conventionally and chemically armed rockets and missiles -- to deter foreign aggression and ensure its survival. The Israeli raid has heightened concerns that Syria might be seeking to supplement its substantial chemical weapons stockpile with a small nuclear arsenal.

Nuclear activities. Syria's declared civilian nuclear infrastructure is rudimentary, and until recently, there was no evidence of a nuclear weapons program (rumors that the regime was a client of the Abdul Qadir Khan network were never substantiated). Syria has nuclear research labs, a miniature 30-kilowatt reactor (unsuitable for the production of fissile material), a small particle accelerator, and a plant that separates uranium from the country's abundant phosphate deposits. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Damascus showed an interest in acquiring larger research reactors and nuclear power and desalination plants from Russia and elsewhere, but nothing came to fruition. Speculation about the airstrike has centered on reports that it targeted a site where North Korea purportedly delivered nuclear materials or technology several days prior. Foreign assistance could help jumpstart a Syrian nuclear weapons program, but it would likely take years to yield results -- unless North Korea provided Syria with fissile material (presumably plutonium) from which a bomb could be made.

Syria's late president Hafiz al-Asad implied that the country did not develop nuclear weapons because their use against a neighboring state would harm Syria's own population and prompt a harsh superpower response. It is not clear whether current president Bashar al-Asad shares this perspective or that of Arab leaders such as Hizballah's Hassan Nasrallah, who emphasize the growing importance of psychological warfare and strategic bombardment as means of waging war against Israel. Chemical and biological weapons. Syria probably has the largest and most advanced chemical warfare program in the Arab world. It is believed to have both binary-type and cluster-bomblet chemical warheads for all its major missile systems, as well as thousands of bombs filled with the nerve agents sarin and possibly VX, all of which are deliverable against battlefield and strategic targets in neighboring countries.

Syria's chemical weapons program has traditionally served as a strategic deterrent, with chemical warheads and bombs posing a threat to Israeli population centers. These weapons could also be used against air bases, armories, and command-and-control facilities in order to disrupt mobilization efforts and military operations. Reports that Syria has produced tube and rocket artillery filled with mustard-type blister agents indicate that it is also capable of delivering chemical strikes against battlefield targets. Artillery rounds filled with such agents would be effective in slowing the advance of Israeli ground forces, buying time for international intervention to end the war.

Syria is also believed to have a biological warfare research and development program, although few details are publicly available. Rumors that Iraqi chemical and biological warfare agents were transferred to Syria on the eve of the 2003 invasion of Iraq have never been substantiated and seem improbable. Unlike 1991, Iraq did not send its air force abroad prior to the war, choosing instead to bury its best aircraft in the desert. If there were surviving chemical or biological stocks on the eve of the war, it is likely that they were treated similarly. Rockets and missiles. Syria has one of the largest missile forces in the developing world. Short-range Soviet Scud-Bs (300 kilometers) and longer-range North Korean Scud-Cs (500 kilometers) and Scud-Ds (700 kilometers) form the backbone of this force. These missiles provide Syria with a strategic deterrent against Israel and other neighbors through their ability to strike population centers.

Syria currently possesses about 200 Scud-Bs, 60-120 Scud-Cs, and a smaller number of Scud-Ds, which are kept in hardened underground shelters located in hillsides and tunnels in various parts of the country. Although the Scud-Bs must be launched from forward positions near Damascus, where they are susceptible to detection and destruction prior to launch, Scud-Cs and Scud-Ds can reach targets in Israel from launch sites anywhere in the country. This fact would significantly complicate any Israeli efforts to locate and destroy these missiles (though Israeli forces performed well against Hizballah's long-range rockets during the summer 2006 war in Lebanon, destroying many before they could be launched).

Syria also possesses the Soviet SS-21 missile with a 70-kilometer range, as well as large numbers of domestically produced 220-millimeter and 302-millimeter artillery rockets with ranges of 70 and 100 kilometers, respectively. These systems are probably intended for use against military targets and population centers; they could also be used to suppress or overwhelm Israeli missile defenses so that the larger missiles can get through. These rockets, which are reportedly armed with both conventional and chemical warheads, can reach targets throughout northern Israel. The success of Hizballah's short-range rockets during the Lebanon war has apparently encouraged Syria to place even greater emphasis on its own rocket forces.

Employment Scenarios

Syria has used its rocket and missile forces for strategic signaling as well as deterrence. During the Syrian missile crisis in April 1981 and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in June 1982, Syria deployed several Scud-Bs to sites near Damascus -- where they could be observed by Israel -- as a warning not to attack. And in recent months, Syria reportedly deployed large numbers of long-range rockets opposite the Golan during several major Israeli military exercises there, apparently to deter what it saw as preparations for an attack. Should deterrence fail, Syria's rocket and missile forces would likely play a major role in any confrontation with Israel, as a means of deterring further escalation or disrupting Israeli mobilization and military operations. Syria might also be tempted to attack Israeli population centers in order to undermine Israeli morale -- raising the possibility of further escalation and, in turn, the use of chemical weapons should the regime or Damascus be threatened. For all these reasons, although Israel's September 6 airstrike may have averted an unwanted nuclear development, it may also signify the onset of increasing tension and volatility between Israel and Syria.

Source: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/t...5.php?CID=2664

[Armenian]

Re: War in The Middle East

Sea of flags for funeral of slain Lebanon MP



Huge crowds turned out on Friday for the funeral of anti-Syrian MP Antoine Ghanem whose assassination has stirred fears of more instability in the tense runup to a presidential vote in parliament.

Pallbearers threaded their way through a sea of Lebanese flags as they carried the coffins of Ghanem and two slain bodyguards to the Furn el-Sheback district of Beirut where the MP had his constituency. "Ya habibi (my love), Ya habibi," cried out Ghanem's widow Lola as his coffin, draped with a Lebanese flag, left the Lebanese Canadian hospital where he was taken after Wednesday's bomb blast that killed a total of five people and wounded around 70. Thousands of people, some weeping, gathered in Furn el-Sheback, waving both the Lebanese flag and and the banner of the slain MP's Christian Phalange party flags as brass bands played to pay their last respects.

The cortege slowly made its way to the nearby Sacre Coeur church, where several leading members of Lebanon's anti-Syrian parliamentary majority were to attend the funeral service, in what was as much a political as a family event. Flags flew at half mast and schools and businesses were shut for the after the government declared a day of official mourning for the funeral. Apart from Ghanem and his guards, the other two victims of the blast were a grandmother drinking coffee with the family on her balcony and a young executive driving home from work. One was buried on Thursday. The other was to be laid to rest separately on Friday.

It was the second assassination to hit the Phalange party in the past 12 months. Industry minister Pierre Gemayel was killed last November. Leaders from all sides of the political spectrum have vowed to go ahead with the controversial presidential vote scheduled for next Tuesday despite the assassination which drew condemnation from around the world. The election comes amid political deadlock between the Western-backed cabinet and the pro-Damascus opposition. US President George W. Bush condemned what he called "a tragic pattern" of attacks against champions of "an independent and democratic Lebanon" while UN chief Ban Ki-moon condemned a "brutal assassination."

Pro-government MPs in Beirut have pointed a finger of blame at Syria, which denied any involvement and said the bombing was a "criminal act" aimed at undermining efforts at a rapprochement with Lebanon. Hezbollah, the leading party in the opposition, said the assassination was "a blow to the country's security and stability as well as any attempt at reconciliation" and called for feuding political parties to show unity. Prime Minister Fuad Siniora urged the United Nations to investigate Ghanem's killing as part of its probe into similar murders of anti-Syrian figures including former premier Rafiq Hariri who was assassinated in 2005.

Fearing for his life, Ghanem had fled into exile following the assassination in June of another anti-Syrian MP, and returned to Lebanon only on Sunday. He was the eighth anti-Syrian politician to be assassinated since the February 2005 murder of five-time prime minister and billionaire tycoon Hariri. The authorities have prepared emergency accommodation for fearful MPs in a special high-security wing of a luxury Beirut hotel. Ghanem's death reduced the government's support in parliament to 68 out of the remaining 127 MPs, with numbers set to play a key role in the presidential vote.

Senior Phalangist official Joseph Abu Khalil said the attack was clearly aimed at cutting the number of pro-government MPs to derail the vote. A candidate, who by convention comes from the Maronite Christian community, needs a two-thirds majority to be elected president from a first round of voting, while a simple majority is enough in any later round. An election can be held right up until the final deadline of November 24, but if the president's seat is left vacant, his powers are automatically transferred to the government.

Source: http://www.africasia.com/services/ne...2.fms9cd8j.php

Lebanon on the brink

As Lebanon prepares for a crucial parliamentary vote on a replacement for outgoing pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, there is little indication of a compromise solution that would avoid a burgeoning political crisis that could turn violent. And the deadlock in Beirut is as much about foreign ambitions as it is about domestic confessional rifts. From ISA.

As Lebanon prepares for a presidential vote next week, the murder of a prominent anti-Syrian legislator highlights the profundity of the country's confessional rifts and the seemingly insurmountable challenges facing those promoting dialogue. The parliamentary vote on a new president - who will replace outgoing Syrian ally Emile Lahoud - may be delayed unless a consensus candidate is found capable of bridging the yawning divide separating the Western-backed rump Fuad Siniora government and the pro-Damascus opposition - a deadlock that is just as much about foreign ambitions as it is about domestic confessional rifts.

On 19 September, right-wing Christian Phalange Party lawmaker Antoine Ghanem, 64, was killed in a bomb blast in the capital, Beirut. Ghanem had returned to the country from hiding only three days earlier as the anti-Syrian March 14 Forces calls in its parliamentary allies ahead of the crucial presidential vote. The assassination reduces the anti-Syrian bloc's parliamentary majority to 68 of 127 MPs days out from the vote. Three legislators are among the eight prominent Lebanese critics killed in a wave of similar attacks the March 14 Forces blame on Syria. Desperate to prevent the further whittling down of its parliamentary majority, the Siniora government is organizing emergency housing for anti-Syrian MPs in Beirut's Phoenicia InterContinental.

In comments carried by the Daily Star, outspoken Druse leader Walid Jumblatt decried the murder, calling on the international community to protect Lebanon "against the Syrian-Iranian alliance, which has brought nothing but harm to Lebanon." A UN investigation has found evidence of the involvement of Syrian and Lebanese intelligence officials in the murder of former Lebanese premier Rafik al-Hariri and similarities between his February 2005 assassination and that of other anti-Syrian figures. Lahoud's term, which was controversially extended in a Syrian-promoted legislative session prior to the Baathist state's 2005 withdrawal of troops from Lebanon, ends on 23 November. The position is traditionally reserved for a Maronite Christian, but the government and opposition have not been able to agree on a candidate and the possibility of the emergence of parallel governments is a real one.

The parliament is scheduled to reconvene on 25 September for the first time since last November, when Hizbollah legislators led a walkout of pro-Syrian ministers from the Siniora cabinet. If a deal between the governing coalition and opposition is reached, parliament will vote for a new president. And if a president is not elected on time, his powers are automatically transferred to the government. With some March 14 leaders pledging to force through their candidate for the office in the absence of a consensus candidate, the fragile Lebanese political system stands in danger of total breakdown. There is little consensus on a possible presidential candidate. The opposition appears to be supporting Michel Aoun, leader of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement; while the majority parties have indicated support for several candidates, including Democratic Renewal Movement leader Nassib Lahoud and Rally of Independent Maronite leader Butros Harb.

Should the opposition choose - in the midst of this deadlock - to boycott the presidential vote, the result could be dangerously destabilizing. Threats from President Lahoud to nominate his own successor - in the form of army chief General Michel Suleiman - to run an interim government have caused additional concerns and would meet with staunch opposition from Western-backed anti-Syrian forces.

Confessional chaos

Unique in politics, Lebanon is a parliamentary, democratic republic that operates within a "confessional" system - cemented in the 1989 Taif Accords - intended to keep sectarian rifts subdued by ensuring that all major Lebanese communities play an ongoing role in decision-making. In accordance with this system, the presidency is reserved for a Maronite Christians; the post of prime minister for a Sunni Muslim; the post of deputy prime minister for an Orthodox Christian; and the post of speaker of parliament for a Shia Muslim. This latest political crisis erupted when Hizbollah, Amal and allied pro-Syrian ministers left the government after being refused a one-third blocking vote in the cabinet that would have allowed them to block government approval of an international tribunal to try those held responsible for the al-Hariri murder.

The tribunal constitutes a profound threat to Syrian interests in Lebanon and to the Bashar al-Assad government as it threatens to expose the involvement of at least five high-level Baathist officials with close ties to the Syrian president in the assassination report. The officials were identified in a leaked draft report by the investigating UN probe. Subsequent national dialogue talks promoted by the parliamentary speaker, Amal leader Nabih Berri, collapsed without significant achievements, raising doubts that the months-long absence of negotiations between the competing blocs can be resolved through last-minute politicking.

Foreign influence

"Undoubtedly, the current Lebanese state of affairs and the surrounding regional and international circumstances may not allow for agreement among the Lebanese, especially as Syria and Iran continue to undermine the political and security situation in this country," analyst Jamil Theyabi writes in Yalibnan.com. Syria will maintain significant influence over Lebanese political life regardless of the presidential vote result, which could well hinge on last-minute covert negotiations between Damascus and Riyadh, which strongly backs March 14 leader and Sunni Future Movement head Saad al-Hariri.

The Saudis, who see Lebanon as a front in the regional battle for influence against Iran have been desperate to shore up the Siniora government, pumping hundreds of millions into reconstruction activities controlled by the rump administration while actively seeking to bring competing factions together. These efforts appear to have been stymied by Damascus, with the Saudi ambassador in Beirut forced to return home temporarily after receiving repeated death threats. He has now returned.

In Washington, Lebanon is a key concern for the White House, which sees the current crisis as an opportunity to diminish the prominent political role of Iranian ally Hizbollah while further isolating Syria - which it accuses of backing militants in Lebanon and Iraq. The seriousness with which the Bush administration is taking the threat posed by the crisis to the gains made by anti-Syrian movements since the 2005 election was underlined this week by the US enjoinder to Israel not to conduct reconnaissance flights over Syrian territory until after the presidential vote.

While Syria is uncompromising in its support for its Lebanese allies and appears determined to block the election of an anti-Syrian president, it ultimately has no interest in maintaining its damaging confrontation with the US in Lebanon. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, Damascus is seeking a resumption of relations with the US. A Syrian decision to compromise on the presidency may encourage US State Department advocates of rapprochement with the Baathist state.

As the International Crisis Group puts it, "As the July [2006 Israel-Hizbollah] war reminded everyone, [Lebanon] is also a surrogate for regional and international conflicts: Syria against Israel; the US administration against the Syrian regime; pro-Western Sunni Arab regimes led by Saudi Arabia against ascendant Iran and Shiite militancy; and, hovering above it all, Washington against Tehran." As the parliamentary vote approaches there are few signs of an impending compromise that could reestablish the path to consociational politics. A sense of profound crisis prevails.

Source: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=18150