Only 1% Of Russians Eye Armenia As Russia's Friend During Next 10-15 Years

[Siamanto]

1% OF RUSSIANS EYE ARMENIA AS RUSSIA'S FRIEND DURING NEXT 10-15 YEARS

PanARMENIAN.Net
03.09.2007 15:00 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM)
presented information concerning the countries with which Russia will
have the friendliest relations and with which it will be on the most
inimical terms.

Armenia is absent from the list of Russia's potential enemies,
although only 1% of Russians eye Armenia as Russia's friend during
next 10-15 years.

21% of respondents assume that Russia will be on best terms with
China within the next 10 to 15 years; and only 3% consider that
the relations with this country will be inimical or strained. 12%
of respondents name Belorussia and Germany among the friendliest
states; 2% of respondents provide a negative forecast in regard to
Belorussia, less than 1% think negatively of Germany. Besides Germany,
Russians also distinguish France (+6%, -1%) among the countries that
are members of the European Union. 6% of respondents mention India
as one of the most friendly countries of the next decade, another 6%
mention Kazakhstan in this respect (there are practically no negative
forecasts).

The U.S. mostly evokes negative expectations: although 10% rely on
friendship of this country with Russia, nevertheless, those, who
assume that the relations between these two countries will rather be
hostile or strained, are far more numerous (24%). Georgia occupies
the second place in the negative list: 19% of respondents mention it
as a potential enemy to Russia (whereas only 1% of respondents expect
positive development of relations to take place). Forecasts as far as
the Baltic countries are concerned are also rather negative (+1%, -7%).

The views of Russians on Ukraine were nearly equally divided (+6%,
-7%). Positive forecasts in respect to Russia's relations with Japan
are a little more numerous (+7%, -3%), Great Britain was more likely
to be treated negatively (+3%, -7%).

As a rule, more attention in Russia's different federal districts is
given to their immediate neighbors. Thus, in the Southern district,
hopes that relations between Russia and Ukraine as its immediate
neighbor will become friendlier are more frequently expressed
than it generally is in Russia on average (11% in the district,
6% average in the country). 29% of respondents in the Far-Eastern
district provide positive forecasts in connection with China, cf.:
21% on average in the country. 21% of respondents in the North Western
region identify Germany as a friendly country, whereas 12% on average
in the country do.

On the whole, expectations that Russia's relations with other countries
in 10-15 years will be friendly are more typical than forecasts that
these relations will be hostile.

Among international organizations the most important world role in
the next 5-10 years will be played by the European Union (as 32%
of respondents assume), the "Great Eight" and NATO (28-29%). OPEC,
WTO, United Nations Organization and UNESCO are considered to be the
most influential organizations a little less often (13-17%). The role
of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of the Pacific Forum;
the Commonwealth of the independent states (CIS), the Union of Russia
and Belorussia, and the also International Olympic Committee seem to
respondents to be still less important (5-8%).

The All-Russia opinion poll was conducted by VCIOM on August 25-26,
2007. 1600 respondents were interviewed in 153 population areas of
46 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.

http://groong.usc.edu/news/msg201023.html

[karoaper]

Re: Only 1% Of Russians Eye Armenia As Russia's Friend During Next 10-15 Years

The reason is not due to Armenia herself, but rather the overall contempt with which Russians view the Caucasus. Sadly, much of Caucasus really is a dark alley, thanks to the generally undercivilized highlander-like societies that prevail there. In other words, the fact that Armenians have through centuries enriched the Russian culture and society gets lost simply because our neighbors have generally been seen as uncultured and barbaric.

Now, because there is some friction between Russians and first-generation Caucasians (this includes the huge number of first-generation Armenian immigrants), which is very natural of any "large" influx of immigrants into any society,
Russians may not see Armenia as a friendly state for sociological reasons, rather than actually using logic. In other words Russians may be sick and tired of the many new Armenian immigrants, and therefore not taken with the idea of entertaining a friend in the Caucasus. Also, notice that they want to see powerful and/or resource-rich countries as their friends, another sign that this poll is more of an insight into Russians' complexes and insecurities, rather than their actual understanding and sound analysis of their neighbors.

[Siamanto]

Re: Only 1% Of Russians Eye Armenia As Russia's Friend During Next 10-15 Years

The reason is not due to Armenia herself, but rather the overall contempt with which Russians view the Caucasus. Sadly, much of Caucasus really is a dark alley, thanks to the generally undercivilized highlander-like societies that prevail there. In other words, the fact that Armenians have through centuries enriched the Russian culture and society gets lost simply because our neighbors have generally been seen as uncultured and barbaric.

Now, because there is some friction between Russians and first-generation Caucasians (this includes the huge number of first-generation Armenian immigrants), which is very natural of any "large" influx of immigrants into any society,
Russians may not see Armenia as a friendly state for sociological reasons, rather than actually using logic. In other words Russians may be sick and tired of the many new Armenian immigrants, and therefore not taken with the idea of entertaining a friend in the Caucasus. Also, notice that they want to see powerful and/or resource-rich countries as their friends, another sign that this poll is more of an insight into Russians' complexes and insecurities, rather than their actual understanding and sound analysis of their neighbors.

I'll come back to the above later; for now, I just wanted to share some more data:

1. The population of Russia is 141,377,752 (July 2007 est.)
2. Armenians in Russia or Russian Armenians are ethnic Armenians who live in Russia. The 2002 Russian census recorded 1,130,491 Armenians in the country, but most probably did not take into account the Armenian guest workers, most of whom do not hold Russian citizenship. Various figures estimate that the Armenian population actually exceeds 2,000,000.
It probably grew since 2002???
3. Ethnic Groups in Russia
4. A more complete data of the results of the opinion poll follows

It is noteworthy that the percentage of Russians who think that Armenia will be a friend is, more or less, equal to the percentage of Armenians of Russia!!!!!




For a better formatted table, click here

What countries do you think will our country have most friendly relations with in the nearest 10-15 years? (A free-answer question, up to 5 different answers possible)


What countries will Russia have the most inimical or strained relations with in the nearest 10-15 years? (A free-answer question, up to 5 different answers possible)

China 21 3

Belorussia 12 2

Germany 12 0

USA 10 24

Japan 7 3

India 6 -

Kazakhstan 6 -

Ukraine 6 7

France 6 1

Countries of the European Union 4 1

Great Britain 3 7

Former Soviet Republics 2 -

Italy 2 -

Korea 2 -

Commonwealth of Independent States 2 -

Countries of East and South-East Asia 2 -

Armenia 1 -

the Near East 1 1

Bulgaria 1 -

Grece 1 -

Georgia 1 19

Kirghizia 1 -

Poland 1 2

The Baltic countries 1 7

Turkey 1 -

Uzbekistan 1 -

Finland 1 -

Sweden 1 -

Afghanistan - 1

Iraq - 1

Iran - 1

With all countries 1 -

Other option 1 1

Hard to say 49 51




We will give you names of a series of international organizations. Please, identify which of them will play the most important world role in the nearest 10-15 years? (Up to 3 options possible)



European Union 32

"The Great Eight" 29

NATO 28

OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) 17

UNESCO 14

WTO (World Trade Organization) 14

United Nations Organization 13

SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) 8

CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) 8

International Olympic Committee 7

The Pacific Forum 5

The Union of Russia and Belorussia 5

Hard to say 26

[Armenian]

Re: Only 1% Of Russians Eye Armenia As Russia's Friend During Next 10-15 Years

Excellent point, enker Karoaper.

The Republic of Armenia and Armenians, sociologically speaking, are insignificant for nations as large and as powerful as Russia. The average Russian will tend to think more in terms of China, America, Europe, etc. And specially for a nation like Russia, anything from the Caucasus will conjure up nasty images.

Armenia is a major entity only in the minds of Armenians. Well... Let me rephrase that: Armenia is a major entity only in the minds of nationalist Armenians, as most Armenians are - otaramol yev shurtvadz. For other major civilized nation on earth, we Armenians, at best, can only be a mere geopolitical factor (good or bad) for them. Thus, our ancient historiography, our beautiful language and alphabet, our agenda regarding the Armenian Genocide, our struggle for Artsakh, our Christian culture, our national heroes, our Ararat, etc - mean next to nothing to other nations.

Besides, none of these polls have any bearing on geopolitics for Russia's national borders start in the south Caucasus. By protecting Armenia and/or destabilizing Georgia, for example, they are serving their national interests. Nothing personal, it's only politics. And we Armenians need to understand this keenly and approach it accordingly. In other words, when you know that you serve a neighboring nation's strategic interests, especially a neighbor who also happens to be a superpower - you must attempt to make the most of it. And currently that is exactly what official Yerevan is attempting to do with the Russian Federation.

What's more, I have learned to essentially disregard these types of polls in general, especially the ones associated with politics. More often than not, such polls merely tell you the intent of the individual/organization performing the poll. In reality, one can manipulate a given survey to extract whatever result one may seek. There are so many crucial factors in conducting a proper survey that before I take one seriously I would first want to look at the exact survey's wording (questioner), the people performing it, the selection of surveyed individuals, the process of the selection, the location, the timing, the supervision, etc...

The reason is not due to Armenia herself, but rather the overall contempt with which Russians view the Caucasus. Sadly, much of Caucasus really is a dark alley, thanks to the generally undercivilized highlander-like societies that prevail there. In other words, the fact that Armenians have through centuries enriched the Russian culture and society gets lost simply because our neighbors have generally been seen as uncultured and barbaric. Now, because there is some friction between Russians and first-generation Caucasians (this includes the huge number of first-generation Armenian immigrants), which is very natural of any "large" influx of immigrants into any society, Russians may not see Armenia as a friendly state for sociological reasons, rather than actually using logic. In other words Russians may be sick and tired of the many new Armenian immigrants, and therefore not taken with the idea of entertaining a friend in the Caucasus. Also, notice that they want to see powerful and/or resource-rich countries as their friends, another sign that this poll is more of an insight into Russians' complexes and insecurities, rather than their actual understanding and sound analysis of their neighbors.

[Siamanto]

Re: Only 1% Of Russians Eye Armenia As Russia's Friend During Next 10-15 Years

The reason is not due to Armenia herself, but rather the overall contempt with which Russians view the Caucasus. Sadly, much of Caucasus really is a dark alley, thanks to the generally undercivilized highlander-like societies that prevail there. In other words, the fact that Armenians have through centuries enriched the Russian culture and society gets lost simply because our neighbors have generally been seen as uncultured and barbaric.

Now, because there is some friction between Russians and first-generation Caucasians (this includes the huge number of first-generation Armenian immigrants), which is very natural of any "large" influx of immigrants into any society,
Russians may not see Armenia as a friendly state for sociological reasons, rather than actually using logic. In other words Russians may be sick and tired of the many new Armenian immigrants, and therefore not taken with the idea of entertaining a friend in the Caucasus. Also, notice that they want to see powerful and/or resource-rich countries as their friends, another sign that this poll is more of an insight into Russians' complexes and insecurities, rather than their actual understanding and sound analysis of their neighbors.

Though I agree with the above
1. I'm not sure if - and how much - the results of the poll were influenced by the perception that Russians, currently, have of people from the South Caucasus
2. I don't think that the polls reflect a negative perception of Armenia

Before I explain myself, let's consider how the poll was conducted and what it could mean:
The header of the table at the VCIOM site says: "A free-answer question, up to 5 different answers possible"
In other words, the polled had to chose 5 different countries - though of "little" relevance, either from a limited or "complete" list ???? - and they have probably chosen the 5 countries that they consider as "the most important for Russian interests and/or value personally." [Actually, the press release brings to the attention of the reader how geographical vicinity had an impact on the choices.]

In other words, I consider the results of the poll as something like
1. The percentage of Russians that highly - i.e. in their top 5 value a friendly relation with a country
2. The percentage of Russians that deeply - i.e. in their top 5 mistrusts or dislikes a country

Based on the above,
1. I find the results of the poll "fair and reasonable." In fact, even when a Russian considers Armenia as friendly; Armenia would not be of enough importance - or value - to be in their top 5. Most likely, it is for Armenians of Russia and that's, probably, why the number of Russians that highly value the friendship is equal to the number of Armenians of Russia?????

2. I don't know how the numbers were rounded, but considering that "no" Russians " deeply mistrust or dislike" Armenia - compared to, for instance, Georgia or Ukraine - weakens karoaper's explanation - to what degree?
To repeat, I think that the polls do not necessarily reflect a negative perception of Armenia.


Other comments:
1. It is noteworthy their perception of Iran and TEMPORARILY SO CALLED Turkey:
Turkey 1 -
Iran - 1
2. There is also "Commonwealth of Independent States" in the list. Does it include Armenia or - in case the list of possible choices did not include all "countries" - does it mean "CIS not already included???"
3. Azerbaijan is not in the list. Does it mean that the list of possible choices was limited or does it mean that, for both columns, the results were below a threshold????