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Underachieving College Coaches
By Jim Johnson
Inspin.com
Contributing Writer
When you’re trying to beat the odds, it’s just as important to know which teams are likely to disappoint as ones that will be surprise winners. Over the years, several coaches have made a name for themselves that they probably would like to change. These are the men who win the recruiting rankings in February but by November have come up short of expectations; the leaders that turn a solid 8-9 win team into one scraping for a bowl bid.
Chuck Amato, North Carolina State: The short version of justifying the selection is this: The Wolfpack had three NFL first-round picks on their squad last season, yet managed to lose five games. It appears Amato’s success at NC State was directly tied to former quarterback Philip Rivers. Amato and Rivers arrived in Raleigh at the same time and compiled a 34-17 record in four years -- good but not great. In the two years since Rivers’ departure, the Wolfpack are 12-11. The results on the field do not reflect the highly rated recruits that Amato has been attracting. After a No. 34 class in the Rivals.com rankings in 2002, State was No. 7 in 2003, No. 28 in 2004 and No. 27 in 2005. Recruits may have figured out they need to go elsewhere to win since Amato’s 2006 signing class was ranked only No. 54.
Ron Zook, Illinois: Zook took over a Florida program in 2002 that had won 10 or more games nine of the previous eleven seasons (nine the other two), added classes ranked No. 20, No. 2 and No. 7 (Rivals.com), and won eight, eight and seven games in his three seasons at Gainesville. During his tenure, the Gators lost all three bowl games they played in and dropped five of six to in-state rivals Miami and Florida State. Watching Urban Meyer come in last season and post a 9-3 record with Zook’s recruits despite trying to run an offensive system the players were not well-suited to only reinforced the thought that Zook underachieved. Zook’s first Illinois squad posted a dismal 2-9 record last season, but he still managed to land a No. 30 class. Look for Illinois to eventually become competitive in the Big Ten but still manage to lose games to opponents with lesser talent.
Al Groh, Virginia: Groh has signed three national top 20 classes the past five years. Despite this, the Cavaliers' best record during that stretch is 8-4, and the highest they’ve moved on the bowl game pecking order is the Continental Tire Bowl (that’s not very high). Groh achieved his early recruiting success by presenting the Virginia football program as a primer for the NFL. He has the resume for it; he spent 13 years in the league as an assistant and a head coach and had a long working relationship with Bill Parcells. Groh has delivered on draft day: 12 Cavaliers have been drafted over the past two years, two of them in the first round (TE Heath Miller in 2005, OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson in 2006). Under Groh, Virginia often plays down to the level of its competition, especially on the road. The Cavs lost at Maryland and North Carolina last season, two teams that weren’t nearly as talented as Virginia.
Phil Fulmer, Tennessee: Unlike my other choices, Fulmer earned this designation primarily due to an atrocious 2005 performance. How can a team with all the talent the Volunteers had last season, even in the brutally tough SEC, wind up with a record of 5-6? Fulmer clearly butchered his handling of the quarterback position, and losses at home to South Carolina and Vanderbilt are completely unacceptable in Knoxville. At least Fulmer realized he needed help in righting the ship, which often looked like it did not have any particular direction on offense last season. He rehired offensive guru David Cutcliffe to clean up the mess and try to get quarterback Erik Ainge’s head back on straight. Last season wasn’t the first time a Fulmer team has underachieved; his 2002 team had too much talent to lose five games, four of them by at least 17 points. Tennessee should bounce back this year, but approach the Vols warily when wagering.
John L. Smith, Michigan State: Smith earned a reputation at Louisville as a coach who could bring excitement and explosive offense to a program, and he has lived up to that at Michigan State. That has not resulted in wins, however. The Spartans struggled to 5-7 and 5-6 records the past two seasons and have shown a disturbing trend of losing games they have no business losing. In 2004, Michigan State fell to Rutgers and Hawaii. Last season, despite having the fifth-ranked offense in the nation, the Spartans fell 41-18 at Minnesota and 49-14 at home to Northwestern. Smith has brought in three solid recruiting classes (his 2004 class was ranked No. 16, the highest so far), but Michigan State’s recent history of bad losses reeks of underachieving.
Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M: A few years ago, “Coach Fran” was one of the hottest coaches in the nation. He had led TCU to its best season in more than 60 years and cashed in when he accepted the Alabama job. Two years later, he jumped again to Texas A&M, where things have hit a bit of a snag. Franchione’s three-year record is only 16-19 with one bowl appearance, a 38-7 drubbing by Tennessee in the 2005 Cotton Bowl. Last season A&M, a school with a proud tradition of strong, hard-nosed defense, finished last in the nation in pass defense. This trend is even worse when you consider that Rivals.com ranked Franchione’s first three recruiting classes at A&M No. 10, No. 13 and No. 8 in the nation. With talent like that, the Aggies should be a serious threat for a BCS bowl. Instead, they are struggling to be eligible for any bowl. Franchione has brought in 35-year veteran coach Gary Darnell as defensive coordinator to try and fix the problems on that side of the ball. He’d better hurry because the clock is ticking loudly on Franchione’s stay in College Station.
The bottom line with the schools I mention here is to evaluate how many games a team with their talent level should win in a season, then subtract two. Also, count on at least one unexplainable loss along the way.
By Jim Johnson
Inspin.com
Contributing Writer
When you’re trying to beat the odds, it’s just as important to know which teams are likely to disappoint as ones that will be surprise winners. Over the years, several coaches have made a name for themselves that they probably would like to change. These are the men who win the recruiting rankings in February but by November have come up short of expectations; the leaders that turn a solid 8-9 win team into one scraping for a bowl bid.
Chuck Amato, North Carolina State: The short version of justifying the selection is this: The Wolfpack had three NFL first-round picks on their squad last season, yet managed to lose five games. It appears Amato’s success at NC State was directly tied to former quarterback Philip Rivers. Amato and Rivers arrived in Raleigh at the same time and compiled a 34-17 record in four years -- good but not great. In the two years since Rivers’ departure, the Wolfpack are 12-11. The results on the field do not reflect the highly rated recruits that Amato has been attracting. After a No. 34 class in the Rivals.com rankings in 2002, State was No. 7 in 2003, No. 28 in 2004 and No. 27 in 2005. Recruits may have figured out they need to go elsewhere to win since Amato’s 2006 signing class was ranked only No. 54.
Ron Zook, Illinois: Zook took over a Florida program in 2002 that had won 10 or more games nine of the previous eleven seasons (nine the other two), added classes ranked No. 20, No. 2 and No. 7 (Rivals.com), and won eight, eight and seven games in his three seasons at Gainesville. During his tenure, the Gators lost all three bowl games they played in and dropped five of six to in-state rivals Miami and Florida State. Watching Urban Meyer come in last season and post a 9-3 record with Zook’s recruits despite trying to run an offensive system the players were not well-suited to only reinforced the thought that Zook underachieved. Zook’s first Illinois squad posted a dismal 2-9 record last season, but he still managed to land a No. 30 class. Look for Illinois to eventually become competitive in the Big Ten but still manage to lose games to opponents with lesser talent.
Al Groh, Virginia: Groh has signed three national top 20 classes the past five years. Despite this, the Cavaliers' best record during that stretch is 8-4, and the highest they’ve moved on the bowl game pecking order is the Continental Tire Bowl (that’s not very high). Groh achieved his early recruiting success by presenting the Virginia football program as a primer for the NFL. He has the resume for it; he spent 13 years in the league as an assistant and a head coach and had a long working relationship with Bill Parcells. Groh has delivered on draft day: 12 Cavaliers have been drafted over the past two years, two of them in the first round (TE Heath Miller in 2005, OT D’Brickashaw Ferguson in 2006). Under Groh, Virginia often plays down to the level of its competition, especially on the road. The Cavs lost at Maryland and North Carolina last season, two teams that weren’t nearly as talented as Virginia.
Phil Fulmer, Tennessee: Unlike my other choices, Fulmer earned this designation primarily due to an atrocious 2005 performance. How can a team with all the talent the Volunteers had last season, even in the brutally tough SEC, wind up with a record of 5-6? Fulmer clearly butchered his handling of the quarterback position, and losses at home to South Carolina and Vanderbilt are completely unacceptable in Knoxville. At least Fulmer realized he needed help in righting the ship, which often looked like it did not have any particular direction on offense last season. He rehired offensive guru David Cutcliffe to clean up the mess and try to get quarterback Erik Ainge’s head back on straight. Last season wasn’t the first time a Fulmer team has underachieved; his 2002 team had too much talent to lose five games, four of them by at least 17 points. Tennessee should bounce back this year, but approach the Vols warily when wagering.
John L. Smith, Michigan State: Smith earned a reputation at Louisville as a coach who could bring excitement and explosive offense to a program, and he has lived up to that at Michigan State. That has not resulted in wins, however. The Spartans struggled to 5-7 and 5-6 records the past two seasons and have shown a disturbing trend of losing games they have no business losing. In 2004, Michigan State fell to Rutgers and Hawaii. Last season, despite having the fifth-ranked offense in the nation, the Spartans fell 41-18 at Minnesota and 49-14 at home to Northwestern. Smith has brought in three solid recruiting classes (his 2004 class was ranked No. 16, the highest so far), but Michigan State’s recent history of bad losses reeks of underachieving.
Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M: A few years ago, “Coach Fran” was one of the hottest coaches in the nation. He had led TCU to its best season in more than 60 years and cashed in when he accepted the Alabama job. Two years later, he jumped again to Texas A&M, where things have hit a bit of a snag. Franchione’s three-year record is only 16-19 with one bowl appearance, a 38-7 drubbing by Tennessee in the 2005 Cotton Bowl. Last season A&M, a school with a proud tradition of strong, hard-nosed defense, finished last in the nation in pass defense. This trend is even worse when you consider that Rivals.com ranked Franchione’s first three recruiting classes at A&M No. 10, No. 13 and No. 8 in the nation. With talent like that, the Aggies should be a serious threat for a BCS bowl. Instead, they are struggling to be eligible for any bowl. Franchione has brought in 35-year veteran coach Gary Darnell as defensive coordinator to try and fix the problems on that side of the ball. He’d better hurry because the clock is ticking loudly on Franchione’s stay in College Station.
The bottom line with the schools I mention here is to evaluate how many games a team with their talent level should win in a season, then subtract two. Also, count on at least one unexplainable loss along the way.