What if?

[seruven]

Hi Gang,
Let's go back in the history of Turkey and make some changes. Assume that now we are in 1923, the founding agreement of Turkey, Lausanne Treaty has just been signed. The decision for deporting Armenians wasn't made in 1915, hence we have a significant Armenian population in Anatolia. Besides, let's assume that there hadn't been a decision for population exchange between Greece and Turkey in Lausanne.
What was the situation of Armenians between 1915 and 1923? What kind of country would be this new country? How well the relations between these people would go? And what would be the situation of the country in 21st century if remained one?
Please feel free to speculate and make groundless allegations.
Note for mods: You can relocate the thread if general talk is not the appropriate place.
S.

[jgk3]

Re: What if?

Well, if there were an absence of the pan-Turkic agenda which resulted in Armenian genocide and deportations, we'd probably control a great deal of Turkish finance capital today. As a result, though Armenians could not run in high office, many of your domestic and foreign policies would probably have to accommodate the multinational reality of Turkey.

The question at that point would lie in, how well would Turks be able to assimilate the Armenian population enough to someday adopt Islam and become fullfledged Turks?

With an absence of a pan-Turkic agenda, what would happen with Turkeys relations towards Russia? Would they be warmer, possibly true allies?

imo, Turkey was pretty much forced to take on a pan-Turkic stance in the beginning of the 20th century as a response to its loss of the Ottoman Empire to the Allies. It had to secure a home base for itself and its identity on the world map and resorted to ruthless means of doing so, as it understood its limitations in subduing its relatively powerful Christian minorities through mere cultural assimilation processes. The fact that it dealt with both the Bolsheviks and the West without compromising its sovereignty or identity to either side is a testimony of its success.

Had Turkey not genocided the Armenians, the republic's political dimension may simply have never been achieved. As a result, Turkey too would likely have been carved up by the Allies and the Bolsheviks, perhaps favouring the Christian minorities living there by allotting lands to them.

[seruven]

Re: What if?

@jgk3
Throughout 20's, Turkish Republic began to create its own "national economy" and "national bourgeoisie". Still, as in the other countries, political authority determines which economic groups to flourish and which groups to parish. This was more so during 60's and 70's while the political authority was overtly protecting some sectors/firms/groups.
In conclusion, Armenians would have been influencial in Turkish Economy if they had found political support. There is also the wealth tax which was charged from minorities during WWII.
I doubt your claim about controlling capital.

[jgk3]

Re: What if?

Armenians lost their financial standing and protection in the Near East through genocide, wars by unfriendly neighbours who decided to gang up together (Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, Bolshevik Russia) and lapses of anti-Armenian administration under the Soviets (Stalin especially)

The only reason Turkey was able to conduct it's "soft" coup de grace on Christian minorities in the Near east during the 60s and 70s was because of the unified, international abandonment of the Armenians in the opening of the 20th century, so that their wealth and social infrastructure could be pillaged by their neighbours.

The only reason why Turkey was able to form its social bourgeoisie in the 20s as you claim was because there was a vacuum of wealth available, one of the spoils of the genocide. You see, Turkey could no longer follow the old Ottoman structure of posting governors around its empire for administrative affairs, thus it lost its traditional apparatus for a Muslim Turk upper class. It had to free up the positions and industries from its Christian minorities. All they did was redistribute positions and wealth that had already existed.

[Pazooki]

Re: What if?

What would happen?

Well... we'd go through our lives and everything would be okay and we'd having alot of good connections and trades.

But... no friendship can last that long between 2 countries. Sooner or later Turkey will actually try to force Armenia into becoming Muslims. Armenia, likewise, will disagree and the Turks will try to do what they did to Armenians in the Genocide, but this time Armenians might be smarter and figure out that Turks are going to do something and if we get into a war we would fight fair and still(no offense) kick your ass and probably take a portion of Turkey's land but not in a way of murdering innocent children and women. Then probably 20 years later the Turks would be claiming that it was a Genocide and we'd have facts to say that it was truly a War and not a Genocide. The outcome would probably be the same. You guy's would probably try to start protests, but considering a ton of people hate Turks and Turkey you would fail.(Once again, no offense)

But that's just my opinion.

[seruven]

Re: What if?

@Sero,
I don't think Turks would try to Islamize Armenians. Mustafa Kemal and other influential Turkish figures didn't have a pro-Islam agenda. The thing is "would they still try to create a nation state from the ashes of the collapsed empire"? Maybe they would try to Turkify Armenians and Greeks. Or maybe they would give the necessary space for these cultures to preserve their unique features.
PS. Don't worry about offending me. I would advise you to put yourself in your opponents' shoes and write accordingly in a discussion. Hopefully there won't arise any problems.

[Palavra]

Re: What if?

Mustafa Kemal would interest to Islamize Armenians much more than ottomans.(If Ottomans were realy interested with islamizing armenians.) It is kemalist goverments who exchanged muslim greeks with christian Turks.

Sero anyway, You would not kick our ass with a war even There was not genocide. (I am sure That was what your ancestors made their mistake too.)

If There was not genocide, We would have an armenian problem and we will have not a kurdish problem..

[seruven]

Re: What if?

@Palavra
I'm 100% sure that we would have other problems if we hadn't had Kurdish problem.
However, isn't/wasn't a big proportion of Kurdish problem due to state's denialist policies against Kurds?
If Turks were not living only with Kurds, but also Armenians and Greeks, would they still conduct similar political and cultural policies that they conducted againts Kurds? I doubt.

Possibly, we would have some Armenians looking for an independent state. Would their ratio be significant? (Is the ratio significant within Kurds now?) I dunno.

[TomServo]

Re: What if?

If There was not genocide, We would have an armenian problem and we will have not a kurdish problem..

So are you indirectly admitting to it here?

[Palavra]

Re: What if?

Turks would support kurds against armenians and kurds would support turks against greeks.

Noneed to talk about population growth rates of Turks-Kurds vs Armenians-Greeks..

Infact, It would be interesting to have a great minority at Greece..