Birth rate in Armenia

[Artsakh]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia Facing Demographic Collapse

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 224December 15, 2015 05:33 PM Age: 3 days
By: Paul Goble



Between 1920 and 1991, Pogosyan says, Armenia’s population rose from 880,000 to approximately five million; but after 1991, it began to lose population and will continue to do so. In part, this reflects the decline in the birthrate by 50 percent over that period; but to a greater extent, it is the product of outmigration, something many Armenians thought might be temporary but which is proving to be permanent. “Hundreds of thousands have left, but only a handful have returned,” Pogosyan notes. And because it is the young who are leaving most often, the number of women in prime childbearing age groups is falling, which will push the population down even more, perhaps to only 1.5 million by mid-century. Moreover, that population will be far “grayer” than the current one.


Publications

People, people.... How long has it been that "people" have been "crying" that Armenia is emptying, its population has halfed to 1.5 million, etc... Since the very early years after independence. And now you guys are falling for an article authored by none other than the infamous PAUL GOBLE???

First of all, the basic facts are not even correct. Armenia's population NEVER reached 5 million. At most, the population of Armenia has reached around 3.8 million prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union

As one measure, the number of cars is increasing year after year in Armenia. I got news for you-- sheep ain't driving them.

The horrible traffic in Yerevan speaks for itself as to the supposed "emptiness" of the country.

Moreover, since the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis, where would Armenians "flee" to for "better opportunities"??? The US, Europe and other advanced countries have all been unable to afford their own citizens with opportunities or basic jobs. Highly educated individuals in the US and other advanced countries have unemployed for years now, many lost their homes. So in these past years in particular, Armenians would really have no where else in the world to flee to for better opportunities.

This article is aim at spreading panic among the uninformed.

[Armynia]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The collapse of the soviet union is the reason for our demographic troubles. Once industry collapsed and everything was looted, people were left with no way to make a living.

The Collapse of your beloved Soviet Union is the reason that Artsakh has been liberated from the soviet-azeri occupation!


I do not agree with Vrej's Anti-Russian Policy, but I do not agree with the slave mentality either.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The collapse of the soviet union is the reason for our demographic troubles. Once industry collapsed and everything was looted, people were left with no way to make a living. Our leaders are a direct reflection of us. We as a people have not had much self governing experience and it shows. The demographic situation is as bad if not worst then the worst fears listed in this thread. To understand it you must factor in opportunity cost also. At this point I have a hard time believing that a shrewd government like ours when it comes to foreign policy is so stupid when it comes to domestic policy. I suspect the government is decreasing the population intentionally and the reasons for it are mere speculation on our part since we do not know. I suspect it is a part of some global plan but whatever it is I do not like it.

[haydavid]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Bro this issue of "de-population" is being over-marketed believe me by both external forces and internal propaganda. Not that it is not an important issue, don't get me wrong! It's tragic! and must be dealt with asap.

But there is no country in the world that actually ceased to exist because there were no longer people living in it.

Let me explain it to you in numbers:

Lithuania: 2.9 million (65,000 Km2)
Latvia: 1.9 million (65,000 km2)
Estonia: 1.3 million (45,000 km2)
Slovenia: 2 million (20,000 km2)
Macedonia: 2 million (25,000 km2)

All are very valid countries. Now to explain it to you from an economic point of view. As long as the Armenian economy and GDP are growing you don't need to worry about anything. It means the productivity in the country is increasing. New businesses are opening up and there will always be need for new workforce. Armenia's current economic situation cannot support 3 million people, but that's changing.

When the USSR collapsed we were left with a crumbled economy with 3.8 million people to support. The migration started, in turn, the economy started developing. Gradually the migration levels started to drop (still net negative though). As the economy further develops, migration levels will further drop until they reach a point where the number of people in the country could be supported by the level of economic development. And then the opposite trend would start. Meaning, the developing economy will need workers. The 1st candidates will be Armenians working in Russia, followed by Armenians in Georgia and Iran. When it really improves, diasporan Armenians will be attracted to work there as well (at least some of them).

This is a natural trend for any developing economy. Where does our case exactly become unique and critical? If a war starts and the population is at its lowest. Which means less soldiers to defend the homeland.

This is what's critical in our case. The rest is simple economics which can be changed with the course of the development of our country's abilities. But the general talk, specially in the diapora that "Hayastane ge barbevigor" is mere bull****. The depopulation of Armenia is a security challenge not a demographic one.

Finally, if people in the diaspora are really concerned that Armenia is being depopulated. Let them be the 1st heroes and go and live there. When Jews first moved to Israel, they lived in swamps and had to put up with diseases and security concerns. But they did...and eventually succeeded. We in the diaspora on the other hand want to move to Armenia only if it becomes a "welfare state" like Canada or Australia.

P.S. If Armenia does become a welfare state, it will no longer need the diaspora. There would be many willing applicants wanting to live there. So how exactly do we, as Armenians living outside Armenia, differ from mere opportunistic immigrants? a Question I think each one of ask must ask himself/herself.

Noone of the countries you listed are doing great.
Armenia will not die out because of this , well not directly. But when you see that turkey doubles its population , azeris give birth like potatoes , ... it makes you think.
You are right ,this will be a huge problem in wartime. Imagine we had 30-/40000 more conscripts on the frontline. Wouldn't that be huge? I am allready amazed how so little number of young people can hold against 4 times more soldiers on the other side.

Imagine if the ratio was 1/2 instead of 1/4. We wouldn't even have to worry about Turkey , we wouldn't be so dependent of Russia.

I don't think diaspora Armenians will ever come back in numbers. Jews went back to Israel because they were scared to live in their country. Armenians have no real reason to immigrate back to Armenia, only nationalism.

[ArmeniaSacra]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenia Facing Demographic Collapse

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 224December 15, 2015 05:33 PM Age: 3 days
By: Paul Goble

(Source: RT)
“ ‘All progressive humanity’ is concerned by the periodic reports about the disappearance of this or that type of plant or animal, [but] we are much less concerned about the disappearance of nations and nationalities,” Armenian expert Gevork Pogosyan says. Yet, as the post-Soviet period demonstrates, that can happen even to larger nations that have lost population numbers as a result of declining birthrates and increasing outmigration and assimilation (see EDM, December 11). One such country now facing a demographic collapse is Armenia, whose population has dropped by nearly 1.5 million since 1991 and is projected to decline by that much again over the next several decades (Kavkazoved.info, December 6).

Such declines call into question the long-term survival of Armenians as a nation, the director of the Yerevan Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Law suggests. But more immediately, they have significant security implications given that those leaving Armenia are the most educated portion of the population rather than the working class. And furthermore, Armenia remains locked in a conflict with its neighbor, Azerbaijan, over Karabakh and the other Armenian-occupied territories of Azerbaijan. But like the other Muslim republics of the former Soviet space, Azerbaijan is experiencing rapid population growth and is predicted to continue to do so for some time to come.

Between 1920 and 1991, Pogosyan says, Armenia’s population rose from 880,000 to approximately five million; but after 1991, it began to lose population and will continue to do so. In part, this reflects the decline in the birthrate by 50 percent over that period; but to a greater extent, it is the product of outmigration, something many Armenians thought might be temporary but which is proving to be permanent. “Hundreds of thousands have left, but only a handful have returned,” Pogosyan notes. And because it is the young who are leaving most often, the number of women in prime childbearing age groups is falling, which will push the population down even more, perhaps to only 1.5 million by mid-century. Moreover, that population will be far “grayer” than the current one.

Some of this reflects the real absence of opportunities in Armenia, the Yerevan scholar argues. But part of it signifies a spiritual crisis in which Armenians increasingly feel that they and their children have no future in a country that is locked in what appears to be a permanent, if undeclared, war and whose government has done little to fight domestic corruption or crime. The authorities, meanwhile, have often reacted with indifference to this trend or even welcomed it: One former prime minister said that if Armenians were not leaving the country in massive numbers, there would be a revolt at home.

If the problem is to be addressed, Pogosyan says, the government must first admit that the problem exists, something it has not been willing to do; and it must then adopt policies intended to change the existing national psychology. At the same time, it must recognize that some of the things it is doing to save the Armenian economy may be destroying the country’s demographic future. Entering the Eurasian Economic Union, for example, will make it even easier for Armenians to leave their country and never return. It is already the case, he says, that there are almost as many ethnic Armenians in Russia as there are in Armenia.

Moreover, he continues, it is not just a question of gross numbers. If many international guest workers from Muslim republics are low-skilled people, between 55 and 60 percent of Armenians leaving to work elsewhere are highly trained professionals. That further depresses the future of Armenia. And this trend gives no sign of easing. According to research his institute has done, Pogosyan says, “up to 40 percent of young people are set on leaving the country, either to study, for to work, or to live there and marry. This is a very bad symptom.”

Yerevan cannot hope to stop outmigration, Pogosyan asserts, but what it must do if the nation is to have a future is to promote “circular migration,” in which Armenians go abroad for part of their lives and then return to Armenia. That is the pattern in Europe, and Yerevan must take steps to make it the pattern in Armenia as well. At the same time, it must do more to attract Armenians from the eight-million-strong Armenian diaspora. To date, however, Yerevan has not been doing that. For example, he says, it has taken in only 7,000 Armenians from Syria out of an Armenian community there of 150,000.

But the situation is even worse than those figures suggest, Pogosyan states, because many of the Syrian Armenians who have come to Armenia are using it as a way station until they can move to Europe or the United States. He says he has a neighbor from Syria, a doctor with his own clinic in Armenia. But now that neighbor is selling his clinic and apartment and planning to move to France. He and his family “lived in Armenia only a year, and you already cannot keep him” there. “That is the reality” of Armenian life now; as a result, the scholar says, “depopulation continues.”


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Bro this issue of "de-population" is being over-marketed believe me by both external forces and internal propaganda. Not that it is not an important issue, don't get me wrong! It's tragic! and must be dealt with asap.

But there is no country in the world that actually ceased to exist because there were no longer people living in it.

Let me explain it to you in numbers:

Lithuania: 2.9 million (65,000 Km2)
Latvia: 1.9 million (65,000 km2)
Estonia: 1.3 million (45,000 km2)
Slovenia: 2 million (20,000 km2)
Macedonia: 2 million (25,000 km2)

All are very valid countries. Now to explain it to you from an economic point of view. As long as the Armenian economy and GDP are growing you don't need to worry about anything. It means the productivity in the country is increasing. New businesses are opening up and there will always be need for new workforce. Armenia's current economic situation cannot support 3 million people, but that's changing.

When the USSR collapsed we were left with a crumbled economy with 3.8 million people to support. The migration started, in turn, the economy started developing. Gradually the migration levels started to drop (still net negative though). As the economy further develops, migration levels will further drop until they reach a point where the number of people in the country could be supported by the level of economic development. And then the opposite trend would start. Meaning, the developing economy will need workers. The 1st candidates will be Armenians working in Russia, followed by Armenians in Georgia and Iran. When it really improves, diasporan Armenians will be attracted to work there as well (at least some of them).

This is a natural trend for any developing economy. Where does our case exactly become unique and critical? If a war starts and the population is at its lowest. Which means less soldiers to defend the homeland.

This is what's critical in our case. The rest is simple economics which can be changed with the course of the development of our country's abilities. But the general talk, specially in the diapora that "Hayastane ge barbevigor" is mere bull****. The depopulation of Armenia is a security challenge not a demographic one.

Finally, if people in the diaspora are really concerned that Armenia is being depopulated. Let them be the 1st heroes and go and live there. When Jews first moved to Israel, they lived in swamps and had to put up with diseases and security concerns. But they did...and eventually succeeded. We in the diaspora on the other hand want to move to Armenia only if it becomes a "welfare state" like Canada or Australia.

P.S. If Armenia does become a welfare state, it will no longer need the diaspora. There would be many willing applicants wanting to live there. So how exactly do we, as Armenians living outside Armenia, differ from mere opportunistic immigrants? a Question I think each one of ask must ask himself/herself.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

In reality it's worse I believe.
Many Armenians who emigrated still officially are in Armenia , and are counted by the numbers.
There is a real , real big demographic problem. It's the biggest problem in Armenia right now.
People can't afford to have multiple children , immigration , ... all lead to this.

It's true not only Armenia has this problem ( Albania for example) but it doesn't make it less bad.

I believe the worse is behind, don't think many will/can immigrate and the population will grow

I agree.

To say we do not need to panic is being complacent.

We have to remember the authorities are not facing this problem, no action, either to reduce emigration or encourage couples to have more than three kids.

This also effects the economy.

Soon similar to European countries we will be encouraging immigration from every part of the world to stem this demographic catastrophe.

.

[haydavid]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

This is not a good news but no need of panic in my opinion,yet this is debatable.many nations have population that are in hundreds of thousands but they survive as state,I know the argument is that they don't have neighbors like ours,but some of these countries do have adversaries that are in dozens of millions.i don't know if this is a good example but Japan vs 1.5 bln Chinese,or Georgia vs Russia,many more,it's all alliance,weapons and politics that keep a state surviving in a short run,although population won't be a bad guarantee for a long run survival,I agree with the article on that.A good measure to check the population would be poll numbers for elections.constitutional reforms election had 2.5 mln capable registered voters,this means 2.5 mln 18+ population,another few hundred thousand teenagers and new borns that were excluded for age restriction can help add up the figure to 3 mln.I'm not sure if these mean permanent residence of Armenia whom shown activity in the country or regular passport holders that can even reside overseas ,someone on demographic studies please shed a light on this tyvm

In reality it's worse I believe.
Many Armenians who emigrated still officially are in Armenia , and are counted by the numbers.
There is a real , real big demographic problem. It's the biggest problem in Armenia right now.
People can't afford to have multiple children , immigration , ... all lead to this.

It's true not only Armenia has this problem ( Albania for example) but it doesn't make it less bad.

I believe the worse is behind, don't think many will/can immigrate and the population will grow

[argin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Armenia Facing Demographic Collapse

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 224December 15, 2015 05:33 PM Age: 3 days
By: Paul Goble

(Source: RT)
“ ‘All progressive humanity’ is concerned by the periodic reports about the disappearance of this or that type of plant or animal, [but] we are much less concerned about the disappearance of nations and nationalities,” Armenian expert Gevork Pogosyan says. Yet, as the post-Soviet period demonstrates, that can happen even to larger nations that have lost population numbers as a result of declining birthrates and increasing outmigration and assimilation (see EDM, December 11). One such country now facing a demographic collapse is Armenia, whose population has dropped by nearly 1.5 million since 1991 and is projected to decline by that much again over the next several decades (Kavkazoved.info, December 6).

Such declines call into question the long-term survival of Armenians as a nation, the director of the Yerevan Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Law suggests. But more immediately, they have significant security implications given that those leaving Armenia are the most educated portion of the population rather than the working class. And furthermore, Armenia remains locked in a conflict with its neighbor, Azerbaijan, over Karabakh and the other Armenian-occupied territories of Azerbaijan. But like the other Muslim republics of the former Soviet space, Azerbaijan is experiencing rapid population growth and is predicted to continue to do so for some time to come.

Between 1920 and 1991, Pogosyan says, Armenia’s population rose from 880,000 to approximately five million; but after 1991, it began to lose population and will continue to do so. In part, this reflects the decline in the birthrate by 50 percent over that period; but to a greater extent, it is the product of outmigration, something many Armenians thought might be temporary but which is proving to be permanent. “Hundreds of thousands have left, but only a handful have returned,” Pogosyan notes. And because it is the young who are leaving most often, the number of women in prime childbearing age groups is falling, which will push the population down even more, perhaps to only 1.5 million by mid-century. Moreover, that population will be far “grayer” than the current one.

Some of this reflects the real absence of opportunities in Armenia, the Yerevan scholar argues. But part of it signifies a spiritual crisis in which Armenians increasingly feel that they and their children have no future in a country that is locked in what appears to be a permanent, if undeclared, war and whose government has done little to fight domestic corruption or crime. The authorities, meanwhile, have often reacted with indifference to this trend or even welcomed it: One former prime minister said that if Armenians were not leaving the country in massive numbers, there would be a revolt at home.

If the problem is to be addressed, Pogosyan says, the government must first admit that the problem exists, something it has not been willing to do; and it must then adopt policies intended to change the existing national psychology. At the same time, it must recognize that some of the things it is doing to save the Armenian economy may be destroying the country’s demographic future. Entering the Eurasian Economic Union, for example, will make it even easier for Armenians to leave their country and never return. It is already the case, he says, that there are almost as many ethnic Armenians in Russia as there are in Armenia.

Moreover, he continues, it is not just a question of gross numbers. If many international guest workers from Muslim republics are low-skilled people, between 55 and 60 percent of Armenians leaving to work elsewhere are highly trained professionals. That further depresses the future of Armenia. And this trend gives no sign of easing. According to research his institute has done, Pogosyan says, “up to 40 percent of young people are set on leaving the country, either to study, for to work, or to live there and marry. This is a very bad symptom.”

Yerevan cannot hope to stop outmigration, Pogosyan asserts, but what it must do if the nation is to have a future is to promote “circular migration,” in which Armenians go abroad for part of their lives and then return to Armenia. That is the pattern in Europe, and Yerevan must take steps to make it the pattern in Armenia as well. At the same time, it must do more to attract Armenians from the eight-million-strong Armenian diaspora. To date, however, Yerevan has not been doing that. For example, he says, it has taken in only 7,000 Armenians from Syria out of an Armenian community there of 150,000.

But the situation is even worse than those figures suggest, Pogosyan states, because many of the Syrian Armenians who have come to Armenia are using it as a way station until they can move to Europe or the United States. He says he has a neighbor from Syria, a doctor with his own clinic in Armenia. But now that neighbor is selling his clinic and apartment and planning to move to France. He and his family “lived in Armenia only a year, and you already cannot keep him” there. “That is the reality” of Armenian life now; as a result, the scholar says, “depopulation continues.”


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This is not a good news but no need of panic in my opinion,yet this is debatable.many nations have population that are in hundreds of thousands but they survive as state,I know the argument is that they don't have neighbors like ours,but some of these countries do have adversaries that are in dozens of millions.i don't know if this is a good example but Japan vs 1.5 bln Chinese,or Georgia vs Russia,many more,it's all alliance,weapons and politics that keep a state surviving in a short run,although population won't be a bad guarantee for a long run survival,I agree with the article on that.A good measure to check the population would be poll numbers for elections.constitutional reforms election had 2.5 mln capable registered voters,this means 2.5 mln 18+ population,another few hundred thousand teenagers and new borns that were excluded for age restriction can help add up the figure to 3 mln.I'm not sure if these mean permanent residence of Armenia whom shown activity in the country or regular passport holders that can even reside overseas ,someone on demographic studies please shed a light on this tyvm

[armnuke]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia &amp; Azerbaijan

Armenia Facing Demographic Collapse

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 12 Issue: 224December 15, 2015 05:33 PM Age: 3 days
By: Paul Goble

(Source: RT)
“ ‘All progressive humanity’ is concerned by the periodic reports about the disappearance of this or that type of plant or animal, [but] we are much less concerned about the disappearance of nations and nationalities,” Armenian expert Gevork Pogosyan says. Yet, as the post-Soviet period demonstrates, that can happen even to larger nations that have lost population numbers as a result of declining birthrates and increasing outmigration and assimilation (see EDM, December 11). One such country now facing a demographic collapse is Armenia, whose population has dropped by nearly 1.5 million since 1991 and is projected to decline by that much again over the next several decades (Kavkazoved.info, December 6).

Such declines call into question the long-term survival of Armenians as a nation, the director of the Yerevan Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Law suggests. But more immediately, they have significant security implications given that those leaving Armenia are the most educated portion of the population rather than the working class. And furthermore, Armenia remains locked in a conflict with its neighbor, Azerbaijan, over Karabakh and the other Armenian-occupied territories of Azerbaijan. But like the other Muslim republics of the former Soviet space, Azerbaijan is experiencing rapid population growth and is predicted to continue to do so for some time to come.

Between 1920 and 1991, Pogosyan says, Armenia’s population rose from 880,000 to approximately five million; but after 1991, it began to lose population and will continue to do so. In part, this reflects the decline in the birthrate by 50 percent over that period; but to a greater extent, it is the product of outmigration, something many Armenians thought might be temporary but which is proving to be permanent. “Hundreds of thousands have left, but only a handful have returned,” Pogosyan notes. And because it is the young who are leaving most often, the number of women in prime childbearing age groups is falling, which will push the population down even more, perhaps to only 1.5 million by mid-century. Moreover, that population will be far “grayer” than the current one.

Some of this reflects the real absence of opportunities in Armenia, the Yerevan scholar argues. But part of it signifies a spiritual crisis in which Armenians increasingly feel that they and their children have no future in a country that is locked in what appears to be a permanent, if undeclared, war and whose government has done little to fight domestic corruption or crime. The authorities, meanwhile, have often reacted with indifference to this trend or even welcomed it: One former prime minister said that if Armenians were not leaving the country in massive numbers, there would be a revolt at home.

If the problem is to be addressed, Pogosyan says, the government must first admit that the problem exists, something it has not been willing to do; and it must then adopt policies intended to change the existing national psychology. At the same time, it must recognize that some of the things it is doing to save the Armenian economy may be destroying the country’s demographic future. Entering the Eurasian Economic Union, for example, will make it even easier for Armenians to leave their country and never return. It is already the case, he says, that there are almost as many ethnic Armenians in Russia as there are in Armenia.

Moreover, he continues, it is not just a question of gross numbers. If many international guest workers from Muslim republics are low-skilled people, between 55 and 60 percent of Armenians leaving to work elsewhere are highly trained professionals. That further depresses the future of Armenia. And this trend gives no sign of easing. According to research his institute has done, Pogosyan says, “up to 40 percent of young people are set on leaving the country, either to study, for to work, or to live there and marry. This is a very bad symptom.”

Yerevan cannot hope to stop outmigration, Pogosyan asserts, but what it must do if the nation is to have a future is to promote “circular migration,” in which Armenians go abroad for part of their lives and then return to Armenia. That is the pattern in Europe, and Yerevan must take steps to make it the pattern in Armenia as well. At the same time, it must do more to attract Armenians from the eight-million-strong Armenian diaspora. To date, however, Yerevan has not been doing that. For example, he says, it has taken in only 7,000 Armenians from Syria out of an Armenian community there of 150,000.

But the situation is even worse than those figures suggest, Pogosyan states, because many of the Syrian Armenians who have come to Armenia are using it as a way station until they can move to Europe or the United States. He says he has a neighbor from Syria, a doctor with his own clinic in Armenia. But now that neighbor is selling his clinic and apartment and planning to move to France. He and his family “lived in Armenia only a year, and you already cannot keep him” there. “That is the reality” of Armenian life now; as a result, the scholar says, “depopulation continues.”


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[Mos]

Re: Birth rate in Armenia

I think though more and more people are returning to Armenia, even if for short visits. Armenia is the hub for all Armenians around the world.