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Armenia's Isolation Grows Only Deeper
By SUSAN SACHS
Published: December 26, 2004
EREVAN, Armenia - Landlocked and stuck in a cold war with two of its four neighbors, Armenia has rarely seemed so alone as in the past few months.
Citing terrorism concerns, Russia abruptly sealed its border with Georgia in September and kept it closed for nearly two months, effectively cutting off the road that was the main route for Armenian trade with Russia.
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At the same time, Armenians had to watch from the sidelines as Azerbaijan and Georgia celebrated the completion of a large section of the pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The $5 billion regional energy project bypasses Armenia and excludes it from the hefty fees the participating countries will get.
Another bitter pill came in October, when the European Union's executive commission recommended that Turkey start negotiations for full membership without first having to end its rail and land blockade of Armenia. [On Dec. 17, the European Union invited Turkey to begin those talks without mentioning Armenia's demands in its decision. European Union leaders said Turkey could join within 10 years.
For many people in this impoverished country, the events added up to a reminder of their deepening isolation.
"If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an island," said Levon Barseghyan, who is active in politics in Gyumri, a rundown town on a railway line that was closed by Turkey in 1992. "Everyone will forget about Armenia."
As winter closes in, bringing the risk of new hardships in a country heavily dependent on imports and foreign aid, the prospects appear grim without outside intervention.
Despite infusions of cash from Armenians living abroad that account for more than 20 percent of the country's income, and strong economic growth for the last decade, nearly half of the country's three million people live in poverty, on less than $2 a day. The limited opportunities have contributed to an exodus of working-age Armenians since independence 13 years ago, with some estimates putting the population loss at nearly 30 percent.
Armenia's long-running conflict with Azerbaijan, its oil-rich neighbor to the east, remains one of the more intractable problems left from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Both countries claim Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous slice of land that is geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists. Their six-year war over the region ended with a cease-fire in 1994, after 35,000 people had been killed and an estimated one million, most of them Azeri, had become refugees.
Turkey, Armenia's big neighbor to the west, has backed its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, and closed its land border with Armenia. Turkish leaders have said they will not reopen the border until Armenia starts withdrawing its troops from in and around Karabakh. Peace negotiations have ground to a standstill despite mediation efforts by Russia, France and the United States.
"On neither side is there a public mood that is conducive to compromise," said a Western diplomat in Yerevan.
The stalemate has left Armenia boxed in from the east and the west. Turkish and Russian goods make their way to Armenia, but with the added cost of air transportation or road transit through third countries like Georgia.
Georgia's roads, however, have sometimes been closed because of political instability or, as was the case this fall, because of action by Russia. Armenia's only other direct outlet is through Iran to the south, where trade has been hampered by a poor road network and lack of railway lines. The cost of building two needed new lines to Iran has been estimated at more than $1.5 billion.
Armenian officials have been eager to revive peace talks with Azerbaijan but have also refused to make unilateral concessions on Karabakh, which they consider liberated Armenian territory, in exchange for Turkey's reopening of rail and road traffic.
"We won't trade off Karabakh for a railroad," said the foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, adding that Armenians have learned to cope with their isolation. "Things are evolving around us," he said. "Let it be."
Many Armenians, foreign donors and economists are not nearly as sanguine.
While the economy has recovered from the near-total blockade on Armenia in the early 1990's, its growth rate could increase by as much as 50 percent if the eastern and western borders reopened, according to international studies.
Such dire circumstances might be expected to provoke political unrest. But President Robert Kocharian, a Karabakh native and former commander of the separatist forces who was re-elected to a second term last year, has wide public support for his Karabakh policy.
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"Every day the government tells us our economy can flourish without opening the Turkish border and without solving the Karabakh problem," said Aram Abrahamyan, editor of the daily Aravot. "And the government propaganda succeeds with the common people."
But a continuation of the status quo could be costly. Armenia 2020, a privately financed research group in Yerevan, has commissioned studies of the country's future, based on a range of possible developments including no easing of the blockade on Armenia. The studies concluded that "if there are no changes, there is no prosperity," said Artashes Kazakhetsyan, the director of the group.
Armenia has focused much of its effort on a two-pronged approach to Turkey. It has appealed directly to Turkish leaders to normalize relations. At the same time, it has tried to increase diplomatic pressure, openly questioning Turkey's fitness to start European Union entry talks before addressing Armenian grievances.
In an interview, Mr. Oskanyan said he did not understand why European leaders ignored what he called Turkey's "faults and shortcomings" with regard to Armenia. "What is regrettable," he said, "is that Europe is closing its eyes on Turkey's petulance."
While Turkey has changed many of its policies over the last two years to win European Union acceptance, there has been no indication of a shift in its official line toward Armenia.
Private contacts between Turks and Armenians will continue to be encouraged, said a senior Turkish diplomat in Ankara, who asked that his name not be used, in accordance with Foreign Ministry rules. Trade will continue. But the diplomat said the political impasse must be broken by Armenia.
"We can't change our policy on the Azeris," he said. "So the first move has to come from Armenia. We would like to see an opening, even a small opening, on Nagorno-Karabakh."
--------MY COMMENTS
It should be noted that anything from the NY Times should be taken with a grain of salt.
By SUSAN SACHS
Published: December 26, 2004
EREVAN, Armenia - Landlocked and stuck in a cold war with two of its four neighbors, Armenia has rarely seemed so alone as in the past few months.
Citing terrorism concerns, Russia abruptly sealed its border with Georgia in September and kept it closed for nearly two months, effectively cutting off the road that was the main route for Armenian trade with Russia.
Advertisement
At the same time, Armenians had to watch from the sidelines as Azerbaijan and Georgia celebrated the completion of a large section of the pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The $5 billion regional energy project bypasses Armenia and excludes it from the hefty fees the participating countries will get.
Another bitter pill came in October, when the European Union's executive commission recommended that Turkey start negotiations for full membership without first having to end its rail and land blockade of Armenia. [On Dec. 17, the European Union invited Turkey to begin those talks without mentioning Armenia's demands in its decision. European Union leaders said Turkey could join within 10 years.
For many people in this impoverished country, the events added up to a reminder of their deepening isolation.
"If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an island," said Levon Barseghyan, who is active in politics in Gyumri, a rundown town on a railway line that was closed by Turkey in 1992. "Everyone will forget about Armenia."
As winter closes in, bringing the risk of new hardships in a country heavily dependent on imports and foreign aid, the prospects appear grim without outside intervention.
Despite infusions of cash from Armenians living abroad that account for more than 20 percent of the country's income, and strong economic growth for the last decade, nearly half of the country's three million people live in poverty, on less than $2 a day. The limited opportunities have contributed to an exodus of working-age Armenians since independence 13 years ago, with some estimates putting the population loss at nearly 30 percent.
Armenia's long-running conflict with Azerbaijan, its oil-rich neighbor to the east, remains one of the more intractable problems left from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Both countries claim Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous slice of land that is geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists. Their six-year war over the region ended with a cease-fire in 1994, after 35,000 people had been killed and an estimated one million, most of them Azeri, had become refugees.
Turkey, Armenia's big neighbor to the west, has backed its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, and closed its land border with Armenia. Turkish leaders have said they will not reopen the border until Armenia starts withdrawing its troops from in and around Karabakh. Peace negotiations have ground to a standstill despite mediation efforts by Russia, France and the United States.
"On neither side is there a public mood that is conducive to compromise," said a Western diplomat in Yerevan.
The stalemate has left Armenia boxed in from the east and the west. Turkish and Russian goods make their way to Armenia, but with the added cost of air transportation or road transit through third countries like Georgia.
Georgia's roads, however, have sometimes been closed because of political instability or, as was the case this fall, because of action by Russia. Armenia's only other direct outlet is through Iran to the south, where trade has been hampered by a poor road network and lack of railway lines. The cost of building two needed new lines to Iran has been estimated at more than $1.5 billion.
Armenian officials have been eager to revive peace talks with Azerbaijan but have also refused to make unilateral concessions on Karabakh, which they consider liberated Armenian territory, in exchange for Turkey's reopening of rail and road traffic.
"We won't trade off Karabakh for a railroad," said the foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, adding that Armenians have learned to cope with their isolation. "Things are evolving around us," he said. "Let it be."
Many Armenians, foreign donors and economists are not nearly as sanguine.
While the economy has recovered from the near-total blockade on Armenia in the early 1990's, its growth rate could increase by as much as 50 percent if the eastern and western borders reopened, according to international studies.
Such dire circumstances might be expected to provoke political unrest. But President Robert Kocharian, a Karabakh native and former commander of the separatist forces who was re-elected to a second term last year, has wide public support for his Karabakh policy.
Advertisement
"Every day the government tells us our economy can flourish without opening the Turkish border and without solving the Karabakh problem," said Aram Abrahamyan, editor of the daily Aravot. "And the government propaganda succeeds with the common people."
But a continuation of the status quo could be costly. Armenia 2020, a privately financed research group in Yerevan, has commissioned studies of the country's future, based on a range of possible developments including no easing of the blockade on Armenia. The studies concluded that "if there are no changes, there is no prosperity," said Artashes Kazakhetsyan, the director of the group.
Armenia has focused much of its effort on a two-pronged approach to Turkey. It has appealed directly to Turkish leaders to normalize relations. At the same time, it has tried to increase diplomatic pressure, openly questioning Turkey's fitness to start European Union entry talks before addressing Armenian grievances.
In an interview, Mr. Oskanyan said he did not understand why European leaders ignored what he called Turkey's "faults and shortcomings" with regard to Armenia. "What is regrettable," he said, "is that Europe is closing its eyes on Turkey's petulance."
While Turkey has changed many of its policies over the last two years to win European Union acceptance, there has been no indication of a shift in its official line toward Armenia.
Private contacts between Turks and Armenians will continue to be encouraged, said a senior Turkish diplomat in Ankara, who asked that his name not be used, in accordance with Foreign Ministry rules. Trade will continue. But the diplomat said the political impasse must be broken by Armenia.
"We can't change our policy on the Azeris," he said. "So the first move has to come from Armenia. We would like to see an opening, even a small opening, on Nagorno-Karabakh."
--------MY COMMENTS
It should be noted that anything from the NY Times should be taken with a grain of salt.
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