Armenia's Economic Pulse

[Mos]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

I think by more interest by our leaders (holding Russians back) to make this happen with Iran.
Iran is a good ally

That's why would be really good for us if Iran joins Eurasian Economic Union.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

That's why would be really good for us if Iran joins Eurasian Economic Union.

That may be the only way the rail project can proceed. This project is against the interests of Russia, USA, Israel, Azerbadjan, Turkey and for the interests of Armenia, Iran and EU. Since EU is no more then a puppet of USA now, we cannot count on it for much. I think Russia will allow this project to proceed if Iran joins the EEU because it will enhance the EEU which is in Russia's interest. This rail project has great potential in enhancing Armenia's economy and breaking the blockade set up by the dogs that surround us.

[Mos]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

That may be the only way the rail project can proceed. This project is against the interests of Russia, USA, Israel, Azerbadjan, Turkey and for the interests of Armenia, Iran and EU. Since EU is no more then a puppet of USA now, we cannot count on it for much. I think Russia will allow this project to proceed if Iran joins the EEU because it will enhance the EEU which is in Russia's interest. This rail project has great potential in enhancing Armenia's economy and breaking the blockade set up by the dogs that surround us.

It can also be done in the grounds of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, if Armenia joins. Basically, if we are united with Russia, China, and Iran economically, great things can happen. That being said, let's not forget. Our border with Iran is small and the infrastructure there is feeble for large scale economic projects, we need to enhance that. Still, the route that takes us through Georgia to Russia and Black sea is still the most crucial one for us. That is why we have to be on good terms with Georgia.

Actually what would be an economic lifesaver for us, would be if Georgia joined EEU or at least normalized relations with Russia. Or better yet, if Georgia misbehaved again and Russia made sure to make a border with us

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

It can also be done in the grounds of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, if Armenia joins. Basically, if we are united with Russia, China, and Iran economically, great things can happen. That being said, let's not forget. Our border with Iran is small and the infrastructure there is feeble for large scale economic projects, we need to enhance that. Still, the route that takes us through Georgia to Russia and Black sea is still the most crucial one for us. That is why we have to be on good terms with Georgia.

Actually what would be an economic lifesaver for us, would be if Georgia joined EEU or at least normalized relations with Russia. Or better yet, if Georgia misbehaved again and Russia made sure to make a border with us

Yes Georgia is important and that is why USA took it over. I think Georgia can revert. It may take time but infrastructure developments between Iran and Armenia can become a reality because Iran and China are working together to promote each others interests. SCO is becoming a strong platform and holds opportunities for us.

[Mos]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Yes Georgia is important and that is why USA took it over. I think Georgia can revert. It may take time but infrastructure developments between Iran and Armenia can become a reality because Iran and China are working together to promote each others interests. SCO is becoming a strong platform and holds opportunities for us.

The problem is, without Georgia in SCO or Eurasian Union, our benefits are much more limited. What we need more than anything, is a direct transit route to Russia. If the Abkhazia Railway was opened from Abkhazia/Russia to Armenia, it would be one of the best things for us.

[londontsi]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

The problem is, without Georgia in SCO or Eurasian Union, our benefits are much more limited. What we need more than anything, is a direct transit route to Russia. If the Abkhazia Railway was opened from Abkhazia/Russia to Armenia, it would be one of the best things for us.

Georgia currently cannot join NATO because it has a territorial dispute, Abkhazia.

For the same reason the railway line will not open.

If the railway line opens means the Abkhazian dispute is accepted by Georgia and therefore immediately can join NATO.

Then we ( and they) are dealing with a different geopolitical equation.

[Mos]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Georgia currently cannot join NATO because it has a territorial dispute, Abkhazia.

For the same reason the railway line will not open.

If the railway line opens means the Abkhazian dispute is accepted by Georgia and therefore immediately can join NATO.

Then we ( and they) are dealing with a different geopolitical equation.

Our number one geopolitical goal should be to ensure a direct land connection with Russia. Such a connection would give a crucial economic insurance for the future and ensure military supplies from Russia enter uninterrupted.

[londontsi]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Armenia, Debtor Nation – Who Is Owed and How Much?

http://hetq.am/eng/news/61652/armenia-debtor-nationwho-is-owed-and-how-much.html/

In a July 2015 report http://jubileedebt.org.uk/wp-content...trap_07.15.pdf
published by the Jubilee Debt Campaign (JDC), Armenia is listed as one of 22 countries already in a government external debt crisis.

The report, undertaken with the assistance of the European Union, looks at countries’ total net debt (public and private sectors) future projected government debt payments, and the ongoing income deficit (or surplus) countries have with the rest of the world, and categorizes them as either in, or at risk of, new debt crises.

(The JDC report was abridged in an article entitled “Beyond Greece, the World is Filled with Debt Crises” published in The Guardian)

Armenia, and the 21 other countries listed as “already in debt crisis”, show a significant net debt (more than 30% of GDP), and high current government external debt payments (more than 15% of government revenue).

Over the past few years, Armenia’s national debt has drastically risen.

In 2004, Armenia’s national debt stood at US$957 million. Ten years later, according to Armenia’s National Statistical Service (NSS), the amount was $4.4 billion, of which $3.7 billion was external debt. Given Armenia’s stated GDP of $10.9 billion (Dec. 31, 2014), the country’s national debt comprised 40.4% of GDP, well above the 30% threshold delineated by the JDC.

More importantly, the question must be asked if these loans been effectively used and what, if any, economic sectors have benefited.

In this series of articles, Hetq will attempt to present the amounts owed by Armenia to various international lenders and how they were utilized.

Armenia started to receive international loans right after the country gained its independence in the early 1990s. The first lenders included the World Bank, European Union, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (ERBD), and Russia. Loans started to pile up after 1996.

By 1999, the ratio of national debt to GDP in Armenia stood at 50%. By 2008, it had dropped to 16% due to high levels of economic growth. By 2010, in the wake of the world financial crisis, it had risen to 40.4%. Armenia’s government claimed the rise was due to budgetary deficits and the devaluation of the AMD designed to protect the country’s economy.

As stated, Armenia closed out 2014 with a debt to GDP ratio of 40.4%. The latest figures (May 2015) published by the NSS peg the national debt (excluding domestic debt) at $3.924 billion, of which $3.493 was government debt and $430 million Central Bank debt.

64% of government debt has in the form of multilateral loan projects, 12.2% in bilateral loans, .4% commercial bank loans, and 23.4% in securities purchased by non-residents.

World Bank is largest lender to Armenia

The World Banks has provided Armenia the largest amount in terms of multilateral loan projects from monies derived from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association.

As of March 2015, Armenia’s debt to the World Bank amounts to $1.555 billion (39.6% of Armenia’s overall external debt).

According to a statement released this March 16 by the World Bank’s office in Armenia, starting in 1992 to date, the World Bank has lent Armenia a total of $2.06 billion for a variety of projects – infrastructure development, road construction, poverty reduction, improved governance, agriculture, education, health, etc. Last year, World Bank officials in Armenia said they plan to increase financial assistance in 2015. (Armenia joined the World Bank in 1992)

A number of lending projects have already been announced. There’s a $30 million loan to improve the quality of communal infrastructure and its accessibility to socially vulnerable groups. A grant of $8.5 million will go to project that will study whether geo-thermal power can be used to produce electricity. There’s also a $52 million loan to improve and update the country’s electricity distribution network.

The first loan agreement that Armenia signed with the World Bank was on April 7, 1993 as part of the Institutional Systems project. The loan totaled $12 million. The principal was finally paid off in March 2013.

(To be continued)

[londontsi]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Armenia, Debtor Nation – Who Is Owed and How Much? (Part 2)

http://hetq.am/eng/news/61745/armenia-debtor-nationwho-is-owed-and-how-much-part-2.html/

IMF is 2nd largest lender to Armenia

The second largest lender to Armenia has been the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

As of March 31, 2015 the IMF has lent Armenia US$ 412.580 million, or 10.5% of the country’s total foreign debt. (According to Armenia’s National Statistical Service – NSS). Armenia became a member of the IMF in 1992.

Armenia’s debt to the IMF drastically grew as of 2009, the year when the IMF lent Armenia 127.6 million in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as part of the Stand-by Arrangement and later, in 2010 and 2012, when the IMF allocated 101.8 million SDR as part of the Extended Credit Facility program. Bothe were designed to lessen the impact of the international financial crisis on Armenia.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is the third largest lender to Armenia. The country owes the ADB $300.617, or 7.7% of its foreign debt.

Armenia has been working with the ADB since 2005. Most of the ADB’s loans have gone to improving the transportation infrastructure, developing the country’s energy security and water distribution system. The North-South Highway program is being implemented mainly with ADB finds.

Armenia has also borrowed from the European Union, OPEC’s Fund for International Development (OFID), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development(ERBD) and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Loans from these organizations pale in comparison to the first three lenders noted above.

As of March 31, 2015, Armenia’s debt to the European Union is $70.498 million, OFID - $35.075 million, IFAD- $59.845, EIB - $58.432, ERBD - $19.196.

http://hetq.am/eng/news/61745/armeni...h-part-2.html/ Link for charts

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Most of it seems to be infrastructure development loans and that is good because that can pay for itself over time. The bad part is that the IMF and the world bank are notorious for lending too much (knowing the loans cannot be repaid) and then taking over the country like they have done to England and most recently to Greece. I think we do need to be wary of having too much debt yet there is still much developing left to be done.