Armenia's Economic Pulse

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

5.5% GDP growth registered in Armenia in 2010 first quarter
April 20, 2010 - 15:19 AMT 10:19 GMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - According to updated statistical data, Armenia’s GDP was 5.5% higher in January-March 2010 as compared with the same period of 2009.

The RA National Statistical Service reported that GDP amounted to AMD568.1 billion. At the same time, the country’s GDP increased by 43.1% in March as compared with February.

Besides, consumer prices were 8.4% higher in the first quarter of 2010 as compared with the same period of last year. Inflation rate reached 8.4% in March 2010.

The 2010 Armenian national budget envisages 1.2% economic growth and 4±1.5% inflation.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/economy/news/47388/55_GDP_growth_registered_in_Armenia_in_2010_first_quarter

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Quo vadis?
17:14 / 04/19/2010

By Albert Khachatryan

After the Government’s economic policy resulted in an ignominious failure, Armenian high-ranking officials have “taken heart of grace” and are now issuing optimistic forecasts one after another. The reason for their enthusiasm is the GDP growth registered early this year, which to a great extent was accounted for by a major increase in industrial output.

Indeed, industrial output showed an increase of as much as 9.4% (!) this January-February as compared with the corresponding period last year. The progress is really impressive, with a 7.8% decline in the Armenian industry in 2009 considered.

The minerals industry, with its share in the total industrial output being 19.2%, (8.3% last January-February) registered a 45.9% increase. No doubt, that was the immediate result of the positive changes on the world ferromolybdenum market. So we would greatly exaggerate if we put the progress down to the economic policy implemented in the country.

The processing industry is an undisputed leader in the Armenian industrial sector, with its share being 56.4% this January-February. The processing industry registered a 9.2% increase in output and seems to have overcome last year’s stagnation and be making up the leeway. This is, however, at first blush.

In the processing industry the greatest progress was achieved by the enterprises that are closely cooperating with the extractive industry. Specifically, the output of hard nonmetallic minerals showed a 98% increase (its share in the Armenian industry being 4.2%); the output of base metals showed a 6.7% increase (16.2%), etc..

As regards the food industry, its figures leave to be desired. This January-February as compared with last January-February, the food output showed a 0.1% decrease, output of beverages a 2.7% decrease, and tobacco output a decrease of as much as 12.9%.

As regards beverages, the output of vodka, the most popular hard drink in Armenia, showed a 60.5% decrease. This fact could only be welcomed if the consumption of the “demon drink” reduced as much. But such significant progress can hardly be achieved in one year. So we can be sure that Armenian citizens go on drinking and smoking — to an extent imported drinks and baccy.

If continue, the aforementioned market trends threaten the Armenian market with import domination and a worse situation in the import substitution industries. Last year’s USD revaluation against the AMD was expected to improve the situation in the industries, which, however, did not happen.

The Armenian light industry is in a similar deplorable state. This January-February the symbolic textiles output showed a 48.8% decrease, and the clothing output a 21.7% decrease. So the USD revaluation did not even stabilize the situation in this industry. So we should not be euphoric about the industrial production index in Armenia. As we have mentioned above, a better situation in the raw-materials industry mainly accounts for the better index.

As regard the processing industry, of interest is the following fact: this January- February as many metal-cutting machine tools were produced in Armenia as last January-February – one machine tool in two months! So what diversification of production, and related export, can we dream of if the Armenian industry is only based on ferromolybdenum, copper concentrate, aluminum foil and brandy?

T.P.

http://news.am/en/news/19402.html

Sounds like a one track mind pessimist to me. I dought this analist needed any data to write this commentery.

[Federate]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Significant growth recorded in Armenia’s industry by end of first quarter

April 22, 2010 - 14:58 AMT 09:58 GMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarsgyan said that Armenia’s Ministry of Economy conducts monitoring of certain enterprises what allows determining increase in separate fields of industry.

Summarizing the results of the first quarter, Mr. Sargsyan said that, according to updated data of the RA National Statistical Service, the growth was recorded in retail trade, while the volume of services increased by 6% by the end of the first quarter. “60% and 23% growth was recorded in export and import respectively, while the increase in export volumes is basically conditioned by its growth in the mining and raw materials’ industry, as well as by improvement of the world economy’s indexes,” the Prime Minister stated during the April 22 session of the government.

According to Mr. Sargsyan, the mining and raw materials’ industry increased by 21%, construction materials’ production – by 50%, meanwhile, the major part of the produced output was exported, securing a growth in the first quarter of 2010 as compared with the same period of last year. Good indexes were recorded in the chemical industry; they grew by 2.5 times that is conditioned also by positive indexes in medicines production. Besides, 40% growth was recorded in the fields of gold mining and diamond cutting. The machine tool industry grew by three times, while equipment production – by 15%.

Tigran Sargsyan informed that the rates of growth in the information technologies are preserved, making 3% by the end of the first quarter.

The Prime Minister added that 5% increase was recorded in tourism, while the passenger traffic also grew by 5% during the first quarter as compared with the same period of last year.

At the same time, Mr. Sargsyan noted that minor recession was recorded in light industry, wood production and electrical engineering. “A recession is still fixed in these and construction industry,” he noted.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/economy/news/47527/Significant_growth_recorded_in_Armenias_industry_by_end_of_first_quarter

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Sargsyan Courts China
May 3, 2010 - 1:47pm, by Giorgi Lomsadze
Tamada Tales Armenia China Serzh Sargsyan
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan is on a mission to Shanghai. The president has requested Chinese corporations to stop over in Armenia as they make their way toward Western markets.

After tanking by more than 18.2 percent in 2009, the Armenian economy could definitely use some Chinese cash. Hundreds of millions of dollars in life support from international donors have not yet made up for that amputated economic growth.

On the sidelines of the World Expo, where China flaunted its booming economy, Sargsayn signed a cooperation memo with Chinese telecommunication technology giant Huawei Technologies. Sargsyan tried to gauge the interest of Huawei and its rival Zhong Xing Equipment in several projects in Armenia.

International development groups have urged Armenia to diversify its sources of income after revenues from foreign remittances and its once booming construction sector dried up amidst the global financial crisis.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/60969

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

SERZH SARGSIAN ATTENDS JIANGXI-NAIRIT JOINT ARMENIAN-CHINESE ENTERPRISE LAUNCH CEREMONY

NOYAN TAPAN - ARMENIANS TODAY
MAY 4, 2010
YEREVAN

YEREVAN, MAY 4, NOYAN TAPAN - ARMENIANS TODAY. On May 3, RA President
Serzh Sargsian, during his visit to China, attended the Jiangxi-Nairit
joint Armenian-Chinese chloroprene rubber manufacturing enterprise
launch ceremony.

The Jiangxi-Nairit joint Armenian-Chinese enterprise was created on
the agreement signed between the Jiangxi group of synthetic rubber
stock companies and Nairit CJSC in 2003, with Armenian side possessing
40% shares.

Mr. Sargsian also met with Jiangxi governor, RA President's Press
Office reported. According to the same source, collaboration expansion
prospects were discussed.

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

China and Armenia expect 30,000 tons chloroprene output

May 5, 2010 (China Knowledge) - China and Armenia's chloroprene rubber joint-venture project, see the annual output capacity hit 30,000 tons from May 2010.

"The project is the largest one for the two countries, and we are expecting a lot at it", Armenian Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Armen Movsisyan said.

The chloroprene rubber project with annual output capacity of 30,000 tons is invested by Shanxi Synthetic Rubber Group Co Ltd and an Armenian company. A new firm called Shanna Synthetic Rubber Co Ltd was founded to operate the project. As of the end of March this year, the project had involved investment of RMB 1.65 billion. It reached the trail production standard last month.

Shanxi Synthetic Rubber Group Co Ltd, the largest chloroprene rubber producer in China, is a subsidiary company of China National Bluestar (Group) Co Ltd.

http://www.chinaknowledge.com/Newswires/News_Detail.aspx?type=1&cat=CMP&NewsID=%2033473

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

CZECH REPUBLIC MAY INVEST IN CONSTRUCTION OF ARMENIAN HYDROPOWER PLANTS: PM

YEREVAN, May 10, /ARKA/. Czech businessmen may invest in construction of hydropower plants in Armenia, prime minister Tigran Sarkisian said Sunday in comments on his last week trip to Prague and his talks with Czech prime minister Jan Fischer.

He said some Armenian companies building and reconstructing small hydropower plants in Armenia are already cooperating with Czech companies. In his words, the fact that Armenia is rich in hydropower resources is a serious factor for Czech companies wishing to invest in Armenia.

Armenian hydropower plants produced last year about 2 billion KWh of electrical power, almost one third of overall 5.8 billion KWh generated in 2009. Small hydropower plants produced 335 million KWh. Experts say only one third of Armenia’s hydropower resources are used currently.

Tigran Sarkisian said also he informed his opposite number in Prague about Yerevan’s plans to build a new unit for it nuclear power plant

Armenia wants to replace the aging Metsamor nuclear plant by 2017. With a projected capacity of 1,060 megawatts, the new facility would be more than twice as powerful as Metsamor’s sole operating reactor that generates more than 40% of Armenia’s electricity. It will serve for 60 years and secure European safety level.

The Armenian government has yet to attract funding for the project which is estimated to cost as much as $5 billion. Construction is expected to start in 2011. Under a 2003 agreement Armenian nuclear power plant’s financial flows are managed by Russian Inter RAO UES, owned by Russian state-run Rosatom corporation. The agreement expires in 2013. --0-

http://www.arka.am/eng/energy/2010/05/10/19801.html

ARMENIAN GDP GROWTH IN 2010 MAY EXCEED PROJECTED TARGETS TWICE: PM

YEREVAN, May 10, /ARKA/. Armenia’s full-year economic expansion may exceed the projected target by 2 or 2.5 times, prime minister Tigran Sarkisian said Sunday, linking it with favorable international economic situation. When drafting its 2010 budget, the Armenian government projected a 1.2% GDP growth for this year.

‘If the international financial and economic situation stays within the frameworks as described by IMF in its 2010 forecasts, we are sure to have twice as bigger GDP growth than we have projected,’ Sarkisian said to journalists.

IMF has projected a 1.8% GDP growth for 2010 and a 3% growth for 2011. According to its World Economic Outlook report, the real economic growth in 20105 may rise to 4.5%.

According to the prime minister, the government is implementing currently a more conservative scenario. “Today we can say that with high GDP growth rate we shall be able to ensure high revenue collection rate and due to it we shall form certain reserves in our stabilization fund to be prepared for new challenges abundant in the modern world,’ he said.

Armenian GDP contracted by as much as 14.4 percent in 2009 after a decade of robust growth. It resumed in the first quarter of 2010 as economic conditions around the world, and in Russia in particular, began to improve. In the first quarter the GDP was reported to expand to 5.5%. -0-

http://www.arka.am/eng/economy/2010/05/10/19800.html

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

NEW MEDICAL PLANT TO BE BUILT IN YEREVAN

ARKA
May 11, 2010
YEREVAN

Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan was present today at the foundation
stone laying ceremony for construction of a new plant in Yerevan to
produce disposable medical equipment.

Zhirayr Apoyan, head of SMT company, which is part of Russian Athena
Pallada company, said the first batch will be produced in the first
quarter of 2011. He said the plant will be producing syringes, blood
containers that do not need storage.

Zhirayr Apoyan said part of the products will be sold at local market
and other part will be sold abroad.

The plant will create about 800 new jobs with an average wage of
150,000 Drams or $380. Armenian economy minister Nerses Yeritsian
said the plant's products will meet highest international requirements.

[Davo88]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

Eastern Europe's Recovery Path Uncertain

By CLARE CONNAGHAN

ZAGREB, Croatia—The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said Saturday the recovery path in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union is "exceptionally uncertain" at present with risks tilted to the downside in the short-term given the current volatility surrounding euro zone sovereign debt.

The development bank said the recovery—which is underway in most countries in the region—is now being "overshadowed by euro zone market volatility and increasing pressures to accelerate fiscal consolidation in East and West."

As a result, external risks are rising, while domestic risks in emerging Europe, such as rising unemployment and bad loans are leveling off, the EBRD said.

To date, though, the crisis in Greece hasn't had any significant impact on the region, the EBRD said.

But there are concerns, particularly in southeastern Europe, given the role Greek banks play there, the EBRD said. "Another risk is weaker European Union growth as a result of either fiscal consolidation, or renewed problems in the European banking sectors."

The EBRD was founded in 1991 to help countries in eastern Europe make the transition to market from centrally planned economies after the collapse of communism.

After experiencing between 2008 and 2009 the worst financial crisis since the start of the transition process, the recovery in the region has now begun, although the pace remains slow on average and lagging most other emerging markets regions, the EBRD said.

In its latest report on the 29 countries in which it invests, the EBRD said their combined gross domestic product will grow by 3.7% this year, having forecast in January that GDP would expand by 3.3%.

By contrast, the International Monetary Fund expects Asian economies to expand by 7.1% and Latin America and the Caribbean economies to grow by 4% in 2010.

"The deep recessions of late 2008 and 2009 continue to have knock-on effects in the form of high nonperforming loans and unemployment, which constrain credit growth and the recovery of domestic demand."

The bank noted that there is increasing divergence across countries in the region, with little evidence to date of a sustained recovery in southeastern Europe.

On the contrary, in Turkey and Armenia much faster recoveries are underway, while Russia and the Slovak Republic are rebounding much faster than initially expected, the EBRD said.

The development bank said the Russian economy—by far the region's largest—will likely grow by 4.4% this year and 4.6% in 2011. Surging oil prices have helped Russia's economy stage a comeback from its worst recession in 15 years, but the country remains highly dependent on commodity prices, particularly oil, the EBRD said.

Turkey and Armenia are expected to be among the region's best performers this year, having staged an impressive rebound. The EBRD expects Turkey's economy to grow by 5.9% this year and 4% in 2011, while Armenia's economy is expected to expand by 10% in 2010 and 3% in 2011.

Poland, which managed to avoid a recession, will likely grow by 2.6% this year and 3.3% in 2010.

Meanwhile, Latvia and Lithuania—both of whom peg their currencies to the euro—are starting to see their deep recessions bottoming out, the EBRD said. But the pace of the recovery will remain constrained and both economies are still expected to register contractions in year-over-year terms, the EBRD said. It expects Latvia's economy to shrink by 3% in 2010, then expand by 3% in 2011 and Lithuania's economy to shrink by 1.5% this year, then grow by 3% in 2011.

"By contrast, Estonia should show a return to moderate growth this year, and sentiment should be further buoyed by euro adoption in 2011, which looks likely following the favorable convergence assessment by the European Commission on May 12, 2010," the EBRD said.

Outside of the Baltic states, Ukraine suffered one of the largest contractions as a result of the global slowdown. But following successful presidential elections earlier this year, confidence is returning and the EBRD forecasts positive growth of 4% in Ukraine this year and 4% again in 2011.

"Market confidence returned to Ukraine after the presidential elections as the authorities focused on defining their structural reform and fiscal consolidation agenda and reengaged in program discussions with the International Monetary Fund."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704614204575245763054626920.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

[ninetoyadome]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse

ARMENIA RANKED 52ND IN WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM’S GLOBAL ENABLING TRADE REPORT

YEREVAN, May 25. /ARKA/. Armenia is ranked 52nd in World Economic Forum’s Global Enabling Trade Report.

The country upgraded its rank by 12 positions, compared with 2009. According to the report, Armenia’s enabling trade index is 4.24 this year.
Armenia improved all its indicators.

In particular, it improved its market access index to 5.33 and came ninth in World Economic Forum’s ranking.

Armenia took up medium positions for its ability to spur a free flow of goods and reached progress also in boarder administration ranking, improving its index to 3.52.

Armenia’s rank in business environment and development of transportation and communication infrastructures report remains almost unchanged, but the country was placed 20 points higher for the number of mobile telecommunication users.

Remarkable is that Armenia outdone Azerbaijan who ranked 77th this year, Russia (114th rank), Kazakhstan (88th) and Ukraine (81st), and is lagging only behind Georgia (37th) in the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Singapore, with its 6.06 enabling trade index, is topping the World Economic Forum’s ranking now, as in 2009.

Hong Kong, with 5.70, follows Singapore. Then Denmark and Sweden come with their 5.41.
Switzerland (5.37) is fifth in top five. Ivory Coast, Chad and Burundi took the worst positions.
The enabling trade index measures the factors, policies and services that facilitate the trade in goods across borders and to destination.

The ranking, which spans 125 counties, is made up of four sub-indices: market access, border administration,　transport and communications infrastructure and business environment.
Market access index shows how much a country has accomplished in spurring turnover of imports on local market and free access of domestic manufacturers to foreign markets.

Border administration shows how mechanisms applied in this area foster effectiveness of flows of goods.

Business environment index means environment regulating a country’s import and export. Transport and communications infrastructure index estimates effectiveness of inside and outside freight traffic.-0---

http://www.arka.am/eng/economy/2010/05/25/20041.html

[Alexandros]

Re: Armenia's Economic Pulse



Armenia hopeful for fast conclusion of RA-EU free trade agreement

May 26, 2010 - 17:37 AMT 12:37 GMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - During his working visit to Brussels, Armenian President met with EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht.

RA-EU free trade agreement conclusion was discussed at the meeting.

“Armenia is interested to sign an agreement guaranteeing entrance to European market. RA has been WTO member since 2003, with serious reforms implemented in trade sphere to bring it into conformity with European Commission standards,” Serzh Sargsyan emphasized.

Armenian leader expressed hope for EU Trade Commissioner’s assistance in agreement conclusion process, presidential press service reported.

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