Armenia and the information war

[SevSpitak]

Re: Armenia and the information war

Iran to give history lessons to Azerbaijan
Original Article

The Azerbaijani representatives of the “Movement of National Revival of South Azerbaijan” organization told to “Musavat.com” that Iran has decided to pass a conference dedicated to the falsifications of the Azerbaijani history.

According to the sources, Iran is concerned with the falsified scientific researches that have been discovered during the recent years especially concerning the history, culture, national identity of Azerbaijan and the Atrpatakan provinces. They are as a rule being spread among the youth. The conferences will be dedicated to the strengthening of the national unity of Iran, Islam and correct presentation of the history of Iran, as well as they will touch upon the falsifications of the Azerbaijani history. The reports will also be about the identity changes in the history of the independent Azerbaijan and its renovation.

“Musavat.com” supposes that the Iranian authorities are preparing a kind of surprise for Azerbaijan and its people.

Aysor.am

Hahaha!

[Armanen]

Re: Armenia and the information war

War is not even a solution, because as you say a new war right now could break into a regional, larger scale war...we could be in front of WWIII and by God let's hope such thing will never happen. In this case, war is not on the interests of the superpowers or the people who benefits from it (which at the end are the ones who always start wars). Just in the case of Azerbaijan, Aliyev is too much comfortable on the power and he needs more money to buy his children's children houses in Dubai, the Caribbean,...a war would bring instability and just by that part is already dangerous for his regime, for the APF would try to overthrow him.

In this case, the only ones who can start a war are Russia and Turkey, for the major interests they have in the region which compromises those in favor of Russia and those in favor or Turkey...and for such thing to happen many bad things have to happen in a period of time, and as of today both countries are "OK" at each other...

The most dangerous thing that can happen here is that we lose in the diplomatic field, which is the side that Azerbaijan knows is the only where we are rather weaker and they will try to hit us hard, so what we should do is strengheten our diplomatic capability in order to not suffer "losses".

Exactly! The last thing aliyev needs is a war. In case of war three things will occur for sure, foreign direct investment will dry up, oil/gas revenue will decrease, and there will be a expectation of a quick victory by the azeri populace which won't happen and thus the aliyev clans hold on power will be threatened.

Armenia has less to lose, and more to gain from an azeri resumption of hostilities than does azerbaijan.

[Haykakan]

Re: Armenia and the information war

"Armenia has less to lose, and more to gain from an azeri resumption of hostilities than does azerbaijan."
This is not true. Armenia has everything to lose in case of defeat and actually not a whole lot more to gain either. We have a hard time making use of the lands we already got, how will we protect and use more land? Defeat for Armenia will mean extermination of its people while defeat for the azeris simply means a possible revolution there thus we have more to lose. Victory for Armenia will mean a better nagotiating position while for azeris it will mean getting lots of land and solidification of the aliev dynasty. One could safely argue that the best and worst scenerios are in the azeri side with them gaining more in victory and losing less in defeat. A stalemate is not a particularly healthy scenerio but it is better then war for Armenia and kharabagh and will probably continue. The eruption of war is good for no one including the super powers but it may be inevitable wo some kind of resolution. The resolution does not have to be now it can come later, even much later but the stalemate scenerio while to our advantage is still not a healthy state.

[Armanen]

Re: Armenia and the information war

"Armenia has less to lose, and more to gain from an azeri resumption of hostilities than does azerbaijan."
This is not true. Armenia has everything to lose in case of defeat and actually not a whole lot more to gain either. We have a hard time making use of the lands we already got, how will we protect and use more land? Defeat for Armenia will mean extermination of its people while defeat for the azeris simply means a possible revolution there thus we have more to lose. Victory for Armenia will mean a better nagotiating position while for azeris it will mean getting lots of land and solidification of the aliev dynasty. One could safely argue that the best and worst scenerios are in the azeri side with them gaining more in victory and losing less in defeat. A stalemate is not a particularly healthy scenerio but it is better then war for Armenia and kharabagh and will probably continue. The eruption of war is good for no one including the super powers but it may be inevitable wo some kind of resolution. The resolution does not have to be now it can come later, even much later but the stalemate scenerio while to our advantage is still not a healthy state.

Armenia would have to make serious blunders and/or turkey would have to get involved on azeri side for Armenia to lose a war with azerbaijan. There military is very corrupt, low morale, and they have to fight an uphill battle, not to mention that the attacking side will have to deal with thousands of mines in order to reach the other side! This is the reality, and while war is unpredictable, we can work off the above facts to say that Armenia is the stronger military actor of the two. Defeat for azerbaijan means at least a change in regime, but also a very real possibility of loss of sovereignty. And as I mentioned above, the azeri economy is based on oil/gas exports which would dry up if a war occurs. Victory for Armenia will mean we keep all of Artsakh, and them some, it also removes the azeri threat for a long time if not for good.

As for baku, they have no real positives, they are beholden to Moscow now, turkey has shown that they will deal with Armenia regardless of Artsakh issue, and Iran is no help either. Official baku is in panic mode.

The eruption of war is not good for anyone now, but that isn't going to be the case forever, and the biggest player in the region, Russia, will dictate the outcome of the war if not the beginning as well. azerbiajan knows damn well what Russia thinks of 'unfreezing' so called frozen conflicts vis a vis S. Ossetia. The de facto situation serves Armenia, I agree with that.

[ashot24]

Re: Armenia and the information war

There military is very corrupt, low morale, and they have to fight an uphill battle, not to mention that the attacking side will have to deal with thousands of mines in order to reach the other side!

Haha I loved this part!

But we should also take into account a case in which Azerbaijan doesn't attack Artsakh but Armenia, I know it would be much harder for them, but we should strengthen our border security, specially in the Tavush marz where they have been entering some days ago.

[Armanen]

Re: Armenia and the information war

Haha I loved this part!

But we should also take into account a case in which Azerbaijan doesn't attack Artsakh but Armenia, I know it would be much harder for them, but we should strengthen our border security, specially in the Tavush marz where they have been entering some days ago.

Yes, that is an area that needs more defensive mechanisms. I think our military leaders are aware of this issue, and will take proper measures, if they have not done so already.

[Federate]

Re: Armenia and the information war

Haha I loved this part!

But we should also take into account a case in which Azerbaijan doesn't attack Artsakh but Armenia, I know it would be much harder for them, but we should strengthen our border security, specially in the Tavush marz where they have been entering some days ago.

That will have to theoretically bring in the CSTO to help us because Armenia itself is being directly attacked. Of course, I doubt the CSTO will do such a thing (outside of Russia) other than condemnations.

[ashot24]

Re: Armenia and the information war

That will have to theoretically bring in the CSTO to help us because Armenia itself is being directly attacked. Of course, I doubt the CSTO will do such a thing (outside of Russia) other than condemnations.

I thought the same, other than Russia, maybe Belarus in terms of pressure by Russia, no CSTO member would help us. What can you expect from the Turkic-stan countries other than support Azerbaijan? In the end, they support pan-turanism too at some level. They wouldn't even condemn they would applause...

[ashot24]

Re: Armenia and the information war

'If Necessary, We'll Deport Armenians from Turkey': Erdogan
11:15 • 17.03.10

If necessary, Turkey’s authorities can deport Armenians living illegally in Turkey, said Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, replying to questions by Huseyin Alkan from the BBC Turkish service in London yesterday.

“There are 170,000 Armenians in my country, of which 70,000 are my citizens. We’re turning a blind eye to the other 100,000. However, tomorrow, if it becomes necessary, I would say to those 100,000, go back to your country. Why? Because they’re not my citizens; I’m not obliged to keep them in my country,” said Erdogan.

The Turkish PM also turned his attention to the passing of resolutions which recognize the Armenian Genocide by various countries around the world, saying that the crisis which results from such decisions will harm Armenia itself.

“None of those interests us. None of those have room between Armenia and Turkey. They’re [just] playing games for themselves. What connection do those countries have with Armenia? Who gave them that responsibility? They, with their approved decisions, are putting on a show… And they’re harming the people of Armenia…,” said Erdogan.

“We resolutely continue and will continue our policy based on the principle of ‘zero issues with neighbours.’ However, when we are showing our hand while the other side is showing a fist, there’s nothing left for us to do. But we will always show our hand in the name of reconciliation and peace, in the name of love. It’s enough that the hand before us doesn’t become a fist…,” said the Turkish PM, while calling for countries who are friendly with Armenia to support the process of normalizing relations between the two states.

Asked whether as a result of the approval of Armenian Genocide resolutions, Turkey’s foreign policy finds itself in a tight bind, Erdogan said, “There are no such issues at this time. Developments connected to Armenia are not our but Armenia’s issues and concerns… And currently, it’s necessary for Armenia to make a very important decision. Armenia has to free itself from its dependence on [its] Diaspora. If there are countries who like Armenia, such as the United States, Russia and France, they should free Armenia from Diasporan dependence.”

Asked whether the US House Foreign Affairs Committee approval of H.Res.252 recognizing the Armenian Genocide will have a negative effect on Turkish-American relations, Erdogan stressed that he continues to believe in and trust the United States.

“I don’t think [the passing of H.Res.252 will affect Turkish-American relations negatively]; that’s not possible. I wish to state the following: Turkish-American relations have no relation whatsoever to Armenian-Turkish relations. We have strategic relations,” said Erdogan.

http://tert.am/en/news/2010/03/17/erdogan/

[Tigranakert]

Re: Armenia and the information war

Radio Free Europe questioning Armenian genocide, by putting the word genocide in quotations

Russian Patriarch Honors Armenia 'Genocide' Victims

http://www.rferl.org/content/Russian_Patriarch_Honors_Armenia_Genocide_Victims/1986689.html

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