Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[guess]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan negotiating purchase of Russian air-defence system



Russia is reported to be negotiating sales of its Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile system to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani news agency APA said that Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are all in negotiations with Russia on buying the missile complex, codenamed SA-22 Greyhound by NATO.

Russia's arms exporter Rosoboronexport has received orders for the Pantsir-S1 from Algeria and Morocco and has already sold the missile complex to Syria, Iran, the UAE and Oman.

The Pantsir-S1 is designed to provide short-range air defence with a target range of 20 kilometres. It can be mounted on a tracked or wheeled vehicle or be stationary.

The Pantsir-S1 replaces the Tunguska complex in the Russian army.

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Army

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Last year I spoke with two veterens in Gyumri who were leaders of their respective detachments during the war. Their explanation was: no it wasn't that simple. We were running out of manpower ourselves. We had defended land that was ours, land that was familiar to us. What would we have done beyond our mountains. We would have found ourselves on the offensive, on the plains that we had no familiarity with, no desire to control, and no man power to control .

It is a pity that such commonsense does not match your deleted "3000-year-civilisation" post.

Even if military capabilites were equal, Armenia can never inflict a conclusive defeat over Azerbaijan because Armenian forces can never penetrate into Azerbaijan in depth as far as Baku.
Azerbaijan, however, IS capable of inflicting a conclusive defeat over Armenia because all it need do is capture the majority of Nagorno Karabagh, for in that act it will destroy the very thing that Armenia is fighting to defend.

Militarily, Armenia must thus concentrate on the in-depth defense of Nagorno Karabagh, and on making any planned attack by Azerbaijan be as costly to Azerbaijan as possible (militarily, politicaly, and economically) and as uncertain in its outcome as possible. Unless Azerbaijan changes in a major way, such a strategy is really just a delaying tactic and is economically, socially, and probably also militarily unsustainable in the very long term - so Armenia must also engage with international partners so that Azerbaijan's ability to act is severely restrained and that it is made even more costly, economically and diplomatically, for Azerbaijan to act with military force. Armenia must also start to make it clear to the world what the inevitable end result of successful Azerbaijani aggression will be (the anihalation of the entire population of NK, and the destruction of all Armenian cultural monuments within its territory). It thus becomes an issue of human rights and democracy versus genocide.

Unfortunately, such tactics are not compatible with close association with a totalitarian state like Russia, or in an Armenia where extremist and racist voices are given credibilityat the highest levels, where the same international values that will make it an issue of human rights and democracy versus genocide are dismissed as being "un Armenian", where there are 3000-year-civilisation fantasists who claim Armenia can never be defeated and that 1 Armenian soldier is worth 10 Azeri ones, and where the social structure of the country is backward and repressive and in a state of disfunctional collapse.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Yeh bell you make a lot of sense but still you do not state any solutions. Like yeh Russia is this and that and Azeris are strong ..but like since when has the world cared about Armenians being victims of genocide?

[edojan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijans capabilities hinge on oil revenues which fell 11%, mid term next 5 years to long 10 years revenues will slump considerably! Artificial bubble created will burst soon. Armed forces will no longer be able to afford to keep the new shiny toys in working order in the long term. Armenian on the other hand is strategically increasing its capabilities and military production. Azeri economy/army is hinged on OIL and GAS, which are dwindling resources, look for middle east countries as a road-map of things to come....

http://eiti.org/news/azerbaijan-oil-...evenue-decline

It is a pity that such commonsense does not match your deleted "3000-year-civilisation" post.

Even if military capabilites were equal, Armenia can never inflict a conclusive defeat over Azerbaijan because Armenian forces can never penetrate into Azerbaijan in depth as far as Baku.
Azerbaijan, however, IS capable of inflicting a conclusive defeat over Armenia because all it need do is capture the majority of Nagorno Karabagh, for in that act it will destroy the very thing that Armenia is fighting to defend.

Militarily, Armenia must thus concentrate on the in-depth defense of Nagorno Karabagh, and on making any planned attack by Azerbaijan be as costly to Azerbaijan as possible (militarily, politicaly, and economically) and as uncertain in its outcome as possible. Unless Azerbaijan changes in a major way, such a strategy is really just a delaying tactic and is economically, socially, and probably also militarily unsustainable in the very long term - so Armenia must also engage with international partners so that Azerbaijan's ability to act is severely restrained and that it is made even more costly, economically and diplomatically, for Azerbaijan to act with military force. Armenia must also start to make it clear to the world what the inevitable end result of successful Azerbaijani aggression will be (the anihalation of the entire population of NK, and the destruction of all Armenian cultural monuments within its territory). It thus becomes an issue of human rights and democracy versus genocide.

Unfortunately, such tactics are not compatible with close association with a totalitarian state like Russia, or in an Armenia where extremist and racist voices are given credibilityat the highest levels, where the same international values that will make it an issue of human rights and democracy versus genocide are dismissed as being "un Armenian", where there are 3000-year-civilisation fantasists who claim Armenia can never be defeated and that 1 Armenian soldier is worth 10 Azeri ones, and where the social structure of the country is backward and repressive and in a state of disfunctional collapse.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Even if military capabilites were equal, Armenia can never inflict a conclusive defeat over Azerbaijan because Armenian forces can never penetrate into Azerbaijan in depth as far as Baku.
Azerbaijan, however, IS capable of inflicting a conclusive defeat over Armenia because all it need do is capture the majority of Nagorno Karabagh, for in that act it will destroy the very thing that Armenia is fighting to defend.

Not sure if I totally agree with you.
I would go as far as to state it would be a massive miscalculation and a blunder by Sultan Aliev if he accepted your optimistic outlook for him.

It is understood that the initiative would be with Azerbaijan to start with.
They may have some gains with the advantage of the surprise.

The most critical and historic decision on the part of Armenia would be whether it would counter attack and an all out war,
or be restrained by its judgement as well as outside powers.

In any event I consider the Achilles heel of Azerbaijan not (in) Baku but within easy reach of the Armenian forces and
I have in mind,

1. Mingachur Reservoir with its hydroelectric station as well as the outflow control of the dam.
Major damage to this would divide Azerbaijan into two and create massive ecological disaster zone.

2. The city of Kantzak, its infrastructure would be vulnerable to interruption which would contribute to the mass generation of refugees.

3. The BTC pipeline, destruction and/or control of its operation.

If Armenia reciprocated Azerbaijani aggression with these targets, forward troops would be deprived of logistic support and would become venerable.


If you think this is bullsh.it let me remind you that the Mingechur scenario was aired by both, the Armenian side as a threat as well as Sultan Aliev as a concern.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Not sure if I totally agree with you.
I would go as far as to state it would be a massive miscalculation and a blunder by Sultan Aliev if he accepted your optimistic outlook for him.

It is understood that the initiative would be with Azerbaijan to start with.
They may have some gains with the advantage of the surprise.

The most critical and historic decision on the part of Armenia would be whether it would counter attack and an all out war,
or be restrained by its judgement as well as outside powers.

In any event I consider the Achilles heel of Azerbaijan not (in) Baku but within easy reach of the Armenian forces and
I have in mind,

1. Mingachur Reservoir with its hydroelectric station as well as the outflow control of the dam.
Major damage to this would divide Azerbaijan into two and create massive ecological disaster zone.

2. The city of Kantzak, its infrastructure would be vulnerable to interruption which would contribute to the mass generation of refugees.

3. The BTC pipeline, destruction and/or control of its operation.

If Armenia reciprocated Azerbaijani aggression with these targets, forward troops would be deprived of logistic support and would become venerable.

The above, and similar, is what I meant when I said "making any planned attack by Azerbaijan be as costly to Azerbaijan as possible (militarily, politicaly, and economically)". And if some of these potentual targets are partly foreign owned, then that would act as an additional pressure to restrain Azerbaijan.

But it is still, in the end, only a delaying tactic. Azerbaijan may ultimately decide that the destruction of those sort of economic targets in Azerbaijan is the price it iswilling to pay while making an attack it believes will be successful. It is not as if Azerbaijan already cares that much for the suffering of its own population. And, of course, for the deterrent to be effective, Azerbaijan has to believe that Armenia WILL try to target such places during an Azeri offensive, and believe that Armenia is capable of doing it fairly successfully.

[bell-the-cat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It thus becomes an issue of human rights and democracy versus genocide.

And bypasses the current stalemate on the issue of self-determination versus territorial integrity.

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It is a pity that such commonsense does not match your deleted "3000-year-civilisation" post.

Even if military capabilites were equal, Armenia can never inflict a conclusive defeat over Azerbaijan because Armenian forces can never penetrate into Azerbaijan in depth as far as Baku.
Azerbaijan, however, IS capable of inflicting a conclusive defeat over Armenia because all it need do is capture the majority of Nagorno Karabagh, for in that act it will destroy the very thing that Armenia is fighting to defend.

Who said anything about marching to Baku you dum dum......any pre-emptive strike would be to secure and to establish a better defensive positions from the Azeri weapons range to NKR cities and villages.
Also If Azerbaijan attacks Armenia as well as NKR then Armenia doesn't need a conclusive defeat of Azerbaijan but could liberate her own eastern lands, circle Georgia and establish a border with Russia (or as I suggest, pre-empt, why wait). This by itself will make Baku suffer and we hope in time different minorities will rise for their freedom and liberty which we Armenians can support covertly.

Militarily, Armenia must thus concentrate on the in-depth defense of Nagorno Karabagh, and on making any planned attack by Azerbaijan be as costly to Azerbaijan as possible (militarily, politicaly, and economically) and as uncertain in its outcome as possible. Unless Azerbaijan changes in a major way, such a strategy is really just a delaying tactic and is economically, socially, and probably also militarily unsustainable in the very long term - so Armenia must also engage with international partners so that Azerbaijan's ability to act is severely restrained and that it is made even more costly, economically and diplomatically, for Azerbaijan to act with military force. Armenia must also start to make it clear to the world what the inevitable end result of successful Azerbaijani aggression will be (the anihalation of the entire population of NK, and the destruction of all Armenian cultural monuments within its territory). It thus becomes an issue of human rights and democracy versus genocide.

Unfortunately, such tactics are not compatible with close association with a totalitarian state like Russia,

You answered your own question there dum dum.....nobody cares Genocide or human rights, lots of foam but no beer in those associations and groups.
my pony my rifle and me

or in an Armenia where extremist and racist voices are given credibilityat the highest levels, where the same international values that will make it an issue of human rights and democracy versus genocide are dismissed as being "un Armenian", where there are 3000-year-civilisation fantasists who claim Armenia can never be defeated and that 1 Armenian soldier is worth 10 Azeri ones, and where the social structure of the country is backward and repressive and in a state of disfunctional collapse.

Armenian and NKR soldiers and special forces are much better trained and more determined than Azeris who want to fight an uphill battle soon find out war is no game.

Cat you don't belong in this thread....scatt.

Armchair general Jingle Bells

[burjuin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Armenian Peacekeepers