Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Damn it this is unacceptable......Russia or not
we must at least setup a defense parameter around the crash site and recover the bodies and the wreckage. If they start shooting we shoot back harder.

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan: Where Does Russia Stand on Helicopter Shoot-Down?

November 18, 2014 - 12:25pm

In Ukraine, Russia is widely seen as a troublemaker intent on destabilizing the government in Kyiv. But when it comes to Nagorno-Karabakh, the longest current conflict in the Caucasus, the Kremlin is expected to act as a force for restraint.

In the wake of a helicopter shoot-down incident on November 12, the Karabakh conflict finds itself at a crossroads, in which the potential for a return to full-scale warfare seems higher than at any point since the signing of a 1994 ceasefire. Azerbaijani forces downed the Armenian helicopter near the ceasefire line of contact, where both countries’ armed forces remain on high alert, and where gunfire exchanges regularly occur.

A widely held belief among Azerbaijani policymakers and political analysts is that Russia will be an important, perhaps even decisive, factor in what happens next. They note that Moscow is Armenia’s chief strategic ally and economic patron.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of Baku’s Atlas Research Center, is among those who think the Kremlin will exert a moderating influence on the Armenian government. “Perhaps Armenia will want to respond to this incident. However, the final decision will be up to Moscow, as always,” Shahinoglu predicted.

With the Kremlin embroiled in the Ukrainian conflict, and with Western sanctions taking a steep toll on the Russian economy, it is likely President Vladimir Putin wants relative calm in the Caucasus, experts in Baku believe. “Considering the challenges Moscow is facing in Ukraine and tensions with the West, I do not expect Moscow will want to open a new front here, too,” Shahinoglu said.

Arastun Orujlu, director of the East-West Research Center, said Russia’s geopolitical interest in the Caucasus is the maintenance of the status quo, i.e. a “frozen conflict” in which neither side had the upper hand in Karabakh. “Russia sees frozen conflicts as the main support for its existence in the region,” Orujlu said.

Azerbaijani officials remain defiant and unapologetic over the shoot-down, in which the three-man Armenian air crew died. Casting the incident as an act of self-defense, the Azerbaijani high command awarded a medal to the officer who ordered the attack. Baku maintains the helicopter was probing Azerbaijani defenses along the frontline, while Armenian officials insist it was on a routine training mission.

“Azerbaijan only wanted to let Armenia know that they should respect our borders,” commented Uzeyir Jafarov, a military affairs journalist. Jafarov pointed out that two Armenian helicopters were probing the frontline on November 12, and that if Azerbaijani forces were intent on provoking the revival of a full-scale conflict, they would have downed the second helicopter.

Some experts suggested the incident is connected to a desire by some officials in Baku to test Moscow’s mood. Azerbaijan and Russia have long had a prickly relationship: not only has Moscow’s special relationship with Yerevan been a source of tension in Baku, but Russia and Azerbaijan have also wrangled over energy export-related issues, including competing pipeline routes.

The Euromaidan upheaval in Ukraine, however, has brought Russia and Azerbaijan closer together. Seeking to keep the Euromaidan spirit from seeping into their own countries, both Moscow and Baku have carried out far-reaching crackdowns on all forms of free expression this year. And these days, international observers see Putin’s administration as philosophically simpatico with President Ilham Aliyev’s government in Baku.

Orujlu is among those who wonder whether the shoot-down was Baku’s way of gauging Moscow’s true feelings toward Baku. “It might be a little intelligence operation by Azerbaijan, seeking to find out the reaction of Russia [to such actions], given that Moscow has challenges in Ukraine and a closer relationship [now] with Azerbaijan,” Orujlu said.

Ultimately, no matter what happens in Moscow, Azerbaijan is ready for any contingency, said Shahinoglu. “If Armenia decides to respond, Azerbaijan will not step back and it will lead to a new war,” Shahinoglu said.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/70981

[Chubs]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Damn it this is unacceptable......Russia or not
we must at least setup a defense parameter around the crash site and recover the bodies and the wreckage. If they start shooting we shoot back harder.

Thats how you start a war. The crash site is 200 meters away from Azeri lines, its almost smack dab in the middle. The helicopters cut across neutral territory to the other side of the Armenian trench. Gokorik, it was a typo. I think they meant to put 200 meters rather than 20 meters. Based off what we see in the video, the helicopter exploded, after its hull was hit. Then, the wreckage continued to move forward, and drift to the right. In order to actually know where it landed, we would have to estimate how many meters the wreckage covered when it was shot down.

A military solution is not an option to this Eddo, it will end in a war. They need to send OSCE reps to investigate. If Azerbaijan refuses again, Armenia requests the presence of a group of Russian peacekeepers to escort the representatives to the crash site, while Armenian troops leave their positions in on the frontline for the time being. Azerbaijan refused access to the crash site, because they "could not guarantee their safety" similar to when Azerbaijan "could not guarantee" the safety of Garry Kasporov, when he wanted to return to Azerbaijan.
My friend sent this to me as well (Hes not exactly an artist lol):

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Good info Chubs.
we can officially announce our intentions to Azeris that this is only a recovery operation, do not fire.......and if not, like Haykakan said, we ARE at war and the seize fire is bolony.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

...... If Azerbaijan refuses again, Armenia requests the presence of a group of Russian peacekeepers to escort the representatives to the crash site, while Armenian troops leave their positions in on the frontline for the time being....

Peace keepers have to be excluded.

Peacekeepers can only function subject to an agreement of both parties.
Clearly the Azeri do not have an incentive to such an agreement.

Peacekeepers could also be the thin end of the wedge for Russians to enter Karabagh territory.
This is something the Russians want but the Armenians have always resisted.

Also once peacekeepers are in very difficult to get them out. There will be a precedence.
If you look around world conflicts you will see what I mean.

Our policy has always been we can look after our borders.
It may be difficult and costly but will pay dividends in the long run.

.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Really londontsi..you think Armenia can look after her borders herself? I can see the turks to our west just shiverring at the sight of our border gaurds

[Mher]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Artsakh Forces Take Control of Helicopter Crash Site


STEPANAKERT—The crash site of an unarmed Mi-24 helicopter downed by Azerbaijan last week, which resulted in the death of three Armenian servicemen, is under the permanent control of Armenian troops, Artsakh’s Ministry of Defense reported Friday.

The crash site has been under heavy fire from the Azerbaijani side since the helicopter was downed on Nov. 12, making it impossible for Armenian workers to reach the site and retrieve the bodies of the three servicemen on board, who are presumed dead.

“The adversary used weapons of different caliber, including grenades, as it violated the truce about 190 times the night of November 21,” a statement from Artsakh’s Defense Ministry said.

The statement added that Artsakh troops have taken all necessary measures to protect the crash site and the surrounding frontline area.

On Wednesday, Nov. 12, an unarmed Mi-24 helicopter belonging to the Artsakh Air Force was shot down by the Azerbaijani armed forces while conducting an exercise flight. The Commander of the staff was the Major Sergey Sahakyan, accompanied by Senior Lieutenant Sarkis Nazaryan and Lieutenant Azat Sahakyan.

http://asbarez.com/129133/artsakh-forces-take-control-of-helicopter-crash-site/

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Really londontsi..you think Armenia can look after her borders herself? I can see the turks to our west just shiverring at the sight of our border gaurds

I am not a lawyer.
It was not written with the accuracy of what would be expected of a lawyer.

Armenia / Karabagh borders with Azerbaijan are looked after by our army without any help.
It is the result of our policy and we have been carrying it out successfully.
Also remember Azerbaijan is twice Armenia’s size, three times our population and ten times our income if not more.

There are many countries that cannot defend themselves from their neighbour, so what.

I guess your expectation would be satisfied only if we were the strongest country in the world !!

.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Artsakh Forces Take Control of Helicopter Crash Site


STEPANAKERT—The crash site of an unarmed Mi-24 helicopter downed by Azerbaijan last week, which resulted in the death of three Armenian servicemen, is under the permanent control of Armenian troops, Artsakh’s Ministry of Defense reported Friday.

The crash site has been under heavy fire from the Azerbaijani side since the helicopter was downed on Nov. 12, making it impossible for Armenian workers to reach the site and retrieve the bodies of the three servicemen on board, who are presumed dead.

“The adversary used weapons of different caliber, including grenades, as it violated the truce about 190 times the night of November 21,” a statement from Artsakh’s Defense Ministry said.

The statement added that Artsakh troops have taken all necessary measures to protect the crash site and the surrounding frontline area.

On Wednesday, Nov. 12, an unarmed Mi-24 helicopter belonging to the Artsakh Air Force was shot down by the Azerbaijani armed forces while conducting an exercise flight. The Commander of the staff was the Major Sergey Sahakyan, accompanied by Senior Lieutenant Sarkis Nazaryan and Lieutenant Azat Sahakyan.



http://asbarez.com/129133/artsakh-fo...er-crash-site/

I hope they do not budge an inch from those new positions.
.

[Haykakan]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I am not a lawyer.
It was not written with the accuracy of what would be expected of a lawyer.

Armenia / Karabagh borders with Azerbaijan are looked after by our army without any help.
It is the result of our policy and we have been carrying it out successfully.
Also remember Azerbaijan is twice Armenia’s size, three times our population and ten times our income if not more.

There are many countries that cannot defend themselves from their neighbour, so what.

I guess your expectation would be satisfied only if we were the strongest country in the world !!

.

I am sure you understand the situation for what it is but the problem is that many people including some here forget our main problem and declare victory (sort of kind of) over their own version of the real problem which of course has no basis in reality. There is nothing wrong with celebrating victories (even small ones) but there is something very wrong with losing sight of the bigger issues.