Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[RSNATION]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Sometimes my frustrations regarding Armenia and Armenians overtake me. I am glad you disagree with me on this matter, and I greatly respect you for it. For most of my adult life I also thought and felt like you. My observations during the last several years, however, began to change my mind somewhat regarding our self rule; and Levon Petrosian's bloody fiasco early this year basically confirmed what I had already strongly suspected, namely that we Armenians (in our current state) are not able to effectively/efficiently govern ourselves in a very complex and volatile geopolitical region like the Caucasus. In short, I'm tired of Armenia's poverty, I'm tired of Armenia's lack of longterm security, I am tired of Armenia's petty yet serious internal disputes, I am tired of facing multitudes of hungry wolves in our nasty neighborhood all by ourselves... We might find our security, peace, stability and prosperity in some form of a union with the Russian Federation, perhaps in a confederation with them. I'm still a staunch nationalist, but I guess with a twist... Believe me, I am depressed that I feel this way. In my opinion, the next ten-twenty years will be crucial/pivotal for Armenia. If we can't have a serious breakthrough, if we continue remaining in our obscure and endangered position, I would theoretically support some form of a union with the Russian Federation. I rather be a part of the Russian Federation than continue being a tiny, landlocked, endangered, impoverished, third world state constantly seeking handouts and help... I hope I am wrong but ազատ անկախ և միացյալ Հայաստան sounds good and exciting but it may not become a realty for us in the foreseeable future. I guess my personal take on this matter comes from many years of dealing with self-hating and/or ignorant Armenians, taking into serious concideration the xxxxed-up geopolitical situation of world in general and the Caucasus region in particular, taking into concideration our wonderful neighbors, the severe lack of national assets, etc... But I have not given up yet. Like I said, the next ten-twenty years will be revealing.

Sound reasoning and should certainly be a contingency plan for Armenia if all else fails.

[truAnatolian]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Can anyone give me more Information on the K-3!!?!

I know we have great anti-air defense (s-300 etc.) but what is our arms production and Air force like?

[Armenian]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Sound reasoning and should certainly be a contingency plan for Armenia if all else fails.

I want a free, independent and united Armenia. But Armenia's sociopolitical and economic circumstances coupled with our demographics, landlocked geography, volatile geopolitics, lack of national assets, bad neighborhood, etc., are proving to be serious obstacles. I have no doubt Armenia will somehow survive through this situation. But how it will survive is the real question? Basing my perception on the current and foreseeable nature of global politics, Armenia will continue being desperately dependent on Russia for survival. Barring some serious political breakthrough in the region, Armenia will also continue to be surrounded by dubious friends and bloodthirsty enemies. Armenia will also continue to have a tiny economy with a tiny population living in a tiny, barren, landlocked nation. Armenia will continue to be impoverished, constantly seeking financial and political help from abroad. I don't want Armenia to become a Third World nation or a failed state.

If within a generation or two we can't get our act together, if regional politics does not simmer down and allow for serious longterm development, then I would want to see Armenia join some form of a union with the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation is poised today to become the 21st century's most powerful and the most wealthy political entity. As an Armenian I want to be a part of that, I want a piece of it. We are already sorely dependent on them now, why not take the next step? At the very least we wont have to worry about our security or economy. Being an integral part of a large empire, or heavily dependent on one, has been our national fate for thousands of years. For most of our record history Armenia has been dependent on or subject to one great empire or another. What makes us think it will be different now or in the future? A new Tigran the Great or Ashot Yerkat or Arshak or Levon or Hetum or Mamikonian Sparapets are no where in sight...

Those who foolishly say what about our culture, wouldn't being too close to Russia "Russify" our culture? Well, have other Caucasian peoples like the Dagestanis, Ossetians, Abkhazians, Chechens become Russified? And why is Russian influence in Armenia or amongst Armenians necesssarily a bad thing? Have you seen or felt the amount Islamic/Turkic/Arabic/Iranian crap that exists in our popular culture? Have you see how much Western crap has crept into Armenian society recently? I would much prefer having a strong Russian flavor in Armenia than the kind of popular culture we could potential have as a tiny and poor nation in a sea of Muslims. Besides which, everything we are proud about in modern Armenian culture is directionally or indirectly associated with some form of Russian influence. So, the catchphrase "Russification" is no longer a bad word for me.

[truAnatolian]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Well we have a greater amount of land than Israel, more water and aribale land and more natural resources though not much. Being landlocked is a huge issue however, but it will decrease if we can acheive open borders. Armenia needs to develop industry and lots of it, this will bring in cash flow, investment, create jobs etc. The reason it is not feasible now is because the cost of exporting any products would be way to high considering the quickest land routes to the largest consuming markets (europe and north america) are closed. Also, if we open those borders we can export gas from iran to Europe or Russia, they would much rather have us do it than Turkey.

I feel your frustration Armenian. How long must our people be petty and reliant on others for handouts. I want an Armenia were kids laugh and sing and play in prosperity and happiness.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I don't think this would be a good idea because Russian - Azeri relations are not bad (as compared to Russian - Georgian relations leading up to he war).

In short, Russia really had no option but to take S. Ossetia's side 100% because Georgia was 100% anti-Russian. With that said, you have to factor in that Russia could strike a deal with Azerbaijan that would be against Armenian interests...especially since Azerbaijan has oil and gas.
In short, the only way it would be a good idea to have Rusiian peacekeepers in Artsakh is if Azerbaijan becomes as anti-Russian as Georgia is/was.

Your worries are unnecesary.

Russia has been a large power for a few centuries. Like other imperial powers, they plan long term rather than short term. They will not make short term alliances for immediate gains at the expense of long term allies.

The question is: who can be closer to Russia long term? Armenia or Azerbaijan?

Azeris are muslim and they feel closer to Turkey. After the break up of the Soviet Union, they switched from Cyrilic alphabet to latin (like Turkey). Their army switched from Soviet/Russian style training/tactics and marching to Turkish style. Their aspirations are towards pan-turanism. They hate the Russians, they want nothing to do with them. They blame them for loosing the NK conflict etc. etc. etc.

We are Christians, we look more towards Russia. Our children in Armenia all learn the Russian language at school (it is the second language in Armenia). Many of our military officers are currently being trained in Russia. Our army still marches on parade the old Soviet/Russian way. We host Russian bases in our country etc. etc.

In Russian media, Armenia is often referred to as "our only ally in the Caucasus".

The Russian leadership knows that we are their long term allies and they do not trust the Turkoid bunch in Baku. They will do business with them and always try to bring them under their zone of influence. But it will not be at our expense.

Only a foolish Russian leadership will sell their long term ally for short term gains. The present heads in the Kremlin (Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, Ivanov,etc) are far from foolish and I bet their future generation of leaders will be no less wise and pragmatic.

Edit: And by the way, Arabs have lots of oil too, but I doubt the Israelis are loosing their sleep over the possibility of the USA selling them one day and becoming the friends of Arabs...

[truAnatolian]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Very insightful Zoravar. You are beggining to change my views of the Russians. I guess my issue is that I wish we didn't need them so much, and those skin-heads get to me.

Afterall even the Ottoman sultans called us the "Millet-I-Sadika" (loyal people). Russia would be foolish to turn their back on us. They should know that if they invest in our economy and education we can have more Mikoyans, lavrovs, khachaturians to share with them.

[ZORAVAR]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Sometimes my frustrations regarding Armenia and Armenians overtake me. I am glad you disagree with me on this matter, and I greatly respect you for it. For most of my adult life I also thought and felt like you. My observations during the last several years, however, began to change my mind somewhat regarding our self rule; and Levon Petrosian's bloody fiasco early this year basically confirmed what I had already strongly suspected, namely that we Armenians (in our current state) are not able to effectively/efficiently govern ourselves in a very complex and volatile geopolitical region like the Caucasus. In short, I'm tired of Armenia's poverty, I'm tired of Armenia's lack of longterm security, I am tired of Armenia's petty yet serious internal disputes, I am tired of facing multitudes of hungry wolves in our nasty neighborhood all by ourselves... We might find our security, peace, stability and prosperity in some form of a union with the Russian Federation, perhaps in a confederation with them. I'm still a staunch nationalist, but I guess with a twist... Believe me, I am depressed that I feel this way. In my opinion, the next ten-twenty years will be crucial/pivotal for Armenia. If we can't have a serious breakthrough, if we continue remaining in our obscure and endangered position, I would theoretically support some form of a union with the Russian Federation. I rather be a part of the Russian Federation than continue being a tiny, landlocked, endangered, impoverished, third world state constantly seeking handouts and help... I hope I am wrong but ազատ անկախ և միացյալ Հայաստան sounds good and exciting but it may not become a realty for us in the foreseeable future. I guess my personal take on this matter comes from many years of dealing with self-hating and/or ignorant Armenians, taking into serious concideration the xxxxed-up geopolitical situation of world in general and the Caucasus region in particular, taking into concideration our wonderful neighbors, the severe lack of national assets, etc... But I have not given up yet. Like I said, the next ten-twenty years will be revealing.

I agree with your points.

I also sometimes ask myself if we should join some sort of a Union state/Federation/Confederation with Russia. We would obviously be better off securitywise and economically with little loss in our independence (more about that later).

But, would Russia be interested in all that? They are not the Soviet Union and are not interested in exporting communist ideology. Territorial gain is not a priority for them (they have enough). Of course, they would gain geopolitically but, they will have to support and subsidize a poorer nation. I believe they probably would not be interested in incorporating us into the Russian Federation, but an economic union coupled with a military alliance is something they would probably not mind...

We will have to use a common currency (Roubles rather than Drams), have a customs free trade policy with them and our soldiers will have to wear the same boots as theirs. Naturally, they will largely control our economy and our foreign policy (which they are already do to a significant extent). The pursuit of Hay tad and Genocide case will have to be done by our diaspora almost in solo.

In response to our more emotional countrymen who love slogans like : Azad yev angakh Hayastan... Mah gam azadoutioun etc. etc. Those are indeed exciting and heart-warming. But let us ask ourselves the following questions:
Are we really free and independent now?
Can we do whatever we like and not take into consideration other powers, neighbours etc. ?
Are small nations like Armenia, Lebanon, Serbia, Panama, Qatar, Georgia and others free and independent?
Are even medium sized countries like Iran, Korea (N & S), Egypt, Mexico free to do whatever they want?
Are economic power houses like Germany and Japan truly following an independant path?
Do the countries of the European Union have their own currencies?

Let us wake up and accept that our independance is mostly on paper and that a lot of our domestic and foreign related decisions are made under the influence and pressure of others. Let us not kid ourselves.

There is nothing that I would like to have more than a strong Hayrenik, and I will be the last person to give up or capitulate. Since independence, we did amazingly well despite all odds. But, given the current geopolitical situation, we should not drift away from our Slavic neighbours. On the contrary, we should try to be as close as possible to them. We have to do our best to become stronger economically, politically and militarily...and also must have a plan, an ace, a solution or a way out in case things don't work out the way we would like them to be.

[gmd]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

... I would theoretically support some form of a union with the Russian Federation. I rather be a part of the Russian Federation than continue being a tiny, landlocked, endangered, impoverished, third world state constantly seeking handouts and help... I hope I am wrong but ազատ անկախ և միացյալ Հայաստան sounds good and exciting but it may not become a realty for us in the foreseeable future. I guess my personal take on this matter comes from many years of dealing with self-hating and/or ignorant Armenians, taking into serious concideration the xxxxed-up geopolitical situation of world in general and the Caucasus region in particular, taking into concideration our wonderful neighbors, the severe lack of national assets, etc... But I have not given up yet. Like I said, the next ten-twenty years will be revealing.

I understand how this would help address the security issue for Armenia, but what guarentee would we have of financial prosperity or a rise out of obscurity? If anything such a union would remove Armenia from the world stage as an independent state. Since, Armenia's physical location would not change we would still be land-locked and dependent on our neighbors for transit of goods from Russia. Additionally, would we not risk Russia deciding our borders without any direct say? Especially as it pertains to Artsak? I guess my question is if this proposal is based on an analysis that accepts no significant improvement in Armenia (economically or politically). An additional concern should be further demographic decline in Armenia if all Armenians are Russian citizens and free to travel and work anywhere in Russia. Would this not create a situation where Armenia is even more insignificant then now?

[gmd]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But, would Russia be interested in all that? They are not the Soviet Union and are not interested in exporting communist ideology. Territorial gain is not a priority for them (they have enough). Of course, they would gain geopolitically but, they will have to support and subsidize a poorer nation. I believe they probably would not be interested in incorporating us into the Russian Federation, but an economic union coupled with a military alliance is something they would probably not mind...

I think you raise a good point. If anything isn't a nation better off in today's climate with more "friends"? I keep thinking of the US with its "coallition of the willing".

[Armenian]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But, would Russia be interested in all that? They are not the Soviet Union and are not interested in exporting communist ideology. Territorial gain is not a priority for them (they have enough). Of course, they would gain geopolitically but, they will have to support and subsidize a poorer nation. I believe they probably would not be interested in incorporating us into the Russian Federation, but an economic union coupled with a military alliance is something they would probably not mind...

Very valid point. However, it depends on how one packages the offer. In my opinion, if a high ranking Armenian delegation went to Moscow to make such an offer they may agree. It's common knowledge that the Caucasus holds great military, political and economic significance for Russia. Russia is already effectively seeking to expand into the southern Caucasus for obvious geopolitical reasons. Isn't it why they seek our alliance in the first place? Isn't it why they are looking to buy up our entire country? Isn't it why they beat up on Georgia? Isn't it why they are keeping Azerbaijan at bay? If God forbid we were in a position where we could no longer maintain our republic, why wouldn't they take advantage of the situation and move their borders a bit south? Living in the volatile Caucasus, I think this should be a serious contingency plan for us.

We will have to use a common currency (Roubles rather than Drams), have a customs free trade policy with them and our soldiers will have to wear the same boots as theirs. Naturally, they will largely control our economy and our foreign policy (which they are already do to a significant extent). The pursuit of Hay tad and Genocide case will have to be done by our diaspora almost in solo.

Ruble vs Dram? I'll take the Ruble. I'm a pragmatist and a realist, not a romantic. Our soldiers already wear the same boots as Russians, and Russians already serve in Armenia. Like you said, they already control our economy to a great extent. And don't automatically assume that the Armenian Genocide will be automatically abandoned by Moscow. Wasn't it Moscow that built the Genocide memorial at Tsitsernakaberd in the mid-1960s? Wasn't it Moscow that armed and funded the ASALA in the mid 1970s? Wasn't it Moscow that officially recognized the Armenian Genocide in the mid-1990s? Obviously these actions were taken by Moscow for sound geopolitical reasons and not for moral reasons. The Turkish state is still a major competitor and a potential regional threat for Russia. The Armenian Genocide has inherent geopolitical ramifications that would interest longterm planner in the Kremlin. The bottom line is, we Armenians need a strong presence in Russia, the Kremlin in particular, making the case for us. Instead of foolishly complaining about Russians and their control over us, we need to penetrate the different layers of their society for our benefit, we need to engage them on all levels.

There is nothing that I would like to have more than a strong Hayrenik, and I will be the last person to give up or capitulate. Since independence, we did amazingly well despite all odds. But, given the current geopolitical situation, we should not drift away from our Slavic neighbours. On the contrary, we should try to be as close as possible to them. We have to do our best to become stronger economically, politically and militarily...and also must have a plan, an ace, a solution or a way out in case things don't work out the way we would like them to be.

I fully agree.