Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[AR MENIA]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

ARF DASHNAKTSUTYUN CONCERNED ABOUT PANIC


“The Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutyun is convinced that if the war resumes Armenia will not only preserve the liberated territories but also establish land and water borders with its northern neighbour Russia,” ARFD member and Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly Hrair Karapetyan told a press conference today.

“If tomorrow Azerbaijan wages a war, it will face problems regarding the seven liberated territories and its territorial integrity, in general, problems which the country would not even dream of. They also fear that Armenia might have land borders with its northern neighbour one day. No matter how much they double their budget, they cannot leave Armenia behind, I assure you,” said Hrair Karapetyan.

According to the ARF Dashnaktsutyun member all generals of CIS countries have noticed the fighting capacity of our army. Unlike Aliyev, Serzh Sargsyan is “a modest and decent person,” therefore he never speaks about our army or makes militaristic announcements.

“Azerbaijan’s army is in a grave psychological state today. Everybody knows that their army is not organised and is undisciplined.”

“The Azerbaijani army is not a bit stronger. Our army is effective, and if Azerbaijan launches a war, it should be mindful that this time Armenia may advance so as to set up land communication with Russia,” reiterated Hrair Karapetyan who was much concerned over the panic in Armenia.

Hrair Karapetyan tried to dispel the rumours about “concession” policy on the settlement of the Karabakh issue.

“The panic has a bad impact on the psychological state of the society and instills a defensive mood. The peaceful resolution of the Conflict is not exhausted until the negotiations are underway. The recent Georgian-Ossetian conflict proved that aggressors lose in the given international situation

This just makes me feel good and proud, thanks for sharing Crusader.

@ Armenian

Speaking out of the experience we have had with turks, we can conclude that handing over the bufferzones is not gonna satisfy their needs. turks are turks, if they feel and see we are getting weaker, they surely will try to invade Artsakh by backing up their agression by using misleading propaganda.

On the other hand, like i outlined earlier, are the bufferzones worth risking all of Artsakh and even Armenia? And even if we won and keeped the bufferzones, look at all the damage we would face. While we would be having hard times dealing with the damage the war created, neighbouring nations will get stronger and develop which in the end is also catastrophical for Armenia and Artsakh because our nation lies in a region where it is surrounded by enemies. I trully think it's the worst region to have a nation, especially when the nation is called Armenia.

Another option would be, drop the bufferzones for now in order not to fight a full scale war with the azeries at the moment. Focusing our attention on Javakh for the next 5 - 10 years. Georgia is weak now, the people in Javakh can easily gain their independance, it would not take us as much effort as fighting the azeries. Besides that, Javakh has much more significance for Armenia then the bufferzones in question. Another fact is that over 5 - 10 years the majority of the azeri oil would be exploited. I've heard that the azery economy is mainly based on the export of azery petrol. After regaining Javakh we could again focus our attention on the azeries. I think the Armenian side would have better chances in succeeding over 10 years then now if our politicians would be making the right decisions.

• Over 10 years the majority of azery petrol has been sold, the azery petrol is keeping their economy alive, how will they maintain their army over 10 years?

• Armenia is united with Artsakh, according to this option Armenia would also be united with Javakh, there are lots of positif points that will come with the unification of Armenia, Artsakh and Javakh

• If Armenian politicians guarantee the diasporian Armenians that when they move to Armenia a job will waiting there for them

• If any Armenian gets more children then lets say 4, they will be rewarded with money, how more children, the more money they will get

Knowing the nature of the turk, they can try to invade Artsakh when we would be busy with Javakh...

As you see, i myself am struggling with a clear answer to this particular question, i really don't know what the best option for us would be.

[truAnatolian]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I think we can leave it to the Javakh armenians to join Armenia, but both our diaspora and State have to invest in Armenian churches and Schools in Javakh. With the armenian spirit rekindled they will gravitate towards armenia without us having to take any outward action that would upset the Georgian leadership. Ofocurse these schools could work under the guise of teaching both Armenian and Georgian languages to better help 'integrate' javakhtsi's into Georgia.

Is it true that the Turks and Azeri's, with their georgian lapdog friend Sakashvilli wants to repopulate Javakh with Turks? I've heard this before somewhere, I Can't remember where exactly but I don't know if its just talk or if its actively being implemented?

Jobs will help keep hyastancis in Hyastan, but they will need to get rid of corruption and increase living standards if diasporans are to return en masse. Personally I would LOVE to see Oskanian take presidency, he is well versed in several languages, western-educated, a master of foreign policy and above all a repatriated diasporan which shows that his love is for the country not for the power. Any thoughts on that?

[Armanen]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I am suspicious of oskanyan especially after he created his ngo and has a joo and georgian on it. Also, he is given too much credit for Armenia's foreign policy, and too little accountability for not taking a more aggressive stand on some issues, such as the destruction of the Khatchkars in Julfa.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Here's more on the new Miatsum movement from Hetq. There is a disturbing allegation at the end of this piece.

*Note - Karvachar = Kelbajar = Nor Shahumyan*
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“I Will Not Surrender the Holy Sites of Our Nation” – Declares Karavatchar Resident

Shushanik Stepanyan November 03, 2008

“Today I own a house in Karavatchar, in the liberated territories. There I have a library of over two thousand Armenological books. I have friends who are buried there and I have a family. Let me say to anyone who is contemplating any type of concessions that I will never surrender my home, my mountains and my monasteries, which number in the hundreds and are omnipresent. I will not surrender the holy sites of our nation and will not depart the lands that I now consider to be my home. Anyone even entertaining such notions should ‘forget it’”, declared Aleksander Kananyan who moved to the Karavatchar region in Karabakh in 2001.

Mr. Kananyan has never belonged to any organization but news circulating regarding an impending settlement of the Karabakh question based on the ‘Madrid Principles’ and the concomitant silence of political officials has compelled him to found the “Miatsum” (Unification) Initiative along with others who share his views. Members of the newly-created organization include Jirayr Sefilyan, who commanded a special military unit in Shushi, musical conductor Tigran Khzmalyan, National Assembly Deputy Zaruhi Postanjyan, public affairs commentator Hrant Ter-Aprahamyan, Seda Melikyan, Alek Yenikomoushyan and Grizelda Ghazaryan.

“Miatsum” is proposing a new variant regarding the settlement of the Karabakh question – uniting Karabakh with Armenia given that unification contradicts the political line that has been maintained since 1991; namely that Karabakh is a separate republic.

According to Mr. Sefilyan, during the conflict settlement process the tactical line to be followed is that Karabakh must be presented as one of Armenia’s Marzes (administrative regions), given that, “Karabakh is historical Armenian territory, the Armenian Army is stationed in Karabakh and Karabakh’s President, Bako Sahakyan, was never elected but rather selected by Yerevan.”

Given that Artsakh has become an established reality, Zaruhi Postanjyan believes that this reality must be assigned a legal guise, something that will also become a unification issue. Questions of the new format are based on one overriding principle that joins all; a comprehension of the concept of Armenia’s territorial totality.

According to Mr. A. Kananyan, as a result of surrendering any lands to Azerbaijan, not only is Armenia’s territorial undermined but also Armenia’s security since “all the liberated territories taken together form the minimum required to safeguard our nation’s regional economic vitality on the eastern front. Today, a large portion of Armenia’s wheat is grown on those territories. Thus, a retreat from even a few kilometers from one region of the liberated territories will bring about the collapse of our military-political apparatus. This event will in turn serve as a basis for the resumption of military operations by Azerbaijan.

Alek Yenikomoushyan added, “What protects us today is the spiritual victory of 1994. Our nations will spiritually die if the territories are surrendered.” Given all this, according to those who initiated the organization, the concept of unification is the most viable and the independence of Karabakh must be viewed as an interim state of affairs leading to this objective.

Jirayr Sefilyan, despite being a member of the Armenian National Congress, opposes the mutual concessions route held by Levon Ter-Petrosyan and believes that the liberated territories are not for sale. The policies implemented by the current regime, according to members of “Miatsum”, totally contradict the interests of the Armenian people and the negative manifestations of that political line are evident. Mr. Kananyan confirms that steps to resettle and retain the liberated territories are not being implemented. “The appalling truth is that this is the first year since 1994 when, on this internal piece of land that stretches from the banks of the Arax River in the south to the Mrav mountain range in the north, not a single house has been built; something that is very disquieting.”

According to Mr. Kananyan, as proof of the concessionist intentions of the ruling regime one can cite the example of the opening of the Meghri-Kapan roadway. “If there was no question of surrendering those territories the same road from Meghri could have been taken on till Mijnavan and from there, via Kubatli, to the entrance of Kapan. This way, the road all the way till Khntzoresk would have traveled through level pasturelands and much more convenient for automobile travel.”

To the above-mentioned facts Tigran Khzmalyan adds that in 2003 the population of Lachin and Karavatchar reached 12,000 but that today it has dropped to around 5,000. This raises the perplexing question – Who is responsible?

http://www.hetq.am/eng/politics/8510/

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

I posted this in the Armenia and the information war thread but I will post it here as well. The "azeri" information war and threat to our national security is so severe and urgent that even the Levonakan media is covering it. If Levonakans see it, then we must all wake up and see it as well. We are talking about giving [historic Armenian] lands (or buffer zones as some of you like to call it) to "azeris" and concessions and what not while they talk about "WESTERN AZERBAIJAN"!
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AZERI MINISTER COMES FROM NOYEMBERYAN

[12:19 pm] 03 November, 2008

After the October 1, 2008, Presidential election in Azerbaijan Shahin Mustafayev replaced Heydar Babayev on the position of Minister of Economic Development.

According to Day.az “the new minister was born in the region of Noyemberyan in Western Azerbaijan.”

Azeris have developed a bad habit of “appropriating and distorting their neighbour's history and culture.” The region of Noyemberyan belongs to Armenia from ancient times. Recently some spiritual and historic building on the frontier region have been captured by Azeris, among them the church of St. Sarkis built by Mesrop Mashtots.

Kamut TV, Noyemberyan

From http://www.a1plus.am/en/?page=issue&iid=65700

[meline]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[QUOTE=Federate;210030]I posted this in the Armenia and the information war thread but I will post it here as well. The "azeri" information war and threat to our national security is so severe and urgent that even the Levonakan media is covering it. If Levonakans see it, then we must all wake up and see it as well. We are talking about giving [historic Armenian] lands (or buffer zones as some of you like to call it) to "azeris" and concessions and what not while they talk about "WESTERN AZERBAIJAN"!
------------------------------------

Fully agree with you Federate. The very term buffer zones stinks, as for the rest, an article to this tune of baboon, stalin style propaganda

AZERIS INVENT NAME FOR THE OCCUPIED LANDS

According to SAMVEL KARAPETYAN, “There are no lands belonging to Azerbaijan.

If ours had managed to liberate the territories extending to the river Kour, the whole Armenian world would have been liberated. And beyond the river Kour, on the left-bank area, is the historical territory of the Caucasian Albania.

This year, the Azerbaijani statehood celebrated its 90th anniversary. We should have done the same too. They created a state on a territory seized in 1918 and gave it the name of another historical area (Atrpatakan). That is, they gave an invented name to the occupied lands. Azerbaijan speaks about territorial integrity, whereas its territories are entirely based upon our historical homeland.

http://www.armtown.com/news/en/has/20081101/302996093/

[Lucin]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Here's more on the new Miatsum movement from Hetq.

The presence of a not so balanced individual such as Sefilian discredits the credibilty of such a union.

Armenians just need to be wary and vigilant of the recent developpments. I really don't know if those rumours (spread everywhere in the Diaspora) which has created an atmopsphere of panic are true or not (I've even heard some jokes on the issue) but I don't agree with a cool, indifferent attitude either, like having total faith in our politicians... After so much noise, any breakthrough to the conflict in the near future seems highly unlikely to me.

[Armanen]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Thaw seems to have emerged in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation

Signing of the Declaration was accelerated by the «five-day» war of Georgia against South Ossetia. In spite of the burning desire of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Russia displayed complete unwillingness to resign from the Region.
The Moscow Declaration on political settlement the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict signed by the Presidents of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan once again awakened interest in the seemingly «frozen» conflict. In fact, we witnessed assertion of what we used to repeat for years – the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict must be resolved on the basis of principles and norms of the international law.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On the whole, there was nothing new in the Declaration, in spite of the numerous commentaries both from the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides. Notwithstanding the attempts of Official Baku to tilt the balance to her advantage by declaring that the right of territorial integrity stands higher than the right of a nation to self-determination, the Declaration contains no such clause. Azerbaijan insists on the priority of territorial integrity, while Armenia demands right of nations to self-determination. In other words Azerbaijan is determined to return the “occupied” territories, while Armenia requires independence of Nagorno Karabakh.

On this occasion it would be relevant to remind Press Secretary of Azerbaijani FM Khazar Ibrahim that in 1999 Istanbul Charter was adopted in which all the 10 principles of the Helsinki Final Act were equal, and, what is equally important, the Charter also contains the signature of Azerbaijan. Khazar Ibrahim can’t but know about it, and if it is so, he opposes his President…

But let us leave aside such trifles. For Armenia, and also for Azerbaijan one of the basic provisions of the Declaration is that in spite of the absence of Nagorno Karabakh in the negotiation process the OSCE Minsk Group remains a mediator in the talks. The point is not in its being good or bad, simply there is no other worked-out mechanism yet. It was especially with the help of the OSCE Minsk Group that the conflict did not enter a «hot» phase.

Signing of the Declaration was accelerated by the «five-day» war of Georgia against South Ossetia. In spite of the burning desire of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Russia displayed complete unwillingness to resign from the Region. Moreover, unleashing a war is especially dangerous for the side that declares it and Ilham Aliyev realizes it perfectly. Naturally, should it declare war against Nagorno Karabakh, Russia would not interfere. Well, in any case the Nagorno-Karabakh Defence Army is in no need of assistance. It absolutely manages to defend its borders and Baku knows it well. At a recent Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting representatives of Azerbaijan once again began listing their military equipment, the volume of gas and oil export, etc. On this account, experts of the Armenian delegation wished Azerbaijan well-being and prosperity but they also noticed that however rich in oil and gas Azerbaijan might be, most of its population live in poverty, and for nearly 20 years miserable refugees have been nestling in tent camps, embodying the martyr Azerbaijan.

But let us revert to the Declaration. Clause 5 says: “The parties find it important to encourage conditions that will contribute to the consolidation of trust, within the framework of efforts aimed at settling the conflict.” This must be the most difficult point to realize, since anti-Armenian hysteria in Azerbaijan, heated and openly provoked by the authorities can be overcome only after generations and only on the condition that it is immediately put an end to. This hysteria has its reasons: Azerbaijan is a poly-ethnic republic and the image of a «common external enemy» still helps the authorities to preserve the integrity of their country. Thus, when Baku speaks of the territorial integrity of the country, it realizes that not only Nagorno Karabakh will become independent. Talishes, Lezgins, and Udins will also demand independence. They are all compactly living on their land and were once joined to Azerbaijan at the will of Stalin and Narimanov.

Be that as it may, thaw seems to have emerged in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. On the one hand, the desire of Turkey and Iran to take part in the process causes some anxiety since both these countries are extremely interested in Azerbaijan and Armenia. On the other hand, however, the OSCE Minsk Group would hardly like to draw new players into this game. In any case a pretty interesting situation is taking shape in the South Caucasus, after which the region may finally change both in borders and in the quantity of states.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan

http://www.panarmenian.net/details/eng/?nid=948

[jgk3]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It would be dangerous even for Russia to allow the trend of self determination to go too far in the South Caucasus, regardless of whether its in Georgia or in Azerbaijan. I'm sure Russia considers this in its attitude toward Azerbaijan. Outright forcing of Azerbaijan to recognizing Artsakh would be a strong push towards making agendas of self-determination by minorities more feasible. This could prove disastrous for Russia in particular, it's not in their interests to experience another Soviet style collapse regarding loss of federated territories.

[Federate]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Former NKR Foreign Affairs Minister – “We must always remember that 15% of the territories on which the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was proclaimed remains under Azeri control.”

[ 03 November 2008 | 18:51 ] politics |

At the request of Hetq, Former Foreign Minister of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) Masis Mayilyan has kindly agreed to comment on the November 2nd tripartite Declaration signed in Moscow by the Presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia regarding the Karabakh conflict settlement process.- Mr. Mayilyan, what are your comments regarding this Declaration and how would you evaluate its significance?

- The agreed to Declaration can be viewed as a balanced document. The Russian mass media has already noted that it is the first such document to be signed by the Presidents of the conflict nations in the past 14 years. The clear difference is that previous documents were agreed to in a format of full value; with the participation of the NKR’s official representatives.

What I find of positive value in the Declaration is the preservation of the OSCE Minsk Group’s status as mediator, the intent to seek a political settlement to the conflict. The implementation of concrete confidence building steps will show the extent to which the sides are prepared to “…facilitate improvement of the situation in the South Caucasus and establish stability and security in the region…”

What is important is that we’ve received a certain possibility of a “time-out” and it is vital to effectively use the opportunity to mobilize the resources of Armenia, Artsakh and the Diaspora with the aim of confronting and averting all potential scenarios of the conflict settlement that present a danger to our nation. It is just these issues, the defense of the territories, preserving our national identity and other similar questions, that require national unity and that each component of the nation play its vital role.

- Mr. Mayilyan, what is your approach to the issue of the liberated territories and the possible stationing of international peacekeepers in the Karabakh settlement zone?

- I’ve had a position on these questions for quite some time and have publicly stated them more than once. Let me repeat them once again. Without doubt, the question of the territories is the most important element for our society in terms of the security of the people of Artsakh and for the implementation and defense of their right to exercise state independence. Official Baku frequently issues statements based on international recognition of the republic of Azerbaijan, employing the expression “internationally recognized border” whenever it wants to its benefit; something which doesn’t correspond to reality.

It is important to note that in international law the recognition of a state doesn’t automatically signify the recognition of the borders that the state in question has declared for itself. International experience shows that border delineation between neighboring countries can only occur only is the countries mutually recognize each others state independence. If international recognition as to the parties’ legal entity status and national independence is lacking any attempt to resolve territorial border delineation issues is not based on legal norms.

I believe that what will be discussed will not be the clarification of the borders of the territories but rather the clarification of the borders between the NKR and the Republic of Azerbaijan. As regards to questions of delineation of the de-facto borders existing between the NKR and Azerbaijan, the work of an intergovernmental committee can proceed only in the event that Azerbaijan recognizes the independence of Artsakh.

During the border delineation process it is also necessary to proceed with the keeping the territorial realities as laid out in the NKR Constitution in mind, that the only standard for the NKR can be the imperative to safeguard the physical security of the citizens of Artsakh and the right to state independence.

It is completely clear to me that our country cannot develop on its own and safeguard its strategic and foodstuff security within the enclave borders of former the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region; borders that were illegitimate from the start. In discussing the question of the territories and borders, we must always remember the fact that 15% of the territories on which the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was proclaimed remains under Azeri control.”

Regarding the issue of the possible placement of international forces in the conflict zone designed to preserve the peace, I believe that the appearance of armed forces in the NKR, even if they arrive under the flag of the most authoritative of international organizations, will unavoidably lead to radical restrictions on our sovereignty.

The fact that the sovereignty of the NKR hasn’t been recognized by the international community and that we aren’t represented in those structures might result in our country not being able to exercise any legally authorized levers on those powers. In such conditions the possible placement of peacekeeping forces alluded to in Point 3 of the November 2nd Declaration would fundamentally be in opposition to our national interests. We cannot afford to place restrictions on our national sovereignty by not receiving its comprehensive recognition.

Anahit Danielyan

http://today.hetq.am/en/politics/masis-mailyan/