Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

The Kirkuk Cheyhan pipeline is sabotaged fairly regularly and it does not appear to create much noise.
Minimum we can do with regards BTC is to sabotage it and then deny access to repair by sniper or artillery.
No need to uproot the whole pipeline.

It is sabotaged by what is been successfully labeled as a terrorist organization….do we want that label pinned on NKR forces? Now if Turkey attacks Armenia proper then I say all bets are off, the pipeline gets it.

SO WHAT !! Armenia was not party to that.

Political backing is half the battle that cannot be ignored.

With regards destroying infrastructure I am sure it is built in the war scenarios with all necessary political consequences considered.
It may well be the first target, to avoid pissing about with piplines.

You cannot build an oil processing infrastructure and for it to be bomb proof. The oil storage tanks will burst and the plants will burn uncontrollably. Their only defense is ground to air missiles and MIG 29s which must be avoided at all cost.

Unfortunately one has to fight with what one has.

Like I said Armenia can pull this off with its current the Airforce but it is apparent that Armenia does not invest as much as it can on airpower and relies mostly on Russian air defense structures. That needs to change drastically in my view.
Also we need to increase our own weapons manufacturing capabilities 10 fold! nothing is more precious than that. Why is Iran feared? Not because of its growing military power but because Iran is doing this using its own emerging defense industry instead of buying everything and not even have the technical knowledge to maintain it without the suppliers help.
That is the direction I like to see. Armenia is doing this BTW but I like to see it grow further.

arakertzig: you are right, NKR forces can create situations that will discourage investor confidence in Azerbaijan. That happened back in 1992 and it is one of the reasons why Azeris are not attacking.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Turkey can setup a indiscriminate shelling of Artsakh from Nakishevan under Azeri disguise and this time it will not stop no matter what we say.

You really think Turkey is stupid enough to do this? That would give the right to Armenia to defend itself, including controlling Nakhchevan again. Besides, if they want to drag in other OSTO countries into this, like russia, then they're insane.

[araratsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You really think Turkey is stupid enough to do this? That would give the right to Armenia to defend itself, including controlling Nakhchevan again. Besides, if they want to drag in other OSTO countries into this, like russia, then they're insane.

They might try it and see if Russia gets involved then say that it was a renegade soldier and they didnt want to do this

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

You really think Turkey is stupid enough to do this? That would give the right to Armenia to defend itself, including controlling Nakhchevan again. Besides, if they want to drag in other OSTO countries into this, like russia, then they're insane.

Hey I said that not Londontsi

Russia may not jeopardize its good relations with Turkey over this. As long as Russian troops are not attacked, such a move by Turkey will have only political implication and NKR forces will have to content with another front (sort of speak), however it does give justification to move into Nakishevan…can we do it is another story.
Remember Armenia is not really supposed to get involved physically in a war between NKR and Azerbaijan but we know better. There will be limited involvement to say the least.

[KarotheGreat]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Hey I said that not Londontsi

Russia may not jeopardize its good relations with Turkey over this. As long as Russian troops are not attacked, such a move by Turkey will have only political implication and NKR forces will have to content with another front (sort of speak), however it does give justification to move into Nakishevan…can we do it is another story.
Remember Armenia is not really supposed to get involved physically in a war between NKR and Azerbaijan but we know better. There will be limited involvement to say the least.

But the thing is, I don't see how Turkey can guarantee that non of it's shells will land on Armenian soil. That would mean a deceleration of war towards Armenia. In that Russia has to intervene for it's own sake or else it could lose it's only base in the Caucasus. So I don't see Turkey getting involved directly in a war but will keep supporting the Azeris every way they can.

[arakeretzig]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Hey I said that not Londontsi

Russia may not jeopardize its good relations with Turkey over this. As long as Russian troops are not attacked, such a move by Turkey will have only political implication and NKR forces will have to content with another front (sort of speak), however it does give justification to move into Nakishevan…can we do it is another story.
Remember Armenia is not really supposed to get involved physically in a war between NKR and Azerbaijan but we know better. There will be limited involvement to say the least.

Just to add an important point to this.

"On February 4, 2009, an agreement to create the Collective Rapid Reaction Force (KSOR) was reached by five of the seven CSTO members, with plans finalized on June 14, 2009. The force is intended to be used to repulse military aggression, conduct anti-terrorist operations, fight transnational crime and drug trafficking, and neutralize the effects of natural disasters." from AAF wikipedia.

And

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20090204/119984654.html

And

http://asbarez.com/75043/armenia-russia-sign-arms-export-deal-2/

"Ohanian was reported to say earlier this week that Armenia expects direct military assistance from the CSTO in the event of another war with Azerbaijan. That Yerevan can count on such support was confirmed by the CSTO’s secretary-general, Nikolay Bordyuzha, in August."

[Eddo211]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But the thing is, I don't see how Turkey can guarantee that non of it's shells will land on Armenian soil. That would mean a deceleration of war towards Armenia. In that Russia has to intervene for it's own sake or else it could lose it's only base in the Caucasus. So I don't see Turkey getting involved directly in a war but will keep supporting the Azeris every way they can.

Turks can be very cunning...........they have excuse for anything and they are masters of passing the buck. If there was a trophy for that they would win it.
However many do agree with you that Turkey will not risk such a move unless they have a very good reason. NKR attacking their immediate interests might give them that leverage, but again political fall out for them will be great. It is interesting to note that Aliyev has asked Turkey to open military bases in Azerbaijan and Georgia has approved such a move. Will Turkey do this or can they convince the Russians and the West that such a move will guarantee protection of their interests I don’t know.

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/politics/news/6571/

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

Hey I said that not Londontsi

Thank you for saving my honor !!

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

It is sabotaged by what is been successfully labeled as a terrorist organization….do we want that label pinned on NKR forces? Now if Turkey attacks Armenia proper then I say all bets are off, the pipeline gets it.

I implied sabotage during a war ( that would not be considered as terrorism ) as a retaliation target. I also suggested use of artillery for denial of access.

[londontsi]

Re: Nagorno-Karabagh: Military Balance Between Armenia & Azerbaijan

But the thing is, I don't see how Turkey can guarantee that non of it's shells will land on Armenian soil. That would mean a deceleration of war towards Armenia.

I am not sure one has to wait until a shell falls on Armenian soil before a state of war to exist.
You cannot lob shells over a country onto a third country.
The question has to be what can Armenia do about it.
This is where its alliance would be tested.

Only the US can do such thing, if you remember cruse missiles overflying Pakistan to hit targets in Afghanistan.

Even that caused a huge row.